*se usa GEN ESCENARIO NORMAL CORR (0)

Costo de Produccion: Rendimiento: CP/REND = Cost Qtal

477.021177040766 219.292365526029 2.17527489338951
CP M:450 DV:50 [$/ha] 460.033106861074 72.4274222590187 6.35164268605169
Rend M:200 DV 230 [qtal/ha] 424.059699170131 373.546206386807 1.13522689273685
Vol 200 u 340.160384885606 362.985380257231 0.937118692341135
pfv 4 [$/qtal] 494.728222803685 326.632535277616 1.51463240605593
365.415609518001 150.047810482075 2.43532783546784
504.608166286471 385.860224193934 1.30774859559729
433.874894468819 607.977564588979 0.713636357226666
506.662613340374 -165.049527719274 -3.0697610610685
532.028500997788 120.02038299155 4.43281789090147
453.118816599482 367.7546042142 1.23212275633553
369.410823463096 253.790811071721 1.45557209854497
446.073107410726 78.1726262637404 5.70625714819604
465.628550588018 287.272292792787 1.62086133006876
418.415224615851 65.4966519822261 6.38834523525564
497.669079880115 414.600790475044 1.2003572866079
461.269622196725 705.978029706166 0.653376738067486
517.335852380401 27.6822232059153 18.6883780443564
475.520162053769 672.377630618437 0.707221865213447
415.314389414729 219.552185161437 1.89164316041468
387.696588662198 946.552857925187 0.409587890856953
472.851588158962 -294.929403910208 -1.60327041620754
459.479375046057 -94.6884130618166 -4.8525406666821
386.774254138322 392.65789765535 0.985015853362023
421.520848973333 -188.375324145966 -2.23766488994445
423.170127145764 130.953032500345 3.23146489291609
423.919434678962 575.165420685429 0.737039153316578
552.511876125134 142.547980776796 3.87597125623453
420.602057990742 -28.3083269278406 -14.8578917808487
400.853631066386 286.508204279807 1.39910000858093
438.632168499462 149.300315884287 2.93791855631048
478.068959642713 96.4049275502036 4.95896809210042
467.014229525255 12.5700739918144 37.1528624118978
405.365857727896 248.413661322064 1.63181789427573
379.985966339539 175.724517471502 2.16239584439982
515.74547204318 52.9994579762467 9.73114616142541
489.495908220346 129.076200513075 3.79230180524845
422.281823992458 522.205581820142 0.808650536672931
466.82358662801 274.891368786455 1.69821114678451
440.984724621946 -97.4321743253358 -4.52606880299575
457.680338847546 316.979063730982 1.44388191907834
518.2004291813 423.876852538561 1.22252589656133
349.88775685907 225.047866599713 1.55472594406507
518.986135455961 159.586843892912 3.25206090173836
473.098376885392 201.414755789773 2.34887645162994
451.722080662151 178.626358132762 2.52886575858203
431.201910323899 144.60358806781 2.98195858128841
419.318750230617 -166.362535912394 -2.52051189248178
415.300647446234 668.065415338259 0.621646679967644
372.643622112323 135.931317299143 2.7414111002268
432.743114179932 194.173451318341 2.22864202722783
399.377835224933 185.265013045121 2.15571104689726
417.410395714843 275.566376416293 1.51473630833781
455.282529769428 -32.2476130746698 -14.1183326876075
527.133747008265 291.424254326364 1.80881906424278
450.762967389558 136.039193610189 3.31347867792563
387.969607084039 380.724268594597 1.01903040884729
444.933065362667 357.812573216708 1.24348080159049
462.162553754816 421.952369437039 1.0952955528403
345.995191668878 14.8171506632168 23.3509936919115
377.651738320107 -87.7483861778996 -4.30380266543548
428.238042517916 -60.9816969267758 -7.02240285363206
275.483930958912 221.242843938446 1.24516538503527
470.221939635789 225.4268343081 2.08591821412493
497.199345337005 -120.262774949366 -4.13427467931236
406.458315912863 306.872335402742 1.32451925123659
444.24814244387 115.72171734197 3.83893492637227
398.174273352299 323.529697716363 1.2307193934987
523.340446365436 217.43494221683 2.40688290957187
382.851669275654 360.773906566123 1.06119556405747
437.570898834706 177.986072496991 2.45845583699873
449.018043598482 12.6232338351163 35.5707617765402
427.967877739348 -100.850296381248 -4.24359563725511
461.350568512963 -19.5730331254062 -23.5707243510521
522.913356479439 -97.490702646949 -5.36372538387694
442.940825950297 61.0973061625871 7.24976032120924
506.925654423401 355.630762684255 1.42542689669811
419.803089848867 303.501217697676 1.38320067719478
417.311334257815 -108.520226750619 -3.84547053349604
356.649865334263 94.1740804503101 3.78713403548915
490.343426920133 77.5702715141217 6.3212802707654
413.921954908775 188.738694320041 2.19309536075785
416.996101226489 105.514101624281 3.95204143149839
365.19520264349 189.866076096806 1.92343577194533
408.98406005366 453.21184900348 0.902412549347359
461.200930675729 358.703962415044 1.28574250356925
523.010235215528 99.4654043788838 5.25821252606862
455.392310023874 -122.100372831115 -3.72965536029737
467.172754092423 147.686358489101 3.16327627596627
537.780690602422 -76.5294160382579 -7.02711086066016
521.431662941771 270.387188058051 1.92846290790162
430.426699577254 -39.1249734894636 -11.0013288492877
447.489593113024 21.9362125986336 20.3995831596242
574.832362815176 -58.6133447671436 -9.80719262991805
355.128634297816 108.507761214502 3.27284085786073
455.988650258426 527.802777196899 0.863937572818639
454.800833511686 145.545088177171 3.12481059448781
501.234554213531 416.051447136136 1.20474176370193
472.331321397585 335.350520544947 1.40847051804196
586.180656608417 105.011741024469 5.58204873940555
449.39981145113 149.419032670074 3.00764771007073
475.543906729414 -11.3334863586786 -41.9591899332253
440.278328767787 224.941400086168 1.95730234007226
494.760755710047 223.629182814354 2.21241588187877
440.86711813952 205.228450252564 2.14817739741721
412.69137248197 269.769996708611 1.52978973761761
448.725295888099 308.09800470033 1.45643687736488
510.432173835053 123.987587896374 4.1168005805683
424.138465560148 74.6433566247939 5.68219979297212
398.245039602451 217.208670426302 1.83346750763144
411.938821900063 249.103687792912 1.65368415678583
432.538549318701 465.672319503024 0.928847456040153
447.243088683676 -1.37983462802742 -324.128036504667
473.954444312868 353.267329751408 1.34163112294133
464.47948604584 379.270410753007 1.22466576056819
400.634164461806 400.041077449948 1.00148256527964
408.38473163665 594.287132132015 0.687184207020542
374.628810660278 -154.687547821677 -2.42184206767664
490.878316883071 129.500593375642 3.79054878504828
445.429575230414 -70.7719261975179 -6.29387384465503
390.102980305297 -16.0524087018113 -24.3018345440755
366.831346089277 330.527434843374 1.10983630228185
454.143474641508 235.311582021967 1.92996651817637
410.836368360486 181.534660076885 2.26312908062011
483.153128429375 356.809333349384 1.35409330213982
437.194412953338 498.864906816887 0.876378368129658
483.0988323763 -110.426137486112 -4.37485946148445
467.19923915505 329.318042766537 1.41868703952629
342.37932320314 160.103862551179 2.13848259340836
437.589065801584 62.7188024939134 6.97699969389643
559.003568558888 395.70686948541 1.41267087247142
475.660927093151 152.150996572488 3.12624259984084
481.322210333859 64.0069590022876 7.51984187089182
431.620069737618 161.456765448347 2.67328574642914
529.896636268064 -68.4729101004449 -7.73877779534626
468.720632112921 110.028963759412 4.25997497475139
387.165314915812 -5.84228253922825 -66.2695294717731
378.959052639378 161.048826603999 2.3530693183577
537.114357459905 224.275897194236 2.3948822150725
449.295202902888 643.04949286742 0.69869459176375
411.017735057427 129.129821329114 3.18298074625119
436.79407191604 66.9723560823107 6.52200545818053
450.422519671603 -49.7874674821993 -9.04690562605225
452.163373969061 617.828951497977 0.731858506909968
457.231819522339 507.250113313073 0.90139323288852
470.249344258853 165.926939049252 2.83407472561925
475.217821470323 -149.169283267083 -3.18576191466617
484.68943070357 320.952472451431 1.51015951677056
449.632896999372 -33.0809290098392 -13.5919065896136
412.018440975699 96.3652204293905 4.27559278274672
489.372134624793 -177.731475608778 -2.75343538868713
452.258728875334 360.259235036441 1.25537025811312
492.200814554891 95.7659671382804 5.13962140479595
546.125369167379 397.101352411648 1.37527954979425
472.663951639844 501.609253620747 0.942295119613587
507.707262644533 151.590695200925 3.3491980623982
392.014344803385 587.913444612855 0.666789215989999
491.600313786224 318.161450150929 1.54512846717608
437.540200789279 -291.517340032606 -1.50090626080884
401.847818840111 -24.7568481483245 -16.2317842898474
451.218345335314 145.332457660084 3.1047320921983
387.632271710891 63.2886748866987 6.12482837418925
468.330737295208 437.493635365665 1.0704858298196
449.745477137612 -3.80870845362381 -118.083461260917
513.125306128701 125.385987268361 4.09236564075113
427.110938883163 370.56620785043 1.15259009006983
411.051781601253 169.349822723574 2.42723479121796
414.043072292126 468.398353321587 0.883955012557139
464.022362357761 126.368469926338 3.67197895668315
435.969121562003 449.083240338236 0.970798022285677
460.855400899902 542.126472960779 0.850088353706429
452.155418117102 99.0109796126687 4.56671997273369
505.955567650309 51.3640964887326 9.85037413753198
417.7619952365 -11.6817426170836 -35.7619585476536
430.322567169734 -445.450198056162 -0.966039680861202
482.529135821128 429.565376348998 1.1232961555754
420.648149818852 322.581319675702 1.30400653776771
437.961231402156 403.25138319223 1.0860749637984
482.442247240231 163.914215681972 2.94326056610167
379.060655492806 148.038302742674 2.5605579668912
429.291553596555 327.651057440939 1.31020957768139
425.531248515044 392.567136605346 1.08397063543003
398.553487680489 254.106660166028 1.56844959286027
535.429694238889 39.8711027564839 13.4290164360156
527.726572239991 -76.874773064628 -6.8647561638502
557.539015101099 278.141412194364 2.00451637425171
 462.519405675981 498.156648278379 0.928461774573199
459.438687135741 41.3562002042254 11.109306098407
504.052471543935 -131.172950739949 -3.84265558333914
442.302728579196 362.434060065406 1.22036744697608
415.592448978114 128.897004052422 3.22422116815915
436.975583676144 215.33143630764 2.02931625390659
419.413653115378 247.127899496394 1.69715217897321
409.626690862596 -125.176239254939 -3.27239972458619
512.801165595019 -80.3568946008281 -6.38154533151576
469.587254037903 495.194964130568 0.948287620134373
413.320060399253 578.105783696303 0.714955760789245
501.010890318301 165.986139474481 3.01838992041457
448.998063992749 369.561431083375 1.21494838537805
498.684203672946 131.289857801362 3.79834521892348

max 586.180656608417 946.552857925187 37.1528624118978

Min 275.483930958912 -445.450198056162 -324.128036504667

Prom 448.948414947879 193.403485584021 -1.51037318922183

Mediana 449.156623250685 167.667981099028 1.4220569681122
Rend*Pf utilidad Prob utilidad sobre caso base Perdidas esperadas
877.169462 1.82472511 171 86% 1 -0.26345879
289.709689 -2.35164269 Prob perdidas por sobre caso base 2 2.34474911
1494.18483 2.86477311 29 15% 3 2.44380321
1451.94152 3.06288131 4 2.15504635
1306.53014 2.48536759 5 1.69469864
600.191242 1.56467216 6 2.25848826
1543.4409 2.6922514 7 2.55554437
2431.91026 3.28636364 8 4.44724308
-660.198111 7.06976106 9 0.69595361
480.081532 -0.43281789 10 2.29630118
1471.01842 2.76787724 11 2.1845765
1015.16324 2.5444279 12 0.05923398
312.690505 -1.70625715 13 2.10193189
1149.08917 2.37913867 14 -0.28181006
261.986608 -2.38834524 15 2.31218391
1658.40316 2.79964271 16 2.58567418
2823.91212 3.34662326 17 -6.43182647
110.728893 -14.688378 18 2.55875162
2689.51052 3.29277813 19 1.96654097
878.208741 2.10835684 20 2.70756861
3786.21143 3.59041211 21 3.71399776
-1179.71762 5.60327042 22 5.33863289
-378.753652 8.85254067 23 2.41985463
1570.63159 3.01498415 24 4.031195
-753.501297 6.23766489 25 1.29663011
523.81213 0.76853511 26 2.54384298
2300.66168 3.26296085 27 0.97437693
570.191923 0.12402874 28 10.3413084
-113.233308 18.8578918 29 2.21281255
1146.03282 2.60089999 30 1.44340328
597.201264 1.06208144 31 0.43287851
385.61971 -0.95896809 32 -15.6640687
50.280296 -33.1528624 33 2.09645361
993.654645 2.36818211 34 1.83116463
702.89807 1.83760416 35 -1.95321053
211.997832 -5.73114616 36 1.01621165
516.304802 0.20769819 37 2.50803728
2088.82233 3.19134946 38 2.06325698
1099.56548 2.30178885 39 5.17539695
-389.728697 8.5260688 40 2.19042159
1267.91625 2.55611808 41 2.30109961
1695.50741 2.7774741 42 2.13499958
900.191466 2.44527406 43 1.2863321
638.347376 0.7479391 44 1.73792433
805.659023 1.65112355 45 1.64792967
 714.505433 1.47113424 46 1.42138326
578.414352 1.01804142 47 4.1726185
-665.450144 6.52051189 48 2.60153921
2672.26166 3.37835332 49 1.541657
543.725269 1.2585889 50 1.79804154
776.693805 1.77135797 51 1.83450703
741.060052 1.84428895 52 2.1549944
1102.26551 2.48526369 53 9.9715289
-128.990452 18.1183327 54 2.00795302
1165.69702 2.19118094 55 1.25562321
544.156774 0.68652132 56 2.40284735
1522.89707 2.98096959 57 2.29062215
1431.25029 2.7565192 58 2.36471478
1687.80948 2.90470445 59 -8.76313429
59.2686027 -19.3509937 60 5.06426389
-350.993545 8.30380267 61 6.42356398
-243.926788 11.0224029 62 2.28977986
884.971376 2.75483461 63 1.86940345
901.707337 1.91408179 64 4.97949989
-481.0511 8.13427468 65 2.25010293
1227.48934 2.67548075 66 0.99289509
462.886869 0.16106507 67 2.29700286
1294.11879 2.76928061 68 1.7089211
869.739769 1.59311709 69 2.38176477
1443.09563 2.93880444 70 1.68313463
711.94429 1.54154416 71 -14.8730183
50.4929353 -31.5707618 72 5.03416037
-403.401186 8.24359564 73 14.6977247
-78.2921325 27.5707244 74 5.59422525
-389.962811 9.36372538 75 -0.71251761
244.389225 -3.24976032 76 2.1996491
1422.52305 2.5745731 77 2.22076221
1214.00487 2.61679932 78 4.83509782
-434.080907 7.84547053 79 1.01879554
376.696322 0.21286596 80 -0.24827758
310.281086 -2.32128027 81 1.81581487
754.954777 1.80690464 82 0.93634184
422.056406 0.04795857 83 1.95064467
759.464304 2.07656423 84 2.46115628
1812.8474 3.09758745 85 2.2694913
1434.81585 2.7142575 86 0.28325629
397.861618 -1.25821253 87 4.77719023
-488.401491 7.72965536 88 1.33072442
590.745434 0.83672372 89 6.42591798
-306.117664 11.0271109 90 1.9481311
1081.54875 2.07153709 91 8.41302698
-156.499894 15.0013288 92 -7.28742903
 87.7448504 -16.3995832 93 7.81595887
-234.453379 13.8071926 94 1.27594212
434.031045 0.72715914 95 2.48039377
2111.21111 3.13606243 96 1.34995726
582.180353 0.87518941 97 2.30999167
1664.20579 2.79525824 98 2.20812729
1341.40208 2.59152948 99 0.12133818
420.046964 -1.58204874 100 1.4085387
597.676131 0.99235229 101 23.8919575
-45.3339454 45.9591899 102 1.93371138
899.7656 2.04269766 103 1.80615461
894.516731 1.78758412 104 1.83827385
820.913801 1.8518226 105 2.14746768
1079.07999 2.47021026 106 2.18414411
1232.39202 2.54356312 107 0.85396226
495.950352 -0.11680058 108 0.07126266
298.573426 -1.68219979 109 1.9956288
868.834682 2.16653249 110 2.08552047
996.414751 2.34631584 111 2.44793883
1862.68928 3.07115254 112 164.976381
-5.51933851 328.128037 113 2.24154699
1413.06932 2.65836888 114 2.30002967
1517.08164 2.77533424 115 2.41162127
1600.16431 2.99851743 116 2.56877045
2377.14853 3.31281579 117 4.12328359
-618.750191 6.42184207 118 1.01708816
518.002374 0.20945121 119 6.05929948
-283.087705 10.2938738 120 15.0632798
-64.2096348 28.3018345 121 2.3574444
1322.10974 2.8901637 122 1.94737929
941.246328 2.07003348 123 1.78079801
726.13864 1.73687092 124 2.2353159
1427.23733 2.6459067 125 2.47417337
1995.45963 3.12362163 126 5.09979228
-441.70455 8.37485946 127 2.20301903
1317.27217 2.58131296 128 1.84312126
640.41545 1.86151741 129 -0.57613729
250.87521 -2.97699969 130 2.20602712
1582.82748 2.58732913 131 1.34924125
608.603986 0.8737574 132 -0.84755838
256.027836 -3.51984187 133 1.57571968
645.827062 1.32671425 134 6.78175145
-273.89164 11.7387778 135 0.78237507
440.115855 -0.25997497 136 36.0471273
-23.3691302 70.2695295 137 1.73582789
644.195306 1.64693068 138 1.71492145
897.103589 1.60511778 139 2.56301526
 2572.19797 3.30130541 140 1.32087218
516.519285 0.81701925 141 -0.34864018
267.889424 -2.52200546 142 7.43581537
-199.14987 13.0469056 143 2.5464333
2471.31581 3.26814149 144 2.46166594
2029.00045 3.09860677 145 1.49532519
663.707756 1.16592527 146 4.50524351
-596.677133 7.18576191 147 2.15728279
1283.80989 2.48984048 148 9.70831585
-132.323716 17.5919066 149 0.77456616
385.460882 -0.27559278 150 4.28908025
-710.925902 6.75343539 151 2.28467742
1441.03694 2.74462974 152 0.34255185
383.063869 -1.1396214 153 2.22472278
1588.40541 2.62472045 154 2.44121499
2006.43701 3.05770488 155 1.23776352
606.362781 0.65080194 156 2.57896795
2351.65378 3.33321078 157 2.13979832
1272.6458 2.45487153 158 3.66281568
-1166.06936 5.50090626 159 11.0282547
-99.0273926 20.2317843 160 1.35999651
581.329831 0.89526791 161 -0.15005163
253.1547 -2.12482837 162 2.37711964
1749.97454 2.92951417 163 61.9540932
-15.2348338 122.083461 164 0.86617973
501.543949 -0.09236564 165 2.33606751
1482.26483 2.84740991 166 1.69874516
677.399291 1.57276521 167 2.47038505
1873.59341 3.11604499 168 1.07637307
505.47388 0.32802104 169 2.42696354
1796.33296 3.02920198 170 2.48731838
2168.50589 3.14991165 171 0.62900257
396.043918 -0.56671997 172 -2.01282452
205.456386 -5.85037414 173 20.7933418
-46.7269705 39.7619585 174 3.39538239
-1781.80079 4.96603968 175 2.35071448
1718.26151 2.87670384 176 2.26035928
1290.32528 2.69599346 177 2.36932507
1613.00553 2.91392504 178 1.44073227
655.656863 1.05673943 179 1.63208357
592.153211 1.43944203 180 2.25725776
1310.60423 2.68979042 181 2.37037724
1570.26855 2.91602936 182 2.12813776
1016.42664 2.43155041 183 -3.80214566
159.484411 -9.42901644 184 6.34474064
-307.499092 10.8647562 185 1.91010437
1112.56565 1.99548363 186 2.44813167
 1992.62659 3.07153823 187 -2.6422905
165.424801 -7.1093061 188 4.83369034
-524.691803 7.84265558 189 2.30217883
1449.73624 2.77963255 190 1.30025197
515.588016 0.77577883 191 1.89770443
861.325745 1.97068375 192 2.06378646
988.511598 2.30284782 193 4.54856242
-500.704957 7.27239972 194 6.10313522
-321.427578 10.3815453 195 2.43821874
1980.77986 3.05171238 196 2.55488467
2312.42313 3.28504424 197 1.40316759
663.944558 0.98161008 198 2.30488836
1478.24572 2.78505161 199 1.01318994
525.159431 0.20165478 200 1.82472511

3786.21143 328.128037
-1781.80079 -33.1528624

773.613942 5.51037319
670.671924 2.57794303
 Respuestas
La probabilidad que las utilidades superen el caso base es de un 86%, entendiendo que se
toma la produccion y se divide por rendimiento para saber cuando es lo que se puede
vender, es decir se entiende que hay x cantidad de unidades.
La probabilidad de tener perdidas es de un 15%, lo mismo que en la probabilidad anterior

Variacion utilidades
350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
0 50 100 150 200 250
-50

-100

Este gráfico no está disponible en su versión de Excel.

Si edita esta forma o guarda el libro en un formato de archivo diferente, el

gráfico no se podrá utilizar.
 Perdida esperada

200

150

100

50

0
1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100 109 118 127 136 145154 163 172 181 190 199

-50