2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

37500 33450 33150 33150 30510

37750 33750 34350 33750 31550 113500 101650 102650 101250
38250 34450 35150 34350 28150 115780 103950 104010 102770
37500 33250 33050 32150 30650 81750 111700 108010 110160
38780 34350 34450 34050 33150 104400 99380 96250 103050
39500 36350 36510 36570 34150 total 415430 416680 410920 417230
40000 39450 38350 38500 33010
4050 36450 36510 36510 32150
37700 35800 33150 35150 31660
36100 34530 33000 34150 31150
35150 33200 32150 35750 29150
33150 31650 31100 33150 28430
415430 416680 410920 417230 373710

Demand
Tahun Time X XY X2
Y
2010 415430 0 0 0
2011 416680 1 416680 1
2012 410920 2 821840 4
2013 417230 3 1251690 9
2014 373710 4 1494840 16
Total 2033970 10 3985050 30

Year Demand X Forecast

2010 415430 0 423372
2011 416680 1 431661
2012 410920 2 439950
2013 417230 3 448239
2014 373710 4 456528
2015 5 464817
2016 6 473106
2017 7 481395
2018 8 489684
2019 9 497973

Demand
Tahun Time X XY X2 Forecast Error Sq Error
Y
Y X Y' Y-Y' (Y-Y')^2
 2010 415430 0 0 0 423372 -7942 63075364
2011 416680 1 416680 1 415083 1597 2550409
2012 410920 2 821840 4 406794 4126 17023876
2013 417230 3 1251690 9 398505 18725 350625625
2014 373710 4 1494840 16 390216 -16506 272448036
Total 2033970 10 3985050 30 0 63075364
 90210
97950
96820
88730
373710
 Triwulan
Tahun Total
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 113500 101650 102650 101250 415430
2011 115780 103950 104010 102770 416680
2012 81750 111700 108010 110160 410920
2013 104400 99380 96250 103050 417230
2014 113500 101650 102650 101250 373710

Tahun Triwulan Actual DemanMoving Average Centered Moving AvSpesific Seasonal Index
2010 Q1 113500
Q2 101650
Q3 102650 104762.5 105047.5 1.013827160494
Q4 101250 105332.5 105620 0.874503368457
2011 Q1 115780 105907.5 106077.5 1.113804713805
Q2 103950 106247.5 106437.5 0.999423132391
Q3 104010 106627.5 102373.75 1.012065777951
Q4 102770 98120 99088.75 1.257125382263
2012 Q1 81750 100057.5 100557.5 0.731871083259
Q2 111700 101057.5 101981.25 1.034163503379
Q3 108010 102905 105736.25 0.980482933914
Q4 110160 108567.5 107027.5 1.055172413793
2013 Q1 104400 105487.5 104017.5 1.050513181727
Q2 99380 102547.5 101658.75 1.032519480519
Q3 96250 100770 101907.5 0.934012615235
Q4 103050 103045 103328.75 0.907929515419
2014 Q1 113500 103612.5 104412.5 1.116576487949
Q2 101650 105212.5 104987.5 0.990258158792
Q3 102650 104762.5
Q4 101250

Tahun Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 1.013827160494 0.874503368457419
2011 1.113805 0.999423132 1.012065777951 1.257125382263
2012 0.731871 1.034163503 0.980482933914 1.0551724137931
2013 1.050513 1.032519481 0.934012615235 0.907929515418502
2014 1.116576 0.990258159
total 4.012765 4.056364275 3.940388487594 4.09473067993202
average 1.003191 1.014091069 0.985097121899 1.02368266998301 4.026062227337
adjusted a 1.1031914 1.11409106877 1.08509712189856 1.12368266998301 4.426062227337