Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
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B) MAD
MAPE
VALOR ABSOLUTO VALOR ABSOLUTO/Dt MT (N=5)
1527.775 0.0477098700276684
16017.025 0.351697883272584 30799.98
48881.1 0.587513927300393 32728.38
23658.4 0.32887071281918 44095.02
24570 0.296934217650244 53011.58
24466.95 0.256673072928578 63089.6
41827.2 0.334272630645174 75749.84
17566.225 0.157756422748749 91667.24
73297.575 2.41591242439724 97297.32
29091.65 0.24318591424024 88977.56
54908.2 0.362383241255098 96353.88
22658.725 0.180019885928024 107593.14
4859.47499999999 0.0476516756864886 107740.92
9842.47500000001 0.0856567542164901 105866.68
527.475000000006 0.00428699609153724 122779.98
13323.325 0.129195753507148 123462.68
42083.625 0.612757374514226 113783.76
9665.97499999999 0.0862235144781126 102346
16811.15 0.197950568730424 104370.92
10468.975 0.128077306565369 98374.92
486053.3 6.85473014700297 1660089.4
24302.665 MAD
34% MAPE
C)
VALOR ABSOLUTO VALOR ABS7Dt Ct Movil pond (N=3)
0.25
0.35
0.4
1 29145.545
29108.3
14742.02 0.324 30972.18
50471.52 0.607 37513.445
27843.28 0.387 57225.21
29734.02 0.359 69280.785
32233.8 0.338 79076.62
49379.16 0.395 85074.895
19683.06 0.177 104101.19
66957.82 2.207 112166.12
30649.64 0.256 82390.655
55165.82 0.364 86307.28
18274.76 0.145 110062.275
5761.81999999999 0.057 133285.855
9039.31999999999 0.079 122725.33
260.719999999987 0.002 113122.06
20337.58 0.197 114928.155
45104.66 0.657 113040.785
9757.7 0.087 94325.6
19444.92 0.229 94660.44
16635.42 0.204 90376.47
521477.04 7.06946405654411 1788889.195
27446.16 D) MAD
37.21% MAPE
E)
VALOR ABSOLUTO VALOR ABSOLUTO/Dt α 0.7 0.2
3209.955 0.0992089443834896
2913.9 0.0909962463540919
14569.82 0.319920512933117
45686.455 0.549116705669117
14713.09 0.204523737703004
13464.815 0.162725450054142
16246.78 0.170438528210282
40054.105 0.320102494225959
7249.11 0.0651018452577137
81826.62 2.69703258128842
37236.545 0.311271558642182
65212.42 0.430389051720667
15805.625 0.125573120708298
31306.755 0.306991873825127
7819.33000000002 0.0680497972255584
9918.64 0.0806126753180045
11803.055 0.114453755681207
44361.685 0.645926999625796
17778.1 0.158586201882721
9734.44 0.114622612627464
8636.97 0.105664580771842
499548.215 7.1413092741082
23788.0102380952 F)
34%
G)
Ft (=0,7) VALOR ABSOLUTO VALOR ABSOLUTO/Dt Ft(=0,2)
35900 0 0 35900
35900 9533.3 0.36156591458165 35900
29226.69 1871.19 0.0684026978121402 33993.34
27916.857 4438.643 0.137183570026734 32665.772
31023.9071 998.2929 0.0311750254510933 32603.7176
31722.7121 13819.28787 0.303440513591849 32487.4141
41396.2136 41803.686361 0.50244875728216 35098.3313
70658.7941 1279.50590830001 0.0177861571416062 44718.645
71554.4482 11191.15177249 0.135247696221793 50162.576
79388.2545 15935.145531747 0.167169294546218 56679.1808
90542.8563 34586.1436595241 0.276403900450928 64408.0246
114753.157 3402.85690214275 0.030559925767086 76552.2197
112371.157 82031.6570706428 2.70379067125835 83511.8358
54948.9971 64678.2028788072 0.540664688957086 72877.3686
100223.739 51295.9608636422 0.338543178633816 82227.3349
136130.912 10263.0117409074 0.0815379595663975 96085.8079
128946.804 26967.7035222722 0.264443435196743 102042.226
110069.411 4836.58894331835 0.0420917005493042 102029.601
113455.023 9585.6766829955 0.0779065519214008 104604.881
120164.997 17039.8969951013 0.165235204572905 108292.045
108237.069 39557.9690985304 0.575982636617696 107258.656
80546.4907 31557.2092704409 0.281500158071864 99542.7446
102636.537 17710.5372188677 0.208540814578194 102054.936
90239.1612 8499.66116566032 0.103984746244598 98629.1485
1917954.19 502883.27935639 7.41560519904162 1690325.81
PRONOSTICO PERIODO 25
2023 25 84289.3983496981
VALOR ABSOLUTO VALOR ABSOLUTO/Dt
0 0
9533.3 0.36156591458165
6637.84 0.242651020818482 160000
310.271999999997 0.00958946701488146
140000
581.517599999996 0.018159826620282
13054.58592 0.286649376838962 120000
48101.568736 0.578144549885276
27219.6549888 0.378375010096152 100000
32583.02399104 0.393773493588058
38644.219192832 0.40540118368451 80000
60720.9753542656 0.485267007282609
60000
34798.0802834125 0.31250998231179
53172.33577327 1.75257785307174 40000
46749.831381384 0.390796001088247
69292.3651051072 0.457315881070958 20000
29782.0920840857 0.236613879186717
63.1263327314082 0.00061901245187895 0
0 5 10
12876.3989338149 0.11206028348228
18435.8191470519 0.149835128921177 160000
5166.94468235849 0.0501036574253842
38579.5557458868 0.561736477995297 140000
12560.9554032905 0.112047643416681
17128.9356773676 0.201692481423446 120000
16889.6485418941 0.206627744748794
100000
592883.046874593 7.70411287700525
80000
25777.5237771562
33% 60000
40000
20000
0
0.5 1 1.5 2
Analisis graficas
Conclusiones
Conclusiones
onclusiones
onclusiones
11 0.3 63 18.9
12 0.5 182 91
13 0.9 214 192.6
14 6.2 1764 10936.8
15 6.4 1873 11987.2
16 1.1 388 426.8
17 1.2 342 410.4
18 1 258 258
19 2.3 452 1039.6
20 2.8 634 1775.2
21 3.4 756 2570.4
22 3.7 952 3522.4
23 3.9 1053 4106.7
24 3.9 1125 4387.5
84.5 25011 112434.5
Resumen
Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.964274814
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.929825918
R^2 ajustado 0.926636186
Error típico 161.2568764
Observaciones 24
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Regresión 1 7580259.46122 7580259.46122 291.506058393
Residuos 22 572083.163781 26003.7801719
Total 23 8152342.625
Valor crítico de F
3.53331652E-14
Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0%
-202.298154258 96.6898059959 -202.298154258 96.6898059959
273.211282239 348.760319634 273.211282239 348.760319634
MAPE (Error
porcentual medio n B1 B0 R
absoluto)
15.20% 24 310.9858 -52.804 0.964274814
Edad vs C
2000
f(x) = 310.985800936681 x − 52.804174131
1800 R² = 0.929825917518897
1600
1400
1200
1000
Costo de
mantenimiento en 800
E)
3,2 años de
funcionamiento $ 942.35 600
400
200
0
0 1 2 3
Edad vs Costo
x) = 310.985800936681 x − 52.8041741312313
² = 0.929825917518897 Se llega al análisis de que el gráfico se
comporta de forma lineal y su
variabilidad es alta.