Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 272

()

. .


-


,
()

2012

327
66.4
12
:
. . ,
. .

12

. .
: . /
. . . .: , 2012. 272 .
ISBN 9785756706437

. ,

,
,
, .
, , - .
, , .
, , -, - .
327
66.4

ISBN 9785756706437

. ., 2012
.
, 2012


. . . . . .
. . . . . .
16.01.2012. 60901/16. NewtonC.
. . . . 17,0. 1200 .
. 111141, , , . 8.
E-mail: info@aspectpress.ru; www.aspectpress.ru.
.: (495)306-78-01, 306-83-71

143200, , . , 93.
www.oaompk.ru, www.oao. .: (495) 745-84-28, (49638) 20-685

www.aspectpress.ru

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7
1
:

1.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.2.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2. 2000- . . . . . .
2.1. . . . .
2.2. .
2.3. . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

.
.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.

. 36
. 36
. 42
. 51
. 55

2
:

3. 1990- . . . . . . . . . 58
3.1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
3.2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
4.
4.1.
4.2.
4.3.

: . . . . . . . . . .
. . .
.
. . . . . . . . . . .

5. . . . . . . .
5.1. : .
5.2. :
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.

. 83
. 83
. 93
103

. . . . . . 112
. . . . . . 112
. . . . . . 122
. . . . . . 132

3

6.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
6.1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
6.2. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
7. :
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7.1.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7.2. .
7.3. -
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . 159
. . . . . 160
. . . . . 169
. . . . . 185

8. :
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8.1. 2008 .
8.2. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.

199
199
211
222

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
- (19922011). . . . 253



, , ,
. ,
1990- 2000- ,
.


- ( , , ,
, , ,
, ,
.).


,
.

, , ,

, .

(., 2002).


,
,
(
). 5

, , - ,
, .
,
,

, .
, I .
,
. . /

.
-
, 1989 .
, , ,

, ,
. - . . , . . . . . .
. . .


,
, - , ,
I ., .


, ,
( )
,
, .
,
, .
, , , ,
,
.
, ,
,
.
-
.
, 1. ,
;
, ; ,
.

, ,
. , , .

7

, .

- (
), . ,
.
. ,
- ,
() . , , ,
2001 , .

, , ,
, , .
, ,
. .
.
1970-
2.

;
, , .
, ,
,
,
8

(, ,
, ..).
, , , . , , ., ,

, .
, ,
,

. , .
, ,
,
, , .

, .
. , - ,
.


3. , .
.
, ,
, , ,

. . ,
. , , .
9

( ) ,
.
. , ,
( ) , 4.
, .

,
, .
: ,
, 5.
,
,
-, .
,
. , , .


,

.

, ,
, , (!), . ,
. , , ,
6.

, 10

, , , , .
, ( ),
,
.

, , , , , ,
, .


. -., , . , ,
, . -.
. ,
,
, , ,
.
. ,

,

. 2008 . , .
.
I .
- , ,
,
. ,
11

, , . , ,
. .
, -
, , .
,
, , .
I . - ,

. , , ,

. , ,
.
, ,
. ,
,
.

,
, .

12

1
:


,

. .

. ,
,
, 1990- ,
2000- , .

1.1.
1990- ,
. , , ( ), ,
: -
. 1990- -

.

14

1.

.
,
.
, , .
, , , ,
.
. . , .
7.
, . .
,
( ):
( , , ),

. , , ,
8.
. . , , ,
,
. () ,
, . .
( )
9.
,
15

1. :

. ,
10.
, . . .
,
(1);
(2);
(3);
(4); - (5)11.
, ,
(
, ).
, polarity.

, , ()
. , , , ,
, , , .., ..
, - , . ,
- . ,
( ),
.

,
.
( )
16

1.

. ,
. ,
, .
,
., .
, , ()
. , , ; , , .
, ,
, ,
. .
- .
, , 1980- 1990- 12.
. . ,
, , . ,
:
, . ( /
) , .


-, (, ),
17

1. :

( ).
,
13.
,
, .
, , . ( )
, , , -
( ).
, , , , , ( ).
,
, , ,
, ,
. ,
, , ,
.
:
, ,
, ,
. , ,
14,
,
.
, , , .
18

1.

- ,
, , , , , , , , .
, , ,

, , .
- (
, , . ,
1970- 15),

.

:
,

. , , , ,
, , .
, ,
, .
,
, , -,

.

,
.

- I .,
. -
, 1990- ,
, .
19

1. :

. , , . :
() ,
: ,
16.

, ,
(
). - ( , ).
, ,
, . ( ,
), ,
(, , , , ), .
- ( ).
(
), (, , ,
).
, (
) -
?
, , . ,
,
20

1.

,

, ,
, , (, , , , ..).

, . ,
.
,
, ( ).
I .
1990- , - ,

. ,

, , (
), .
,
-
(
),
.

, .
( )
, , ( )17.
21

1. :

,
, -
.
, -
, ,
/ , .
( )
, ,
,
. , 18. ,
-
, , ,
, . , ,
,
.
, , , 30, 20 10 .
,
,
, , .
,

.
.
,
( ) ,
, ( ,
) ( ), 22

1.


(, , ,
, ,
, -, ).
,
,
/ .

, . ,
.
,
.
, , I .
,
, ,
.
, (
,
).
, . (),
, ,

. ,
,
. , ( - ),
2050 ., 23

1. :

19.
.
,
(. 1).
1

+
+/
+/
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

+/

+/
+/
+/
+/
+/

+/
/+

+/

+/
+/
+/
+/
+/

+/

+
+
+

+/
/+

/+

+
+

+
/+
+/
/+
+
+
+

,
,
. , , ;
.
, ,
-
( , )
,
2006 .,
.

, .
. , 24

1.

,
. , , ,
, (, , ),
., , , , , .

, ,
, , , . , ,
, , , , , .
, ,
, , . ,

. . ,

, ,
. ,
. .

, -
.
,
, ,
, , . I ., ,
25

1. :

, : ,
, .

. , ,
,
,
( ) , .

1.2.


,
20. 1980-
- ,
, 1945 .

, ,
. .
, (
, ) ,

.

,
, , ,
, 21. , -
22.
, , ,
. 26

1.

1980-
,

.
. ,
, ..
,
.
, , ,
( ,
), 23.
, 1980- , ,

,
, .
.

.
, , ,

, , , , , ,
24. , ,
, 25.
,
27

1. :

,
.
, . ,
.
, , .
,
,
. , ,
, ad hoc26.
() :
-
( ), , -

27.
, , 2000- . 1990-
: ,
, .

. ,
,
.

: (
) .
1) ; 2)
28

1.

; 3) - .

.
. ,
,
, .
( , ) ,
28.
1990- ,
, ,

, -
29. ,
,
.

, .
. ,
, , ,
,
. , ,
, , , ,
. , , ,
.

,
29

1. :

,
.

.
, . .
( ). , , .
,
, ( ): , , , ; , , , ;
, , , , .. , .
(
) ( ) , , .

. , 2000- .
,
,
. . , . ,
. ,
, 1945
1991 ., ,
30

1.

. ,
, . . ,


. ,
, , ,
XIX .,
, ,
30.
, 1991 . , ..
, ()
31.
, , , . . :

-,
. 32,
.

. ,
,
. ,
,
33.
, ,
(
1998 ., 2002 .).
1990- ,
. . ,
31

1. :

, 1648
,
. , .
,
,
(!)34.
. . 2000- ,
. ,
,
, , . , ,
, , , . ,

,
.
, ,
, , ,
35.
( ) , -
. /
. .
, , , .
, ,
. , . , . . , ,
- 32

1.

, , 36.

1950- ,
. . , ,
1991 ., ,
37. , . , -
, - .
. . , , ,
, , , ,
38. . , ,
39.
,
, , ,
,
, ,
,
. .
. ,
20252050 . , I .
, 40.
. ,
: ( ),
( ), ( ). , ,
33

1. :

, . .
, , ,

.
, . ,
, . , , , , , , .

. , , ,
, ,
, 41.
,


, . , . . ,
,
(-), ,
( ),

. , ,
. ( )
( )
,
,
42.
. . , 1990-
,
. -
- ( ) , ,
34

1.

, ( ).
, 43.
. . , . .

. ,

- .
( ) , ,
44.
.
, . , , ,
I .

35


2000-

2000- ,
, ,
,
,
.

, , ,
, ,
.

2.1.
2000- 1990- . ,
,
,
( , )
45. . , 1990- 2000-
. , ( :
), ( ),
.
, 36

2. 2000-

( , ) . .
(Functioning Core) , .. ,
(Non-Integrating Gap). , ,
, ( ), , , , , ,
, , , , 4 6 .
(
), . . . ,
, , ,
, -
()
46.

,
, ,
2001 . ,
,
. ,
, . . -.
.
,
,

. ,
, .
, ,

37

1. :

.
,
, -,

47.
. :

, . , , ,
, 48.
. /
( ),

,
.
. . ,
, .
, ,
.
, , ,
,
.
, ,

49.
,
- ,
( ),
. 38

2. 2000-

, .
.
() ()
(), ,
. ,
,
,
. .
, , ,
.
, , , ( , ,
, , , , ). , , .
, , , , , , 50.
, , , , , ; , ,
.
, (
)
,
, . , ,
-,
( ) ( ) .
39

1. :


, .
, ,
. , , . , ,
, ..
(
), - .
. , ,
,
, . , ,
, 51.
. .
(. , . , . , . , . .) ,
, . . ,
, , , ,
,

, 52.

,

()
, ,
.
, , 10 (
), .
. . . ,
,
(19861991 .),
.
40

2. 2000-

, 1990- 2000-
,
, , , ( ).
,
,
(. . ),
.
, :
, -,
, , 53.

,
-
. ,
, . ( ) . ,
, .
, ,
, . ,
, , , ,
, , , (
)
. . . , 41

1. :


54.
,
( )
.
. , , ,
, , , , ..
, ,
,
, , . ,
, ,

55. ,
,
-
. ,
, .

2.2.
2000- . ,
, ,
, ,
, .

, 2000- ,
,
.
, , . , 42

2. 2000-

,
, . 1990-

(. ), . (. ),
. , .
. ,

. XXI . , , . ,
,
,
(/ ) : , , . :
?
, . , ,
, . , .
,
, - , , .
: , ,
, .
,
(
), 43

1. :

.
.
, : , .
, , . .
, .
,
.
, .
, 2008 56.
, .
,
. , , . :
1) ,
;
2) ,
( ) , , ;
3) ,
, ;
4) ,
.
. ,
, , , 44

2. 2000-

, . ,
I . , . , , . ,

57.
, , ,
( )
. :
,
, ( . ) ,
, , .
, ,
, .

. , . -
,
, .
. , ,
, , , - ,
, 58.

,
. I .
, ( ) ,
.
45

1. :


: (-) .
. .
,
.., , ,
, () .

( , )
. , , . , .
- ,
, .
,
, , , - .
2008 . ( ),
.
, 59.
, , ,
, ,
, .
.
, (
),
,
. , , , , ,
46

2. 2000-


. , ,
, .
(, ,
), /
.
, . , , . ,
-, ..
, , ,
,
.
,
, , , ?
, ,
,
? ,
, ,
, , , . ,
,
, .
,
, , .. , , , , . ,
, . , ,
47

1. :

, , .
,

. .
, . ,

. ?
, ,
,
,
. ,
.
.
, ,
,
1991 ., . ,

, ,
, .
, , , , , , .
.
, ,
(,
, ). , ,
, -
(bandwagoning)
48

2. 2000-

.
,
,

. ,

, .
,
, ,
. , ,
, .


. , ,
,
,
.
, ,
.
,
,
, - - .
. ,
.

, ,
. 60.
- , 49

1. :

, , , ,
, , , , ( ). ,
: ,

.
, , ,
, .
, , .
,
, ,
, .
, , ,
, ,
, , , ,
,
,
61.
,

. , . ,
:
1) , ;
2) , , ;
3) ,
; ,
,
;
50

2. 2000-

4) , , ,
.
, ,
62.

2.3.
,
: - (
) - () . ,
, .
: , ,
, , ,
. , ,
, .
I . .
,
,
.
, , ,
.

. ,
51

1. :


. ,
,
, .
, . . , . , ,

63.
- ( ),
-, (-
) ,
.
, (
,
), .
,
, , ,
.
, , , ,
. -, . ,
,
.

, , . , ,
, ,
,
. , , , ,
52

2. 2000-

, , , ,
, ,
, , . ,
, ,
- .
,
- .
, , ,
.

, , , ,
. .
, , , ,
.
, , -,
, , -,
, .
,
, ,
, . ,
,
.
, ,
. , .
, ( , )
.
53

1. :

: .

.
( ),
, , , ,
.
,

, (, , ..).
: , .
, ,
,
. . . , I ., :
, (), () ,
,
,
-
, ? -

?64.

, I .
, . . .
, ,
,
, :

, 65.

,
.
54

2. 2000-

I .,
, -
,
. ,
. , , , .
.
I . , ,
, . -
, 2011 . , :
; ,
.


. . . .: , 2005.
. . //
. 2006. 3. . 4. C. . 515. [ ]. : http://www.intertrends.ru.
. .
. .: , 2004.
. . . .: , 1997.
. 569.
. . //
. 2009. 3. . [ ]. :
http://www.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/38/11949.html.
. . : ? // . 2009. 3. . . 7. . 415.
: / . . . . .: , 2009.
. . //
. 2009. 3. . . 7. . 1624.
. . . .: ,
2002. . 2196.

55

1. :
. . - //
. 2006. 1. [ ]. : http://www.
intertrends.ru.
. . // . 2011. 2. . [ ].
: http://www.intertrends.ru.
Halper S. The Beijing Consensus. How Chinas Authoritarian Model Will
Dominate the Twenty-First Century. N.Y.: Basic Books, 2010.
Nye J. Jr. The Future of Power. N.Y.: PublicAffairs, 2011.
Wohlforth W. The Stability of a Unipolar World // International Security. Summer
1999. Vol. 24. No 1. P. 541.
Zakaria F. The Post-American World. N.Y.: Penguin Books, 2008.

2
:


,
. ,
I . . - ,
, :

,
, .
, .
,
.


1990-

3.1.
, , (

), , ,

( -). ,
( ) .

. ,
-, , ,
58

3. 1990-

, .
. . . . , , .
, , , ,
, . ,
, . ,
, ,
, ,
( ) 66.

, .

. , , ,
,
(. , . ), (. ). ,

,
- . , . ,
, , , ,
, , .
1990-
. , , . , , ,
. . ,
59

2. :

1947 . , ,

. ,
, 67.

,

,
. .
,
, , , . , .
1, -
, , .
20082010 . ,
. ( ) ,

,
.
1, , .

,
,

(, );
,
.
60

3. 1990-

: ,
/ , . : , . , ,
.
, , .
. , , , , ..
,
. , , . , . , , , , ,
,
. -, , , , ,
,

.
. ,
. -. . .
, ,
.

( + ), :

-.

, . 61

2. :

,

(, . , . ),
( ) ( )
, .

. :
, , ,
, , . , ,
, .
, . I .
,
,
, ,
. -
, -
,
, , .
.

, , , . : , , , ,
,
, , . , -,
, , ,
, , , .
() , 62

3. 1990-

, ,

.

: ; ,
; .
1993 68. ,
, ,
. 1993
() . . , . , . . . . ,
,
, ,
.
.
:
1) ;
2) , ;
3) ;
4) , 69.
1994 .
(A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement).
, ,
63

2. :

,
,
. , , 1995 .
1996 .70.
. , , ,
.
. ,
1996 . . , .

- , , . . .
. : , ,
, ; , 1
.
,
,
. RAND . , . . 71.
,
:
;
, ,

;
;
64

3. 1990-


;
.
, ,
, ,
. ,
,
, .
1996 .
, , . ,
, .
1996 . .,
.
1997 .
(A National
Security Strategy for a New Century), 72.
:
1) ;
2)
, , ;
3) , ,
;
4) , .
,
.
65

2. :


.

,
, (
) , ,
. , ,
, , . ,
, , , .


().

( ),
.

.
:
, ,
;
;
XXI ., ;

;

, ;
,
.
66

3. 1990-

. , XXI .

. ,
, .

, , (), 1995 .
,
.
, ,
,
.


.
. ,
:
,
, ,
, , ;
, , ,
, , ;

,
;

, ( ) 67

2. :

, .
,

.

, , ( ,
, ), .
.
.
,
-.
1990-
, , ( ), .


,
, .

.

3.2.

,
. ,
.
, -
.
68

3. 1990-

1990- 2000- , , .
,

, ,
, .
, , ,
, ,
,
, .
. , . , . , . ,
. , . , . , . .
- . , . , . , . .
1992 . ,
, . . -.
,
1991 .,
, , ,
,
-.
, . , 1992 ., ,

. , ,
, . : , ,
73.
69

2. :

. -. ,
, , .
,
. 1996 .
.
- .
, , / 74. ,
,
( ), ,
,
.. , , . . , ,
() ()
, ,
. ,
,
1995 . , 1999 . , - ,
, ,
.
,
,
, .

, , .
, ,
, , . ,
, ,
70

3. 1990-

.
, .
, 1996 ., . ,
.
,
. XXI .,
,
, .
. .
, .
, . , , :
. , ,
.
, , , 75.

. ,
. ,
,
.
,
,
, , () ,
.
. ,
, 71

2. :


. . , , ,
; ,
,
; , ,
;
. ,
,
XXI .76
(),
: . ,
,
,
, .
,
, ,
. ,

, , , . , ,
-
, , ,

, , .
. , , , , , ,
, ,
, 72

3. 1990-

, , ,
.
, ,
, . , . , . ,
, ,

. , , , ,
, 77.
,
: ,
.
, ,
, , , .
, , , ,
( ,
), ,
.
.


, (, ), ,
( ).
2000 .

,
,
. , 73

2. :



,
, .

.

,
, , ,
, , .

(. )78
(. )79.
, ( )
,

: ,
, ; , ,
; , ,
;
(
), .
, , ,

. . , ,
, , .
74

3. 1990-

, .
, , . , ,
,
,
:
, 80. . ,
. . , ,
, , .
(global outstretch),
. ,
.

. , 1990- Foreign Policy (
2000- , ). , , , (
) ,
; ,
, , ,
, , ;

; ,
; ,
, ,
. , 1990-
, ,
, ,
- ; 75

2. :

;
,
, 81.
. , ,
, ,
. , , ,
82:
;

,

,
, ;
, ,

, ;
;
;
,
;
,
,
;
, ;
,

;
,
;
76

3. 1990-


( );

-,
,
.
,
,
, .
, , ,
, , , ,
.
,
, , , ,
. ,
, , ,
.
,

: -, , -, ,
, .. 83.
, , , ,
, , , ,
.
77

2. :

. , , , , , ,
,
. ,
, .. ,
. , 1990- , , , ,
.
, ,
, 2000- , 1990-
. -, , , .
, -,
. . ,
,
, .
,
, , , , , 84.

:

. , ,
, , ,
,
85.

,
78

3. 1990-

, ,
.
,
. ,
, , ,
, . ,
, 86.
,
, ()
.

:
1) ,
;
2) () , ,
, ;
3) , , ;
4) ,
, .. .
, , . , 1990- , ,

, ,
(74%). (66%) ,
, , , ,
.
79

2. :

. , , 13%
. 74% ,

87.
. , ,
.
, . . ,
, , .
, ,
,
,
, .

, , , 1990- 62%
6 .
, , ,
, ,
88.
, , , ,
, ,
.
, , ,

89.
. , , .
1950- , 68, . , ,
, ,

80

3. 1990-

.
. . ,
, , ,
90.
, , , .
. . , .

, , ,
( ), 91.
. . ,
,
: ? , ,
, , . , . ,
, ,

, , ,
.

. ,
, , . ,
,
.
, ,
, ,
92.
81

2. :



.

:
, , ,
, ,
;
, , ,
;
,
. , , ;
,

,
;
, ;
;

, , .
2001 .
,
.
82

. -.,
, ,
. . , ,
,
, .

?
, ,
1990- .
.
, , , .

4.1.
2000 . .
. , , ,
.
- .
2000 . - , ,
I . 83

2. :

,
. ,
, ;
,
,
, , , , .
, , , 2000 .
,
.
,
. ,
,
.

, , ,
, ,
, 93.
,

, ,
,
, . ,
, ,

,
I . 94.

( . . ) 84

4. :

, ,


.
( ), ; ;
, , , ;
. ,
, .
, ,
, , , , ( ,
, 1998 .).
, ,

, , .
, , ,
.

.
, ,
,
, .

, , ; 85

2. :

, .
,
.

,
.
, ,
95. 1996 .,
.
, 1998 . . . ( . -.), 2008 .
,
19 1999 .
. . :
, . , , ,
.
.
. 96.

,
1990-
( ).
. . , . -.97. ,
, : . , . . ,
, ,
. . , , ,
. ,

86

4. :


. ,
, ,
,
.
. , , ,
. - ,
, ;
,
, ,
, , (
). , 98.
,
. , , . -.,
. 2000 . . , 1960- ,
. . , , ,

,
99.
, ,
, ,

, ( ),
.

. 87

2. :

, -

.

, ,
,
100.
I .
,
() , .
, . -.
, , ,
,
, .
I .

,
, ,
.
, -, , I . , , ,
. ( ).

, .

11 2001 . :
88

4. :


( ), , ,
, ..,
. ,
/ , , ,
,
,
, .
, -
, ,
.
,
, , 2001 .
,
, . ,
, ,
,
101.
. ():
,
, ,
c , .
, , , , ,
, .
, : ,
, , 89

2. :

.
. , , ,
1990- , ,
. ,
102.

, , , , .
. , ,
, 1990- ,
,
, , ,
;
,
().
, , , , . 103.
. , 2001 .
, , .
(
) , ,
,
,
.

,
90

4. :

. -
, ,
; , ,
, , , , ;
; .
.
. , . , .
. .
(,
, )
.
, -
. . ,

( ),
104.

. 2002 .
, ,
, . ,
2001 . ,
, . , ,
105.
. . :
. ,
.
2001 .,
,
106.

91

2. :

. ,
,

. ,
,
. ,
, ,
, .
, .
,
107.
, , . , , , .
, ,
, , ,
, . , . , ,
108.
,
, , .
.
, , . ,

-. . , ,
.


. . ,
,
. ,

92

4. :
,
109.

. . , . -.,
:
, . ,
( ) , ,
I . , ,
110.

4.2.
. ,
, ,
, , , . , . .
, , .
, .
2001 . : ,
, ,
, .
2002 . , ( 1997 . )

( ) , , 111.
93

2. :

,
,
,
.
, ,

,
.
. . 1972 .
2001 ., .

1972 .
2002 . , , , , (, ).
I . .
. ,
.
,
, ,
( ), .
2002 . - (
).
. . 11 :
94

4. :
. 11 2001 .
, ,
.
, ,
,
112.

. ,

-. ,
, , , . , :
? ,
, , , . .
: () () .

National Interest,
, , 113. . , 2001 .,
, , : ?
? ? ,

, , , .
. , , ,
2001 . ,
. ,

95

2. :

, ,
. . ,
- 1 2002 .,
, (
), .
, ,
. ,
,
.
,

, 1990- .
, , ,
, ,
, . . ,
,
. , . 2001 .
,
.
.

-
. . , , ,
: ,
. , ,

. .
96

4. :

,
:
-, (
)
,
;
, , , ;
.

, , ,
;
, : , .
,
, .
, , , ,
.
. , , , ,
. . ,
,
, . . ,
-, ,
, .
97

2. :

. , 11 2001 .
,
,
.
( ),
, , , .
.
,
,
, -.
,
,
, ,

.
114.
. . , ,
, .
, , , , , -
, .
, ,
, 2001 . ,

115.
, ,
, , . , , .
, I . ,
98

4. :

, , . ,
: ,
116.
, ,
. ,
, 2003 ., , , 20032005 .
,
.
2004 . ( ).
,
, 2001 .
,
, :
, , ,
. , , (, ).
, .
, .
2004 . .
. ,
, .
. . , .
99

2. :

. .
, ,
,
. :
117.


:
:
, , 118.

, .
:
,

119.

, ,
,
, . .
, , ,
. .
- . . :
: 120.
:
(. . .) ,
. , . , .

100

4. :
, .
, ( . . .) .
,
121.

, .
, , , , -,
, .. .

( - ), () (
). , ,
,
.
,
.
. ( ) , . ,
, () ,
.
.

.
-, -,
, , :
, , , ,
,
.
-, . :
.
101

2. :

-,
, ,
.
. , . , , ,
122. , , (
), , ,
. , . , ,
,
. , , ,
, , ,
, , 123.
,
. :

, . ,
. (.. . . .), , 124.

, ,
,
( , )
, (), ( ), .

, ( , 125)
, . .
. 102

4. :



. . , , , , 126.

4.3.
20052007 , ,
.
, ,
,

. ,

, ,
-127.
, , , (, , ,
).
, ,
.


(
). , ,
( ),
;
; .
. , , . ,
103

2. :


, .
, ( ):

, , -
;
; 50 . .
. , 15 2003
450 128.

, , .
,
, -, ,
, , . .
, ,
,
, .
, ,

, 129.
,

,
, .
2006 .
- .
104

4. :

: 130.
, . , ;
.
, ,
.
,
, , , ,
. ,
,
,
.
,
(
- ).
,
,
. ,
, , , .
, ,
,
, .
. , , ,

,
105

2. :

.
, -
.
I . , . .
,
, , .

.
,
, , .
1990- , ,
:
, , ,
.
, , .
.
.
.
-
, . . , ,
106

4. :

, .
,
, ,
, , ,
, , 131.

2006 ., , , - ,
. :
,
, .
, ,
. . ,
132. , ,
, ,

, , , , . ,

, . , ,
- , ,
(, , , , , , , .).
.

( , , , , , ), .
,
, ,
133.
107

2. :

, :
,
,

134.
,
,
,
,
, .
,
( ), ( ),
(
, , , ). ,

.
, . 1990-
, I .
. ,
, ,

( , , , ,
).
:
( ) , , ,
. ,
- , , 108

4. :

, , , , ,
-.

:
.
.
. , , , , ,
, .
, , 135.
, .
, 136.
, , :
. -., . . -. . ,
( )
1995 . ,
.
2001 . ,
( , 1994 .,
). , .
, . . , - ,
.
-
.

109

2. :

( , ),

( ).

, , ..; , , (, ,
,
). -
, , ,
, ( - -
).
. ,
137. , ,
, ( ), , , , , . ,

. ,
2000 . ,
, ,
2000 . , , - , ,
138.
,
( ,
) ,
,
110

4. :

.
( )
,
(, )
.
, - ,
.
.
,
,
, .
, ,
( ), ,
(
), , ,
( -,
), , .

111

- . , ,
,
, .

2008 .
, ,
, .

5.1. :


:
, , , ,

, .
2008 .

( -). - .

, .
. ,
, , :
112

5.
,

100 ,
139.


: I ., ,
. , . , . ,
. ,

. , , , ,

.
. , ; ,
(, , , ..); ,
, ;
.
. ,
, (
,
)140.
:
, - . ., ,
- . . . , -,
.


. . 141. 113

2. :

, , ,
, , .
.
,
:
, ,
,

( . . .)142.

. , , , , , .

, ,
. .
, , ()
,
( ).
,
, , , ,

.
, , , ,
,
. , , , .
, , , , , , .
114

5.

, , ,
,
,
,
.
. , , , : ,
, . , , : , ,
,
,
, 143.
. .
,
.
, ,
, ,
. . ,
,
144. ,
(),
,
, . 145.

, . ,
, , , . , , . -
, ,
115

2. :

,

, .. .
.
, ( ),
, , , ,
146.
. :
, .
, , . . , . , ,
. ,
. . .
. . ,
147.

,
,
, . , ,
, ,
, .
2009 .
, .
() ,
, ,
, . . ,
,
116

5.

,
, 148.
,
, ,
- , ,

-. , , ,
,
. ,
( )
149.
2010 . ,
,
, , , , 1990- 2000- .
2010 . ,
, , . ,
,
. ,
, , 150.


2010 ., 151. 2010 .
: ,
, . , .
. .
117

2. :

2010 . , , , ,
. : . , , , ,

. , , .


.
:
, , , ,
,
. ,
, , , ,
152.

, , .
, , .
,
, , ,
.
2010 . ,
. (, ) 153.
118

5.

, . ? , .
, , , ,
.

. , 2010 .
. 154. ,
,
,


,
,
.
, :
, , ,
,
, . ,
, , , (negative security assurance) ,
, ,
.
. ,
, ,
. , ,
(nuclear umbrella),
(
).
2010 . , , 119

2. :


155. ,
2010 ., , - ,
,
, , .
. ,

:
1) , , (
);
2) , ;
3)
()
( );
4)
, ;
5) -
,
;
6)
156.
, , , .
,
, , 157.
,
,
.
. , 120

5.

, (
),
, .
2008 .

- .
, ,
, , , .
.

.
, , , - .
, ,
.
. ,
2011 . , , , 1999 .
,
, ,
, .. . ,
.
, . . .
121

2. :

5.2. :

, , . ,
: ,
( ), , ,
, ,
,
, .
- ,

, ,
-
. , -,
( ),
. . , , .
- , , , .

.
,
(
, ,
). , , , :
1) ;
2) ,
;
3) ,
.
122

5.

. ,
. ,
. . ,
. : ,
158.

. ,
, , , .

. ,
, , . , . . , . , . , . , . 1990-
2000- , , , ,
,
.
-
. , :
, , ,
, , . ,
, ()
.
, , 159.

,
. . , . :
160.
. : 123

2. :

, , . .
. 161.
, , ,
,

.
, : , , .. , , ,
, . I .
,
, - ( , ,
).
19601970-
, , ,
( ).
2000- ,
, ,
, ,
- . ,
,
, . 1 2009 .,
, .
,
40 . (33 . 7 . ).
.
. 60 , . :
124

5.
,
, ,

162.

. ,

. .
1990- ,
.
.
- ,
. ,
. , , , .
, , , -
,
.
, . , :
, I . ( ) ,
, , , ,
..
, , ,
.
, , , , .
, , , -
, ,
; , , ,
125

2. :

, ,
;
,
.
, , . .
,
, .
,
. ,
, , ,
,
, .

.
,
. , ,
.
,
,
, .
, , , ,
,
.
, , , ,
. -
126

5.

,
.
. .
,
,
, .
,
, , .

: , , ,
.
, ().
.
- , ,

.

- ,
,
, , , , . ,
, ,
, .
,
, .
, 163.
127

2. :


, . ,
,
,
.
, ,
. ( ).
.
. , , , ,
.
: / ,
, ,
,
.
, .
. , ,
,
, ( ) . ,

,
,

. ,

164.

,
,
. ,
128

5.

, , 2050 .
,
, ,
. ,
2011 . , - 19461964 . 77 .
52 ., 4
2008 ,
.


1,4 ., 10% . 2019 .
21 .,
165.

,
, , .
.
, .
-
,
- . ,
,
.
166.
,
,
2010 ., .
.

129

2. :

, , (, , , ). ,
, .. , ,
.
, - , - .
. , , , . (
), 167.
,
,
( 64% ).
, 1990-
2000- , ,
,
, ..
,
. ,

/.
2000 .
, I .
,
, , 46%, ..
, , ,
, 44% ( )168.
,

- , ,
, , 130

5.

. -.,
,
,
.
, .
,
,
,
.
2011 . ,
()
,
,
, , - .
. ,

,
. , , , ,
, . ,

, , , .
.
:
, ,
- .
(Washington
rules) .

131

2. :


. .
XXI . // . 2007. 9.
. 114122.
. . , //
: . 1999. 7. . 316.
. . - //
: . 2006. 2. . 330; 2006.
3. 332.
: 2 . / . . . . .: , 2006. [ ]. : http://
www.obraforum.ru.
: / . . . . .: , 2010.
. . . .: ,
2002. . 97280. [ ]. : http://www.
obraforum.ru.
Active Engagement, Modern Defense. Strategic Concept for the Defense and
Security of the Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization adopted by Heads
of State and Government in Lisbon. Lisbon, Portugal. 1920 November 2010. [ ]. : http://ww.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_
texts_68580.htm.
National Security Strategy of the United States of America. The White House.
Washington. D.C. May 2010. [ ]. : http://
www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2010.
Bacevich A. J. Washington Rules. Americas Path to Permanent War. N.Y.: Metropolitan Books, 2010.
Brzezinski Z. Second Chance. Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower. N.Y.: Basic Books, 2007.
Carothers Th. U.S. Democracy Promotion During and After Bush. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Washington, D.C.: CEIP, 2007 / http://www.ceip.org.
Gaddis J. L. History, Grand Strategy and NATO Enlargement // Survival. Spring
1998. Vol. 40. No 1. P. 145151.
Huntington S. P. The Lonely Superpower // Foreign Affairs. March/April 1999.
Vol. 78. No 2. P. 3549.
Huntington S. Dead Souls. The Denationalization of the American Elite // The
National Interest. Spring 2004. No 75. P. 518.
Layne Ch. The Peace of Illusions. American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the
Present. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2006.
Mandelbaum M. The Case for Goliath. How America Acts as the Worlds Government in the 21st Century. N.Y.: Public Affairs, 2005.
McFaul M. The Liberty Doctrine // Policy Review. April/May 2002. No 112.
P. 124.

1991 . , ,

,
. , , - (
). I .
.


, : ,
, 19851991 ., , ,
.

, - ,
, , . ,
.
134

6.



,
. -.

6.1.
1 1992 . -
, , ,
169.
,
1992 ., ,

,
- , ,
-
, , ,

, , 170.
,
, .

.
, ;
, .


.
135

3.

. .
, , , - ,
; , -, ,
171.
. , , :
,
; ,
,
172.


173. ,
, .

. , , .
19921993 . . ,
. , ;
, XXI ., , ,
(,
136

6.

, , , ),
, (, , , , , , , );
,
, ..
, (, , , ,
, , , ); , (failed states), (, , , , ,
).
, ,
,
( ) .
/ / , ,
.
19921994 . ,
, ,
. , , ,
, . ,
, , , .
1993 . : 1993 . ; 1993 . ,
;
, ; 1994 .
; ( -
137

3.

, ,
); 1994 .
,
174.

,
. 1995 . , 175.

, , ,

. 1993 .
, ,
.
. ,
, ,
. . ,
,
. , :
, ,
. 176.
. .
, ,

. ,
, , . ,
, -
138

6.



177.
. ,
, , ,
. ,
, : ,

, , .
,
, , .
,
, ,
, ,
, ,
.
-, . , . ,
. , ,
,
,
, .
, , ,

, , 178.
1996 . 139

3.

. .
179. . 24 1996 .
:
,
;
, .
, ;
, ;
; ;
,
, , , ;
. 1972 .,
-2180.
, ,
, ,

. . ,
, ,

. , :
. . ,
,
181.
. , ,
140

6.


.
-
. , ,
- ,
. . ,
(),
. , ,
. ,
, ? ,
182.

, .
,
. :
,

,

183.

, , .
,
. . ,
184, , , ,
, .
, . 141

3.


,
185.
,
, 186. ,
,
, . , ,

, . , .
, ( )187.
,
, ,
.
1990- , ,
,
. . ,
188. , 1991 .
,
.
,
,

. , , ,
, , .
, 19891994 . , , , , .
- . , ,
142

6.

,
- (
)189.
. .
, , . , -
. . ,
,
190.
, ,
. .
:
1) . . . . ,

- ;
2) , -
;
3) , .
. ,
. :
, ; 1970- ,
.
, , , , 143

3.

,
,
, , 191.
,
, ,

.
,
. , . , . , . , . ,
. , . , . , . , . ,
, ,

, ,
. ,
, .


,
,
, , .

.
, , , ,
,
192.
1997 .

,
(), 144

6.

.
:

, ;
, ;
, ;

, .

, , ,
.
.
, , , .
.

- ( ), ,

, .
(18 1997 .
-),
. 1998 . . ()

(
) ,
.
- , 1994 . 145

3.

, .

, 193. . ,
,
.
.

. ,
,
.
( ),
,
.

, .
, .
,
, 1938 ., 1945 . ,
(
), 1945 .

, , .
, ,
, .
, , ,
.
, . . , 194.
146

6.




, , , . .
,
,
.

, , 195.
,
(. , . , . , . .),
.
. , , 1997 . :

;
,
,
;
,
;
, -
,
;
, , , ;

;
, 196.
, , 147

3.

(
),
1999 .
-
, . . .
197:
1. ,
. ,
3050 .
.
2. ,
,
, -2, ,
. ,
,
.
3. ,
.

, .
27 1997 . ,
, .


. , , ,
,
.
148

6.


,

.
,
, -
198.

6.2. -
2000 . ,
,
,
.
, ,
. ,
,
, ,
.
, , ,
. , ,
. ,
,
,
.
,
. . . ,
, ,
, , 1980- ,
149

3.

,
199. , ,
. , , .

, .
, :
;
,
, ,
;
, , -;


(), ;
,
, , ; ;
, ;
, ;
, ,

;
; , ;
,
;
-
,
150

6.

; 1972 .,
, ,

( 1997 .
1972 .)200.
, ,
201.
. ,
, ,
: , ,
,
( , ,
..). , , ,
-
,
, , , ,
,
202.
:

;
,
, ;

;
, , ,
;
,
,
.
151

3.

, , , ,
,
,
.
, ,
,
.
,
,
() . , ,
, -
.

, ,
, ,
( , ) .203.
- , , : ; ,
;
, ; , , , ,
.
152

6.

, , , ,
. , , , , ,
, , 204.
, , , ,
.
. , , , :
19911992 . ; ; ,


, 205. ,
(
) , , :

; ; ;
,
;
, ,
, .
. ,
,
:

206. 153

3.


, , , , , . ,
. ,
.
. ,
,
-.
, 1995 . ,
,
, .
, , , . . ,
, . , , .

, ,
, .
, - ,
.
:
, , ,
,
207.
, , . , . , . , . ,
. , . ,
154

6.

.
-.
2000 . .
,
. , ,
,
. . , ( )
500 . ,
3,5 . , ,
208.
,
( . ),
(), ,

, , .
. . .
(). ,
, . .

, .
( . ).
,
, ,
,
, 209.
, 1972 . :
1) ,
,
;
155

3.

2) , ,
,
, ;
3)
;
4)
, 210.
, -

, , , ,
. , 1972 . , ( ) .

211.
, , , , ,
1972 . ,
, .
,
, . ,
.

, () ,
( ) ( ), ; ,
.
156

6.

,
, .
, ,
: 1) ,
, ,
; 2)
, ,
, ; 3)
,
, , ,
., 212.
.

,
, ,
,
.
, - , , ,
, , ,
,
.

, - ,
: , ;
,
,
; , ;
.
, ,
,
213.
, 157

3.

, , ,
214.
, , , , , .
, ,

.
, , ,
. , ,

, ,
. ,
.
- -
. - .
. . ,
( ) ( ) ( ), ( ,
) ,
, 215.
, 216.
, :
, , ..,
,
.

158

, 2000 ., .
( , . -. )217.
. , , :
, ,
,
218.

, 1990-
,
. , , . ,

. , : ? :
?219.
. , . , . (

),
. , . .
. . , , ,
1990-
, , , . , , 2000 2001 ., ,
- ,
, , . . , , , 159

3.


, 220.

7.1.

,
.
:

,
() ,
; .
- , : / / /.
. . , , (
) ,
,
. , , , ;
, ;
, ,
-, .. .
, . . . . (16 2001 .), (2123
2001 .). , .
160

7. :

- ,
, . , ,
. , , ,
,
, .

. ,
.
. ,
( ), . ,
. , ,
, .
2001
. . .
, , 19922000 ., .
. . ,
, , ,
:
300 , . ,
, .
. ,
,
221.

161

3.

. , ,
,
1972 . ,
,
. , , ,
,
.
. , ,
,
:
1)
;
2) ;
3) , ()
;
4) ,

;
5) ; , ,
;
6) ;
222.
,
- , , , ,
,
(, , , ).
. .
,
162

7. :

, : ( )
. ,
, ,
,
.
.
, 223.
. ,
, , .
, . , , ,
. , , ,
,
( , ), (
, ..), ( )224.
, .
, ( ) .
,
. , . ,
:
, ,
,
, ..
, ,
,
225.
163

3.

2002 .
. -. . . . . .
- ,
,
,
,
, .

.
. , , ,
, . ,
( ), ..
/ . , ,
,
, , , . .
, , ,
226.
, I . . ,
.
2002 . 2003 . .
, - ,

.
. , .
,

164

7. :

,

.
,
.
( ) -


. : - -, .. .
,
. , ,
,
- , , ,
227.
- ,

.
,
,
,
, .
1990- ,
: .
, , .
,
165

3.

,
. -
,
, .
, ,
. . ,
, , ,
- , , .
- :

.
,
, . ,
:
.

(), , ( ),
,
, , .
,
.

.
, , , . , 166

7. :


: ,
, , .
, .
,
, . , ,
. ,
, , ,
( ), ..

,
, . . 2006 .: ,
, , 228.
, , .
,
- , , .

. ? ,
.
,
, ,
( , ),
, , ( ) 167

3.

,
.
, , , . ,
, ,
, ,
().
,
/ .
,
( ), , . , , (
), , ( , ). , ,
, . (,
), ,
. ,
, , ,
229.
, ()
,
, , .
168

7. :

,

, ,

, .
, ,
, ,
,
. , .
2000-
, 2006 .
.
20062007 . ,
. -
.
(2006)230 . .
2007 .231
, ( !), ,
, (
),
.
, , . ,
.

7.2.
, 169

3.

, . ,
- , , .
, . , ,
:
( . . .) ,
, . , ;
. ,
232.

,
, ( ) . -
, .
, ,

.
, , . . ,
, , ,
I . , .
,
, 233. , , , ,
,
. ,
, ,
. , ( ) ,
,
170

7. :

( . ).
. ,
, ,
, :
, , . . ,
, ,
.
, -: () ,
234.
20032005 . , , ,
. 2003 ., 2004 .
. .
, :
, , , ; .
. , ,
,
- .
,
235.
, . ,

, ,

236. 171

3.

.
,
, :

? ,
( ) . - .
(sovereignty of Ukrainian people). , , , ,
, ; , , ,
. ,
, , . .
,
237.
, ,
, 18 .238.
,
,
, . . ,

, , 239.
, , .. , ,

. ,
,
, ,
. . , ,
, , 172

7. :

( ),
, - . , . ,
, ,
,
,
( ) 240.
, ,
, ( , )
. .
,
- ,

(, , .) ,
, . .
.
,
(, ). , , ,
,
.
,
,
, (, , )241.
20052006 . , . , ,
,
:
, 2006 . ,
(- . . .), -

173

3.
35 , 2000 ,
800 .

. ,
,
: , , ,
, ,
, .. . 1990-
, .
,
, , ( )
242. , ,
, , ,
.
2008 ,
(, ,

), , ,

.


2003 ,
2008
( - )


.
- , ,
, , 174

7. :


.
.
, 2001 . .
. .
. ,
- ,
.
, ,
, , , ,
,
243.

, ,
,
.


,
, .
, . .
2005 .,
.
. ,
, (,
), ,
175

3.

. , , ,
2001 .244.
, .
.
, .
. , .
. .

(),
, .
20032005 ., . . ,

, , , .
, , ,
- , , , -
245.

, . (
) -,
, 1990- :
, ?
2005 . , ,
176

7. :

,
.
, ( - ).
. . , , :
,
, (, , , , ,
.) - , , .
, .
. ,
, , ,

246.

, .

( ), (
). , ,
,
.
. , , 247,
:
1. ,
,

.
2.
,
.
3.

.
177

3.

4.
. ,
.
,
20042005 ., 2006 . , 5 2006 .,
. , .
, .
. ,
2004 2008 ., . . . ,

1990- . . .
,
,
- ( ) .
(. , . ), .
, , , , . , . , , ,
. , . , . , . , . ,
. , . , . .
. ,
.
, . ,
178

7. :

( ), ,
. , ,
:
.
, . . ( ) ( , , ). .
,
, . .
,
.
, ,
, , - ( -) ,
. , ,
,
.
:
, ;
.
, ,
. :
.
,
.
; , , 179

3.

, ,

.
; , ; ; .

- .
2008 .,
,
, . . , .
- , , , , , ,
, . .
,
. ,
.
:
;
;
;
;
, .
, , , 180

7. :

.
()
, .
,

.
,
,
.
( , )
.
,
, ( ),
, , , :
.
, ,
, ,
. , , ( , ,
..).
, ,

.
. ,

.
181

3.

-
,
. ,
,
,
, ,
( ), ( ).
-
, ,
(),
( ), , .
, - 248, .

,
.
. ,
, ,
, , , , .

-
,

.
, , .
182

7. :

, ,
.
, , , ,
. ,
, ..
, ,
- ,
( ). . , , . . , . ,
. , ,
,
, . , , , .
, .
,
,
, ,
.
, ,

.
, ,

.
, ( ), , -
,
183

3.

, ,
.
, , , , , .. .

, . , ,
, , (), , , , ..
, , .
.
,
, , . ,
, . , - ,
. :
,
-;
, ,
(. . .)249.

. , . ,
,
250.
,
.
. , ,
, , 184

7. :

,
- ;
. ,
, , , ,
251.
, ,
( ) . ,
. ,

( ). , , ,
:
,
, , - ,
. ,
. ,
.

7.3. -

,

( ) , ,
.
. . ,
, 185

3.

, ,
.
( ),

252.
, ,

. , ,
, . . . ,
,
,
,
..
. :
. ,
. , , , .
253.

, 16
2006 ., ,
,
254.
. 2001 , ,
, . , , , , ,
, ,
186

7. :


.
, .
. 2000-

(, ).
2003 . . . ,
. . .
, ( , ).
2004 . . . .

.

, . . .
, 100
(28 2004 .). ,
,
, .
( )255.
.

2005 .
, . , 2005 .;
, . , 2005 . 187

3.

. ,
() (, . , . , . , . .).
, ,
-
(, . ).
.
, .
- 2006 .
. , ,

. , ,
.
2006 . -
.
.
.
, ,
, .

, 2006 .;
.
2006
2007 ., -
. .
, . : 188

7. :

, ( ,
I .),
.
: ,
,
..256.
,
, ,
.
, , , ,
,
, .
,
-,
( ), ,
. ,
, -, ,
, , , .
, .
, , ,

. . ,
-, .
, 257.
, ,
, ,
. , , , , 189

3.

. ,
- ,
( )
.

,
, -
. ( ) ,
1990- , . , .
, - , , ,
, , ,
. , . ,
. 1996 ,
, . 1994 :

,
. , 258.


,
(Country Reports on Human Rights Practices).
,
. , , ,
.

: (Supporting
Human Rights and Democracy: The U.S. Record). ,
2003 . .
, , , .
190

7. :

, , 2006 . ( 2007 .),



. ,
259.
. . ,
, ,
. . , , ,
2003 .
: ,
. 260.
. ,
,
, ,
261.

,
,
, .
262.

, ,
, ,

. . ,
,
:

,
,
263.

. , . ,
191

3.

. . . , , 1990- ( )
: 42 ,
2000- 22 . ,
. , :
1990- (
), 2000- ( ), 264.
: 20082009 .
,
, 2009 ., , ( ,
, ,
).
; ,
, , ;
.
, , ,
, .
, ,
,
,
. ,

2006 . 265.

.
. 192

7. :

, ,

( )
( , ,
). , . , ,
( ),
, ,
. , ,
.
, ,
.
, , , , (Nations in Transit),
266. ,
, , ,
, .


. ,
( ), .
, (. 2),
2000-
( 1,
7).
2009 . 6,11. :
6,14, 6,93, 6,89, 6,57, 6,25, 6,32. (4,39), (5,07),
(6,04), (4,93).

:
193

3.

6,75;
5,57;
6,25;

6,5;
5,75;
5,5;
6,25;
5;
6.
, 267.
2
*

1999
4,00

2001
4,25

2002
4,50

2003 2004
4,75
5,50

2005
6,00

2006
6,25

2007
6,50

3,75

4,00

4,00

4,25

4,50

4,75

5,00

5,25

4,75

5,25

5,50

5,50

5,75

6,00

6,00

6,25

5,75

6,00

6,00

5,75

5,75

6,00

4,25

4,50

4,75

4,50

4,75

5,25

5,25

5,25

6,25
4,58

6,25
4,88

6,00
5,00

5,75
4,96

5,75
5,25

5,75
5,61

6,00
5,75

6,00
5,86

* . . . . .

, , . ,
-
, .
194

7. :

. , -
- .

, ,
, , ( ).

,
, , ,
. ,
. , :
, ,
, , , (!).
,
,
. ,
,

.
,
, ,
268.
. . ,

,
,
. ,
,
(, ). . :
, ,
, :
,
, 269.

, ,
, . . , 195

3.

,
( , )
, .
, , ,
: , , , , .

, . , ,
,
- ,
.
,
270.
2008 , ,
, , , , ,
. ,
(, ),
,
, (, ).
.
. . ,
. , 1990- ,
,
.
. . ,
1990-
,
, . ,
- ,
, , -

196

7. :
,
271.


, , . ,
,
.
. . ,
. , :
: , , 272.

. . , :
, ,
- . , ,

273.
-
2008 ., . . ,
,
(?) ,
274.

, , - , , ,
.
,
-

197

3.

( ).

.
,
2006 , ,

,
. ,
.

198

. .

,
. ,
.
2008 . - , ,
.

8.1. 2008

, ,
.
:
, ,
, ;

,
.
199

3.

2008 . , .
. ,


.
. , . ,

: , .
,
, ,
, , - , ,
.

: , , , ,
, ,
275.
- (. , . , . , . ,
. , . .) , ,
, ,
, ,
. , (
) .

, , ,
. , 200

8. :

( )
276.
.
. , . (
), . ,
.
, , . ,
,
. .
:

,
. ,
,
(?!),
. ,
, ,

, ,
. , 277.
. , .
, ,
. :
,
.
, , 278.


.
201

3.

, , ,
, .
, ,
, . ,
- ,
, .
, ,
- , , , . ,
- .
, ( , , ),
, .
2008 .
, ,
,
.
.
, : ,
, ,
, . ,
,
,
. , :
,
,

202

8. :
, .
, , , ,
, , 279.

, .
,
, , .
, . . ,
, ,
. . , .
, . ,
280.
, ,
, ,
281. ,
, ,
, .
,
:
, ,
.
, . ,
- () 282.

. , . , , ,
203

3.

- (
) . . .
, .
(!), , , ,
283.
,
, , , . .

, ,
. , ,
.

. ,
.
(
)284.
. , . , . , .
. , ,
,
, ,
, .
. ,
2008
: , ,
, . .
204

8. :

2009 . (
,
), , ,
,
, .

(
. . . ).
,
,
. .
?
, . . , , ,
, 20062008 . 285.
: , ;
, (,
);
, ;
-
; ,
, ,
; .
,
, , , , ,
, . ( ) ,
,
, ,
205

3.

. ,
, . , ,

, ,

.
. .
: (), (, , , ..), , ,
.
,
, ,
, ..
, 1990-, 2000- , ..
- . , ,
, ,
. , , ,
-
;

;
; , .
, . . , ,
. ,
.
, , , . ,
206

8. :

( ),
. , ,
, .
,
,
. . 286. , , .
. .
, ,

,
287.
. , :
1) , , ,
;
2) , ,
,
;
3) ,
, ,
,
, .

, ,
,
( ).

, 1990- 2000- , ,
.
207

3.

, , .
. , ( ),
, , ,
.
2008 . . . -
( ),

.

, .
,
.
, , ,
, .
. , ,
288. , .
.
.
, , ;


; .
. , ,
, ,
, , ,
. . , 208

8. :

,
:
, . ,
, ,
, ,
.
,
,
; ,
().

,
- .

,
, .
, 2009-, 2010 .
- .

. . 2009 . 289.
, ,
, . 290. ,

, , ,
,
- , ,
-
.
,

, :
209

3.

, . , , ,

.
, , ,
, , 291.
- :
,
, , . 292.

,
. , . , ,
, ()
. .
, ( ), () ,
(
), , 2293.
. , , 294.
. , , ,
. ,
? , , , ,
.
, , .
, , , - .
210

8. :

8.2.
, 2008 , , ,
,
. -. , ,
, ,
, . , .

, .
, -
. ,
,
, .
, , , ,
.

, ,
. ,
,
- .

,
, ,
. .
.
, , .

. 211

3.

. ,
. . - , ,
, . 8 2010 .

-3.
, .

. 295, : ,
, . ,
,
,
. ,

, .
-
.
,
. , ,
.
, .
. , , 296.

2010 . 297, 298
:
212

8. :

, ;
,
;

; () , ; ,
- ; ,
( .). ,
()
,
,
.
,
,
. , , .
, , , ,
,
, ,
, 299. ,
,
,
.

, . ,
,
213

3.

(
),
.

,
, , - .

,
,
.
. ,
300. 2009 .
,
, . . . 301.
, ? , :
,
,
, ( ,
- ).
. , , , ,
.
, .

. ,
, , , -
. , ,
214

8. :

,
.

, . . ,

, .
. , . , ,

. . , , , , ()302. ,
- ,
. . , .
2008 . ,
,

, ( , ).
- . ,
1980- .
, . ,
, , ,
303.
. .
,
. . ,
,

.
.
, 215

3.

, . . 1980- ,
, , , ,
.

- ,
, , .
. ( , ),
(10 . 10 ).
, 2008 . 1 .,
.

, .
304.
, ,
( ) ,
- . . , , ,
305. , , ,
. , ,
. , , ( ) .
, .
, , ,
, ,
216

8. :

,
.
, . , , ,
.
- ,
.
, ,
, 306.
, ,
. ,

? ,
.
, . , ,
,
. , :
1) ( . );
2) :
, , 15 ,
,
.
- . , ,
307.
,
.
. . -
217

3.

, 2000- ,
, 308.
.


, . ,
, () ,
.

, .
,
,
( ),
. , (, ,
, ,
).
, , .

2010 . -3 , ,
,
I ., ,
, .
, ,
309.
,
, ,
.
. . ,
, , .
- -

218

8. :
,
, . , 310.

- , ,
.

. -. . ,
, , ,
: . :

(
, ),
.
311.

,
, , - .
, , ,
- (, ), , ( ), .
, (
)
312. , , ,
.
219

3.

,
, , , .
, , , ,
.
,
, , , 1945 .313.

,
, . , , :

. , , ( ),
.

,
314.
, , ,
, -
: ,
. ,
315. , ,
.
, . , .
220

8. :

, .
,

.
,
, , , ,
316.

?
. . , - 2008 ,
. ,
:
,
, . ,
, . . ,
. 317.

, , . ,
, 318.
.
,
, , , ;
, .. .
,
(, 2011 .),
221

3.

, ,
.. , ,
, , , ( ).
,
,
, .

: ; ,
; ;
,
;
- . , , ,
.
-
( )
.
,
,
.


. . . .: , 2009.
. . .
// . 2009. 3. . . 7.
. 2536. [ ]. : http://www.intertrends.ru.
. . //
. 2007. . 1. . 5. . 5469. [ ]. : http://www.intertrends.ru.

222

8. :
. . // . 2008. . 3. . 4. . 15
25. [ ]. : http://www.intertrends.ru.
. . // . 2006. C. 3. . 4. . 5261. [ ]. : http://www.intertrends.ru.
/ . . . . .
.: , 1999.
: (2001
2008 .) / . . . . . . . .: , 2009.
. .
// . 2006. . 1. . 4.
[ ]. : http://www.intertrends.ru.
. .
// : .
2009. 2. . 321.
. . : //
: . 2001. 12. . 5369.
Graham Th. U.S.-Russia Relations. Facing Reality Pragmatically. CSIS IFRI
Project. Project Codirectors A. Kuchins and Th. Gomart. July 2008. [
]. : http://www.csis.org; http://www.ifri.org.
Legvold R. All the Way. Crafting a U.S.-Russian Alliance // The National Interest.
Winter 2002/03. P. 2131. [ ]. : http://
nationalinterest.org.
Rumer E. and Stent A. Repairing U.S.-Russian Relations: A Long Road Ahead.
INSS CERES, April 2009. [ ]. : http://
www.ceres.org.
Russias Wrong Direction: What the United States Can and Should Do. Report
of an Independent Task Force. Council on Foreign Relations, 2006. [
]. : http://www.cfr.org.
Talbott S. The Russia Hand. A Memoir of Presidential Diplomacy. N.Y.: Random
House, 2002.
. // . 2006. 5. . 141152. [ ]. : http://www.
globalaffairs.ru/12357.html.
. // . 2009.
. 4. [ ]. : http://www.globalaffairs.
ru/12357.html.

223


1
2006 -
. , (. )
2
Abelson D. A Capitol Idea: Think Tanks and U.S. Foreign Policy. Montreal, 2006.
P. 231232.
3
McGann J. Scholars, Dollars and Policy Advice. Report. Philadelphia: Foreign Policy
Research Institute, 2004. P. 11.
, 2006 . .
4
McGann J. Scholars, Dollars and Policy Advice. P. 12.
5
.: . . . . ., 1997; . . : . ., 1997.
6
:
McGann J. The Competition for Dollars, Scholars, and Influence in the Public Policy
Research Industry. Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 1995.
7
. . . ., 2005. . 71130.
8
. . 95.
9
. . . . ., 2002.
. 3940.
10
Ikenberry J. After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of
Order after Major Wars. Princeton (N.J.), 2001.
11
. . . (19451995).
., 1996. . 40.
12
. . // . 2001. 1.
. 413.
13
.: . . . ., 2005. . 131176.
14
()
( ) .
15
Bull H. The Anarchical Society. A Study of Order in World Politics. N.Y., 1977.
16
Fukuyama F. America at the Crossroads. Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy. New Haven; L., 2006. P. 10.
17
., : Allison R. Regionalism, Regional Structures and Security Management in Central Asia // International Affairs. May 2004. Vol. 80. No 3. P. 463483.
18
Fukuyama F. America at the Crossroads. P. 180.
19
2011 . . . 2010 .
. . . .: Volgy Th., Corbetta R.,
Rhamey J. P. The Two Clubs: Major Global Powers, Major Regional Powers and Status
Considerations in International Politics. Paper presented at the 52nd Annual Convention of
the International Studies Association. Montreal, 1620 March, 2011.

224

20
, 1980- , : . .
. ., 2002.
21
. . . . ., 1987;
. . // , , . 1987. 2. . 315.
22
. . //
, , . 1988. 1. . 1017; . . ? // . 1990. 12. . 3951.
23
Kegley Ch., Jr., and Raymond G. When Trust Breaks Down. Alliance Norms and
World Politics. Columbia (S. Ca.), 1990. P. 266280.
24
Allison G. Windows of Opportunity // Windows of Opportunity. From Cold War to
Peaceful Competition in U.S.-Soviet Relations / Ed. by Graham T. Allison and William L.
Ury with Bruce J. Allyn. Cambridge (Mass.), 1989. P. 309312.
25
Brzezinski Zb. In Quest of National Security. Boulder (Col.), 1988. P. 206207.
26
., . // , , . 1989. 12. . 7377.
27
Hoffmann S. Dead Ends. American Foreign Policy in the New Cold War. Cambridge
(Mass.), 1983. P. 246247.
28
Brzezinski Zb. The Grand Chessboard. American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. N.Y., 1998.
29
Wohlforth W. The Stability of a Unipolar World // International Security. Summer
1999. Vol. 24. No 1. P. 541; Goldgeier J. Not Whether But When. The U.S. Decision to
Enlarge NATO. Wash., D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1999.
30
. . //
. 1996. 2. . 26, 3032, 36.
31
. . . . 2649.
32
, , . . , , , , , ,
, . Kegley Ch. Jr. and
Raymond G. A Multipolar Peace? Great-Power Politics in the Twenty-First Century. N.Y.,
1994.
33
. . //
. 1993. 7. . 40.
34
. . // Pro et
Contra. 1999. 4. . 4. . 4344.
35
. . //
: . 2000. 3. . 1213.
36
. , , ,
. , , , ,
,
, , . Huntington S. The Lonely
Superpower // Foreign Affairs. MarchApril 1999. Vol. 78. No 2. P. 3549.
37
. , 19891991 . ,

225

, ,
( . -. ).
1993 . 19951997 .,
.
38
Hyland W. The Case for Pragmatism // Foreign Affairs. Winter 1991/92. Vol. 71.
No 1. P. 3852.
39
Nye J., Jr. The Changing Nature of World Power // The Global Agenda. Issues and
Perspectives / Ed. by Charles W. Kegley, Jr. and Eugene R. Wittkopf. N. Y., 1995. P. 105118.
40
Wallerstein I. Foes as Friends? // Foreign Policy. Spring 1993. No 90. P. 145157;
. // . 1996. 4.
. 179180.
41
Kupchan Ch. After Pax Americana: Benign Power, Regional Integration, and the
Sources of a Stable Multipolarity // International Security. Fall 1998. Vol. 23. No 2. P. 4955.
42
. . // . 2000. 4. . 724.
43
. . / :
, , . . 1: . .,
1999. . 213241.
44
. . . . 4546.
45
Barnett Th. The Pentagon New Map. War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century.
N.Y., 2004.
46
Huntington S. Dead Souls. The Denationalization of the American Elite // The National Interest. Spring 2004. No 75. P. 518.
47
, , , ,
,


. , .
,
: , , () Ayoob M. and Zierler M.
The Unipolar Concert. The North-South Divide Trumps Transatlantic Differences //
World Policy Journal. Spring 2005. Vol. XXII. No 1. P. 3142.
48
Huntington S. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. N.Y.,
1996. P. 184.
49
.: . . , //
: . 1999. 7. . 910.
50
Walt S. Taming American Power // Foreign Affairs. September/October 2005.
Vol. 84. No 5. P. 105120; Hendrickson D. & Tucker R. The Freedom Crusade // The National Interest. Fall 2005. No 81. P. 1221.
51
Krauthammer Ch. The Unipolar Moment Revisited // The National Interest. Winter
2002/2003. P. 1213, 17.
52
Haass R. The Case for Integration // The National Interest. Fall 2005. No 81.
P. 2627. 19902000- , 2008 .

226

, , , .
53
. . //
. 2006. . 3. . 4. . 515. [ ]. : www.intertrends.ru.
54
. . 15.
55
Mandelbaum M. The Case for Goliath. How America Acts as the Worlds Government in the 21st Century. N.Y., 2005. P. 715.
56
. , , :
; () . :
, , , Haass R. The Age of Nonpolarity. What Will Follow U.S. Dominance //
Foreign Affairs. 2008, May/June. [ ]. : http://
www.foreignaffairs.org/20080501faessay87304.
57
Kagan R. The Return of History // The Los Angeles Times. 5 August, 2007. [ ]. : http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications.
58
. // . 2009.
2009. 3. [ ]. : http://www.
globalaffairs.ru/numbers/38/11947.html.
59
Khanna P. The Second World. How Emerging Powers Are Redefining Global Competition in the Twenty-First century. N.Y., 2009. P. xiv-xv.
60
Halper S. The Beijing Consensus. How Chinas Authoritarian Model Will Dominate
the Twenty-First Century. N.Y., 2010. P. 2526.
61
Zakaria F. The Post-American World. N.Y., 2008. P. 4345.
62
Bacevich A. J. Washington Rules. Americas Path to Permanent War. N.Y., 2010.
P. 2021.
63
Nye J. Jr. The Future of Power. N.Y., 2011. P. 117118.
64
. . . ., 2005. . 9899.
65
. .
// . 2006. . 1. . 4. . 29.
[ ]. : www.intertrends.ru.
66
, .: . .
. ., 2009. . 227276; :
/ . . . . ., 1976. . 53145.
67
. : Schwarz B. Permanent Interests, Endless Threats. Cold War Continuities
and NATO Enlargement // World Policy Journal. Fall 1997. Vol. XIV. No 3. P. 2430.
68
Brinkley D. Democratic Enlargement: The Clinton Doctrine // Foreign Policy.
Spring 1997. No 106. P. 111127.
69
. 21 1993 .
.
27 1993 .
.
70
A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement. The White House.
Washington, D.C., 1995 (February). [ ]. : http://
www.state.gov.
71
Asmus R., Blackwill R., Larrabee F. Can NATO Survive? // The Washington Quarterly. Spring 1996. Vol. 19. No 1. P. 79101.

227

A National Security Strategy for a New Century. The White House. Washington,
D.C., 1997 (May). [ ]. : http://www.state.gov.
73
, 1014
1992 ., , 1992 . : 39%,
13%, 13%, 8%, 7%, 6%, 4%, 1%.
. , 1992 . -- - ,
. -. . , ,
39% : ; 29%: .
, 57% ,
. 4% ,
White J. Still Seeing Red.
How the Cold War Shapes the New American Politics. Boulder (Co.), 1997. P. 202.
74
Dole R. Shaping American Global Future // Foreign Policy. Spring 1995. No 98.
P. 2943.
75
Brzezinski Zb. The Grand Chessboard. P. 3.
76
Kagan R. The Benevolent Empire // Foreign Policy. Summer 1998. No 111. P. 2435.
77
The New Russian Foreign Policy / Ed. by M. Mandelbaum. N.Y., 1998. P. 122.
78
Abshire D. U.S. Global Policy: Toward an Agile Strategy // The Washington Quarterly. Spring 1996. Vol. 19. No 2. P. 4161.
79
Layne Ch. From Preponderance to Offshore Balancing. Americas Future Grand
Strategy // International Security. Summer 1997. Vol. 22. No 1. P. 86124.
80
Kennan G. Around the Cragged Hill: A Personal and Political Philosophy. N.Y.,
1993. P. 183.
81
Maynes Ch. Bottom-up Foreign Policy // Foreign Policy. Fall 1996. No 104. P. 4648.
82
Huntington S. The Lonely Superpower // Foreign Affairs. MarchApril 1999.
Vol. 78. No 2. P. 3549.
83
Conry B. U.S. Global Leadership. A Euphemism for World Policeman // Cto
Institute Policy Analysis. 1997. February 5. No 267. P. 57.
84
Smith S. U.S. Democracy Promotion: Critical Questions / American Democracy
Promotion / Ed. by M. Cox, J. Ikenberry and T. Inoguchi. Oxford, 1999. P. 6182.
. , . , ,
-, ,
.
85
. : Wills G. Bully of the Free World // Foreign Affairs. March/April 1999.
Vol. 78. No 2. P. 5059.
86
. , , , ,
, , , , . ,
, ,
.
72

228

,
, . . // . 1996. 4. . 181182.
87
Brzezinski Zb. The Grand Chessboard. P. 211.
88
Maynes Ch. A Closing Word // Foreign Policy. Spring 1997. No 106. P. 821.
89
. , - ,
, , ( ),
, , . , , .
, .
90
Danner M. Marooned in the Cold War. America, the Alliance, and the Quest for a
Vanished World // World Policy Journal. Fall 1997. Vol. XIV. No 3. P. 123; . :
Schwarz B. Permanent Interests, Endless Threats. Cold War Continuities and NATO Enlargement // World Policy Journal. Fall 1997. Vol. XIV. No 3. P. 2430; Maynes Ch. The
Perils of (and for) an Imperial America // Foreign Policy. Summer 1998. No 111. P. 3648.
91
Haass R. Fatal Distraction: Bill Clintons Foreign Policy // Foreign Policy. Summer
1997. No 107. P. 112123.
92
. / . . ., 1997. . 733737.
93
The 2000 Democratic National Platform: Prosperity, Progress and Peace.
National Democratic Party Convention. Los Angeles, August 1418, 2000.
[ ]. : http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.
php?pid=29612#axzz1XNQYao9b.
94
., : Cutter B., Spero J., and Tyson L. New World, New Deal. A Democratic Approach to Globalization // Foreign Affairs. March/April 2000. Vol. 79. No 2.
P. 8098; Walt S. Two Cheers for Clintons Foreign Policy // Foreign Affairs. March/April
2000. Vol. 79. No 2. P. 6379.
95
Republican Platform of 2000. The American Dream: Prosperity with a Purpose.
July 31, 2000. [ ]. : http://www.presidency.ucsb.
edu/ws/index.php?pid=25849#axzz1XNQYao9b.
96
The Ottawa Citizen. 1999. November 26.
97
Rice C. Promoting National Interest // Foreign Affairs. January/February 2000.
Vol. 79. No 1. P. 4562; Zoellick R. A Republican Foreign Policy // Foreign Affairs. January/February 2000. Vol. 79. No 1. P. 6378.
98
. : Sunday Telegraph. 2000. January 16.
99
. : Los Angeles Times. 1999. November 23.
100
Podhoretz N. Strange Bedfellows: A Guide to the New Foreign-Policy Debates //
Commentary. December 1999. Vol. 108. No 5. P. 1931.
101
Ikenberry J. American Grand Strategy in the Age of Terror // Survival. Winter
2001/02. Vol. 43. No 4. P. 1934.
102
Walt S. Beyond bin Laden // International Security. Winter 2001/02. Vol. 26. No 3.
P. 5678.
103
Posen B. The Struggle Against Terrorism: Grand Strategy, Strategy, and Tactics //
International Security. Winter 2001/02. Vol. 26. No 3. P. 3955.
104
Mead W. Armed with a Big Stick, How Loudly May We Speak? // The Los Angeles
Times. 2001. March 4.
105
The State of the Union Address by the President of the United States. Congressional
Record. House. Tuesday, January 29, 2002. 107th Congress, 2nd Session. 148 Cong. Rec
H 98. Vol. 148. No 5. P. H100.

229

The Weekly Standard. 2002. March 4.


The Weekly Standard. 2001. November 12.
108
McFaul M. The Liberty Doctrine // Policy Review. April/May 2002. No 112.
P. 124.
109
. ? / . .; .
. . . ., 2002. . 34.
110
. . // : . 2000. 12. . 3334.
111
The National Security Strategy of the United States of America. September 2002.
[ ]. : http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.
gov/nsc/nss/2002/.
112
Krauthammer Ch. The Unipolar Moment Revisited // The National Interest. Winter
2002/2003. P. 517.
113
The National Interest. SeptemberOctober, 2002. P. 634. [ ]. : http://nationalinterest.org/issue/sept-oct-2002.
114
Hendrickson D. Toward Universal Empire. The Dangerous Quest for Absolute
Security // The World Policy Journal. Fall 2002. Vol. XIX. No 3. P. 110.
115
Ikenberry G. Americas Imperial Ambition // Foreign Affairs. SeptemberOctober
2002. Vol. 81. No 5. P. 4460.
116
Mandelbaum M. The Inadequacy of American Power // Foreign Affairs. September
October 2002. Vol. 81. No 5. P. 6173.
117
The 2004 Republican National Platform. P. 1. [ ].
: http://www.republicans.org.
118
The 2004 Democratic National Platform for America. Strong at Home, Respected
in the World. P. 1. [ ]. : http://www.democrats.org.
119
The 2004 Republican National Platform. P. 21.
120
. : International Affairs. January 2005. Vol. 81. No 1. P. 6.
121
The 2004 Democratic National Platform for America. P. 3.
122
Kagan R. Iraq and Averages // The Washington Post. 2004. October 4.
123
Kagan R. The Kerry Doctrine // The Washington Post. 2004. August 1.
124
Betts R. The Political Support System for American Primacy // International Affairs.
January 2005. Vol. 81. No 1. P. 2.
125
., : Lieven A. America Right or Wrong. An Anatomy of American
Nationalism. L.; N.Y., 2005.
126
Betts R. The Political Support System for American Primacy. P. 7.
127
Encarnacion O. The Follies of Democratic Imperialism // World Policy Journal.
Spring 2005. Vol. XXII. No 1. P. 4760.
128
Rieff D. Blueprint for a Mess // The New York Times Magazine. 2003. November 2.
P. 72.
129
Hendrickson D. & Tucker R. The Freedom Crusade // The National Interest. Fall
2005. No 81. P. 1921.
130
The National Security Strategy. The White House. March 16, 2006. [
]. : http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/nsc/nss/2006.html.
131
Layne Ch. The Peace of Illusions. American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present. Ithaca, 2006. P. 118122.
132
Carothers Th. The Democracy Crusade Myth // The National Interest Online. 2007.
June 5. [ ]. : http://www.nationalinterest.org.
133
Carothers Th. U.S. Democracy Promotion During and After Bush. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Washington, D.C.: CEIP, 2007. P. vvi, 1216, 1920, 25.
134
Brzezinski Z. Second Chance. Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower. N.Y., 2007. P. 37.
106

107

230

135
. : Layne Ch. The Peace of Illusions. P. 118; Fukuyama F. America at the
Crossroads. P. 86.
136
Brzezinski Z. Second Chance. P. 135157.
137
Fukuyama F. America at the Crossroads. P. 176180.
138
2000 Warsaw Ministerial. [ ]. : http://www.
state.gov/g/drl/c10710.htm.
139
Remarks by John McCain to the Los Angeles World Affairs Council. 2008. 26 March.
[ ]. : http://www.johnmccain.com/actioncenter/
print.aspx?r.
Senator McCain Urges NATO Renaissance. Calls for Global Order of Peace
Built on a Foundation of Freedom. 2008. February 8. [ ].
: http://mccain.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressOffice.
PressReleases&C
140
Libertys Best Hope: Why American Leadership Is Needed for the 21st Century /
Kim R. Holmes, PhD., Henry R. Nau, PhD., and Dove Zakheim, PhD. Heritage Lecture.
2008. March 4. P. 5 // [ ]. : www.heritage.org.
141
Kagan R., Daalder I. The Next Intervention // The Washington Post. 2007. August 6.
[ ]. : http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications.
142
Rice C. Rethinking the National Interest. American Realism for a New World //
Foreign Affairs. July/August 2008. [ ]. : http://
www.foreignaffairs.org/20080701faessay87401.
143
, , ( )
( ) . . ,
, - ,
.
, ,
( ).
144
., : Clinton H. R. Security and Opportunity for the Twenty-first Century // Foreign Affairs. 2007. NovemberDecember. [ ].
: www.foreignaffairs.org/20071101faessay86601.
145
Holbrooke R. The Next President. Mastering a Daunting Agenda // Foreign Affairs.
2008. SeptemberOctober. [ ]. : http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20080901faessay87501/richard-holbrooke.
146
Remarks of Senator Barack Obama to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. 2007.
April 23. [ ]. : http://www.thechicagocouncil.
org/dynamic_page.php?id=64; Barack Obamas Foreign Policy Speech. 2007, 2 October.
[ ]. : http://www.cfr.org/publications/14356.
147
Ibidem.
148
Gelb L. Policy Isnt Just Analysis // The American Interest. January/February 2010.
Vol. V. No 3. P. 21. . 1999 .
Huntington S. The Lonely Superpower // Foreign Affairs.
MarchApril 1999. Vol. 78. No 2. P. 3549.
149
Ikenberry J. The Right Grand Strategy // The American Interest. January/February
2010. Vol. V. No 3. P. 17.
150
Remarks by the President in State of the Union Address. U.S. Capitol. January 27,
2010. [ ]. : http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pressoffice/remarks-president-state-union-address.

231

,

.
. ,
,
. ,
, ( ),
(). , , ,
.
151
National Security Strategy of the United States of America. The White House.
Washington. D.C. May 2010. [ ]. : http://www.
whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2010.
152
Ibidem.
153
, (
, 1980- , 2000 .).
? , . , ,
, , . .
154
Nuclear Posture Review Report. U.S. Department of Defense. April 2010.
[ ]. : http://www.defense.gov.
155
Active Engagement, Modern Defense. Strategic Concept for the Defense and Security of the Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization adopted by Heads of State
and Government in Lisbon. Lisbon, Portugal. 2010. 1920 November. [
]. : http://ww.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_68580.htm.
156
Remarks on the Future of European Security. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Secretary
of State. LEcole Militaire. Paris, France. 2010. January 29. [ ].
: http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/01/136273.htm.
157

. / DOD News Briefing with Secretary Gates,
Navy Adm. Mullen, Secretary Clinton, and Secretary Chu from the Pentagon. 2010.
April 6. [ ]. : http://www.defense.gov/Transcripts/
Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=4599.
158
Bacevich A. J. Washington Rules. Americas Path to Permanent War. P. 1415.
159
Fulbright J. W. The Arrogance of Power. N.Y., 1966. P. 34.
160
Foreign Policy Address at the Council on Foreign Relations. 2009. July 15.
[ ]. : http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/
july/12607.htm.
161
Interview on NBC-TV The Today Show with Matt Lauer. 1998. February 19. [ ]. : http://secretary/state.gov/www/
statements/1998/980219a.html.
162
. : Bacevich A. J. Washington Rules. Americas Path to Permanent War. P. 235.

232

163
. . ,
.
.: . . // . 2010. C. 3. . 8. . 415.
164

. . ,
: 22,6%;
12 ., 95,2% 96,8%.
( 0,55% );
50 ; . .: . . - // . 2010. . 3. . 8. . 2122.
165
. : Bacevich A. J. Washington Rules. Americas Path to Permanent War.
P. 245246.
166
Mead W. R. The Tea Party and American Foreign Policy // Foreign Affairs. March/
April 2011. Vol. 90. No 2. P. 44.
167
,
- . (
), ,
, ( ), , .
(17671845),
:
;
; , 1862 . ;
. ,
, , ; , , 1828 .,
. . .: . - /
. . . . ., 1996. . 465466; Mead Walter R. The Tea Party and American
Foreign Policy. P. 33.
168
Mandelbaum M. The Frugal Superpower. Americas Global Leadership in a CashStrapped Era. N.Y., 2010. P. 33.
169
- // . 1992. 45. . 12.
170
. : Posen B. and Ross A. Competing Visions for U.S. Grand Strategy. P. 3334.
1992 .
.
.

233

171
Brzezinski Zb. The Cold War and Its Aftermath // Foreign Affairs. Fall 1992. Vol. 71.
No 4. P. 3149.
172
Brzezinski Zb. The Great Transformation // The National Interest. Fall 1993. No 33.
P. 313.
173
. . // . 1994. 5.
. 731.
174
. ., . ., . . -
: . .: , 1995; . ., . . // . 1996.
29 .
175
() 1995 .,
. , . , . , . , . . ,
, . ,
,
.
176
Mead W. No Cold War Two. The United States and the Russian Federation // World
Policy Journal. Summer 1994. Vol. XI. No 2. P. 117.
177
Sestanovich S. Andrei the Giant // The New Republic. 1994. April 11. P. 2427.
178
The Washington Post. 1994. December 26.
179
. . I : ,
// . 1996. 10. . 313.
180
. : Congressional Record. 1996. January 24. 104th Congress, 2nd Session,
142 Cong. Rec. E 80. Vol. 142. No 9.
181
Chicago Tribune. 1996. February 12.
182
Newsday. 1996. February 7.
183
The Washington Post. 1995. December 22.
184
Garnett Sh. Russias Illusory Ambitions // Foreign Affairs. March/April 1997.
Vol. 76. No 2. P. 6176.
185
Garnett Sh. Europes Crossroads: Russia and the West in the New Borderlands / The
New Russian Foreign Policy. P. 9195.
186
.

, . ,
,
. , , , -
. ,

, , , ,
,
, ,
. Brzezinski Zb., Scowcroft B.,
Murphy R. Differential Containment // Foreign Affairs. March/April 1997. Vol. 76. No 3.
P. 2030; Brzezinski Zb. The Grand Chessboard. P. 3940.
187
Sicherman H. The Revenge of Geopolitics // Orbis. Winter 1997. Vol. 41. No 1.
P. 1213.

234

188
Kennan G. F. On American Principles // Foreign Affairs. March/April 1995. Vol. 74.
No 2. P. 116136.
189
Bradley B. Eurasia Letter: A Misguided Russian Policy // Foreign Policy. Winter
1995/96. No 101. P. 8197.
190
Matlock G., Jr. Dealing With a Russia in Turmoil // Foreign Affairs. May/June 1996.
Vol. 75. No 3. P. 3851.
191
Maynes Ch. Bottom-Up Foreign Policy. P. 4344.
192
. . // . 1998.
6. . 39.
193
Goldgeier J. Not Whether but When. The U.S. Decision to Enlarge NATO. Wash.,
D.C., 1999.
194
Gaddis J. History, Grand Strategy and NATO Enlargement // Survival. Spring 1998.
Vol. 40. No 1. P. 146151.
195
Cato Handbook for Congress: Policy Recommendations for the 107th Congress.
Wash., D.C., 2000. P. 545551, 599607.
196
Managing NATO Enlargement. Special Report. U.S. Institute of Peace. Wash.,
1997.
197
. . // . 1997.
26 ; . // . 1996. 2531 .
198
, .:
. . . . 234318.
199
Republican Platform of 2000. The American Dream: Prosperity with a Purpose.
2000. July 31. [ ]. : http://www.presidency.ucsb.
edu/ws/index.php?pid=25849#axzz1XNQYao9b; Rice C. Promoting National Interest //
Foreign Affairs. January/February 2000. Vol. 79. No 1. P. 4562.
200
Issues 2000. Issue Report. Wash.: The Heritage Foundation, 2000. P. 6988.
201
Priorities for the President / Ed. by Stuart M. Butler and Kim R. Holmes. Wash.:
The Heritage Foundation, 2001. ,
, . , . , . , .
, . , .
. .
202
What Is to Be Undone? A Russia Policy Agenda for the New Administration. Wash.:
The Nixon Center, 2001.
203
The 2000 Democratic National Platform: Prosperity, Progress and Peace.
National Democratic Party Convention. Los Angeles. 2000. August 1418.
[ ]. : http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.
php?pid=29612#axzz1XNQYao9b.
204
., : Cutter B., Spero J., and Tyson L. New World, New Deal. A Democratic Approach to Globalization // Foreign Affairs. March/April 2000. Vol. 79. No . P. 8098.
205
McFaul M. Getting Russia Right // Foreign Policy. Winter 19992000. No 117.
P. 5871.
206
McFaul M. Russias 2000 Presidential Elections: Implications for Russian Democracy and U.S.-Russian Relations. Hearings. Committee on Foreign Relations. U.S. Senate.
2000. April 12.
, . : ;
,
, , ,

235

, ,
.
207
.: An Agenda for Renewal. A Report by the Russian and Eurasian Program of the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Wash., 2000. P. 37.
208
.
, , , ; ,
, ( ),
(, ) Maynes Ch. A New Strategy for Old Foes
and New Friends. Houston World Affairs Council. 2000. March 28. . : .
. / .
. ., 2001.
209
Countermeasures. A Technical Evaluation of the Operational Effectiveness of the
Planned U.S. National Missile Defense System. Executive Summary. Union of Concerned
Scientists. Cambridge, Mass., 2000; Group Urges President to Bar Missile Defense // The
Washington Post. 2000. June 13.
210
, , , . , . , . . .: OHanlon M. Star Wars Strikes Back // Foreign
Affairs. November/December 1999. Vol. 78. No 6. P. 6882; CIA vs. SDI: Does a Letter
Make a Difference? // The Defense Monitor. 1999. Vol. XXVIII. No 8; The Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty // The Defense Monitor. 1999. Vol. XXVIII. No 7; Americas Future:
Confrontation or Cooperation // The Defense Monitor. 1999. Vol. XXVIII. No 3.
211
An Agenda for Renewal. P. 1719.
212
May M. The U.S. Enlargement Strategy and Nuclear Weapons. Center for
International Security and Cooperation. Stanford University. March 2000. P. 1113.
213
. . .
, // . 2000. 7 . 19.
214
Simes D. After the Collapse. Russia Seeks Its Place as a Great Power. N.Y., 1999.
215
. . - : //
, , . 1994. 12. . 312; . . // . 1998. 17 .
216
1990- . , ,
. . ., . . // . 1996. 29 .
217
Mann J. Rise of the Vulcans. The History of Bushs War Cabinet. N.Y., 2004.
218
Talbott S. The Russia Hand. A Memoir of Presidential Diplomacy. N.Y., 2002. P. 292.
219
The New York Times. 2001. June 15.
220
Kuchins A. U.S.-Russian Relations: An Agenda for Renewal. Speech at the
Commonwealth Club, San Francisco CA. 2001. March 26.
221
The Weekly Standard. 2001. November 12.
222
Cohen A. Promoting Security, Prosperity, and Freedom. Issues 2002. [ ]. : www.heritage.org.
223
McFaul M. The Liberty Doctrine. P. 22. , : Mendelson S. Russians Rights Imperiled: Has
Anybody Noticed? // International Security. Spring 2002. Vol. 26. No 4. P. 3969.

236

Ikenberry J. American Grand Strategy in the Age of Terror. P. 3031.


Billington J. Okay, Theyve Met, Now Lets Get Engaged // The Washington Post.
2001. June 17.
226
Legvold R. All the Way. Crafting a U.S.-Russia Alliance // The National Interest.
Winter 2002/03. P. 2131.
227
, , , -, ,
,
, .
228
Kuchins A. Look Whos Back // The Wall Street Journal. 2006. May 9. [ ]. : http://www.carnegie.ru/en/74116.
229
. . // . 2004. . 3. . 2. . 417.
230
Russias Wrong Direction: What the United States Can and Should Do. Report of
an Independent Task Force. Council on Foreign Relations, 2006.
231
. 10 2007 // . [ ]. : http://www.stringer.ru/
publication.mhtml?Part=50&PubID=7070.
232
. :
/ . .; . . . ., 2004. . 89.
233
Wallander C. The Challenge of Russia for U.S. Policy. Testimony before the Committee on Foreign relations. U.S. Senate. 2005. June 21. P. 34, 89.
234
McFaul M. Russia and the West: A Dangerous Drift // Current History. October
2005. P. 307312; Goldgeier J. and McFaul M. What to Do About Russia // Policy Review.
October/November 2005. No 133. P. 4562.
235
Aslund A. Ukraine at a Crossroads // The Washington Post. 2004. September 29.
236
McFaul M. Putin Gambles Big and Loses. [ ].
: www.ceip.org.
237
The Washington Post. 2004. December 21.
238
. : Tefft J. Ukraine and the United States. The Challenges Ahead. Remarks to
the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. Chicago (Ill.). 2005. February 7.
239
The Bush Doctrine. What the President Said and What It Means. Heritage lecture
No 881. June 2, 2005. [ ]. : www.heritage.org.
240
Allison R. Regionalism, Regional Structures and Security Management in Central
Asia // International Affairs. May 2004. Vol. 80. No 3. P. 475477.
241
Cohen A. Getting Ukraine to Safe Shores. Executive memorandum No 956. 2005.
January 27. The Heritage Foundation. [ ]. : www.
heritage.org.
. , . ,
,
, .
242
Lieven A. To Russia with Love // The American Conservative. 2007. March 26.
243
Baran Z. Uzbekistan: The Key to Success in Central Asia? Testimony before the
Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia. The House Committee on Foreign
Relations. 2004. June 24. [ ]. : http://www.nixoncenter.org.
244
1999 ., . 2002 . 2005 .
224
225

237

. , . , , .

.
245
. . -
// (Oriens). 2005. 1. . 105.
246
. . 108.
247
Aslund A. Democracy in Retreat in Russia. Testimony before the U.S. Senate.
Committee on Foreign Relations. January 2005. [ ]. : www.ceip.org.
248
,
, , . , (. . ) .
249
Lieven A. America Right or Wrong. An Anatomy of American Nationalism. L.,
2004. P. 162.
250
. 10 2007 // . [ ]. : http://www.stringer.ru/
publication.mhtml?Part=50&PubID=7070.
251
Layne Ch. The Peace of Illusions. P. 145146, 188.
252
Gaddy C., Hill F. Horse Trading as Foreign Policy: Dangers of the Bush-Putin Summit. The Brookings Institution. 2003. September 24. [ ].
: www.brookings.org.
253
President Discusses American and European Alliance in Belgium. 2005. February
21. [ ]. : http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/02/.
254
National Security Strategy of the United States of America. March 2006.
[ ]. : http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2006.
255
Democracy in Russia: Trends and Implications for U.S. Interests. CRS Report for
Congress. 2006. August 29. P. 3338.
256
,
,
, . ( ) ,
, ,
, .
257
Fukuyama F. America at the Crossroads. Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative
Legacy. P. 6970.
258
: Democracy in Russia: Trends and Implications for U.S. Interests. CRS
Report for Congress. 2006. August 29. P. 26.
( ) , , , , .

2006 . . . , , , ,

238

, ( ),
.
259
United States Department of State. Supporting Human Rights and Democracy:
The U.S. Record 2006. April 5, 2007. P. 133137.
260
Testimony of Bruce Pitcairn Jackson Before the US Senate Committee on Foreign
Relations On Democracy in Russia. 2005. February 17. [ ].
: http://www.newamericancentury.org/russia-20050217).
261
Gvosdev N., Mendelson S. What Will Russia Resemble after Putin? Online Debate.
2007. February 02. [ ]. : http://www.cfr.org.
262
Lipman M. The Russian Revival // Daily Times. 2006. August 10. [
]. : http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications.
263
Cohen A. The G-8 Summit. Putting U.S.-Russia Relations Back on Track. 2007.
June 5. [ ]. : www.heritage.org.
264
Kuchins A. Dead Journalists In Putins Russia. 2007. March 19. [
]. : http://www.csis.org.
265
United States Department of State. Supporting Human Rights and Democracy:
The U.S. Record 2008, 2009. [ ]. : http://www.
state.gov.
266
Nations in Transit 2007. [ ]. : www.
freedomhouse.org.
267
[ ]. : http://www.freedomhouse.org/
uploads/nit/2009/tables-WEB.pdf
268
Brzezinski Z. Second Chance. P. 168, 188189, 210.
269
Layne Ch. The Peace of Illusions. P. 145146.
270
Lieven A. To Russia with Realism // The American Conservative. 2007. March 26.
[ ]. : www.newamerica.org.
271
. . // . 2009. . 3. . 6. . 1525.
[ ]. : www.intertrends.ru.
272
Kuchins A. Russian Democracy and Civil Society: Back to the Future. Testimony for
the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe. 2006. February 8. [ ]. : http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications.
273
. . : // :
. 2007. 3. [
]. : http://www.rusus.ru/print.php?id=61.
274
. . // . 2008. 13 . [ ]. : http://www.ng.ru/
politics/2008-05-13/3_kartblansh.html.
275
Graham Th. U.S.-Russia Relations. Facing Reality Pragmatically. CSIS IFRI
Project. Project Co-Directors A. Kuchins and Th. Gomart. July 2008. [ ]. : http://www.csis.org; http://www.ifri.org.
276
1990- . , 2008 . . . 2009 . . . , , : . . // . 2009.
. 3. [ ]. : http://www.globalaffairs.
ru/numbers/38/11949.html.
277
Brzezinski Z. and Scowcroft B. America and the World. Conversations on the Future
of American Foreign Policy. N.Y., 2008. P. 113125.
278
Cohen A., Szaszdi L., and Dolbow J. The New Cold War: Reviving the U.S. Presence
in the Arctic. Backgrounder No 2202. October 30, 2008. The Heritage Foundation. [ ]. : http://www.heritage.org.

239

,
,
. , ,
( )
, .
2006 2008 .,
, ( ), (),
,

. . , , ,
.
279
McCain J. An Enduring Peace Built on Freedom. Securing Americas Future //
Foreign Affairs. 2007. November/December. [ ]. :
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20071101faessay86602/john-mccain/an-enduring-peace.
280
Zakaria F. McCain Vs. McCain // Newsweek. 2008. 26 April. [
]. : http:///www.newsweek.com/id/134317.
281
Remarks of Senator Barack Obama to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. 2007.
23 April. [ ]. : http://www.thechicagocouncil.org/
dynamic_page.php?id=64.
282
Barack Obamas Foreign Policy Speech. 2007. 2 October. [
]. : http://www.cfr.org/publications/14356.
283
Clinton H. R. Security and Opportunity for the Twenty-first Century. [
]. : http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20071101faessay86601/hillaryrodham-clinton/security-and-opportunity-for-the-twenty-first-century.html.
284
Ibidem.
285
Aslund A. and Kuchins A. Pressing the Reset Button on US-Russia Relations.
Policy Brief. Washington, D.C.: CSIS. March 2009. [ ].
: http://www.csis.org.
286
Rumer E. and Stent A. Repairing U.S.-Russian Relations: A Long Road Ahead.
INSS CERES, April 2009. P. 31.
287
. // . 2009.
. 4. [ ]. : http://www.globalaffairs.
ru/12357.html.
288
Russia and Eurasia. A Realistic Policy Agenda for the Obama Administration / Ed.
by A. Cohen. Heritage Special Report. 2009. March 27. [ ].
: www.heritage.org/research/RussiaandEurasia/sr0049.cfm.
289
President Obama. One Year On // The American Interest. January/February 2010.
Vol. V. No 3. P. 431.
290
. // . 2009.
. 4. [ ]. : http://www.globalaffairs.
ru/12357.html.
291
. . .
// . 2009. . 3. . 7.
. 2536; . . //
. 2009. . 3. . 7. . 1624; -

240

. .
// : . 2009. 2. . 321;
. . // . 2008. . 3. . 6. . 414.
292
Cohen A. The Real World: Putin in Libya. Backgrounder. 2008. 18 April. [ ]. : http://www.heritage.org.
2011 .,
,
.
293
Khanna P. The Second World. P. 7178.
294
Brzezinski Z. and Scowcroft B. America and the World. P. 69.
295
. . . . [
]. : http://www.mgimo.ru/system/php/print.phtml?url=%2Fexp
erts%2Fdocument.
296
2010 . ,
,
(, ).
297
. 5 2010 .
. [ ]. : http://news.kremlin.ru/ref_notes/461.
298
, , ,
, .
,
,
- ( ),
() ( ) / . . [ ]. : http://news.kremlin.ru/ref_notes/461.
299
. : . . 1 / . .
. . . .: , 2011. . 132232.
300
Charap S. Theres No One Under the Bus. The Charges that U.S. Allies Have Been
Betrayed by the Russian Reset is Simply False. 2010. June 16. // [ ].
: http://www.foreignpolicy.com.
301
. : . ., . ., . . . . 19922007 . ., 2009.
302
Kagan R. The Perils of Wishful Thinking // The American Interest. January/
February 2010. Vol. V. No 3. P. 15.
303
Perle R. The Open Hand, Slapped // The American Interest. January/February
2010. Vol. V. No 3. P. 1011.
304
Charap S. Theres No One Under the Bus. [ ]. : http://www.foreignpolicy.com.
305
Saunders P. Obama Goal of Resetting U.S.-Russia Relationship Remains Fraught
with Problems. [ ]. : http://politics.usnews.com/
opinion/articles/2010/06/23/russian-american-obstacles.

241

Ibid.
Excerpts: Biden on Eastern Europe // The Wall Street Journal. 2009. July 24.
308
Democracy and Authoritarianism in the Post-ommunist World / Ed. by V. Bunce,
M. McFaul, K. Stoner-Weiss. Cambridge, 2010.
309
.
, ,
Cohen A. Russian Reset a Cold War Restart.
2011. August 8. [ ]. : http://nationalinterest.org/
commentary/russian-reset-cold-war-restart-5717.
310
. . //
. 2009. . 3. . 7.. . 24.
311
Charap S. Reset This. What Is Behind the Ginned-Up Crisis in U.S.-Russia
Relations? 2011. August 15. [ ]. : http://www.
americanprogress.org/issues/2011/08/atw_charap_foreignpolicy.
312
Drezner D. American Foreign Policy toward Russia: Is a U-Turn, or Any Turn
Possible? // The Policy World Meets Academia. Designing U.S. Policy toward Russia / Ed.
by T. Colton, and R. Legvold. American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2010. P. 97107.
[ ]. : http://www.amacad.org.
313
., . // . 2010. . 1. [
]. : http://www.globalaffairs.ru.
314
. , () , , ,
, .
, /
Charap S. Principled Integration. A U.S. Policy Response to the Economic Challenge
Posed by Russia. Center for American Progress, 2010. [ ].
: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/06/Russia_economy.html.
315
. . .
? // . 07.09.2009. [
]. : http://www.ng.ru/numbers/230497.
316
. . // . 2009. . 3. [ ]. : http://www.
globalaffairs.ru/numbers/38/11949.html.
317
. . // . . 25.09.2009. [ ]. : http://nvo.ng.ru/printed/231324.
318
. . //
. 2009. . 3. . 7. . 21.
306

307

242


. . // . 2007. . 2. . 5. . 5263. [ ]. : http://www.intertrends.ru).
. . - // , , . 1985. 6. . 4046.
. . - : //
, , . 1994. 12. . 312.
. . 2000- // . 2010. . 1. . 8. . 413.
. . ( ). .: , 2005.
. . . .: , 2009.
. ., . ., . . . : 1992
2007 . .: , 2009.
. . . (19451995).
.: , 1996.
. . .
// . 2009. . 3. . 7.
. 2536.
. .
XXI . // . 2007. 9. . 114122.
. . // . 2007. . 1. . 5. . 5469. [ ]. : http://www.intertrends.ru.
. . //
. 2006. C. 3. . 4. . 515. [ ]. : http://www.intertrends.ru.
. .
// .
2001. 2. . 2029.
: : 4 . /
. . . . . .: , 2002.
. . // . 2000. 4. . 724.
. / .
. . . . .: , 2006.
. . . . .: , 2007.
. .
// . 2007. 8.
. 3141.
- . .
// . 2000.
7. . 1529.

243

. . : // . 1999. 5. . 2651.
. ., . .
( ). .: ,
2009.
. . , //
: . 1999. 7. . 316.
. . //
: . 2000. 3. . 1230.
. . ? //
. 2002. 4. . 2939.
., . : . / .
. .: , 1995.
. . . [
] // . 2000. 1. . 1426.
. . : // . 2007. 3.
. 7384.
. . .
. .: -, 2002.
. . // . 2009. . 3. [ ]. : http://www.
globalaffairs.ru/numbers/38/11949.html.
/ . . . . . .: - .
-, 1987.
. . .: , 1997.
. / . .: , 1997.
. . // . 1995. 5.
. 515.
. . . .: - , 2006.
. . : - . .: - . -, 1989.
. . //
. 1999. 7. . 311.
. . . .: ,
2011.
. . // . 2008. . 3. . 4. . 1525.
. . , // Pro et Contra. 2000.
2. . 5. . 121137.
. . // Pro et
Contra. 2001. 12. . 6. . 730.
. .
/ . . .: -, 2001.
. . // .
2006. C. 3. . 4. . 5261. [ ]. : http://www.intertrends.ru.
. . : // : . 1999. 1. . 519.

244

. . : // . 2011. . 1. . 9. . 414. [ ]. : http://www.intertrends.ru.


. . //
. 2001. 4. . 3039.
. . : . .: -
, 1997.
. . XXI : P
Democratica? // . 2000. 1. . 2337.
. . : ? // . 2007. 4. [ ]. : http://www.globalaffairs.
ru/numbers/27/8063.html.
. . . ? // . 1999. 1.
. 1526.
. / . .
. . . . . .: , 2009.
. . , ( ). .: - . 1998.
. . ? //
. 1998. 6. . 7885.
. . // . 1996. 9. . 2640.
. . ORDO QUADRO : // . 2000. 6. . 623.
. . I // . 2001.
6. . 916.
. . :
XXI . .: , 1998.
. . - // .
2006. . 1. . 4. . 3040. [ ]. :
http://www.intertrends.ru.
. . : //
. 1998. 7. . 8296.
. . // .
1992. 89. . 515.
. . . .:
, 1999.
. . // . 1998.
6. . 39.
. / . . . . .: , 2005.
I / . .
. . . . . .: , 2007.

/ . . . . , . . , . . . .: , 1984.
. . . .: , 1997.
/ . . . . . .: , 1987.

245

. . - // :
. 2006. 2. . 330; 2006. 3. . 332.
. . . .: , 1998.
. . 11 2001 .: . .: , 2001.
: / .
. . . . . .: , 2005.
- 1999
2000 . / . . . . . .: , 2001.
. / . . . . . .: , 2008.
/ . . . . . .: , 1999.
. . - //
. 2010. . 3. . 8.
. . // . 2002. 6. . 2133.
: 2 . / . . . . .: , 2006. [ ]. : http://www.
obraforum.ru.
. . 1 / . . . . . .:
, 2011.
: 2 . / . . . . . .:
, 1984.
: / . . . . .: , 2009.
/ . . . .
. . . .: , 1980.
/ . . . . . .: , 1979.
: (2001
2008 .) / . . . . . . . .: , 2009.
/ . . . . . .: , 2000.
2000 / . . . . . . . .: , 2001.
: / . . . . . .: , 1976.
. . // . 2006. . 1. . 4. [
]. : http://www.intertrends.ru.
. . // . 2009. . 3. . 7. . 1624.
. . // . 1999. 12. . 4552.
. . ? //
. 1990. 12. . 3951.
. . // . 1996. 9. . 7685.
. . : , , . .: , 1976.
. . // . 2002. 7. . 7586.
. . : ? // : , , . 1997. 3.
. 7383.

246

. . . .: , 2002.
. . . . .: , 1997.
. . :
? // : . 2000.
11. . 5468.
. .
// : . 2009.
2. . 321.
. . // . 2008. . 3. . 6. . 414.
. . - // . 2006. 1. [ ]. : http://www.intertrends.ru.
. . . .: - . -, 1981.
/ . .
. . . .: , 2008.
Abelson D. E. A Capital Idea. Think Tanks and US Foreign Policy. Quebec: McGill
Queens University Press, 2006.
Abelson D. E. Do Think Tanks Matter? Assessing the Impact of Public Policy Institutes.
Montreal & Kingston: McGill Queens University Press, 2002.
Abshir D. M. U.S. Global Policy: Toward an Agile Strategy // The Washington Quarterly. Spring 1996. Vol. 19. No 2. P. 4161.
Aldred K. and Smith M. A. Superpowers in the Post-Cold War Era. N.Y.: St. Martins
Press, 1999.
Allison G. and Blackwill R. Americas Stake in the Soviet Future // Foreign Affairs.
Summer 1991. Vol. 70. No 3. P. 7797.
Allison R. Regionalism, Regional Structures and Security Management in Central
Asia // International Affairs. May 2004. Vol. 80. No 3. P. 463483.
An Agenda for Renewal. U.S.-Russian Relations. A Report by the Russian and Eurasian
Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Washington, D.C., 2000.
American Democracy Promotion. Impulses, Strategies, and Impacts / Ed. by Michael
Cox, G. John Ikenberry, Takashi Inoguchi. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000.
Aslund A. and Kuchins A. Pressing the Reset Button on US-Russia Relations. Washington, D.C.: CSIS, March 2009. [ ]. : http://
www.csis.org.
Ayoob M. and Zierler M. The Unipolar Concert. The North-South Divide Trumps
Transatlantic Differences // World Policy Journal. Spring 2005. Vol. XXII. No 1. P. 3142.
Baevich A. J. The Limits of Power. The End of American Exceptionalism. N.Y.: Metropolitan Books, 2009.
Bacevich A. J. Washington Rules. Americas Path to Permanent War. Americas Path to
Permanent War. N.Y.: Metropolitan Books, 2010.
Barnett Th. The Pentagon New Map. War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century. N.Y.:
G. P. Putnams Sons, 2004.
Berger S. R. A Foreign Policy for the Global Age // Foreign Affairs. November/December 2000. Vol. 79. No 6. P. 2239.
Bradley B. Eurasia Letter: A Misguided Russia Policy // Foreign Policy. Winter
1995/96. No 101. P. 81115.
Brinkley D. Democratic Enlargement: The Clinton Doctrine // Foreign Policy. Spring
1997. No 106. P. 111127.

247

Breakthrough/. Emerging New Thinking: Soviet and Western Scholars Issue a


Challenge to Build a World Beyond War. N.Y.: Walker & Company, 1988.
Brzezinski Z. Second Chance. Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower. N.Y.: Basic Books, 2007.
Brzezinski Zb. and Scowcroft B. America and the World. Conversations on the Future of
American Foreign Policy. N.Y.: Basic Books, 2008.
Brzezinsk, Zb. The Grand Chessboard. American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. N.Y.: Basic Books, 1998.
Bull H. The Anarchical Society. A Study of Order in World Politics. N.Y.: Columbia
University Press, 1977.
Carothers Th. U.S. Democracy Promotion During and After Bush. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Washington, D.C.: CEIP, 2007. [ ].
: http://www.ceip.org.
Cohen E. A. Defending America in the Twenty-first Century // Foreign Affairs. November/December 2000. Vol. 79. No 6. P. 4056.
Cox M. The Necessary Partnership? The Clinton Presidency and Post-Soviet Russia //
International Affairs. October 1994. Vol. 70. No 4. P. 635659.
Christopher W. Americas Leadership, Americas Opportunity // Foreign Policy.
Spring 1995. No 98. P. 628.
Cutter B. W., Spero J., and Tyson L. New World, New Deal. A Democratic Approach
to Globalization // Foreign Affairs. March/April 2000. Vol. 79. No 2. P. 8098.
Danner M. Marooned in the Cold War. America, the Alliance, and the Quest for a
Vanished World // World Policy Journal. Fall 1997. Vol. XIV. No 3. P. 123.
Dark K. R. and Harris A. L. The New World and the New World Order. US Relative
Decline, Domestic Instability in the Americas and the End of the Cold War. N.Y.: St. Martins Press, 1996.
Dole R. Shaping American Global Future // Foreign Policy. Spring 1995. No 98.
P. 2943.
English R. D. Power, Ideas, and New Evidence on the Cold Wars End // International
Security. Spring 2002. Vol. 26. No 3. P. 7092.
Encarnacion O. The Follies of Democratic Imperialism // World Policy Journal. Spring
2005. Vol. XXII. No 1. P. 4760.
Drezner D. The New New World Order // Foreign Affairs. March/April 2007.
[ ]. : http://www.foreignaffairs.org.
Freedman L. Order and Disorder in the New World // Foreign Affairs. Winter 1991/92.
Vol. 71. No 1. P. 2037.
Fukuyama F. America at the Crossroads. Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative
Legacy. New Haven; L.: Yale University Press, 2006.
Fulbright J. W. The Arrogance of Power. N.Y.: Random House, 1966.
Gaddis J. L. History, Grand Strategy and NATO Enlargement // Survival. Spring 1998.
Vol. 40. No 1. P. 145151.
Gaddis J. L. The United States and the End of the Cold War. Implications, Reconsiderations, Provocations. N.Y.; Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992.
Garnett Sh. Russias Illusory Ambitions // Foreign Affairs. March/April 1997. Vol. 76.
No 2. P. 6176.
Garthoff R. L. The Great Transition. American-Soviet Relations and the End of the
Cold War. Wash., D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1994.
The Global Agenda. Issues and Perspectives / Ed. by Charles W. Kegley, Jr. and Eugene
R. Wittkopf. N.Y.: McGraw-Hill, Inc., 1995.
Goldgeier J. Not Whether But When. The U.S. Decision to Enlarge NATO. Wash.,
D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1999.

248

Goldgeier J. and McFaul M. What to Do About Russia // Policy Review. October/November 2005. No 133. P. 4562.
Graham Th. U.S. Russia Relations. Facing Reality Pragmatically. CSIS IFRI
Project / Project Codirectors A. Kuchins and Th. Gomart. July 2008. [
]. : http://www.csis.org; http://www.ifri.org.
Gray C. NATO: Time to Call It a Day // The National Interest. Winter 1987/88.
No 10. P. 1326.
Haass R. The Age of Nonpolarity. What Will Follow U.S. Dominance // Foreign Affairs. May/June 2008. [ ]. : www.foreignaffairs.
org/20080501faessay87304.
Haass R. The Reluctant Sheriff. The United States after the Cold War. N.Y.: Council
on Foreign Relations, 1997.
Haass R. What to Do With American Primacy // Foreign Affairs. September/October
1999. Vol. 78. No 5. P. 3749.
Halper S. The Beijing Consensus. How Chinas Authoritarian Model Will Dominate
the Twenty-First Century. N.Y.: Basic Books, 2010.
Hendrickson D. & Tucker R. The Freedom Crusade // The National Interest. Fall 2005.
No 81. P. 1221.
Hunter R. E. Solving Russia: Final Piece in NATOs Puzzle // The Washington Quarterly. Winter 2000. Vol. 23. No 1. P. 115134.
Huntington S. P. The Lonely Superpower // Foreign Affairs. March/April 1999.
Vol. 78. No 2. P. 3549.
Huntington S. Dead Souls. The Denationalization of the American Elite // The National Interest. Spring 2004. No 75. P. 518.
Hyland W. G. Clintons World. Remaking American Foreign Policy. Westport (Conn.):
Praeger, 1999.
Ikenberry J. G. After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of
Order after Major Wars. Princeton (N.J.): Princeton University Press, 2001.
Ikenberry J. G. Americas Liberal Hegemony // Current History. January 1999. Vol. 98.
No 624. P. 2334.
Kagan R. The Benevolent Empire // Foreign Policy. Summer 1998. No 111. P. 2435.
Kegley Ch. W., Jr. and Raymond Gr. A Multipolar Peace? Great Power Politics in the
Twenty-first Century. N. Y.: St. Martins Press, 1994.
Kegley Ch. W., Jr. and Raymond Gr. A. When Trust Breaks Down. Alliance Norms and
World Politics. Columbia (S. Ca.): University of South Carolina Press, 1990.
Kennan G. F. At Centurys Ending: Reflections, 19821995. N.Y.: W.W. Norton &
Co., 1996.
Kennan G. F. On American Principles // Foreign Affairs. March/April 1995. Vol. 74.
No 2. P. 116136.
Khanna P. The Second World. How Emerging Powers Are Redefining Global Competition in the Twenty-First century. N.Y.: Random House, 2009.
Krauthammer Ch. The Unipolar Moment Revisited // The National Interest. Winter
2002/2003.
Kupchan Ch. After Pax Americana: Benign Power, Regional Integration, and the Sources of a Stable Multipolarity // International Security. Fall 1998. Vol. 23. No 2. P. 4079.
Kupchan Ch. Reviving the West // Foreign Affairs. May/June 1996. Vol. 75. No 3.
P. 92104.
Layne Ch. A. The Peace of Illusions. American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present. Ithaca, 2006.
Layne Ch. A. From Preponderance to Offshore Balancing // International Security.
Summer 1997. Vol. 22. No 1. P. 86112.

249

Legvold R. All the Way. Crafting a U.S.-Russian Alliance // The National Interest.
Winter 2002/03. P. 2131.
Lieven A. America Right or Wrong. An Anatomy of American Nationalism. L.: Harper
Perennial, 2004.
Lieven A. Against Russophobia // World Policy Journal. Winter 2000/2001. Vol. XVII.
No 4. P. 2532.
Mandelbaum M. The Frugal Superpower. Americas Global Leadership in a CashStrapped Era. N.Y.: PublicAffairs, 2010.
Mandelbaum M. The Case for Goliath. How America Acts as the Worlds Government
in the 21st Century. N.Y.: PublicAffairs, 2005.
Matlock J. F. Dealing with a Russia in Turmoil // Foreign Affairs. May/June 1996.
Vol 75. No 3. P. 3851.
Maynes Ch. W. Bottom-Up Foreign Policy // Foreign Policy. Fall 1996. No 104.
P. 3553.
Maynes Ch. W. A New Strategy for Old Foes and New Friends // World Policy Journal.
Summer 2000. Vol. XXII. No 2. P. 6876.
Maynes Ch. W. The Perils of (and for) an Imperial America // Foreign Policy. Summer
1998. No 111. P. 3648.
McFaul M. The Liberty Doctrine // Policy Review. April/May 2002. No 112. P. 124.
McFaul M. Getting Russia Right // Foreign Policy. Winter 1999/2000. No 117.
P. 5871.
McGann J. Scholars, Dollars and Policy Advice: A Report. Philadelphia: Foreign Policy
Research Institute, 2004.
Mead W. R. No Cold War Two // World Policy Journal. Summer 1994. Vol. XI. No 2.
P. 117.
Mead W. R. The Tea Party and American Foreign Policy // Foreign Affairs. March/
April 2011. Vol. 90. No 2.
Mearsheimer J. Hearts and Minds // The National Interest. Fall 2002. P. 1316.
Nye J. Jr. The Paradox of American Power. Why the Worlds Only Superpower Cant
Go It Alone. N.Y.: Oxford University Press, 2002.
Nye J. Jr. The Future of Power. N.Y.: Public Affairs, 2011.
Peleg I. The Legacy of George W. Bush Foreign Policy. Moving Beyond Neoconservatism. N.Y.: Westview Press, 2009.
Pipes R. Is Russia Still an Enemy? // Foreign Affairs. September/October 1997.
Vol. 76. No 5. P. 6578.
Podhoretz N. Strange Bedfellows: A Guide to the New Foreign Policy Debates //
Commentary. December 1999. Vol. 108. No 5. P. 1931.
Posen B. R. The Struggle against Terrorism: Grand Strategy, Strategy, and Tactics //
International Security. Winter 2001/02. Vol. 26. No 3. P. 3955.
Posen B. R. and Ross A. L. Competing Visions for U.S. Grand Strategy // International
Security. Winter 1996/97. Vol. 21. No 3. P. 545.
Powaski R. E. Return to Armageddon. The United States and the Nuclear Arms Race,
19811999. N.Y.: Oxford University Press, Inc., 2000.
Rice C. Promoting National Interest // Foreign Affairs. January/February 2000.
Vol. 79. No 1. P. 4562.
Rice C. Rethinking the National Interest. American Realism for a New World // Foreign Affairs. July/August 2008. [ ]. : http://www.
foreignaffairs.org/20080701faessay87401.
Rieff D. The Crusaders. Moral Principles, Strategic Interests, and Military Force //
World Policy Journal. Summer 2000. Vol. XV. No 2. P. 3947.

250

Rubinstein A. Z. Americas Stake in Russia Today // Orbis. Winter 1997. Vol. 41. No 1.
P. 3138.
Rumer E. and Stent A. Repairing U.S.-Russian Relations: A Long Road Ahead. INSS
CERES, April 2009. [ ]. : http://www.ceres.org.
Russian Foreign Policy in Transition. Anthology / Ed. by A. Melville & T. Shakleina.
Budapest; N.Y.: CEU Press, 2005.
Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century & the Shadow of the Past / Ed. by R. Legvold.
N.Y.: Columbia University Press, 2007.
Russia after the Fall / Andrew C. Kuchins (ed.). Wash., D.C.: CEIP, 2002.
Russias Wrong Direction: What the United States Can and Should Do. Report of an
Independent Task Force. Council on Foreign Relations, 2006. [ ].
: http://www.cfr.org.
Schwarz B. Permanent Interests, Endless Threats. Cold War Continuities and NATO
Enlargement // World Policy Journal. Fall 1997. Vol. XIV. No 3. P. 2430.
Sicherman H. The Revenge of Geopolitics // Orbis. Winter 1997. Vol. 41. No 1. P. 713.
Simes D. K. After the Collapse. Russia Seeks Its Place as a Great Power. N.Y.: Simon &
Schuster, 1999.
Simes D. Priorities, Not Delusions // The National Interest online. April 25, 2007.
[ ]. : http://www.nationalinterest.org.
State Building and Military Power in Russia and the New States of Eurasia / Ed. by
B. Parrott. Armonk (N.Y.); London (England): M.E. Sharpe, 1995.
Talbott S. The Russia Hand. A Memoir of Presidential Diplomacy. N.Y.: Random
House, 2002.
Think Tanks & Civil Societies. Catalysts for Ideas and Action / Ed. by J. McGann and
R. K. Weaver. New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers, 2005.
Walker M. The New American Hegemony // World Policy Journal. Summer 1996.
Vol. XIII. No 2. P. 1321.
Wallerstein I. Foes as Friends? // Foreign Policy. Spring 1993. No 90. P. 145157.
Walt S. M. Beyond bin Laden: Reshaping U.S. Foreign Policy // International Security. Winter 2001/02. Vol. 26. No 3. P. 5678.
Walt S. M. Two Cheers for Clintons Foreign Policy // Foreign Affairs. March/April
2000. Vol. 79. No 2. P. 6379.
Walt S. Taming American Power // Foreign Affairs. September/October 2005. Vol. 84.
No 5. P. 105120.
Weiss Ch. Jr. Eurasia Letter: A Marshall Plan We Can Afford // Foreign Policy. Spring
1997. No 10. P. 94109.
What Is to Be Undone? A Russia Policy Agenda for the New Administration. Wash.,
D.C.: The Nixon Center, 2001.
White K. J. Still Seeing Red. How the Cold War Shapes the New American Politics.
Boulder (Colo.): Westview Press, 1997.
Wills G. Bully of the Free World // Foreign Affairs. March/April 1999. Vol. 78. No 2.
P. 5059.
Windows of Opportunity. From Cold War to Peaceful Competition in U.S.-Soviet Relations / Ed. by Graham T. Allison and William L. Ury with Bruce J. Allyn. Cambridge
(Mass.): Ballinger Publishing Company, 1989.
Wohlforth W. C. The Stability of a Unipolar World // International Security. Summer
1999. Vol. 24. No 1. P. 541.
Woodward B. Bush at War. N.Y.: Simon & Schuster, 2002.
Woodward B. Plan of Attack. N.Y.: Simon & Schuster, 2004.
Zakaria F. The Post-American World. N.Y.: Penguin Books, 2008.

251

Zakaria F. From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of Americas World Role.
Princeton (N.J.): Princeton University Press, 1998.
Zoellick R. B. A Republican Foreign Policy // Foreign Affairs. January/February 2000.
P. 6378.
. // . 2006. 1. [ ]. : http://www.globalaffairs.ru/
numbers/18/5294.html.
. : / . .; . . . . .: , 2004.
. ? / . .; .
. . . .: , 2002.
. // . 2009. . 4. [ ]. : http://www.globalaffairs.ru/12357.
html.
. // .
2006. 5. . 141152.
. // . 2007. 6. . 2136.
. : // .
2007. 3. [ ]. : http://www.globalaffairs.ru.

252


-
(19922011)
1992
1
- () . -.
. . . .
11

() () , .
23
() , , ,

(-1)
, , ,
-1.
1
().
1618
. . . 17 . .
. : , ,

,
,
, ,

. ,
,
, , , .

253

3
.
.
1993
3
. ,
(-2), 30003500
1 2003 .
34
() - . . . . ,
- .
. . - . .
23
. . .
1994
1215
. .
- , --
,
-
, ,

, 30 1994 .
2122
. . -
()
. ,
, - , , .
810
. . (),
.
2630
. . .
: -

254

; -2
;

(). .
56
()

(). ().
1995
17 12
- () V (). .
1011
. . -
, , , , , .

- .
8
. . ,
,
.
23
- () - .

,
.
1996
9
. . . . .
28
.
24
5 (, , , ,
) - () .

255

1997
2021
()
. . . .
- :
- ; ; -
; ;
.
27
()
, .
. . , . , 16
.
30
() .

, .
2022
()
.
.
18
-.
26
- () . ,
, , . ,
, ,
.
. . .

(-2) . ,

256

() 1997 .,
-2 ( 31
2007 .)
.
1998
1517
() , , .
13
. .
. . . :
XI .; ;
, ;
; ; ,
; .
11
. .
. . .
1999
12
, , .
23
. . .
24

. . , .
2324
() .
23
. .
31
. . .

257

2000
26
. . .
14


(-2)
26 1972 ., - 26
1997 .:
26 1972 .,

26 1972 .,
, . 19 2000 .
21
. .
17

(21 ).
35
. .
:
,
, ;

;
;
.
28
.
6
- ()
. . . .
-
.
7
,

258

, ,
,
, .
, . , , , I .
3
,
1 2000 . 1995 ., , .
3
. (. -.)
.
19
1333,
, , .
2001
16
() . . . -.
2123
() . . . ,

.
11
- .
7
.
1215
. . .
:
- ; - ; ;
; .
13

1972 .

259

2002
29
. , , .
2426
. ,

. . .
.
28
19
-- (),

(). .
29
,
.
2627
() .
18
. (-2002).
2003
10
, ,
, 1441,
,

.
12
. . . () , ,
.
15
, ,
, ,
. ,

260

,
, .
19
,

.
20
.
14
-
(), .
31 1
.
. . -.
. . . .
16


, .
2327
. . ,

-. : , ,
, , ,
; ,
,
.
2223
- -. 225 .
( ). , , .
25

. .
. , . ,

261



2223
. . . .
. . . .
9
.
,
,
.
2004
9
. . . . .
29
, , , , , , .
8
. . .
- ().
. . . ,
,
.
6
,
() .
3

. ,
.
15
-
, .
20
. . .
().
- :
, - .

262

22 26
. ,
.
2005
24
. . . . ().
, , ;
.
24
.
.
1920
.
. . . . . . ,
, ,
, .
9
.
.
1
. .
.
5
. () , .
1825
- -2005
, .
1415
. .
. . . . ,
, .

263

25

().
2006
18
.
.
16
. (-2006).
4
. () - . ,
,
, , , .
5
.
.
2830
. c

-.
1417
-,
. .
. . ,

,
.
2122
.
.
. . ,
. . . . . .
, , .
4

264


.
29
,

.
3
. .
- ,
, - .
9
, , , .
13

, , .
19
-
. ()
, , ,
,
, .
28

, ,
. .
2007
16
- -1,
.
20
-
, .

265

10
. . ,
(),
. ,
. ,
.
15
. ,
-
,
-
().
19
- . -
. -

. - . ,
,
.
26
. .

.
1415
. .
. . ,
- , ,
,
.
1215
() ,

.
7
() . . , . , .

266

26


, 16 1996 .
18 2017 .
12
.
. . (). . . .
.
,
.
13
: . .
. .
13
. . .
2
- -2007,
, -1
.
89
. . .
. (). .
1213

. . .
2 + 2.
. . . . , , .
2008
17
.

267

2
. . .
56
.
. . . ,
.
5
. . , .

,
-
.
7
()
. . . .
, . . . , , . .
12
. .
.
712
. .

(
).
19

, .
26
. . .
23
,
.
4
.

268

22
()
. . . .
. - .
13
-2008 .
2009
20
. .
5

.
6
. . . , - .
1
.
22
,
.
68
. . . . ,
- . . . : , ,
;
,
, .
-
(
).
23
. . . 64- . ,
, -
, , .

269

1214
. ,
. . . , , .
2010
5
. .
.
1819
. .
,
.
6
.
8
. () (-3).
26
. (-2010).
27
11 , .
22
. . , -300 ,
-300 -1, 2007 .
19
() .
22
-
(-3).
2011
26
-
(-3)

270

5
47- C .
. . -
(-3).
1931
.
23
.
26
.
. . ().
, , - XXI ., .
1113
. . .
, - . . .
.
-
2006 2010 .
16
. .
. , 18 .

271

Tatiana A. Shakleina
Russia and the United States in Contemporary World Politics
The author analyzes American foreign policy strategies after the
end of the cold war, examines the Russian vector of Clinton, Bush
and Obama administrations policy, and describes phenomenon of
two-level bifurcation in Russia-US relations. The book also presents
Russian view of American concepts of contemporary world order and
methods of its construction, of American global activities, and policy
towards Russia. This monograph is the continuation of the previous
monograph by the author Russia and the United States in the New
World Order (2002), and is also written on the basis of ample historiographic analysis. The book is recommended as the text-book for
courses on international relations in the Russian universities.

About the Author


Tatiana A. Shakleina is a well-known Russian specialist in international
relations, Professor of political science, Head of the Department of applied
research of international problems at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia. She
started her career at the Institute of the USA and Canada Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and till 2007 was Head of the Department of foreign policy studies. In 2006 she won Academician E. Tarle Award of the Russian
Academy of Sciences for achievements in international relations studies. She is
the author of numerous books and articles on American and Russian foreign
policy, Russia-US relations.

272