Actual Period Trend Seasonal Factor

300 1 420.4955 0.7134440202095 0.847447944250634

400 2 417.541 0.9579897542996 0.940574931616235
425 3 414.5865 1.0251177980952 1.07745105116708
450 4 411.632 1.0932094686516 1.11149688644528
400 5 408.6775 0.978766876082 1.02525537536542
460 6 405.723 1.1337784646175 1.03951859096421
400 7 402.7685 0.9931263244271 0.851605416511627
300 8 399.814 0.7503489122442 0.849833422528315
375 9 396.8595 0.9449187936789 1.1188914293142
500 10 393.905 1.269341592516 0.847447944
550 11 390.9505 1.4068277185986 0.940574932
500 12 387.996 1.2886730791039 1.077451051
275 13 385.0415 0.7142087281501 1.111496886
375 14 382.087 0.9814518682918 1.025255375
350 15 379.1325 0.9231601089329 1.039518591
425 16 376.178 1.129784304239 0.851605417
400 17 373.2235 1.0717438746488 0.849833423
350 18 370.269 0.9452587173109 1.118891429
350 19 367.3145 0.9528619207791 0.847447944
275 20 364.36 0.7547480513778 0.940574932
350 21 361.4055 0.9684412661124 1.077451051
398.4172 22 358.451 1.1114968860458 1.111496886
364.4747 23 355.4965 1.0252553749474 1.025255375
366.474 24 352.542 1.0395185909764 1.039518591
297.7106 25 349.5875 0.8516054169557 0.851605417
294.5803 26 346.633 0.8498334229574 0.849833423
384.5389 27 343.6785 1.1188914290536 1.118891429
288.7459 28 340.724 0.8474479440838 0.847447944
317.6975 29 337.7695 0.9405749320172 0.940574932
360.7468 30 334.815 1.0774510508788 1.077451051
Forecasting Selisih
356.348047041642 56.3480470416424
392.728597521975 7.27140247802549
446.696660224681 21.6966602246809
457.527686361244 7.52768636124392
418.9988036659 18.9988036659
421.756601281771 38.2433987182292
342.999836200263 57.0001637997369
339.775299994736 39.7752999947356
444.042693191919 69.0426931919195
333.81398238132 166.18601761868
367.718239952866 182.281760047134
418.046697983796 81.953302016204
427.972428230769 152.972428230769
391.736750467625 16.736750467625
394.115282202307 44.1152822023075
320.355222556226 104.644777443774
317.177804549041 82.8221954509595
414.290810524401 64.290810524401
311.279917826388 38.720082173612
342.70788222352 67.70788222352
389.39673581218 39.3967358121805
398.417170283586 1.64139351E-08
364.474697418687 1.86874444807E-08
366.473963108322 8.32199020806E-09
297.710608715487 1.5487444216E-08
Ini Merupakan Hasil Forecasting
294.580308914759 1.47589958033E-08 dengan MAD sekitar 48,49
384.538927981577 1.8423520487E-08
288.745853271456 2.85440364678E-08
317.697524494174 5.82599568588E-09
360.746773640565 4.05649984714E-08
MAD 48.49043
SD 38.79235

Grafik Plotting Trend

600

500

400
f(x) = − 2.46206188300395 x + 419.670475974308
Axis Title

R² = 0.0550810639645766 Column A
300
Linear (Column A)
200

100

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Axis Title
Plan 1 : No Overtime, 20 workers

Januari Februari Maret April

Demand 2500 3000 4000 3500

Inventory awal 500 1500 2000 1500

Safety stock 500 500 500 500

Lama Pembuatan Produk (jam) 2500 3000 4000 3500

Lama Kerja Per bulan (day) 25 25 25 25

Lama Kerja biasa Per bulan (jam) 200 200 200 200

Jumlah pekerja at least (kalau 12.5 10 12.5 12.5

per bulan tanpa overtime

Jumlah Pekerja tetap 20 20 20 20

Jumlah Produk Per Bulan Per 4000 4000 4000 4000

Unit

Inventory Akhir 1500 2000 1500 1500

Shortage produk 0 0 0 0
Overtime hour 0 0 0 0
Harga Material 100000 100000 100000 100000
Regular Cost 456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000
Overtime cost 0 0 0 0
shortage cost 0 0 0 0
Inventory Cost 75000000 100000000 75000000 75000000
harga total produksi per bulan 531000000 556000000 531000000 531000000
Production cost per year 6227000000
Plan 2 : 22 workers, No
Overtime
Januari Februari Maret April
Demand 2500 3000 4000 3500
Inventory awal 500 1900 2800 2700
Safety stock yang harus ada 500 500 500 500
Lama Pembuatan Produk (jam) 2500 3000 4000 3500
Lama Kerja Per bulan (day) 25 25 25 25
Lama Kerja biasa Per bulan (jam) 200 200 200 200

Jumlah pekerja at least (kalau

per bulan tanpa overtime 12.5 8 8.5 6.5
Jumlah Pekerja tetap 22 22 22 22
Jumlah Produk Per Bulan Per
Unit 4400 4400 4400 4400
Inventory Akhir 1900 2800 2700 3100
Shortage produk 0 0 0 0
Overtime hour 0 0 0 0
Harga Material 100000 100000 100000 100000
Regular Cost 456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000
Overtime cost 0 0 0 0
shortage cost 0 0 0 0
Inventory Cost 95000000 140000000 135000000 155000000
harga total produksi per bulan 551000000 596000000 591000000 611000000
Production cost per year 8057000000

Plan 3 : All of 15 workers are

doing Overtime work.

Januari Februari Maret April

Demand 2500 3000 4000 3500
Inventory awal 500 2000 3000 1500
Safety stock 500 500 500 500
Lama Pembuatan Produk (jam) 2500 3000 4000 3500
Lama Kerja Per bulan (day) 25 25 25 25
Lama Kerja biasa Per bulan (jam) 200 200 200 200
Lama kerja overtime Per bulan
untuk tiap pekerja (jam) 1100 1100 1100 1100

Jumlah pekerja at least (kalau

per bulan tanpa overtime 12.5 7.5 7.5 12.5
Jumlah Pekerja tetap 15 15 15 15
Jumlah Produk Per Bulan Per
Unit 4500 4500 3000 4500
Inventory Akhir 2000 3000 1500 0
Shortage produk 0 0 1500 2000
Harga Material 100000 100000 100000 100000
Regular Cost 264000000 264000000 264000000 264000000
Overtime cost 143000000 143000000 143000000 143000000
shortage cost 0 0 150000000 200000000
Inventory Cost 100000000 150000000 75000000 0
harga total produksi per bulan 507000000 557000000 632000000 607000000
Production cost per year 6009000000

Plain 4 : 20 Workers, need

overtime

Januari Februari Maret April

Demand 2500 3000 4000 3500
Inventory awal 500 1500 2000 1500
Safety stock 500 500 500 500
Lama Pembuatan Produk (jam) 2500 3000 4000 3500
Lama Kerja Per bulan (day) 25 25 25 25
Lama Kerja biasa Per bulan (jam) 200 200 200 200

Jumlah pekerja at least (kalau

per bulan tanpa overtime 12.5 10 12.5 12.5
Jumlah Pekerja tetap 20 20 20 20
Jumlah Produk Per Bulan Per
Unit 4000 4000 4000 4000
Inventory Akhir 1500 2000 1500 1500
Shortage produk 0 0 0 0
Overtime hour 0 0 0 0
Harga Material 100000 100000 100000 100000
Regular Cost 456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000
Overtime cost 0 0 0 0
shortage cost 0 0 0 0
Inventory Cost 75000000 100000000 75000000 75000000
harga total produksi per bulan 531000000 556000000 531000000 531000000
Production cost per year 6303000000
Mei Juni Juli Agustus September Oktober November

3500 3000 3000 4000 4000 4000 3000

1500 1500 800 1300 800 0 0

500 500 500 500 500 500 500

3500 3000 3000 4000 4000 4000 3000

25 25 25 25 25 25 25

200 200 200 200 200 200 200

12.5 10 13.5 16 18.5 22.5 17.5

20 20 20 20 20 20 20

4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000

1500 2000 1300 800 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 500 500
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000
456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 50000000 50000000
75000000 100000000 65000000 40000000 0 0 0
531000000 556000000 521000000 496000000 456000000 506000000 506000000
Mei Juni Juli Agustus September Oktober November
3500 3000 3000 4000 4000 4000 3000
3100 3500 4400 5300 5200 5100 5000
500 500 500 500 500 500 500
3500 3000 3000 4000 4000 4000 3000
25 25 25 25 25 25 25
200 200 200 200 200 200 200

4.5 0 -4.5 -4 -3.5 -3 -7.5

22 22 22 22 22 22 22
4400 4400 4400 4400 4400 4400 4400
3500 4400 5300 5200 5100 5000 5900
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000
456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
175000000 220000000 265000000 260000000 255000000 250000000 295000000
631000000 676000000 721000000 716000000 711000000 706000000 751000000

Mei Juni Juli Agustus September Oktober November

3500 3000 3000 4000 4000 4000 3000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
500 500 500 500 500 500 500
3500 3000 3000 4000 4000 4000 3000
25 25 25 25 25 25 25
200 200 200 200 200 200 200
 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100

20 17.5 17.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 17.5

15 15 15 15 15 15 15
4500 4500 4500 4500 4500 4500 4500
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
500 1000 1000 0 0 0 1000
100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000
264000000 264000000 264000000 264000000 264000000 264000000 264000000
143000000 143000000 143000000 143000000 143000000 143000000 143000000
50000000 100000000 100000000 0 0 0 100000000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
457000000 507000000 507000000 407000000 407000000 407000000 507000000

Mei Juni Juli Agustus September Oktober November

3500 3000 3000 4000 4000 4000 3000
1500 1500 800 1300 800 0 0
500 500 500 500 500 500 500
3500 3000 3000 4000 4000 4000 3000
25 25 25 25 25 25 25
200 200 200 200 200 200 200

12.5 10 13.5 16 18.5 22.5 17.5

20 20 20 20 20 20 20
4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
1500 2000 1300 800 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 500 500
0 0 0 0 0 950 475
100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000
456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000 456000000
0 0 0 0 0 38000000 19000000
0 0 0 0 0 50000000 50000000
75000000 100000000 65000000 40000000 0 0 0
531000000 556000000 521000000 496000000 456000000 544000000 525000000
 Asumption of Workers per
month 20 Workers

Desember

3000

500

3000

25

200

Jumlah pekerja
17.5 minimum tiap 10 workers - 23 workers Asu
bulannya
1. Jumlah pekerja 19
20 Plain (terdapat inventory cost,
shortage cost, tidak ada
overtime)

4000 2. Jumlah pekerja 20

3. Jumlah pekerja 11
0 (terdapat overtime cost dan
inventory)
500
0
100000
456000000
0
50000000
0
506000000
Desember
3000
5900
500
3000
25
200

-12
22
4400
6800
0
0
100000
456000000
0
0
340000000
796000000

Desember
3000
0
500
3000
25
200
 1100

17.5
15
4500
0
1000
100000
264000000
143000000
100000000
0
507000000

Desember
3000
0
500
3000
25
200

17.5
20
4000
0
500
475
100000
456000000
19000000
50000000
0
525000000
Diketahui

Konsumen per minggu 150 motor

Std 10 motor
d ( Konsumen/7) 21.42857

Asumsi
1. Menggunakan Fix Order Quantity
2. Toko buka Senin-Minggu
3. Holding cost 9% /tahun
4. Ordering Cost 20000 /order
5. Cost/Unit 60000
6. Holding Cost 6000
7. Lead time 4
Jawab:
Pingin 95% konsumen beli oli, sehingga z = 1.645
Sehingga, Std lead time 20

Untuk mencari Q Optimum 219.089 Unit

Re-Order point 85.71429 Unit
Reorder Point Safety Stock 118.6143 Unit