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EQUIPO: 4
ENTREGA: EL DíA DOMINGO 22 DE ENERO DEL 2024 POR LA PLATAFORMA DIGITAL CLA
CONOMICOS DE CORTO PLAZO
2212011797
2212010245
2212008503
2213003182
1993/01 13799678.6852975
1993/02 13804663.9733671 1993/01
1993/03 13965041.2057153 1993/02
1993/04 14052464.6157493 1993/03
1994/01 14192050.7657376 1993/04
1994/02 14515490.5425483 1994/01
1994/03 14597129.8996567 1994/02
1994/04 14754088.9511704 1994/03
1995/01 14074947.3238984 1994/04
1995/02 13227004.1586105 1995/01
1995/03 13509168.7534186 1995/02
1995/04 13818105.4683455 1995/03
1996/01 14139994.3424295 1995/04
1996/02 14292773.9522074 1996/01
1996/03 14502401.883655 1996/02
1996/04 14961727.8547203 1996/03
1997/01 15016997.3296095 1996/04
1997/02 15365183.8828566 1997/01
1997/03 15690236.0211888 1997/02
1997/04 16131831.9566173 1997/03
1998/01 16377514.0473787 1997/04
1998/02 16497933.3955068 1998/01
1998/03 16580483.7617594 1998/02
1998/04 16608604.9000534 1998/03
1999/01 16752242.5702508 1998/04
1999/02 16877631.432985 1999/01
1999/03 17038765.4757549 1999/02
1999/04 17207797.0795912 1999/03
2000/01 17565560.8219561 1999/04
2000/02 17786276.6477136 2000/01
2000/03 17983191.3987931 2000/02
2000/04 17778668.3254727 2000/03
2001/01 17889742.9588398 2000/04
2001/02 17759046.0072551 2001/01
2001/03 17723833.0189592 2001/02
2001/04 17569258.5309236 2001/03
2002/01 17463157.4768765 2001/04
2002/02 17641738.2387901 2002/01
2002/03 17814045.1340341 2002/02
2002/04 17851269.0680958 2002/03
2003/01 17840000.4581159 2002/04
2003/02 17871415.9791504 2003/01
2003/03 17877236.6013414 2003/02
2003/04 18039929.8929674 2003/03
2004/01 18278872.5667732 2003/04
2004/02 18524975.4331725 2004/01
2004/03 18509521.796019 2004/02
2004/04 18707601.6341511 2004/03
2005/01 18753456.7549066 2004/04
2005/02 18745682.1325555 2005/01
2005/03 18943333.7270335 2005/02
2005/04 19294263.2360814 2005/03
2006/01 19669718.6328863 2005/04
2006/02 19844934.003008 2006/01
2006/03 19893635.6507583 2006/02
2006/04 19963490.254225 2006/03
2007/01 20100347.6343922 2006/04
2007/02 20237802.8331306 2007/01
2007/03 20310466.5975071 2007/02
2007/04 20358134.6551788 2007/03
2008/01 20367656.9237242 2007/04
2008/02 20498190.7367728 2008/01
2008/03 20524570.1793369 2008/02
2008/04 20194642.8479538 2008/03
2009/01 18944621.830446 2008/04
2009/02 18640707.518408 2009/01
2009/03 19310948.2528089 2009/02
2009/04 19727065.163196 2009/03
2010/01 19805180.578864 2009/04
2010/02 20041506.3691255 2010/01
2010/03 20218212.4439215 2010/02
2010/04 20381633.49173 2010/03
2011/01 20517164.6406726 2010/04
2011/02 20607278.1533956 2011/01
2011/03 20974075.6699735 2011/02
2011/04 21125201.2099125 2011/03
2012/01 21329398.7688367 2011/04
2012/02 21475709.4769027 2012/01
2012/03 21513554.743559 2012/02
2012/04 21681616.6808096 2012/03
2013/01 21707615.2188707 2012/04
2013/02 21612510.4866032 2013/01
2013/03 21747798.8802054 2013/02
2013/04 21855548.8043342 2013/03
2014/01 21995457.6762634 2013/04
2014/02 22287146.8134772 2014/01
2014/03 22318423.920175 2014/02
2014/04 22508120.360347 2014/03
2015/01 22612766.2736924 2014/04
2015/02 22821145.7525961 2015/01
2015/03 23086450.9934396 2015/02
2015/04 23014114.0340328 2015/03
2016/01 23010538.2492402 2015/04
2016/02 23083622.5523822 2016/01
2016/03 23298443.327934 2016/02
2016/04 23550832.6282304 2016/03
2017/01 23702578.2678092 2016/04
2017/02 23724624.7382563 2017/01
2017/03 23581136.2687447 2017/02
2017/04 23885384.7631666 2017/03
2018/01 24215643.2298161 2017/04
2018/02 24109935.6852158 2018/01
2018/03 24232331.9377075 2018/02
2018/04 24195231.3323494 2018/03
2019/01 24226135.7511454 2018/04
2019/02 24194026.82607 2019/01
2019/03 24146387.8214291 2019/02
2019/04 23950744.2473108 2019/03
2020/01 23666127.6731532 2019/04
2020/02 19162404.954175 2020/01
2020/03 22110882.671709 2020/02
2020/04 23065019.4696669 2020/03
2021/01 23173363.4229689 2020/04
2021/02 23334544.1797265 2021/01
2021/03 23242666.392624 2021/02
2021/04 23502494.867615 2021/03
2022/01 23866985.8842756 2021/04
2022/02 24103781.1302189 2022/01
2022/03 24397544.2990173 2022/02
2022/04 24562879.0485925 2022/03
2023/01 24702963.4900008 2022/04
2023/02 24933845.5771566 2023/01
2023/03 25200668.7363475 2023/02
2023/03
Fuentes: /f1 INEGI. Series calculadas por métodos econométricos a partir de
las series originales del Producto Interno Bruto trimestral.
Log10 PIB Dif (Log10 PIB) HP Trend HP Cycle (1,600) HP Trend HP Cycle (1,096)
7.1398689743 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1400258397 0.002197034712 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1450422215 0.070257193506 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1477525004 0.037932301051 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.152045156 0.060056018683 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1618317171 0.1368358413 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1642674728 0.034010233302 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1689123975 0.064834606645 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1484467782 -0.28547732432 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1214614901 -0.37749862185 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1306286268 0.128725497514 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1404485032 0.13771403415 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1504492357 0.140057484137 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1551165252 0.065272674751 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1614399359 0.088376069488 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1749817509 0.189093466007 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1765831035 0.022318560272 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.186537762 0.138710279841 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.1956294765 0.126510355767 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2076836894 0.16752131097 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2142479806 0.091073519964 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.217429546 0.044101136569 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2195971976 0.030033568718 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2203331538 0.010193868152 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2240729529 0.051795380937 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2273114987 0.044829915426 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2314381253 0.057097671242 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2357252761 0.059284899084 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2446620202 0.123508616318 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.250085043 0.074855428833 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2548667666 0.065954033839 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2498992279 -0.06847181115 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2526041006 0.037309107793 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2494196323 -0.04390792956 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2485576498 -0.01189036651 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2447534335 -0.05248238957 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2421227703 -0.03631128636 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2465413739 0.061012546935 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2507625483 0.05825088415 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2516690961 0.012502791753 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2513948612 -0.00378167929 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2521589637 0.010537317243 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.252300388 0.001950099313 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2562348454 0.05425116531 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2619494051 0.078753786165 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2677576407 0.079981768918 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2673951987 -0.00498698605 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2720181133 0.063611714301 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2730813313 0.014620673204 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2729012485 -0.00247601845 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2774564104 0.062631977291 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2854281994 0.109540869885 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2937981476 0.114886152536 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2976496589 0.052805291572 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2987141596 0.014586897737 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3002364721 0.020857269326 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3032035686 0.040643840677 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3061633605 0.040527309225 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3077199007 0.021304481192 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3087379826 0.013931594767 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.308941071 0.00277870737 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3117155299 0.037959793078 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.312274071 0.007638987662 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3052361769 -0.09624767974 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2774859404 -0.37986775258 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2704623922 -0.09651063867 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2858036001 0.211007320203 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2950624792 0.127081096157 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2967788066 0.023527247334 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3019303611 0.070600393048 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3057427556 0.052210776433 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3092389877 0.047855943345 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3121173435 0.039379691426 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3140206332 0.026029255264 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3216828305 0.104760401032 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3248008541 0.042586160847 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3289786138 0.057035811786 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3319475202 0.040509143079 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.332712176 0.010429095131 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3360916621 0.046087804874 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3366121148 0.007094414767 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.334705217 -0.0259915312 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3374153081 0.03694887502 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3395617163 0.029252920351 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3423330031 0.037758205257 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3480544739 0.077924425743 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3486635224 0.008288567564 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3523392288 0.05001870666 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3543536939 0.02739896747 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3583374447 0.054168605381 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3633571753 0.068218271748 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3619942607 -0.01850941946 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3619267776 -0.00091664187 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3633039644 0.018706880634 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3673269049 0.05463499091 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.372006266 0.063515047006 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3747955893 0.037836692192 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3751993517 0.005474896436 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.372564728 -0.03572274677 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3781322416 0.075516646576 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3840960095 0.080830320092 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3821960519 -0.02573040277 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3843952094 0.029790017805 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3837297788 -0.0090113081 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3842841465 0.007507962679 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3837081579 -0.00780019561 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3828521717 -0.01159290381 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3793190133 -0.04785628001 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3741272031 -0.07035622325 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.2824500138 -1.24322766365 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3446060801 0.853504880723 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3629538255 0.249812519248 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3649890726 0.027641720172 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3679993217 0.040872417737 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3662859487 -0.02325425036 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3711139665 0.065542090317 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3777975763 0.090672994205 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3820851752 0.058114889377 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3873461152 0.071266315003 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3902792697 0.039705117728 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3927490565 0.033419397464 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.3967892654 0.054650968093 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.4014120656 0.062497388673 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Log10 PIB
7.45
7.4
7.35
7.3
7.25
7.2
7.15
7.1
7.05
7
6.95
1993/01 1996/02 1999/03 2002/04 2006/01 2009/02 2012/03 2015/04 2019/01 2022/02
0.5
0
1993/01 1994/02 1995/03 1996/04 1998/01 1999/02 2000/03 2001/04 2003/01 2004/02 2005/03 2006/04 2008/01 2009/02
-0.5
-0.5
-1
-1.5
PICO: Es el momento “más álgido” del ciclo; encontrándonos con máxima actividad empresarial, precios elevados
Crisis (punto de inflexión o fondo): El punto más bajo del declive económico.
Recesión: corresponde a la fase descendente del ciclo. En la recesión se produce una caída importante de la inv
2 2005/03 2006/04 2008/01 2009/02 2010/03 2011/04 2013/01 2014/02 2015/03 2016/04 2018/01 2019/02 2020/03 2021/04 2023/01
empresarial, precios elevados, altas tasas de empleo y gran productividad.
Auge Económico:
A principios de 1994, México
Se observó una expansión e
La estabilidad macroeconóm
orando la actividad económica, el empleo y la productividad y aumentando
Entrada en Vigor del Tratad
crisis
El 1 de enero de 1994, entró
Se esperaba que el tratado g
na caída importante de la inversión, la producción y el empleo.
Crisis de Devaluación (Dic
A finales de 1994, México en
El 20 de diciembre de 1994,
Esta medida fue seguida por
Crisis Financiera y Rescate
La devaluación del peso mex
En enero de 1995, México se
estabilizar su economía.
El gobierno implementó med
El auge económico inicial en
sus consecuencias llevaron
Crecimiento Económico M
México registró un crecimien
tasas de crecimiento de año
Desafíos Económicos:
Se enfrentaron desafíos com
implementación de políticas
Inversiones y Confianza E
La inversión y la confianza e
gubernamentales y comercia
Políticas Gubernamentales
El gobierno mexicano implem
México registró un crecimien
tasas de crecimiento de año
Desafíos Económicos:
Se enfrentaron desafíos com
implementación de políticas
Inversiones y Confianza E
La inversión y la confianza e
gubernamentales y comercia
Políticas Gubernamentales
El gobierno mexicano implem
como la energía y la inversió
Desempeño del Sector Ma
El sector manufacturero y la
comercio internacional.
Es importante tener en cuen
considerados. La economía
La crisis económica en Méxi
propagación del virus. Aquí h
Impacto en la Actividad Ec
Las medidas de confinamien
incluidos el turismo, la hoste
Contracción del PIB:
México experimentó una con
Producto Interno Bruto (PIB)
Impacto en el Empleo:
La crisis tuvo un impacto sev
pérdida de empleos y reducc
Medidas de Estímulo y Apo
El gobierno mexicano implem
programas de apoyo a pequ
Desafíos en la Salud y Eco
México enfrentó desafíos sig
economía creó un escenario
Dependencia del Comercio
La economía mexicana, alta
contracción económica en E
Recuperación Gradual:
A medida que avanzó el tiem
sectores. Sin embargo, la re
Es importante señalar que la
factores, incluida la gestión c
PRIMER CICLO ECONOMICO 1994-2000
Auge Económico:
A principios de 1994, México estaba experimentando un período de crecimiento económico sólido.
Se observó una expansión en diversos sectores, incluyendo el industrial y el de servicios.
La estabilidad macroeconómica y las reformas económicas implementadas en los años previos contribuyeron a este auge.
Entrada en Vigor del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN):
El 1 de enero de 1994, entró en vigor el TLCAN, un acuerdo comercial entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá.
Se esperaba que el tratado generara beneficios económicos a largo plazo al fomentar el comercio y la inversión en la región.
Crisis de Devaluación (Diciembre de 1994):
A finales de 1994, México enfrentó una crisis económica y financiera.
El 20 de diciembre de 1994, el gobierno mexicano anunció la devaluación del peso mexicano.
Esta medida fue seguida por una serie de eventos que llevaron a una crisis financiera más amplia conocida como el "Efecto T
Crisis Financiera y Rescate:
La devaluación del peso mexicano llevó a una salida masiva de capitales y una crisis de confianza en los mercados financiero
En enero de 1995, México se vio obligado a buscar la ayuda del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) y del gobierno de los Es
estabilizar su economía.
El gobierno implementó medidas de austeridad y reformas económicas para abordar la crisis.
El auge económico inicial en 1994 fue seguido por la crisis financiera, que tuvo importantes repercusiones en la economía me
sus consecuencias llevaron a cambios significativos en las políticas económicas y financieras en los años posteriores.
idos y Canadá.
o y la inversión en la región.
s fiscales prudentes.
acional.
1993/01 13799678.6852975
1993/02 13804663.9733671
1993/03 13965041.2057153
1993/04 14052464.6157493
1994/01 14192050.7657376
1994/02 14515490.5425483
1994/03 14597129.8996567
1994/04 14754088.9511704
1995/01 14074947.3238984
1995/02 13227004.1586105
1995/03 13509168.7534186
1995/04 13818105.4683455
1996/01 14139994.3424295
1996/02 14292773.9522074
1996/03 14502401.883655
1996/04 14961727.8547203
1997/01 15016997.3296095
1997/02 15365183.8828566
1997/03 15690236.0211888
1997/04 16131831.9566173
1998/01 16377514.0473787
1998/02 16497933.3955068
1998/03 16580483.7617594
1998/04 16608604.9000534
1999/01 16752242.5702508
1999/02 16877631.432985
1999/03 17038765.4757549
1999/04 17207797.0795912
2000/01 17565560.8219561
2000/02 17786276.6477136
2000/03 17983191.3987931
2000/04 17778668.3254727
2001/01 17889742.9588398
2001/02 17759046.0072551
2001/03 17723833.0189592
2001/04 17569258.5309236
2002/01 17463157.4768765
2002/02 17641738.2387901
2002/03 17814045.1340341
2002/04 17851269.0680958
2003/01 17840000.4581159
2003/02 17871415.9791504
2003/03 17877236.6013414
2003/04 18039929.8929674
2004/01 18278872.5667732
2004/02 18524975.4331725
2004/03 18509521.796019
2004/04 18707601.6341511
2005/01 18753456.7549066
2005/02 18745682.1325555
2005/03 18943333.7270335
2005/04 19294263.2360814
2006/01 19669718.6328863
2006/02 19844934.003008
2006/03 19893635.6507583
2006/04 19963490.254225
2007/01 20100347.6343922
2007/02 20237802.8331306
2007/03 20310466.5975071
2007/04 20358134.6551788
2008/01 20367656.9237242
2008/02 20498190.7367728
2008/03 20524570.1793369
2008/04 20194642.8479538
2009/01 18944621.830446
2009/02 18640707.518408
2009/03 19310948.2528089
2009/04 19727065.163196
2010/01 19805180.578864
2010/02 20041506.3691255
2010/03 20218212.4439215
2010/04 20381633.49173
2011/01 20517164.6406726
2011/02 20607278.1533956
2011/03 20974075.6699735
2011/04 21125201.2099125
2012/01 21329398.7688367
2012/02 21475709.4769027
2012/03 21513554.743559
2012/04 21681616.6808096
2013/01 21707615.2188707
2013/02 21612510.4866032
2013/03 21747798.8802054
2013/04 21855548.8043342
2014/01 21995457.6762634
2014/02 22287146.8134772
2014/03 22318423.920175
2014/04 22508120.360347
2015/01 22612766.2736924
2015/02 22821145.7525961
2015/03 23086450.9934396
2015/04 23014114.0340328
2016/01 23010538.2492402
2016/02 23083622.5523822
2016/03 23298443.327934
2016/04 23550832.6282304
2017/01 23702578.2678092
2017/02 23724624.7382563
2017/03 23581136.2687447
2017/04 23885384.7631666
2018/01 24215643.2298161
2018/02 24109935.6852158
2018/03 24232331.9377075
2018/04 24195231.3323494
2019/01 24226135.7511454
2019/02 24194026.82607
2019/03 24146387.8214291
2019/04 23950744.2473108
2020/01 23666127.6731532
2020/02 19162404.954175
2020/03 22110882.671709
2020/04 23065019.4696669
2021/01 23173363.4229689
2021/02 23334544.1797265
2021/03 23242666.392624
2021/04 23502494.867615
2022/01 23866985.8842756
2022/02 24103781.1302189
2022/03 24397544.2990173
2022/04 24562879.0485925
2023/01 24702963.4900008
2023/02 24933845.5771566
2023/03 25200668.7363475
6 7.25
7.2
4 7.15
7.1
2
7.05
7
0
1993/01 1996/01 1999/01 2002/01 2005/01 2008/01 2011/01 2014/01 2017/01 2020/01 2023/01 1993/01 1996/02 1999/03
0.1 1
0 0
1993/011996/011999/012002/012005/012008/012011/012014/012017/012020/012023/01 1993/01 1996/02 1999/03 2002/04
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1993/01 1995/01 1997/01 1999/01 2001/01 2003/01 2005/01 2007/01 2009/01 2011/01 2013/01 2015/01 2017/01 2019/01 2021/01 2023/01
PIB real México y tendencia del PIB, 1993:01
2023:03 (1600)
7.45
7.4
7.35
7.3
7.25
7.2
7.15
7.1
7.05
7
1993/01 1996/02 1999/03 2002/04 2006/01 2009/02 2012/03 2015/04 2019/01 2022/02
0
1993/01 1996/02 1999/03 2002/04 2006/01 2009/02 2012/03 2015/04 2019/01 2022/02
03 (1600)
1 2019/01 2021/01 2023/01
VOLATILIDAD CRITERIO 1 1993/01
Tasa de Crecimiento 1993/02
Variacion total del PIB 16.0645240665633 1993/03
Promedio simple del PIB 2.96215756607685 1993/04
1994/01
1994/02
La dispersion media es de 16.064524 por encima o por de bajo 1994/03
dela variablees la distancia que existe entre una valor dde la 1994/04
serie y su referencia de valor 1995/01
1995/02
De la tasa de variacion del PIB en promedio ante el perioodo 1995/03
1993 al 2023 la variacion es del 2.96215 % 1995/04
1996/01
1996/02
1996/03
1996/04
1997/01
1997/02
1997/03
1997/04
1998/01
1998/02
1998/03
1998/04
1999/01
1999/02
1999/03
1999/04
2000/01
2000/02
2000/03
2000/04
2001/01
2001/02
2001/03
2001/04
2002/01
2002/02
2002/03
2002/04
2003/01
2003/02
2003/03
2003/04
2004/01
2004/02
2004/03
2004/04
2005/01
2005/02
2005/03
2005/04
2006/01
2006/02
2006/03
2006/04
2007/01
2007/02
2007/03
2007/04
2008/01
2008/02
2008/03
2008/04
2009/01
2009/02
2009/03
2009/04
2010/01
2010/02
2010/03
2010/04
2011/01
2011/02
2011/03
2011/04
2012/01
2012/02
2012/03
2012/04
2013/01
2013/02
2013/03
2013/04
2014/01
2014/02
2014/03
2014/04
2015/01
2015/02
2015/03
2015/04
2016/01
2016/02
2016/03
2016/04
2017/01
2017/02
2017/03
2017/04
2018/01
2018/02
2018/03
2018/04
2019/01
2019/02
2019/03
2019/04
2020/01
2020/02
2020/03
2020/04
2021/01
2021/02
2021/03
2021/04
2022/01
2022/02
2022/03
2022/04
2023/01
2023/02
2023/03
Log10 PIB Dif (Log10 PIB)
7.13986897 La tasa de crecimiento es del 16%
7.14002584 0.00219703471
7.14504222 0.07025719351
La variación total del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) y la variación promedio
7.1477525 0.03793230105 del PIB son conceptos relacionados pero distintos en términos
7.15204516 0.06005601868 económicos.
7.16183172 0.1368358413 Variación Total del PIB:
7.16426747 0.0340102333 1=La variación total del PIB se refiere al cambio absoluto en el valor total
del Producto Interno Bruto de un país entre dos períodos de tiempo
7.1689124 0.06483460664 específicos.
7.14844678 -0.28547732432 2=Se calcula restando el valor del PIB al final del período inicial del valor
7.12146149 -0.37749862185 del PIB al final del período final. La fórmula sería: Variación Total del PIB
7.13062863 0.12872549751 = PIB Final - PIB Inicial.
Variación Promedio del PIB:
7.1404485 0.13771403415
1= La variación promedio del PIB, por otro lado, se refiere al cambio
7.15044924 0.14005748414 promedio anual en el PIB a lo largo de un período de tiempo más largo.
7.15511653 0.06527267475 2= Se calcula dividiendo la variación total del PIB entre el número de
7.16143994 0.08837606949 años en ese período. La fórmula sería: Variación Promedio del PIB =
7.17498175 0.18909346601 Variación Total del PIB / Número de Años.
7.1765831 0.02231856027 En resumen, la variación total del PIB es simplemente el cambio absoluto
7.18653776 0.13871027984 en el valor del PIB entre dos puntos en el tiempo, mientras que la
7.19562948 0.12651035577 variación promedio del PIB proporciona una medida promedio del cambio
7.20768369 0.16752131097 anual en el PIB a lo largo de un período más extenso. Ambas medidas
son importantes para entender cómo la economía de un país ha
7.21424798 0.09107351996
evolucionado a lo largo del tiempo, pero cada una ofrece una perspectiva
7.21742955 0.04410113657 diferente sobre el crecimiento económico.
7.2195972 0.03003356872
7.22033315 0.01019386815
7.22407295 0.05179538094
7.2273115 0.04482991543
7.23143813 0.05709767124
7.23572528 0.05928489908
7.24466202 0.12350861632
7.25008504 0.07485542883
7.25486677 0.06595403384
7.24989923 -0.06847181115
7.2526041 0.03730910779
7.24941963 -0.04390792956
7.24855765 -0.01189036651
7.24475343 -0.05248238957
7.24212277 -0.03631128636
7.24654137 0.06101254694
7.25076255 0.05825088415
7.2516691 0.01250279175
7.25139486 -0.00378167929
7.25215896 0.01053731724
7.25230039 0.00195009931
7.25623485 0.05425116531
7.26194941 0.07875378616
7.26775764 0.07998176892
7.2673952 -0.00498698605
7.27201811 0.0636117143
7.27308133 0.0146206732
7.27290125 -0.00247601845
7.27745641 0.06263197729
7.2854282 0.10954086988
7.29379815 0.11488615254
7.29764966 0.05280529157
7.29871416 0.01458689774
7.30023647 0.02085726933
7.30320357 0.04064384068
7.30616336 0.04052730922
7.3077199 0.02130448119
7.30873798 0.01393159477
7.30894107 0.00277870737
7.31171553 0.03795979308
7.31227407 0.00763898766
7.30523618 -0.09624767974
7.27748594 -0.37986775258
7.27046239 -0.09651063867
7.2858036 0.2110073202
7.29506248 0.12708109616
7.29677881 0.02352724733
7.30193036 0.07060039305
7.30574276 0.05221077643
7.30923899 0.04785594335
7.31211734 0.03937969143
7.31402063 0.02602925526
7.32168283 0.10476040103
7.32480085 0.04258616085
7.32897861 0.05703581179
7.33194752 0.04050914308
7.33271218 0.01042909513
7.33609166 0.04608780487
7.33661211 0.00709441477
7.33470522 -0.0259915312
7.33741531 0.03694887502
7.33956172 0.02925292035
7.342333 0.03775820526
7.34805447 0.07792442574
7.34866352 0.00828856756
7.35233923 0.05001870666
7.35435369 0.02739896747
7.35833744 0.05416860538
7.36335718 0.06821827175
7.36199426 -0.01850941946
7.36192678 -0.00091664187
7.36330396 0.01870688063
7.3673269 0.05463499091
7.37200627 0.06351504701
7.37479559 0.03783669219
7.37519935 0.00547489644
7.37256473 -0.03572274677
7.37813224 0.07551664658
7.38409601 0.08083032009
7.38219605 -0.02573040277
7.38439521 0.02979001781
7.38372978 -0.0090113081
7.38428415 0.00750796268
7.38370816 -0.00780019561
7.38285217 -0.01159290381
7.37931901 -0.04785628001
7.3741272 -0.07035622325
7.28245001 -1.24322766365
7.34460608 0.85350488072
7.36295383 0.24981251925
7.36498907 0.02764172017
7.36799932 0.04087241774
7.36628595 -0.02325425036
7.37111397 0.06554209032
7.37779758 0.09067299421
7.38208518 0.05811488938
7.38734612 0.071266315
7.39027927 0.03970511773
7.39274906 0.03341939746
7.39678927 0.05465096809
7.40141207 0.06249738867
y la variación promedio
en términos
e refiere al cambio
de tiempo más largo.
entre el número de
Promedio del PIB =
Fuentes:
/f1 INEGI. Series calculadas por métodos econométricos a pa
ONSUMO PRIVADO ©
0
1993/01 1995/02 1997/03 1999/04 2002/01 2004/02 2006/03 2008/04 2011/01 2013/02 2015/03 2017/04 20
-0.02
0.00593799 0.00546718
0.00363989 0.00417983 -0.04
0.0061976 0.00297314
0.0064395 0.0090866 -0.06
0.00824423 0.01014782
0.01550942 0.01759118
-0.08
0.01537133 0.02345153
0.01736119 0.0227996
-0.1
-0.00587903 -0.00594952
-0.03580766 -0.02231078 HP Cycle PIB(1,600) HP Cycle C (1,600)
-0.02979811 -0.0226592
-0.02337321 -0.02260602
-0.01700934 -0.0195802
-0.0162107 -0.021907
-0.01396702 -0.01765272
-0.00468513 -0.01181536
-0.00748432 -0.01062251
-0.0020283 -0.00469089
0.00251387 -0.00211764
0.0100161 0.00223771
0.01207287 0.00723578
0.010832 0.00553889
0.00869538 0.0016037
0.00527157 -0.00088921
0.00501696 -0.00554688
0.00444407 -0.00350972
0.00495667 0.00096277
0.00583888 0.00249261
0.01158834 0.00921808
0.01404667 0.01174442
0.01608398 0.01549509
0.00858121 0.01486212
0.00893888 0.01312142
0.00356873 0.00838921
0.00065048 0.00448085
-0.00511489 0.00336822
-0.00964636 0.00059137
-0.00709973 0.00240127
-0.00474722 -0.00044239
-0.00572708 -0.00447565
-0.00792359 -0.00340074
-0.00913215 -0.00308989
-0.01102334 -0.00348087
-0.00918532 -0.00398479
-0.005628 -0.00574633
-0.00202903 -0.00501268
-0.00464049 -0.00464055
-0.00229279 -0.00240409
-0.00351453 -0.00495492
-0.00597144 -0.00684337
-0.00366488 -0.00257235
0.00211033 0.00044826
0.00836185 0.00619783
0.01019784 0.00960206
0.0093693 0.01001082
0.00913424 0.00952526
0.01048696 0.00959823
0.01197698 0.01097908
0.01220344 0.00752538
0.01201869 0.01010601
0.01112616 0.01355655
0.01288466 0.01764647
0.01247238 0.01494215
0.00446623 -0.00320222
-0.02430003 -0.02522322
-0.03244055 -0.03160254
-0.01835521 -0.02251433
-0.01050879 -0.01512748
-0.01036773 -0.01517377
-0.0069539 -0.00836497
-0.00503485 -0.0089467
-0.00357642 -0.00433896
-0.00286598 0.00209001
-0.00324418 0.00126363
0.00204131 0.00374631
0.00270779 0.0020373
0.00437827 -0.00227212
0.00480157 -9.5455E-05
0.00299696 0.00192034
0.00379521 0.00322439
0.00173223 0.00406696
-0.00275284 0.00168868
-0.00260934 0.00074252
-0.00300987 -0.00023431
-0.00275617 -0.00156721
0.00048864 0.00126089
-0.00132475 -0.00081652
-4.2552E-06 -0.00017523
-0.00026396 0.00016409
0.00154049 0.0009534
0.00448977 0.00262498
0.0011783 0.0041722
-0.00070564 0.00323595
-0.00100332 -0.00033449
0.00149627 0.00178122
0.00481435 0.00520537
0.00641407 0.00565817
0.00580653 0.00639466
0.00234149 0.00594821
0.00725846 0.00582775
0.01274905 0.01145738
0.01054626 0.00852263
0.01259792 0.01037952
0.01191876 0.01026163
0.01256368 0.01228436
0.01214562 0.01395001
0.01147019 0.01591336
0.00808784 0.0165876
0.00295758 0.00349461
-0.0888119 -0.09341098
-0.0269684 -0.04225037
-0.00916441 -0.01894446
-0.00789817 -0.01549667
-0.00587052 -0.01005661
-0.00876349 -0.00557411
-0.00529179 0.00171795
-0.00011548 0.00507198
0.0025429 0.00665384
0.00608182 0.00642613
0.00722768 0.00480862
0.00786865 0.01155956
0.01005773 0.01181576
0.01282139 0.01413844
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (IN
Banco de Información Económica (BIE)
Fecha de consulta: 19/01/2024 14:38:22
Periodos
1993/01
1993/02
1993/03
1993/04
1994/01
1994/02
1994/03
1994/04
1995/01
HP Cycle C (1,600) 1995/02
1995/03
1995/04
1996/01
1996/02
1996/03
1996/04
1997/01
1997/02
1997/03
1997/04
1998/01
1998/02
1998/03
1998/04
1999/01
1999/02
1999/03
1999/04
2000/01
2000/02
2000/03
2000/04
2001/01
2001/02
2001/03
2001/04
2002/01
2002/02
2002/03
2002/04
2003/01
2003/02
2003/03
2003/04
2004/01
2004/02
2004/03
2004/04
2005/01
2005/02
2005/03
2005/04
2006/01
2006/02
2006/03
2006/04
2007/01
2007/02
2007/03
2007/04
2008/01
2008/02
2008/03
2008/04
2009/01
2009/02
2009/03
2009/04
2010/01
2010/02
2010/03
2010/04
2011/01
2011/02
2011/03
2011/04
2012/01
2012/02
2012/03
2012/04
2013/01
2013/02
2013/03
2013/04
2014/01
2014/02
2014/03
2014/04
2015/01
2015/02
2015/03
2015/04
2016/01
2016/02
2016/03
2016/04
2017/01
2017/02
2017/03
2017/04
2018/01
2018/02
2018/03
2018/04
2019/01
2019/02
2019/03
2019/04
2020/01
2020/02
2020/03
2020/04
2021/01
2021/02
2021/03
2021/04
2022/01
2022/02
2022/03
2022/04
2023/01
2023/02
2023/03
Fuentes:
/f1 INEGI. Series calculadas por métodos econométricos a p
nstituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) CONSUMO DE GOBIERNO (G)
Banco de Información Económica (BIE)
echa de consulta: 19/01/2024 14:38:22
uentes:
1 INEGI. Series calculadas por métodos econométricos a partir de las series ori
GOBIERNO (G)
0.02
HP Cycle HP Cycle G
PIB(1,600) (1,600)
0
1 6 11 16 21 26 3
-0.02
0.02
0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101 106 111 116 121
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
-0.1
1993/01 3010095.73927736
1993/02 3027033.72839062
1993/03 3096251.4954832
1993/04 3329566.79838426
1994/01 3479976.81892948
1994/02 3597412.31453178
1994/03 3585570.93339317
1994/04 3461918.99449434
1995/01 2471515.394227
1995/02 2166550.91896764
1995/03 2240674.1221529
1995/04 2434394.87695151
1996/01 2544736.17515315
1996/02 2670619.5803924
1996/03 2845793.55335584
1996/04 2989311.24557231
1997/01 2959552.43760781
1997/02 3143722.03073822
1997/03 3297548.99608235
1997/04 3368428.2549715
1998/01 3483430.10668871
1998/02 3539255.48988113
1998/03 3577394.95447648
1998/04 3548780.88644175
1999/01 3672032.85273445
1999/02 3682558.70923147
1999/03 3669035.43250759
1999/04 3757409.03073358
2000/01 3847775.68537659
2000/02 3917200.56928762
2000/03 3926273.82310108
2000/04 3819591.18800609
2001/01 3663926.4479133
2001/02 3560926.75570219
2001/03 3645798.13255851
2001/04 3579330.3096459
2002/01 3522331.70997808
2002/02 3541855.49193572
2002/03 3635100.7277378
2002/04 3671957.68191587
2003/01 3647589.43170402
2003/02 3668575.99078543
2003/03 3658789.36463158
2003/04 3655893.77184008
2004/01 3842054.85281546
2004/02 3915564.33384045
2004/03 3864468.38176826
2004/04 3965172.93285717
2005/01 4026632.54028976
2005/02 4032404.44261096
2005/03 4046515.92480578
2005/04 4238849.71853518
2006/01 4352738.68894173
2006/02 4486585.25552788
2006/03 4529149.47017455
2006/04 4545262.72255533
2007/01 4561661.2081559
2007/02 4657963.48568348
2007/03 4909294.77286983
2007/04 5022641.29102438
2008/01 5128964.46164898
2008/02 5212538.1720569
2008/03 5152992.40580225
2008/04 4939419.5485421
2009/01 4449508.60247424
2009/02 4454016.04400647
2009/03 4514158.38482308
2009/04 4551964.23202456
2010/01 4670319.9718636
2010/02 4766084.98206302
2010/03 4733843.5237927
2010/04 4912693.42151808
2011/01 4947000.15796344
2011/02 5118231.20374723
2011/03 5276177.53305825
2011/04 5396774.85348769
2012/01 5374306.48089352
2012/02 5399018.30688133
2012/03 5444244.47465798
2012/04 5340588.9028573
2013/01 5320421.64838052
2013/02 5150585.92102233
2013/03 5120236.819085
2013/04 5125192.8222107
2014/01 5190699.53060929
2014/02 5287355.03019913
2014/03 5253163.96765258
2014/04 5454742.98139636
2015/01 5388740.8872783
2015/02 5536873.48740195
2015/03 5702605.13594403
2015/04 5535686.73142359
2016/01 5575392.01802907
2016/02 5531960.22459413
2016/03 5514664.75890822
2016/04 5670428.66762828
2017/01 5560663.81522056
2017/02 5489893.45793063
2017/03 5555453.26651377
2017/04 5579183.26535107
2018/01 5678833.99119049
2018/02 5609886.63159013
2018/03 5570817.36408377
2018/04 5466629.65821492
2019/01 5488475.40742109
2019/02 5370041.90513264
2019/03 5275445.89130227
2019/04 5214939.33732568
2020/01 5018333.81653416
2020/02 3623156.56898019
2020/03 4326266.1743717
2020/04 4676230.74601243
2021/01 4733304.66330831
2021/02 4776037.15120764
2021/03 4881937.51677501
2021/04 4963453.12343302
2022/01 5119565.24588274
2022/02 5168211.87857082
2022/03 5148224.05107494
2022/04 5402382.60594364
2023/01 5788844.35805517
2023/02 6188783.31524287
2023/03 6462585.00509434
Fuentes:
/f1 INEGI. Series calculadas por métodos econométricos a partir de las s
FORMACION BRUTA DEL CAPITAL FIJO (I)
HP Cycle I HP Cycle
Log10 I Dif (Log10 I) HP Trend I HP Trend
(1,600) (1,096)
HP Cycle HP Cycle I
PIB(1,600) (1,600)
0.05
0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45
VOLATILIDAD CRITERIO #2 0.00593799 -0.00390695
HP CYCLE-STND DESVT I 0.00363989 0.00034467 -0.05
#NAME? 0.0061976 0.01198074
HP CYCLE-STND DESVT PIB 0.0064395 0.04535402
-0.1
#NAME? 0.00824423 0.06636383
RELATIVE DESVT 0.01550942 0.08256467
#NAME? 0.01537133 0.08281047 -0.15
RELATIVE DESVT 0.01736119 0.06901078
#NAME? -0.00587903 -0.0763155
-0.2
-0.03580766 -0.13311861
-0.02979811 -0.11892738 HP Cyc
-0.02337321 -0.08423418
-0.01700934 -0.06721847
-0.0162107 -0.04936584
-0.01396702 -0.02569341
-0.00468513 -0.00893775
-0.00748432 -0.01846284
-0.0020283 0.00213814
0.00251387 0.01697337
0.0100161 0.02014377
0.01207287 0.02863456
0.010832 0.02954481
0.00869538 0.02839958
0.00527157 0.01938748
0.00501696 0.02902997
0.00444407 0.0254793
0.00495667 0.01951226
0.00583888 0.02592161
0.01158834 0.03276301
0.01404667 0.03748568
0.01608398 0.03585218
0.00858121 0.02160052
0.00893888 0.00151557
0.00356873 -0.01270053
0.00065048 -0.00421255
-0.00511489 -0.0139379
-0.00964636 -0.02271793
-0.00709973 -0.0222722
-0.00474722 -0.01314596
-0.00572708 -0.01117287
-0.00792359 -0.0167575
-0.00913215 -0.01727267
-0.01102334 -0.02177192
-0.00918532 -0.02579508
-0.005628 -0.00823874
-0.00202903 -0.00433398
-0.00464049 -0.01464991
-0.00229279 -0.00834433
-0.00351453 -0.00674776
-0.00597144 -0.01138129
-0.00366488 -0.01524365
0.00211033 -0.00052482
0.00836185 0.00553846
0.01019784 0.0133025
0.0093693 0.01213786
0.00913424 0.00859234
0.01048696 0.00529203
0.01197698 0.0097649
0.01220344 0.02828923
0.01201869 0.0342363
0.01112616 0.03971411
0.01288466 0.04345235
0.01247238 0.03548703
0.00446623 0.01437377
-0.02430003 -0.03355587
-0.03244055 -0.03560902
-0.01835521 -0.03227399
-0.01050879 -0.03118682
-0.01036773 -0.02264638
-0.0069539 -0.01651916
-0.00503485 -0.02222951
-0.00357642 -0.00894435
-0.00286598 -0.00877058
-0.00324418 0.00316688
0.00204131 0.01357518
0.00270779 0.02068756
0.00437827 0.01629274
0.00480157 0.01583966
0.00299696 0.0171623
0.00379521 0.00665679
0.00173223 0.00298693
-0.00275284 -0.013016
-0.00260934 -0.01740173
-0.00300987 -0.01871711
-0.00275617 -0.01485323
0.00048864 -0.00839689
-0.00132475 -0.01265399
-4.2552E-06 0.00240278
-0.00026396 -0.00400352
0.00154049 0.00686451
0.00448977 0.01900923
0.0011783 0.00571972
-0.00070564 0.00873127
-0.00100332 0.00555341
0.00149627 0.00473292
0.00481435 0.01769664
0.00641407 0.01040548
0.00580653 0.00636456
0.00234149 0.01335173
0.00725846 0.0173263
0.01274905 0.02740391
0.01054626 0.0247164
0.01259792 0.02447312
0.01191876 0.01917039
0.01256368 0.02381869
0.01214562 0.01718362
0.01147019 0.01211502
0.00808784 0.00944338
0.00295758 -0.00534984
-0.0888119 -0.14550361
-0.0269684 -0.06786931
-0.00916441 -0.03423071
-0.00789817 -0.02985788
-0.00587052 -0.02757988
-0.00876349 -0.02036943
-0.00529179 -0.01612266
-0.00011548 -0.00617863
0.0025429 -0.00605595
0.00608182 -0.01211817
0.00722768 0.004124
0.00786865 0.0292344
0.01005773 0.05323467
0.01282139 0.06698067
LIDAD FORMACION BRUTA DEL CAPITAL FIJO (I) Y DEL PIB DE MEXICO
Fuentes:
/f1 INEGI. Series calculadas por métodos econométricos a partir de las seri
EXPORTACIONES (X)
0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 3
VOLATILIDAD CRITERIO #2 0.00593799 0.00864938
HP CYCLE-STND DESVT X 0.00363989 -0.00759991
#NAME? 0.0061976 -0.01221537
-0.05
HP CYCLE-STND DESVT PIB 0.0064395 -0.00250229
1.31075542827483 0.00824423 -0.02114726
RELATIVE DESVT 0.01550942 -0.02662199
-0.1
#NAME? 0.01537133 -0.02653332
RELATIVE DESVT 0.01736119 -0.0314216
#NAME? -0.00587903 0.03355284
-0.03580766 0.00133284 -0.15
-0.02979811 0.00236172
-0.02337321 0.00164245
-0.01700934 0.01914189 -0.2
-0.0162107 0.01842451
-0.01396702 0.01969469
-0.00468513 0.02123309
-0.00748432 0.0108553
-0.0020283 0.00354211
0.00251387 0.00525772
0.0100161 0.00407365
0.01207287 0.00142076
0.010832 0.00206328
0.00869538 -0.0123068
0.00527157 -0.00282647
0.00501696 -0.0102941
0.00444407 -0.01804708
0.00495667 -0.00986216
0.00583888 -0.00363309
0.01158834 0.0058877
0.01404667 0.02335553
0.01608398 0.02447463
0.00858121 0.02789605
0.00893888 0.03338394
0.00356873 0.01206205
0.00065048 3.97564E-05
-0.00511489 -0.01762668
-0.00964636 -0.01432945
-0.00709973 0.00599849
-0.00474722 0.00964993
-0.00572708 0.00467329
-0.00792359 -0.01187115
-0.00913215 -0.03526083
-0.01102334 -0.01779841
-0.00918532 -0.01665308
-0.005628 -0.02041456
-0.00202903 -0.01055319
-0.00464049 -0.00746376
-0.00229279 -0.00881769
-0.00351453 -0.00396154
-0.00597144 -0.00482627
-0.00366488 -0.00570182
0.00211033 0.01745275
0.00836185 0.02762912
0.01019784 0.03269862
0.0093693 0.01988519
0.00913424 0.01258884
0.01048696 0.01210132
0.01197698 0.01845583
0.01220344 0.03519801
0.01201869 0.02111657
0.01112616 0.01458423
0.01288466 0.00027692
0.01247238 -0.00990305
0.00446623 -0.00700454
-0.02430003 -0.04957488
-0.03244055 -0.0947958
-0.01835521 -0.0687492
-0.01050879 -0.03934291
-0.01036773 -0.0181463
-0.0069539 7.15909E-05
-0.00503485 0.01847444
-0.00357642 0.00899822
-0.00286598 0.01184758
-0.00324418 0.00022809
0.00204131 0.00885787
0.00270779 0.02383956
0.00437827 0.01952884
0.00480157 0.02976159
0.00299696 0.00602474
0.00379521 -0.00328523
0.00173223 -0.00664384
-0.00275284 -0.00908827
-0.00260934 0.00426373
-0.00300987 -0.00373128
-0.00275617 -0.00388759
0.00048864 0.0021237
-0.00132475 -0.00026503
-4.2552E-06 0.00673246
-0.00026396 0.00802913
0.00154049 0.01194838
0.00448977 0.01379809
0.0011783 -0.00439436
-0.00070564 -0.01074391
-0.00100332 -0.00842818
0.00149627 0.00511875
0.00481435 0.01038225
0.00641407 0.01140018
0.00580653 -0.0069376
0.00234149 -0.01686058
0.00725846 0.00648018
0.01274905 0.0118968
0.01054626 0.01523982
0.01259792 0.01525418
0.01191876 0.01460996
0.01256368 0.0131943
0.01214562 0.02168112
0.01147019 0.01901324
0.00808784 -0.00860363
0.00295758 0.01193811
-0.0888119 -0.1416171
-0.0269684 -0.0009521
-0.00916441 -7.8019E-06
-0.00789817 -0.01476046
-0.00587052 -0.01018511
-0.00876349 -0.00766335
-0.00529179 0.00915993
-0.00011548 0.01859441
0.0025429 0.02475938
0.00608182 0.0342397
0.00722768 0.0092856
0.00786865 0.00511216
0.01005773 -0.01055374
0.01282139 -0.02812737
VOLATILIDAD DE EXPORTACIONES Y EL PIB DE MEXICO
5
0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101 106 111 116 121
1993/01 2072727.8018857
1993/02 2162101.94670414
1993/03 2208358.54445384
1993/04 2313848.5613918
1994/01 2463805.22967379
1994/02 2565283.7209029
1994/03 2621173.45612113
1994/04 2684335.18694587
1995/01 2044073.01855725
1995/02 2103905.73468656
1995/03 2163144.65338193
1995/04 2212902.39682999
1996/01 2314345.207792
1996/02 2414137.86896322
1996/03 2557735.33679947
1996/04 2733366.64394557
1997/01 2776165.29214592
1997/02 2998246.07934597
1997/03 3256445.61332042
1997/04 3386768.85130943
1998/01 3540842.79624436
1998/02 3548581.27736145
1998/03 3512158.45534912
1998/04 3632490.6843059
1999/01 3685987.93189866
1999/02 3921828.87170572
1999/03 4069544.34497657
1999/04 4223746.19669624
2000/01 4496355.98492822
2000/02 4676741.76681232
2000/03 4971000.67932962
2000/04 5034689.98040344
2001/01 4934697.32517135
2001/02 4858947.08014382
2001/03 4673892.42482582
2001/04 4761320.92957529
2002/01 4886643.19915453
2002/02 4989087.22654548
2002/03 5015925.26460094
2002/04 5004313.63289068
2003/01 5017944.57424174
2003/02 5059895.06830349
2003/03 5186899.36407056
2003/04 5237313.32537861
2004/01 5317306.74810738
2004/02 5440851.08891794
2004/03 5469240.61630177
2004/04 5636335.80681535
2005/01 5644933.43624492
2005/02 5692973.1825332
2005/03 5749071.92448956
2005/04 6148572.19782229
2006/01 6236538.21410271
2006/02 6307968.02419163
2006/03 6270596.36907588
2006/04 6245805.22364702
2007/01 6396484.72286461
2007/02 6586149.35530354
2007/03 6731299.91655482
2007/04 6764780.93702382
2008/01 6858839.51063123
2008/02 6950871.6257274
2008/03 7161147.07157962
2008/04 6439619.24965435
2009/01 5488267.21218342
2009/02 5325765.22473774
2009/03 5905723.11323093
2009/04 6255707.73069905
2010/01 6504265.29260659
2010/02 6701020.89224761
2010/03 6791194.20841938
2010/04 6935696.68786826
2011/01 7060430.2348466
2011/02 7108552.71978884
2011/03 7230377.98773571
2011/04 7224597.04159303
2012/01 7424026.04233394
2012/02 7454513.46785485
2012/03 7492146.82109897
2012/04 7744734.40212718
2013/01 7797387.92233907
2013/02 7842588.53522903
2013/03 7845361.360691
2013/04 7831832.74612751
2014/01 8043588.15627337
2014/02 8255049.5865588
2014/03 8340624.92884667
2014/04 8537975.81724765
2015/01 8514274.93228237
2015/02 8698104.78170292
2015/03 8834352.82112958
2015/04 8790517.00773008
2016/01 8695986.44704392
2016/02 8841352.67777957
2016/03 8967556.23696003
2016/04 9077674.49710281
2017/01 9359934.59714117
2017/02 9382426.4906151
2017/03 9406050.58634557
2017/04 9585957.64828872
2018/01 9922104.6511608
2018/02 9825035.4140872
2018/03 9905531.23661764
2018/04 10183582.6807773
2019/01 9890664.15657919
2019/02 9859164.06986347
2019/03 9899669.135357
2019/04 9770924.51470478
2020/01 9545329.86584077
2020/02 7164932.73812268
2020/03 8378741.2735057
2020/04 9502185.28666301
2021/01 9879439.55013693
2021/02 9744351.0524671
2021/03 10002494.3993828
2021/04 10305946.1173376
2022/01 10421160.5260004
2022/02 10762213.6594921
2022/03 11109313.4613955
2022/04 10945071.0250081
2023/01 11497678.0587557
2023/02 11578786.4024787
2023/03 11309973.3007787
Fuentes:
/f1 INEGI. Series calculadas por métodos econométricos a partir de las series original
IMPORTACIONES (M)
HP Cycle HP Cycle M
PIB(1,600) (1,600)
0.05
0.05
0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101 105 109 113 117 121
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
0.02
4499507E-15
0
.04 -0.02 0 0.02 0.04
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
-0.1
0.02
1828304432 x + 1.05445219451438E-14
579415194
0
-0.005 0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
-0.1
rte de los datos estan un tanto separados entre si a medida que tiene una pendiente positiva y creciente
plicativo del modelo alcanza un 17% de confiabilidad
n entre el PIB y el consumo de gobierno es de 41%
consumo de gobierno es acíclica. Significa que el consumo de gobierno Sigue un poco al PIB pero en menor intencid
Columna 1 Columna 2
1
0.41299828 1
41.299828
HP Cycle I HP Cycle
Periodos (1,600) PIB(1,600) Analisis de disper
1993/01 -0.00390695 0.00593799
1993/02 0.00034467 0.00363989
f(x) = 0.325432409508046 x + 4.26932464
1993/03 0.01198074 0.0061976 R² = 0.763695943580576
1993/04 0.04535402 0.0064395
1994/01 0.06636383 0.00824423 -0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05
1994/02 0.08256467 0.01550942
1994/03 0.08281047 0.01537133
1994/04 0.06901078 0.01736119
1995/01 -0.0763155 -0.00587903
1995/02 -0.13311861 -0.03580766
1995/03 -0.11892738 -0.02979811
1995/04 -0.08423418 -0.02337321
1996/01 -0.06721847 -0.01700934
1996/02 -0.04936584 -0.0162107
1996/03 -0.02569341 -0.01396702 Columna 1
1996/04 -0.00893775 -0.00468513 Columna 1 1
1997/01 -0.01846284 -0.00748432 Columna 2 0.87389699
1997/02 0.00213814 -0.0020283 87.3896987
1997/03 0.01697337 0.00251387
itiva y creciente 1997/04 0.02014377 0.0100161
1998/01 0.02863456 0.01207287
1998/02 0.02954481 0.010832
PIB pero en menor intencidad 1998/03 0.02839958 0.00869538
1998/04 0.01938748 0.00527157 La mayor parte de datos de aglutina a
1999/01 0.02902997 0.00501696 El poder explicativo del modelo alcanza
1999/02 0.0254793 0.00444407 La correlacion entre el PIB y la formaci
1999/03 0.01951226 0.00495667 La variable formación bruta de capital
1999/04 0.02592161 0.00583888
2000/01 0.03276301 0.01158834
2000/02 0.03748568 0.01404667
2000/03 0.03585218 0.01608398
2000/04 0.02160052 0.00858121
2001/01 0.00151557 0.00893888
2001/02 -0.01270053 0.00356873
2001/03 -0.00421255 0.00065048
2001/04 -0.0139379 -0.00511489
2002/01 -0.02271793 -0.00964636
2002/02 -0.0222722 -0.00709973
2002/03 -0.01314596 -0.00474722
2002/04 -0.01117287 -0.00572708
2003/01 -0.0167575 -0.00792359
2003/02 -0.01727267 -0.00913215
2003/03 -0.02177192 -0.01102334
2003/04 -0.02579508 -0.00918532
2004/01 -0.00823874 -0.005628
2004/02 -0.00433398 -0.00202903
2004/03 -0.01464991 -0.00464049
2004/04 -0.00834433 -0.00229279
2005/01 -0.00674776 -0.00351453
2005/02 -0.01138129 -0.00597144
2005/03 -0.01524365 -0.00366488
2005/04 -0.00052482 0.00211033
2006/01 0.00553846 0.00836185
2006/02 0.0133025 0.01019784
2006/03 0.01213786 0.0093693
2006/04 0.00859234 0.00913424
2007/01 0.00529203 0.01048696
2007/02 0.0097649 0.01197698
2007/03 0.02828923 0.01220344
2007/04 0.0342363 0.01201869
2008/01 0.03971411 0.01112616
2008/02 0.04345235 0.01288466
2008/03 0.03548703 0.01247238
2008/04 0.01437377 0.00446623
2009/01 -0.03355587 -0.02430003
2009/02 -0.03560902 -0.03244055
2009/03 -0.03227399 -0.01835521
2009/04 -0.03118682 -0.01050879
2010/01 -0.02264638 -0.01036773
2010/02 -0.01651916 -0.0069539
2010/03 -0.02222951 -0.00503485
2010/04 -0.00894435 -0.00357642
2011/01 -0.00877058 -0.00286598
2011/02 0.00316688 -0.00324418
2011/03 0.01357518 0.00204131
2011/04 0.02068756 0.00270779
2012/01 0.01629274 0.00437827
2012/02 0.01583966 0.00480157
2012/03 0.0171623 0.00299696
2012/04 0.00665679 0.00379521
2013/01 0.00298693 0.00173223
2013/02 -0.013016 -0.00275284
2013/03 -0.01740173 -0.00260934
2013/04 -0.01871711 -0.00300987
2014/01 -0.01485323 -0.00275617
2014/02 -0.00839689 0.00048864
2014/03 -0.01265399 -0.00132475
2014/04 0.00240278 -4.2552E-06
2015/01 -0.00400352 -0.00026396
2015/02 0.00686451 0.00154049
2015/03 0.01900923 0.00448977
2015/04 0.00571972 0.0011783
2016/01 0.00873127 -0.00070564
2016/02 0.00555341 -0.00100332
2016/03 0.00473292 0.00149627
2016/04 0.01769664 0.00481435
2017/01 0.01040548 0.00641407
2017/02 0.00636456 0.00580653
2017/03 0.01335173 0.00234149
2017/04 0.0173263 0.00725846
2018/01 0.02740391 0.01274905
2018/02 0.0247164 0.01054626
2018/03 0.02447312 0.01259792
2018/04 0.01917039 0.01191876
2019/01 0.02381869 0.01256368
2019/02 0.01718362 0.01214562
2019/03 0.01211502 0.01147019
2019/04 0.00944338 0.00808784
2020/01 -0.00534984 0.00295758
2020/02 -0.14550361 -0.0888119
2020/03 -0.06786931 -0.0269684
2020/04 -0.03423071 -0.00916441
2021/01 -0.02985788 -0.00789817
2021/02 -0.02757988 -0.00587052
2021/03 -0.02036943 -0.00876349
2021/04 -0.01612266 -0.00529179
2022/01 -0.00617863 -0.00011548
2022/02 -0.00605595 0.0025429
2022/03 -0.01211817 0.00608182
2022/04 0.004124 0.00722768
2023/01 0.0292344 0.00786865
2023/02 0.05323467 0.01005773
2023/03 0.06698067 0.01282139
Analisis de dispersion
0.04
= 0.325432409508046 x + 4.26932464370761E-14
0.02
= 0.763695943580576
0
-0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
-0.1
Columna 2
rte de datos de aglutina a una media que tiene un apendiente positiva y que es creciente
plicativo del modelo alcanza un 76% de confiabilidad
on entre el PIB y la formación bruta de capital fijo es 87%
formación bruta de capital fijo es prosiclica significa que la formación bruta de capital fijo ltiende a seguir al PIB a lo
HP Cycle X HP Cycle
Periodos (1,600) PIB(1,600)
1993/01 0.00864938 0.00593799 An
1993/02 -0.00759991 0.00363989
1993/03 -0.01221537 0.0061976
1993/04 -0.00250229 0.0064395
1994/01 -0.02114726 0.00824423
f(x) = 0
1994/02 -0.02662199 0.01550942 R² = 0.3
-0.2 -0.15
1994/03 -0.02653332 0.01537133
1994/04 -0.0314216 0.01736119
1995/01 0.03355284 -0.00587903
1995/02 0.00133284 -0.03580766
1995/03 0.00236172 -0.02979811
1995/04 0.00164245 -0.02337321
1996/01 0.01914189 -0.01700934
1996/02 0.01842451 -0.0162107
1996/03 0.01969469 -0.01396702
1996/04 0.02123309 -0.00468513
1997/01 0.0108553 -0.00748432
1997/02 0.00354211 -0.0020283
1997/03 0.00525772 0.00251387
1997/04 0.00407365 0.0100161
1998/01 0.00142076 0.01207287
1998/02 0.00206328 0.010832
1998/03 -0.0123068 0.00869538
1998/04 -0.00282647 0.00527157
1999/01 -0.0102941 0.00501696 Una parte de datos de aglut
1999/02 -0.01804708 0.00444407 El poder explicativo del mod
ltiende a seguir al PIB a lo largo del tiempo 1999/03 -0.00986216 0.00495667 La correlacion entre el PIB y
1999/04 -0.00363309 0.00583888 La variable exportaciones e
2000/01 0.0058877 0.01158834
2000/02 0.02335553 0.01404667
2000/03 0.02447463 0.01608398
2000/04 0.02789605 0.00858121
2001/01 0.03338394 0.00893888
2001/02 0.01206205 0.00356873
2001/03 3.97564E-05 0.00065048
2001/04 -0.01762668 -0.00511489
2002/01 -0.01432945 -0.00964636
2002/02 0.00599849 -0.00709973
2002/03 0.00964993 -0.00474722
2002/04 0.00467329 -0.00572708
2003/01 -0.01187115 -0.00792359
2003/02 -0.03526083 -0.00913215
2003/03 -0.01779841 -0.01102334
2003/04 -0.01665308 -0.00918532
2004/01 -0.02041456 -0.005628
2004/02 -0.01055319 -0.00202903
2004/03 -0.00746376 -0.00464049
2004/04 -0.00881769 -0.00229279
2005/01 -0.00396154 -0.00351453
2005/02 -0.00482627 -0.00597144
2005/03 -0.00570182 -0.00366488
2005/04 0.01745275 0.00211033
2006/01 0.02762912 0.00836185
2006/02 0.03269862 0.01019784
2006/03 0.01988519 0.0093693
2006/04 0.01258884 0.00913424
2007/01 0.01210132 0.01048696
2007/02 0.01845583 0.01197698
2007/03 0.03519801 0.01220344
2007/04 0.02111657 0.01201869
2008/01 0.01458423 0.01112616
2008/02 0.00027692 0.01288466
2008/03 -0.00990305 0.01247238
2008/04 -0.00700454 0.00446623
2009/01 -0.04957488 -0.02430003
2009/02 -0.0947958 -0.03244055
2009/03 -0.0687492 -0.01835521
2009/04 -0.03934291 -0.01050879
2010/01 -0.0181463 -0.01036773
2010/02 7.15909E-05 -0.0069539
2010/03 0.01847444 -0.00503485
2010/04 0.00899822 -0.00357642
2011/01 0.01184758 -0.00286598
2011/02 0.00022809 -0.00324418
2011/03 0.00885787 0.00204131
2011/04 0.02383956 0.00270779
2012/01 0.01952884 0.00437827
2012/02 0.02976159 0.00480157
2012/03 0.00602474 0.00299696
2012/04 -0.00328523 0.00379521
2013/01 -0.00664384 0.00173223
2013/02 -0.00908827 -0.00275284
2013/03 0.00426373 -0.00260934
2013/04 -0.00373128 -0.00300987
2014/01 -0.00388759 -0.00275617
2014/02 0.0021237 0.00048864
2014/03 -0.00026503 -0.00132475
2014/04 0.00673246 -4.2552E-06
2015/01 0.00802913 -0.00026396
2015/02 0.01194838 0.00154049
2015/03 0.01379809 0.00448977
2015/04 -0.00439436 0.0011783
2016/01 -0.01074391 -0.00070564
2016/02 -0.00842818 -0.00100332
2016/03 0.00511875 0.00149627
2016/04 0.01038225 0.00481435
2017/01 0.01140018 0.00641407
2017/02 -0.0069376 0.00580653
2017/03 -0.01686058 0.00234149
2017/04 0.00648018 0.00725846
2018/01 0.0118968 0.01274905
2018/02 0.01523982 0.01054626
2018/03 0.01525418 0.01259792
2018/04 0.01460996 0.01191876
2019/01 0.0131943 0.01256368
2019/02 0.02168112 0.01214562
2019/03 0.01901324 0.01147019
2019/04 -0.00860363 0.00808784
2020/01 0.01193811 0.00295758
2020/02 -0.1416171 -0.0888119
2020/03 -0.0009521 -0.0269684
2020/04 -7.8019E-06 -0.00916441
2021/01 -0.01476046 -0.00789817
2021/02 -0.01018511 -0.00587052
2021/03 -0.00766335 -0.00876349
2021/04 0.00915993 -0.00529179
2022/01 0.01859441 -0.00011548
2022/02 0.02475938 0.0025429
2022/03 0.0342397 0.00608182
2022/04 0.0092856 0.00722768
2023/01 0.00511216 0.00786865
2023/02 -0.01055374 0.01005773
2023/03 -0.02812737 0.01282139
Analisis de dispersion
0.04
0.02
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
-0.1
Columna 1 Columna 2
Columna 1 1
Columna 2 0.5817526 1
58.1752595
Una parte de datos de aglutina a una media que tiene un apendiente positiva y que es creciente
El poder explicativo del modelo alcanza un 33% de confiabilidad
a correlacion entre el PIB y exportaciones es 58%
a variable exportaciones es prosiclica significa que las exportaciones ltiende a seguir al PIB a lo largo del tiempo
HP Cycle M HP Cycle
Periodos (1,600) PIB(1,600)
1993/01 -0.00132081 0.00593799 Analisis de disp
1993/02 0.00941753 0.00363989 0
1993/03 0.01101622 0.0061976
1993/04 0.0236826 0.0064395
f(x) = 0.413488592979204 x + 3.89544631250099E-140
1994/01 0.0433389 0.00824423 R² = 0.822215660462712
1994/02 0.05320986 0.01550942
1994/03 0.05481538 0.01537133 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05
1994/04 0.05721768 0.01736119 -0
1995/01 -0.06936655 -0.00587903
1995/02 -0.06554288 -0.03580766 -0
1995/03 -0.06276586 -0.02979811
1995/04 -0.0628203 -0.02337321 -0
1996/01 -0.05396797 -0.01700934
1996/02 -0.04692433 -0.0162107 -0
1996/03 -0.03375837 -0.01396702
1996/04 -0.01741221 -0.00468513 -
1997/01 -0.02363958 -0.00748432
1997/02 -0.00357039 -0.0020283
1997/03 0.01869098 0.00251387 Columna 1
1997/04 0.02197283 0.0100161 Columna 1 1
1998/01 0.02749541 0.01207287 Columna 2 0.90676108
1998/02 0.01469872 0.010832 90.6761082
1998/03 -0.00339789 0.00869538
1998/04 -0.00218864 0.00527157
1999/01 -0.0089975 0.00501696
1999/02 0.0051113 0.00444407 Una parte de datos de aglutina a una m
1999/03 0.00874993 0.00495667 El poder explicativo del modelo alcanza
PIB a lo largo del tiempo 1999/04 0.01296273 0.00583888 La correlacion entre el PIB e importacio
2000/01 0.02873208 0.01158834 La variable importaciones es prosiclica
2000/02 0.03502526 0.01404667
2000/03 0.05138053 0.01608398
2000/04 0.04742709 0.00858121
2001/01 0.0298817 0.00893888
2001/02 0.01493604 0.00356873
2001/03 -0.00961083 0.00065048
2001/04 -0.00877291 -0.00511489
2002/01 -0.00429325 -0.00964636
2002/02 -0.00173883 -0.00709973
2002/03 -0.00557457 -0.00474722
2002/04 -0.01251251 -0.00572708
2003/01 -0.01708083 -0.00792359
2003/02 -0.01907785 -0.00913215
2003/03 -0.01382128 -0.01102334
2003/04 -0.01504949 -0.00918532
2004/01 -0.013828 -0.005628
2004/02 -0.00915136 -0.00202903
2004/03 -0.01212192 -0.00464049
2004/04 -0.00420485 -0.00229279
2005/01 -0.00859982 -0.00351453
2005/02 -0.00986013 -0.00597144
2005/03 -0.01040001 -0.00366488
2005/04 0.0141522 0.00211033
2006/01 0.01590983 0.00836185
2006/02 0.01668637 0.01019784
2006/03 0.01019841 0.0093693
2006/04 0.00484199 0.00913424
2007/01 0.01183316 0.01048696
2007/02 0.02143572 0.01197698
2007/03 0.02808205 0.01220344
2007/04 0.02766152 0.01201869
2008/01 0.03129035 0.01112616
2008/02 0.03486241 0.01288466
2008/03 0.04566538 0.01247238
2008/04 -0.00261827 0.00446623
2009/01 -0.07435097 -0.02430003
2009/02 -0.08998248 -0.03244055
2009/03 -0.04801772 -0.01835521
2009/04 -0.02630999 -0.01050879
2010/01 -0.01304443 -0.01036773
2010/02 -0.00409337 -0.0069539
2010/03 -0.00258197 -0.00503485
2010/04 0.00200196 -0.00357642
2011/01 0.00495429 -0.00286598
2011/02 0.00292307 -0.00324418
2011/03 0.00516228 0.00204131
2011/04 -0.00045372 0.00270779
2012/01 0.00600357 0.00437827
2012/02 0.00234325 0.00480157
2012/03 -0.00095685 0.00299696
2012/04 0.00793254 0.00379521
2013/01 0.00536426 0.00173223
2013/02 0.00238244 -0.00275284
2013/03 -0.00292194 -0.00260934
2013/04 -0.00908121 -0.00300987
2014/01 -0.00284055 -0.00275617
2014/02 0.00316897 0.00048864
2014/03 0.00249619 -0.00132475
2014/04 0.00763074 -4.2552E-06
2015/01 0.00155131 -0.00026396
2015/02 0.00612062 0.00154049
2015/03 0.00834155 0.00448977
2015/04 0.00184067 0.0011783
2016/01 -0.00700193 -0.00070564
2016/02 -0.00375181 -0.00100332
2016/03 -0.00134072 0.00149627
2016/04 0.00043139 0.00481435
2017/01 0.01042846 0.00641407
2017/02 0.00840798 0.00580653
2017/03 0.00668013 0.00234149
2017/04 0.01233045 0.00725846
2018/01 0.0249581 0.01274905
2018/02 0.01857241 0.01054626
2018/03 0.02019647 0.01259792
2018/04 0.03045634 0.01191876
2019/01 0.01612244 0.01256368
2019/02 0.01311106 0.01214562
2019/03 0.01321681 0.01147019
2019/04 0.00571842 0.00808784
2020/01 -0.0064762 0.00295758
2020/02 -0.13344303 -0.0888119
2020/03 -0.06830001 -0.0269684
2020/04 -0.01692867 -0.00916441
2021/01 -0.00371442 -0.00789817
2021/02 -0.0137704 -0.00587052
2021/03 -0.00683215 -0.00876349
2021/04 0.00143976 -0.00529179
2022/01 0.00132421 -0.00011548
2022/02 0.01018327 0.0025429
2022/03 0.01871234 0.00608182
2022/04 0.00690335 0.00722768
2023/01 0.0229053 0.00786865
2023/02 0.02054958 0.01005773
2023/03 0.0049364 0.01282139
Analisis de dispersion
0.04
592979204 x + 3.89544631250099E-140.02
60462712
0
-0.05 0 0.05 0.1
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
-0.1
Columna 2
e datos de aglutina a una media que tiene un apendiente positiva y que es creciente
plicativo del modelo alcanza un 82% de confiabilidad
on entre el PIB e importaciones es 58%
importaciones es prosiclica significa que las importaciones tienden a seguir al PIB a lo largo del tiempo
rgo del tiempo
Referencias
ªDoc. Contreras Alvarez, I. (2023, diciembre). Ciclos económicos. classroom.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/11YYTW3gwOmxEt0t6kcxQLPfx0oLe7XHK
º Reporte de puntos de giro, recesiones y expansiones de 1980 a 2020. (2022, 2 agosto). Com
Economía de México. https://comitefechadocicloseconomicos.mx/wp-content/uploads/2022/08
ºINEGI. (s. f.). Identificación de los ciclos económicos en México: 30 años de evidencia - REAL
REVISTA INTERNACIONAL DE ESTADÍSTICA Y GEOGRAFÍA. REALIDAD, DATOS Y ESPAC
DE ESTADÍSTICA Y GEOGRAFÍA. https://rde.inegi.org.mx/index.php/2011/05/08/identificacion
mexico-30-anos-de-evidencia/
º Rogers, Mark (1998). Handbook of Key Economic Indicators. Segunda edición, Richard Irwin
(2001). “¿Desaceleración, recesión o crisis?”. Economía Teoría y Práctica, Nueva Época, Núm
Metropolitana.
ºhttps://www.inegi.org.mx/app/indicadores/?tm=0
as
lassroom.
Pfx0oLe7XHK
ón. (2019).
ext&pid=S1665-952X2019000200093#:~:text=)%2C
022%20trimestres.
s://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/indicadores/?tm=0
tps://www.inegi.org.mx/app/indicadores/default.aspx?