Gompertz

S 83.135238842683
a -2.021207023105
b 0.2783597078254
t Observed Estimated Squared Error Absolute Percentage Error
2003 1 0.59 0.2744132747545 0.099594981151 53.4892754653454
2004 2 0.23 1.099815302 0.756578659593 378.180566086957
2005 3 0.62 3.145870865 6.380023626656 407.398526612903
2006 4 3.84 6.970482732 9.79992213535 81.5229878125
2007 5 7.46 12.73008888 27.7738368031 70.6446230563003
2008 6 22.46 20.08377052 5.646466541621 10.5798284951024
2009 7 33.14 28.36263345 22.82323115306 14.4157107724804
2010 8 41.18 36.83201724 18.90495408126 10.5584816901408
2011 9 45.38 44.88816466 0.241902001673 1.0838152049361
2012 10 50.5 52.13928276 2.687247967233 3.24610447524753
2013 11 55.02 58.39783933 11.40979853929 6.13929358415121
2014 12 64.66 63.63065593 1.059549214444 1.59193329724713
2015 13 67.1 67.90166369 0.642664671864 1.1947297913562
2016 14 68.06 71.32456226 10.65736674942 4.79659456362032
2017 15 70.64 74.03007223 11.49258972462 4.79908299830125
2018 16 76.13 76.14625445 0.000264207145 0.0213509129121309
2019 17 78.06 77.78839437 0.073769618248 0.34794469638739
2020 18 79.96 79.05504568 0.818942321287 1.13175877938968
2021 19 84.98 80.02763065 24.52596217882 5.82768810308308
2022 20 80.771850994594
2023 21 81.339843328761
2024 22 81.77248224577
2025 23 82.101530234358

MSE 8.19971921978
MAPE 55.6300155999137

Simple Average 44.73736842105

Μερίδιο Αγοράς 0,8-0,82%

 Logistic
S 78.811127
a -3.7825133
b 0.4444641
Estimated Squared ErroAbsolute Percentage Error
2.7023308 4.46194155
4.1353452 15.251721
6.26571 31.8740419
9.3560519 30.4268284
13.68311 38.7270971
19.450938 9.05445207
26.65501 42.0550901
34.956026 38.7378552
43.677297 2.89919761
51.994717 2.234179
59.22603 17.690692
65.024401 0.13278844
69.379481 5.19603422
72.492521 19.6472381
74.639836 15.9986906
76.084852 0.00203833
77.041157 1.03804096
77.66706 5.25757559
78.073747 47.6963313
80.804817
81.358954
81.78353
82.107904
MSE 17.2832544
MAPE
Exponential Smoothing
358.022175254237 #Δ/Υ
1697.97616478261 0.59
910.598394032258 0.338
143.647184479167 0.5354
83.4197040214477 2.84862
13.3974250222618 6.076586
19.568465902233 17.5449758
15.1140704953861 28.46149274
3.7521001101807 37.364447822
2.95983570297029 42.9753343466
7.64454821882951 48.24260030398
0.563565542839465 52.986780091194
3.39714028315948 61.1580340273582
6.51266604466648 65.3174102082074
5.66228244620612 67.2372230624622
0.059303651648488 69.6191669187387
1.3052049064822 74.1767500756216
2.86760927963981 76.8950250226865
8.12691581548599 79.0405075068059
172.87340821009
 90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Observed Gompertz Logistic

Εκθετική εξομάλυνση
90
80
70
60
50 Πραγματικό
Τιμή

40 Πρόβλεψη
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Σημείο δεδομένων
 19

Πραγματικό
Πρόβλεψη

9
 Πληθυσμός Ελλάδας 2022 10,603,810
Μερίδιο Αγοράς 0.80%
Χρήστες 84830.48

Monthly Revenue
Subscription Plan
Sales 59381
Price 70 € Monthly Revenue
Revenue 4,156,670 € 4,156,670 €

One-time revenue
Stand Alone Purchases Installation Fees
Sales 25449 84830
Price 500 € 200 € Total Revenue
Revenue 12,724,500 € 16,966,000 € 29,690,500 €

Υποθέτουμε ότι το 70% των χρηστών θα διαλέξει το subscription plan και το υπόλοιπο 30% θα κάνει κάποιο

Average Yearly Income for the next 3 years

59,776,873 €

NPV
150,951.70 € * 10% discount rate

Initial Investment Year 1 Year 2

Cash Flows -30,000,000 € 16,746,745 € 18,421,419 €

IRR
37%

DDB
3,703.70 €
 Cost

Total Employees
50

Cost

ιπο 30% θα κάνει κάποιο stand alone purchase.

Average Yearly Net Profit for the next 3 years

50,240,235 €

Year 3
20,263,561 € * 10% growth rate
Monthly Expenses
Permits and Licenses Taxes Insurance Salaries
20 € 747,211 € 200 € 40,000 €

Υποθέτουμε ότι οι φόροι είναι το 15% του ετήσιου μεικτού εισοδήματο

One-Time Expenses
Office Equipment Total
50,000 € 50,000 €

Average Yearly Expenses for the next 3 years

9,536,639 €
 Supplies and Office Expenses Marketing Bills Miscellaneous Rent
150 € 400 € 200 € 150 € 5,000 €

του ετήσιου μεικτού εισοδήματος.

Total
793,331 €