1

2004 39

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 39

. . . .................................................................... 3
........................................................................... 4
................................................................................................... 5
FIBO ................................................................................................................................. 7
TeleTRADE D.J. ............................................................................................................. 11
. ForexTrader. ................................................................ 13
AUDUSD - Silver-channel ......................................................... 18
.................................................................................. 20
USD/JPY: - ...................................... 22
, 4 ............................................................................................................. 25
....................................................................................................... 26
............................................................................................................. 29
.................................................................................................................................. 33
............................................................................................................................. 36
........................................................................................................... 38
....................................................................................................................................... 40

FOREX MAGAZINE

www.alpari-idc.ru
(095) 29-111-29

.
"FOREX MAGAZINE" .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 . . .

2004 39

. .
VIII- "".

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""

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 39

FOREX Review

(msk)

18.10.2004

13

HICP (.) Y/Y

2.20%

2.20%

+64.0 .

+65.0 .

.
18.10.2004

17

- .

. , .
19/10/2004

13.00

M/M

+0.4 %

+0.5 %

. , .
19/10/2004

13.00

Y/Y

+2.4 %

+2.5 %

. , .
19/10/2004

16.30

CPI M/M

+0.1 %

+0.2 %

. , .
19/10/2004

16.30

CPI . . M/M

+0.1 %

+0.2 %

. , .
19/10/2004

16.30

2.000 .

1.950 .

1.952 .

1.950 .

11-16.10

352,000

345,000

-0.30%

-0.10%

13.4

19

0.90%

0.40%

3.60%

3.50%

.
19/10/2004

16.30

.
20/10/2004

12.30

BoE 6-7.10
!

21/10/2004

16.3

.
21.10.2004

16.3

M/M

.
21.10.2004

20

.
22.10.2004

12.3

(.) Q/Q

3 .

, .
22.10.2004

12.3

(.) Y/Y

3 .

. , .
.
22.10.2004
13
. M/M

-0.60%
0.80%
- . -
.
22.10.2004
13
. Y/Y

5.40%
6.00%
. .

www.forexreview.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

, ,

.
, . , .
,
. , . :
/ 1.2430. . -
, ,
,
.

ZEW,
. .
, ,
, , .. (
, , ) .

, ,
.
, ,
.

2004 39

. , ,
, .
.
,
,
54 . .
,
, Impair State. 17.43, 25.0.

, . , 0.6%.
, . /
1.2475, / 1.8035, /
109.20.

, . , ,
(). ,
,
25 ,
USD/CAD. 20, 21 22
,
.

:
,
. , ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 39

. , .
,


. .
, , , , . - ,
,
.. , . , ,
, . ,
1.2500 /
. , , , , - .
- , .
.
, /, / (
/ 1.2250,
/ 1.7780-7800),
,
. ,
, , : /
1.2300-1.2650, /
1.7820-1.8220; /
107.00, ,
, 110.20.

ForexMagazine
http://www.fxclub.org

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 39

FIBO

FOREX FIBO

, , , .
,
18.00 87.00.

,
,
. .

, .

15,000 352,000 ( 5,000).
340,000-350,000, 5,000 .
.

, 50.55
. ( ) 54.0 .
.
2.5% $150.1 .

11.3%. , 87.35,
.
,

, ,
.
0.1%, 0.3%.
1.1%.
0.1%, 0.1%
0.3%.
77.2%. 0.2%,
,
5.9% .

, , .
1.5%, 0.6%. .
0.2%.
-
0.7%, . 1.0%. .
,
,
-
17.4 28.34 . , , ,
.
- ,
,
. , ,
-

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

2004 39

.
,
,
2.0%. 10
,
.
, .
87.00 . 86.50
86.00.
. ,

,
. ,
, ,
.
,
.
87.60, 88.00, 88.80.
.
1.2465
.
EUR/USD 1.2500,
1.2506.
EUR/USD ,
EZ.
- ,

, ,
. EZ

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

, .
EZ 2.3%,
, , .
ZEW ,
, . ZEW
31.3 38.4 . 1.9%,
2.1%.
- 464 . 2.45 .
.
.

EZ,
. , , ,

. , EZ . , , , ,
EZ.
, , EUR/USD
( 1.2465) ,
, .

.
-, ,
.
, , .

2004 39

, . ,
, EUR/USD. EZ ,
,
EUR/USD
1.2520.
EUR/USD
1.2605. . EUR/USD 1.2310, 1.2220, 1.2140.
. GBP/
USD 65 1.8040. .
, .
0.3% 3.1%
.
1.3% 7.4%
.
0.4%
3.1% . 0.1%, 1.1%, 1.3%.
, 1.1%
1.0%-2.0% ,
.
, .
200 , , ,
5,000. 6,100 2,100.
2.7% " ".
, .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

, , , , .

,
4.75%,

.
GBP/USD 1.8140, 1.8280/00.
,

1.8470.
,
.
GBP/USD
1.7740-1.8140.
. USD/JPY
. , , .
USD/JPY ,
110.20
,
108.80. ,
,


.
,
. 15.3% 806,3 . .
11.4% 4,57 . , 19,4%
3,76 . , . , ,
,
.
, 14 .
2.3%
,

10

2004 39

, .

467,5 . ,
. ,
, .. , .
,
, 0.1%, 0.3%. 46.1 49.2 ,
.
,
,
, .

65.0, 72.2,
- 35.0 38.8.
, 3-6 . , 50, 16
.

,
, USD/JPY
108.70 111.00.
,
. .
USD/JPY ,
.
USD/JPY 107.10,
111.50.

FIBO
Forex Magazine
http://www.fibo-forex.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 39

TeleTRADE D.J.

TeleTRADE D.J.
.
.
. EUR/USD
8
1.2490.

, .
WTI $54.45 .

EUR/USD
1.2465.
30 1.20.
EUR/USD 1.2500
1.2365.
, GBP/USD
USD/JPY 50 .

.

. Industrial
production 1.9% 0.2%.
, ZEW
31.3 38.4 .
EUR/USD 1.2300,

.

.
. . GBP/USD 1.7922, .

11

, , ,

EUR/USD
1.2300. 21- .

, , , , , . 14
. 16 .

100 ,
" " 53.50/54.00 .
14 .
EUR/USD 1.2300 1.2250, 1.2350, .
GBP/USD 1.7840,
1.7922.
USD/JPY
109.45-110.25.

.
- $54.0
. $50.5 . -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 TeleTRADE D.J.

$96 . ($150 .).

,
50-60
EUR/USD 1.2440. , ,
.
. " "
$54.88
-
.

,

, .
.
16.30 .
1.5%
0.2%. 6 .
0.1%,
. PPI
0.3%
0.2%.
,
-. , . 17.43
27.26 . 17.65
20.29 ,
59.17 52.03, 6 61.3 62.44 .

12

2004 39

,
. EUR/USD 40 ,
.
17.15
.
(+0,1%)
, . EUR/USD
1.2500.
18.10-22.10



.
.
- . - . III .

-, .
,
.
,
-
TeleTRADE D.J. Trust Com & Securities Ltd.

E-mail: analitics@trust-com.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 39

. ForexTrader.

-
-
(www.forextrader.ru), ,

. -
, Forex.

FOREX
18-22.10.2004

FOREX, MSK

10:00-12:00
16:30-22:30

12:30-15:30

12:30-15:00
16:30-22:30

10:30-15:00

16:30-21:30
. ,
,
, -
1,3 . , -, , ,
.

- ,
FOREXTRADER http://www.forextrader.ru/ .

13

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 39

ForexTrader

EUR
:

.
16-30
. .
12-30 - - ,
.
12-30
16-30 Philadelphia Fed index .
- , .
-. 1230 GDP ,
.

,
. 4 (1,1233-1,0307),
5 . . 5
- 1.3925-1.5600.

3 1,2624-1,3000 ( ), 4- 1,2318-1,2259 (
), 5 1,3087.

14

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader

2004 39

CHF

17.10.04.

15

4 1.3256-1.5000. CHF
0,5086 - 5 , - .
3
1,0511-0,6324 .

CHF 17.10.04.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 39

ForexTrader

GBP

4 1.7180-1.5855.

: 1,71751,6578, - 5 -
2,0053-2,1636.

JPY

GBP 17.10.04.

16

,
3 95,76,
4 114-85-120,00
- . - 5 84,58-66,07.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader

JPY .
.

2004 39

JPY
17.10.04
,
FOREXTRADER.RU
E-mail: trader_karlo@mail.ru

17

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

18

2004 39

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

2004 39

- ( ):
Silver-channel
!
Silver-channel 4-
AlexSilver
Silver-channel Daily
www.viac.ru
Silver-channel Weekly
CFD

-
Silver-channel , .
. .

19

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 39

. ? ,
, ,
, , . ,
,
, . ,
. , (430.00-431.00). , , ,
.
.
, .
, .
. , .

20

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 39

.
, ,
, (50).
, (415.00-418.00) 410.00, , 407.00, 428.00.

!
:
E-mail: eduard@viac.ru
www.viac.ru

21

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 39

USD/JPY: -

USD/JPY: ?
(, ) () USD/JPY. ,
, 34-38 FOREX MAGAZINE.
, .

?
? ? , "" , . - , , .
, . , - 108.75, , . , , , , "" ""
, 108.75, , - , .
. , ,
,

. ,
,

-

.
,
, USD/
JPY.
107.00,

,
,
108.75.
-

22

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 39

USD/JPY: -

103.40-105.00, . ,
USD/JPY. , .
. - () , 115.00.
/, .

USD/JPY:
"" .
"" .
, 108.75 . , , . 108.00-20
. , .
108.75.
107- ( ) . ,
-
200

, , " "

108.75

110.20-40
, ..

.
100

() - "" .

23

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 USD/JPY: -

2004 39

/, .

108.75-109.20

111.50-75 , 108.00-15 ,
2002

110.00-40

115.00

107.00

120.00-121.00 - 2003

103.00-105.00 -
FOREX MAGAZINE
:
VIAC.ru
vmn@viac.ru
http://www.viac.ru

24

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 , 4

2004 39

, 4
,
,
, , " ",
,
, , .
, , , - -,
, - -,
.
,
"" , .
,
,
.
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25

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,
. , ,
,
.

, .
, "" , , ,
. ,
, , , .
, , ,


( )
http://www.mabico.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 39

, "Bloomberg News"

,
,
?
,
15 , , , , .
,
,
, .
, , ,
.

18
, ,
.

C- , ,
. , , ,
, .
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26

www.bloomberg.com
", .
" ".

, , .
" ,
", .
,
1979.
.
,
" 25 1979."
, , ,
- , 10.8% 1982. .

", , 1970-
", . "
, : ,
(, , ), , , , , , ".
" ,

, ,
, , , ", .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

, ,
,
3.7%, ,
. , ,
, .
1987.

, ,
,
. , "-
" , ,
:
.
,
,

.
, ,
, , -
. ,
- -
.
, C- , " . ".

" , ", , - " , ".
,
,

27

2004 39

, , .
" , ", .
, ,
, , , , .
, ,
,

.

" , ,
, , ,

", .
, , " "

.
" , ,
, ,
1%, ,
, 2 - 2.5%", .
,
. ,
, .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 39

,
, .
:


, , .
,
?
Forex Magazine
www.bloomberg.com

28

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 39

. - , . -. .
" " 2003.,
50
.
, , ,
" ".
, .
,
, .
, ,

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,
,
.
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29

www.turtletrader.com
, , .
, , ,
.

. . ,
.

. .
,
. , . ,
, , 25.000$ , ,
,
(, , ) 90% .

.
, . , , , , . , ,
,
- .

,
(,
5 ) , (50 ). ,
,
. -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

,
, ,
.

,
, . ,
, . , , ,
, , .

, ,
, . .
,

, . ,
-
.
.
-
,
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:

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.

30

2004 39

, . , , , , . , ,
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,
.

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. ,
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,
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.

.
, , .
,
,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

.
- , ,
- ,
.
, .

? , ,
, :
1. , , -
- , .
,
, , ,
- . " ,
".
.
2. .

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3. .

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, ,

31

2004 39

.
4. , . , , ,
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,
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5. . - ,
.
,
, ,
.
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6. . . "",
- . ""
,
, ,
, .. ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 39

.
7. . - , , , .
, , .
- ,
, . "" ,
, .
: ,
,
, ,
, , ,
, . , , ,
- .
Forex Magazine
www.turtletrader.com

32

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 39

www.screamingquote.com
,
, .
- , .. -
.
( . ). ,
. , , , , .
,
, .
,
,
10- 1960. "
". ,

(ATR). , : ,
ATR. , , ,
,
(ATR).
ATR "
" 1978.
, ,
.
(TR) :

33

1. ;
2. : ;
3. :
.
/ , , . / ,
,
, .
,
,
, . ,
.


. , 10-
ATR
10 .
10- ATR.
10 . , , , ATR EMA ATR.
:
= EMA (, x) + ( * ATR (y))
= EMA (, x) - ( * ATR (y))
:
x = ( ) EMA
=
y = ( ), ATR

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 39

, EMA ATR
, . ,

ATR, EMA .
20 EMA 2.5, .
,
,

. , ,
-
, .. , .
, , .
, .
,
( , ).
MACD ,
, ,
MACD . , , ,
MACD .

2003. - (, , ).
. , , , ,
, MACD, , 80 .

"Russell Midcap Value

iShare" (IWS). ,
,
.
,
IWS .
,
29 2003. MACD, , 29 -

34

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

, , .
, , 80.
,
,
. , 29
2003., , , , . ,
, , 80.
29 2003.,
, MACD,
( ).
, , RSI (14). , , . :
RSI (14) 70 .
31 2003., RSI (14) 70
, , .

35

2004 39

RSI (14)
70 .
,
, , , ,
, ,
,
.
,
, "" . , ,
, ,

, .
: .
Forex Magazine
: www.screamingquote.com

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 39

www.screamingquote.com
, , 53$ (B), -, ,
. , ,

,
48.50$, (C).

V- , .

, , ,
,
, , , .
. ,
, .
, ,
,
. , , ,
, . ,
,
, .
V-
,
, ,
, -, (
). ,
57$, ,
40- 55$ (A).

36

:
47$, 10.400$
. . ,
51$ (D).
51$:
1 55$
1.600$*1 = + 1.600$
2 53$
800$*2 = + 1.600$
4 48.50$
1.000$*4 = - 4.000$
:
- 800$
, ,
.
. 53$ (E).
53$:
1 55$
800$*1 = + 800$
2 53$
0$*2 = 0
4 48.50$
1.800$*4 = - 7.200$
:
- 6.400$
,
, ,
. ,
50.50$,
. ; .
, . , , ,
, ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 39

- ,
,
.

,
, .
, , (A), (B),
(C) , " " 16
. , .

,
. , , ,
. , , ,
. ,

.
Forex Magazine
: www.screamingquote.com

37

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 39

www.stockcharts.com
, "
" (BARR)
, ,
. ,
1997.
" " "
".
" " BARF. , ""
" ". : ,
.
.

1. : , 1 ( ) ,
. ,
.
. , , , .
, .

38

, 30-45 .
( semi-log )
. ,
, .
2. :
,
. ,

50% ,
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, .
3. : , ,
. , "" , .

, ,

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. (. )
4. : ,
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, .
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.
5. :
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. , , .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

6. : ,
. , .
, .
7. : , , ,
. , ,
.
" "
, . , , ,
. ,
, .

2004 39

3- 99. 2000.

.

,
, 34 .
,
.

,
.
51 , 50% ,
.

13.
38.

.

132,
. 115 ( ) .

67 ,
.
95, .

Forex Magazine
www.stockcharts.com

"Level Three Communications"

" " ,
2000.
72 132 2 , ,
, .

39

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 39

.
- , "
", " 2" " ",
- " ".

. , , , ,
.
, , , .
, " ",
. " ".
, ,
60- , ( 25% ).

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6- 2001. "Imclone Sistems" (IMCL),
, ,
60- .
, IMCL , 60- , . , , -

- .
,

, , 60- ,

25% . ( , ).
,

, .
. ( )

40

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

. "Soup NaziTM", ,
14- , .
, 14- , , 4
, .
: (A)
14 (B);
(C) 1-2-3 ( 10- 20- ) 7 ; (D) 1-2-3 50- , 7 ; (E) 3- .

2004 39

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 39

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42

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004