Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 592

,

. .



,


2 ,

2010
1

327
66.4
56

:
. .
. .

. .

. . . . . (. 30), . . . . . (. 11),
. . . . . (. 4), . . . . . (. 1, 2, 7, 12, 18, 19),
. . . . . (. 16), . . . . . (. 14),
. . . . . (. 17), . . . . . (. 21),
. . . . . (. 29), . . . . . (. 27),
. . . . . (. 25), . . . . . (. 9),
. . (. 22), . . . . . (. 23),
. . . . . (. 24), . . . . . (. 28),
. . . . . (. 3, 15, 26), . . . . . (. 13),
. . . . . (. 5, 6), . . . . .
. . . . . (. 8), . . . . . (. 10, 20)
56

: / . . . . 
. 2 ., . . .: , 2010. 592 .
ISBN 9785756705805
, ,

.
2000 . 
. 
XXI , , 
,
, , , 
.
, , ,
, , , 
.

327
66.4

ISBN 9785756705805

1 . 
,
2009
2 . ,
2010


............................................................................................ 7
I

1. .................................................. 15
(16). 
(18).
(24). (28)
2.
.................................... 40
(40).
(43).
(48).
(51).
(54).
(56). (60)
3. .................... 64
(64). 
1990 (68). 
(73)
4.
.............................................................................. 81
,
(81).
(84).
(91).
5. c
............................................................................... 100

(100). 
(106).
(110). (113). 
(118)
6. ...... 122

(122). (129).
(139).
(146)
7. .... 153
(153). 
(155). 
(159). (162)
3

8.
........................................................................... 167

(167). (172).
(174)
9. .......................... 182
(182).
(184). 
(187).
(191). (193). 
(196)
10. /
........................................................................ 202

(203).
(205).
(208).
11. ................. 215

(215).
(221). (226)
II

12.
................................................................. 239
2000 (239).
(241).
(244). 
 (248).
(251)
13. ............................................. 259
2000 (259).
(268).
(270).  
(273).
14. ................. 279
(279).
(282).
(286)
15.
................................................................................... 293
(294).
(298).
4

(302).
(305).
(309)
16. .................................... 317
(317). 
(319). 
(321).
(324)
III

17. /
............................................................................... 333

(333). (341).
(345)
18. ..................................... 356

(356). (361).
(363).
(367)
19. /
........................................................................ 370

(371). 
(375). 
(378)
20. ........................ 385
(385).
(390). (392)
21. .................................. 400
 (400).
(404). 
(407)
22.
............................................................ 415
(417).
(421)
23. ....................................... 438
(439).
(445).
(448)
5

IV
, ,
24. ....................... 459
(460). 

(466). (471)
25. /
....................................................................... 477

(477). 
(483).
(487)
26. 491
(491). 
(495).
(499). (504)
27. ....................... 514
(515).
(521). 
(524). 
(529)
V

28.
........................................................................... 537
(538). 
(542).
(548)
29. .......................... 554

(554).
(557). (560).
(564)
30. .... 569

(571).
(577).

(583)
................................................................... 589

............................................................................ 591


, 
.
. 


.
: , 
, 
, ,
, , , 

.

1991 .

 , 
.

. . ( . . ,
. . , 
).


(. . , . . ).

,  .
, 
,
, 
, 
.
 ,
7


(. . , . . , . . ), 
(. . ),
(. . ) .
10 
,
 
. , 
 
.

, 
. . 
, 

, . ,
, , 
. , 
.

, 
, , 
,
.

, , , , 
. 

, 
.

. 


.
, 


.
8

, 
, . . 
(., 2003, 2007) 

. . . . (., 2009).
. 
 ,
, .
, 
, 
. 
, , , 
, ,
.
,
,
, 
.
.

. 
. 
, , , 
,

.

. 
15 . 

, ,
, .
, , .
, 
. 
( ) 
, .
, , , ,
,
9

. ,
, ,
, . ,

. ,

, 
. 
, 

.
, , ,
. ,
, 
. , 
,
.
, 
,
. 
,
,
, 
. 

, 


.
, 
,
,
, , 
, , ,
. 


,
. 
10

, 
. , ,
, , .

 
. 
( , , 
).
.

.

, , , 

, ,
.
. 
,


.
.
.
, ,
, ,
,
.
, 

(, ) 
(,
).
, 
,
. (
) 
.
, , 
. ,
11

,

, , .


.

25 2010 .

12

1.
2.

3.
4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.
10. -

11.

13

14


. ,

, 
. ,
, , , 
 ,
, , 
. , 

. 2002
1.
, 

. 
,

.

. 

,
.


( ) .
, 
 
, 
, 
15

I.

, . 
, 
.
, 

, 
. ,
. ,

,  

, 
 .


1990 


 .
, 

. . . 
. 
, 
, .

1991 
,
(  ) 
, , .
, , 
. 

.
, ,

1991 .
. 

, , 
16

1.

( ) ,
 ,
( ) 
 2.
. 
. . . 


3.
,  
() ,
 

 .
,

. ()

, 
, 
, .
, , 
1990 . 

4. 

. 
.
.
, . 

, 

. 
 .
()

. . .
, 

. 
17

I.

.
, 
, 
.

.
, 
, ,
.

. 
, , ,
.

, ,

. 
, 
.
1990 
(1993), 

.

, 
. 
.
,
. 
,
. 
.
. 
. 
:

(),

18

1.

, 
.
, 
, ,
: 
. , ,
, , 
2001 
. 
. , . , . 5.
,
. ,
. :
, , , 
, ( , 
) , 
.
1990
,
6. . 

(19932000):
.

(world
civil society)7 (world governance)8. 
,
. 
.
9, 

, 10.

11.
, 

. 

12.


19

I.

.
. 
:
,
.
.

. ,
,
, 1990 
.

,
 
, 2000
.

.
, 

.
, , , 
, 
.
, 
.
, 
. 
,
, 
. 
,
(. , . , . 
, . ).
.

: 
13, 


,  
20

1.


(, , ),
14, 
 
.
15 ,
( )
( ) ,
( 
), 
, 
( )
( ). ,
. 1990 ,
2000 
, 

16.

. 
(. . 2).
, .
, ,
. 
,
, , , 
, .
. 
. 
, :
. , . ,

, 
.
1990 
, .
. ,  
. 
, 
, 
21

I.


. ,
.
,


. 
XXI
.
1990
: , , ,
.

.

.

: 11 2001
, , 
.

, 
, , 
.
 
: . , 
,
. ,

17, 
. , 
. , ,
, , 
. , ,
18.

,
( 
. . ,
19) .
22

1.

 
. 
, . 
(. , . , . .20).
,
. 
, ,

,
, 
21. 
,
, 



22.
, 
2000 , , 
 
.

 
. 
,

.
1990 
,  . , 
. , ,
, 
.
.


,  
.  
, 
. , 

23.
23

I.

, 

1990 ,

.
 , 

,

. 1990 2000
.
, 
,  
.
(
) ()

.



,
.  , .
(
19971998 ), ,
, . 

.

. 1990
,
.

. 
, 
. ,

, . , 

.
24

1.


.

, 
, .

. 
. 
, 
, .

, 
. (. . 
, . . , . . , . . , . . ,
. . ), 
(. . , . . , . . , . . ),
(. . ,
. . , . . , . . , . . ).
 ,
, ,
, ,
.


.
 
. , , 

. .  , 
(
) ,
. 24.


( ) , 
, , .
 
, , 

 , 
4080 .
25

I.


, 

. , 

. ,

,
25.

, ,
, 
. 1990
.

. . , . . , . . 
, . . , . . , . . 26.

, ,
.
, ,

, 
. , 
. 


(. . , . . , . . , . . ,
. . , . . , . . , . . .)27.

,
, 
.

. , 
. ,

28.
.

,
26

1.

.
, , .

, 
,
, ,
.
, , , .
 
,
, 
, 
. 

() , , . 
 ,
29.

,
,

. ,

,

, 
.
.
 

. ,

, 
, , 
, , 30 .
, 
. , 
, 
60 , 
80
31.
27

I.


,

, , 
.
, ,

50 
.
,
.
,
.


.

, 
, ,
. 
. 

. 
.
,
. 
32, .


, 

 , 
. ,

, , 
.
, 
.

, 
28

1.


, , 
.

, 
.
1. . .
, 
, 
(),
( ). 
. , 
, 
: 
.
, . 
, 


. 
, 

,
() (
).
, 
, 
,


1990 .


. , , ,
: 

( ) 1970 , 
, 1990 ,
.

 ( ), 
29

I.



. 
.
.
2. . . 
, 

, ,
( , 
, ). , ,
,
, ,
.
, ,

. ,
, , 
.


, 
, 
, 
,
, ( ) 
, , ,

.

. 
.


, 
. ,
, , ,
.

1996 . 
30

1.

, ,
.

. , 
,
,
,
.
. 50
80 .

,
, ,
. 1990 

 .
3. . . , 
.
, . . 
, 
 , ,
. 
, 
, . 

.

 
.
, ,
, ,
, 
.

, ,
, , , 
.
.
4. . . 
, 
. 
31

I.

,
. 

,
, , 
.
,
, 

. ,
()
, (). 
, 
, , .

.
60  . 


. , 

, 
, , 
, 
. , 
(
) 
, , ,
, ..

1990 , , 

, , 
, , 
( 
).


1990 , 
.
, 
32

1.


, . 
, , 
.
, , ,
, ,

, .
, ,

, .
1990 
: 
,
,
, .
1990 , , 
, ,

. , 
,
1990 . 
, 
33.
1992 
 
 
,

(
),
. ,

(
 ), , 
.
, 
, 
. 
,
33

I.
) . 
(
)

) . 

. 1.
() ()

1990 
. .

. , ,
. . 

1993 .
5. . . , 


.


, 

.



. ,

34

1.


.
,
, , , 
. , 
, , 
?
. .
.


. ,
1990 , 2000 
.  2003
.
. 
, 
. ,
,
, , 
.
,

, 

, ( ) 
.
. . :
, 
.
(, 
) .
, 
, 
.
. , 
.
 
 
. ,
, .
35

I.


, .
( 15 ) 
.
, 

, .
, 

,
 .
7. . . 

,
.

, 

, .
1




,


(Hard security)


(Soft Security)


(Homeland
Security) 


(, ,
)


,

( 
,
, )




( )

36

1.

. 1






(Comparative Human
Rights Law)

. 
, , , ,
,
, 
.



. 
.

1
. . . ., 2003. 
, 
. . (., 2002).
2
. . : , ,
// : . ., 1997. . 1828.
3
., . :
? // . 2003. 3.
4
. . 
Pro et ontra (2000. 1),
, .
5
Krasner S. Sovereignty. Organized Hypocrisy. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999;
Hobson J. The State and International Relations. Cambridge New York: Cambridge University
Press, 2001; The New Agenda for International Relations / S. Lawson (ed). Malden, MA: Poli
ty, 2002.

37

6

, 
, . Beyond Westphalia. A State Sovereignty
and International Intervention (G. Lyons and M. Mastanduno (eds). Baltimore London: Johns
Hopkins University Press, 1995).
7
The Rise of Neoliberalism and Institutional Analysis / J. Campbell and O. Pedersen (eds).
Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001.
8
Shaw M. Theory of Global State. Globalization as an Unfinished Revolution. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press, 2000.
9
Governance in a Globalizing World / J. Nye and J. Donnahue (eds). Washington: Brook
ings Institution Press, 2000; Irie A. Global Community. The Role of International Organizations
in the Making of the Contemporary World. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2002.
10
Globalization and Human Rights / A. Brysk (ed). Berkeley: [..], 2002.
11
Faulks K. Political Sociology. Critical Introduction. New York.: New York University
Press, 1999.
12
International Order and the Future of World Politics / T. V. Paul and J. Hall (eds). Cam
bridge New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999.
13
. . 
. .: . . (
). ., 1999, . ., . ., . . 
// . 1996. 5. 
. . . .: . . ? // . 2001. 4. . 69;
: // . 2001. 5. . 2324.
14
Governance in a Globalizing World.
15
2000 .
( ) ,
, , . 
. ., : James H. The End of Globalization.
Lessons from the Great Depression. Cambridge: The Harvard University Press, 2001.
16
Camerton F. US Foreign Policy after the Cold War. Global Hegemon or Reluctant Sheriff.
London New York: Routhledge, 2002.
17
Lawson S. International Relations. Cambridge: Polity, 2003.
18
Art R. A Grand Strategy for America. Ithaca London: Cornell University Press, 2003.
.: . ., . ., . .
. ., 2002. . 253265.
19
Talmon J. L. The Origins of Totalitarian Democracy. London: Secker and Wartburb, 1955.
20
Brown S. The Illusion of Control. Force and Foreign Policy in the TwentyFirst Century.
Washington: The Brookings Institution Press, 2003; Falk R. The Great Terror War. New York:
The Olive Branch Press, 2003.
21
C. : Daalder I. and Lindsay J. America Unbound. The Bush Revolution in Foreign
Policy. Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 2003.
22
Byman D. and Waxman M. The Dynamics of Coercion. American Foreign Policy and the
Limits of Military Might. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002.
23
Donnelly J. Realism and International Relations. Cambridge New York: Cambridge
University Press, 2003; Buzan B., Jihnes C. and Little R. The Logic of Anarchy. Neorealism to
Structural Realism. New York: Columbia University Press, 1993.
24
. . ., 2000; . .
., 1999.  
( , 
, , ),
2009 .
25
. . .
(16482000). ., 2001; . . 
: . . . 1. , 2001.

38

26
. . (19451975). ., 2004; 
(19451985). / .
. . . . ., 1995; : , /
. . . . . ., 1995; .. //
. 1997. 6; / .
. . . , . . , . . . ., 1999; . ., . .,
. . 
(16481945). ., 2000.
27
.: : 4 . 19182003:
. .:  ,
20002004.
28
. . . .
29
. . : 
//  . 1995. 5. . 5765.
30
Networks and Netwars / H. Arquilla and D. Ronfeld (eds). Santa Monica: Rand, 2001.
31
, /
. . . . . .: , 1984.
32
Ikenberry J. After Victory. Institutions, Strategic Restraints and the Rebuilding of Order
After Major Wars. Pricenton, 2001.
33
e .: . // 
. 2003. 1.

39




1991 .
, 
, 
, 1990 
.
, . 
( ) 
( ). 
,
. 
.
.


1970 
, , 
(international system),
, , 
(international society). 
, , 
, 
,
,
1.
(, ), 
(world international
40

2. ...

society),  ,
.

, 
. 
, . 
.
, 19601980 . 1990

,

, ,
. 
, 
, ,
2.
,
1977 ,
, ,
. ,

.
,
. 
,

, 
. 
, () ,

.

. 

,  
, .
.
, , 
, 
. , 

41

I.

, .

.

, .
3.
, 
.
,
,
, . 
, ,
. , ,
; 
, 
.
: ( ) ( ,
, ).
,
, 
. 
, , ,
. 
: 
, , ,
4.

1970 
(1973), ,
(19731974) .

: , 
, 
, .
(1986) ,
, , 
. , 
 . 

, 
, 
42

2. ...


, XX .
, 
, 

. 

. , , 
, 
.

, .



. ,
1993 
,  
, .
1997

, 
. 5
.




. 
, 6. 

:
1)
( 
7);
2) ,
, ,
;
3) , , 
;
43

I.

4) , , 
8;
5)
;
6) 
, 
, , 
, ;
7) 
,
, , , 
, ,
;
8)
,
,
.

 

, ,
.


 ,
, 
 ,
.
.

() ().
,
, , ,
, .
,
,

 .
, ,
, , 
.
44

2. ...

, 
, , 
, . 
, , 
, .
 
:
, 
,
.

,


. ,

. 
. 
1980 , .

.

. , .
.

. 
, 19941996 , 

.
, 1998
.,
.
1990
. 
, 
.
19981999
, 
. 19801990 

, 
45

I.

. (
), 
, ,
.
( ) 
, , 

(, , , , 
), , (
 ,  
,  )9.
,
XIX 
, XX
, 
. 
, 
, :
.

. 
, 10.


. 
, ,
, , 
.
, ,
. 
,
, , 

.


. , 
. , 
, .
,
. ,
46

2. ...

, 
,
. 

1990 .
, 
, 
,
. , 
, 
. 


, 
.
. 
, , , 

, . , 

, . ,
(
) ,
. 
, , . 
, , ,
, 
.
 
. 
. 
. 
, ,
( ,
). 
, 
, , , ?

, 
, . 
(,
47

I.

, , , , , , 
),
(, , , ),
 (). , 

. ,

, .


2000

. 

, 
.

, . 
, 

, ?
, () 
() 
, 

. , 
, ,

.
,
, .
, 
, , , 
, . 
( ),
(). , 
, ,
, .
,
. 
48

2. ...


. .
, , 
, , , 
, (
). 
.
, 
. . 

.
11. 
,
. 
,
, 
, 
.


.
: 1)
, ; 2) ,
; 3) 
,
; 4) 

.
,
.
, 
, /
,
.
, ,
.
, ,
, 
. 
, ,
.
49

I.

, , , ,
.

, 
, .

, 
. . 
. 
.

( ).
. 

: , , 
.
.

, . 
, . ,
, 
. ,

.
. 
, , 
. ,  
, .

. ,
, ,
. 
,
.

:
, ,
, .
. 
, 
 ,
50

2. ...


. 
, , ,
.

.
. 
. 
. , 
; , . 
.
, 
. . 
. 

,
 . 
.

.
, , 
, , 
.
. 
. , , 
. , 
, , 
.
( )
.
,

, , , 
.



, 
, , , 
, .
51

I.

, 
, , 

, .

. ,
: ,
, .

. 
, 
.

,
. 

, . 
, 
, , ,
,
. 
. , ,
, .
, , ,
. 
, 
. 

.
, .

, .
,
, ,
.

.
.

,

52

2. ...

. 
, 
 ( , , , 
, ,
).
XVIII 

, 
, ,
. , 
, ,
, 
.
, ,
,
. 
,
(, ).

, 

,
.

. ,

, . 1990 
, 

. , 
,  

, , , 
.

, 
: 
( ) 
( , ), ( , ).
.

53

I.

() 
, , 
,
.


. 
.


( ).

. 
. 
,
, 
. 
, ,
, 
, .






.
, ,
. 
. 
, 
, 
.

. , 
. 
.

. 
, , , 
54

2. ...

. ,
, ,
 . 

, . 
, 
.
, ,
( ), 
,
. , 
,

. , ,

(
; , ,
, 
). ,
, 
, 
.

, . 
, .

,
? 
. , 
,  credo. 
 ,
. , 

1990 .
, 
.
,
,
, . 
, ,
 .
55

I.

 ,
, 
.


(
, ). 
, (
) ,

.
,
, 
, 
. 
. 
:
. 
 . ,

, 
. 

.


, 

, . 1990

, , , 
12. 2000
. . 
(unilateralism). 
, .
, 

,

. 1993 , 

56

2. ...

, 
.

,   

. ( 19911997 )
,
. 
. , ,
.
, 
. , :
. 
,
.
. 2000
, , 

. ( 
. 29 2002 ), 
( .  1
2002 ) ( .
11 2004 )
. , 
 ,
, 
.
(regime change) 
, 

, 
.
, 20002004 
.

 (rogue
states). , , ,
( ). 
, 
. 
57

I.


, .
1993
,
2003

, .
.

. 2003

, , 
. , 
, 
, .
,

, 2000 .

, 
. , , 
, .

. 
.
, .
( ,
) , 


.

. 2003 , 
,

, 1995 
13.


, 1992
58

2. ...

(authoritarian pluralism) 
,
14.

. , , 


, . , 
, 
, , 
. 
, ,
, , , .
, 
(
), (
, 
).

, 
( ) .
, 
. 
,
. 

, , 
, .

.
,

, ,
, 
.
,

, 


.
59

I.



(
), 2000 , ,

. 

, .


. , 
. 1991 
 , 
.
. , .

( 2000
). , ,
, .
, 
. 
, 1998 
, 
. , 

.
,
,
19451991 . 
, , 
, .

. 2000 .
 
. ,
, .
, . 

2009 
: 
60

2. ...

,
.

, .
. , 
.

, . 
. 
, .
, 1996 
. 
 (
).
.
2008 
,

. 2008
1983

.
, 
. 1990

(laissezfaire),
1648
, 
.

, . ,

. 
,
, .
, . 

. 
, . 
, 
, . , 
61

I.

,
, .

. 
,
.

( ) . 
.
,
. 
.
. 
,
. 
,
.

. 
, ,
, 
.
.


. 
, 
, , . 
.

.


. , 
. ,
, 
.
,

.
62

Bull H. The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics. New York: Columbia
University Press, 1995. Ch. 1, 2. P. 350, 36, 39.
2

(., ,
3 1997 ).
(.: . . 
: 
. .: , 1999). , , ,
. 
.
3
. . ? // . . . . 6.
4

(.: . : . . //
. .: , 1980. . 1. . 393)
, .
5
,
.
6

.

.
7
Sassen S. Losing Control? Sovereignty in the Age of Globalization. New York: Columbia
University Press, 1996. P. 3133.
8
Julius D. Globalization and Stakeholder Conflict: a Corporate Perspective // Intern. Affairs.
1997. 3. P. 453455.
9
. . ? // . 1999. 5.
10
Lauterpacht E. Sovereignty Myth or Reality? // Intern. Affairs. 1997. 1. P. 137139.
11
,
. . 
(. 1992. 3). .: : 
. . .: , 1997 (Lijphart . Democracy
in Plural Societies. A Comparative Exploration. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1977).
12
.. . 
, , , 
, , , 
(.: Guehenno J. M. Globalization and the
International System // Journal of Democracy. 1996. 4. P. 30).
13
Zakaria F. The Future of Freedom. Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad. New York.;
London: W. W. Norton and Company, 2003; Bell D., Brown D., Jayasuriya K. Toward Illiberal
Democracy in Pacific Asia. London: MacMillan, 1995.
14
... , 
, . 
, , 

, . ,
, , 
, .
. . . 10 1992 .

63


.
XVIII
.

.
.
XXI .
1. 


.
(failed states) 
.

.


, 
() (),
. .
. ,

.

2.
(minimalist conception). 
( , , , 
64

3.

) ,

3. 
: , 
, .

.
(aggregative). 
( , , , 
)
4.
, 
.
.
(deliberative) ,

. ( , 
, , ) ,

5. 
. 
, 
.

6.
(participatory
democracy) .

, 
7. 
( , , )

8.

. (
, , ) ,
, ( 
) (
)9.
:
.
65

I.


, . , 
, 

.
:
, 
;

;


;
, , 
;
,
;
: 
, ;
.
,
.

XVII . 

,
, 
.
.
, 10.
:
, , , , , . XIX
, 
. ,

.
, .
XX 
, 
. 
66

3.

, 
11.

XIX (),
12. 19291933 
. 

13.
,  

.
.
, 

. , 

, , /,
.

.

.  
,
.
.

.
. ( 
)  
. 
.

. 1940 , 
. 

,
.

 14.
1970

67

I.

.
1980
, 
 .
.

, ,
, 15.
. 


. , , 

16.

. 1980 

. (global
governance), 
 . 

.

1990-

1991 XIX

.

 .


.

17. 1970 

. 
: ,
. 
.
68

3.


.
1970 
18. 
, 
. :

19.
. 1985 .
, 1980 , 
. 
1980 ,

. 1989 

. , 
,
, ,

. , , 
.

.
1990
(19932000) 
20. 21 1993


. 
911 1994 
.
.
14 1993
 .

, , 
. 

. 16 1997

.
69

I.

. 

1994 . 

 .
,
, .
, 2004 
.
. 
, 


() (). 
.

21 (
).
2004 
.
, ,
2008 . 

. 
, 

. 
 . 


.

. 

. 
, (1985)

. , 
, 
,
. 
70

3.

()

. . 
. ,
, 
.
. 

. (1994),
(1998) (2002)
. 2000 
(, , )  (
, , , , ) . 

.

,  
. 2005 
.
. 

.

. 1990
. .
1991
, . 17 1992 
. . .  
 . 
,
(, ,
, ). 
:
.
. .
(1993) (1996).
. . 
.


. 
71

I.

1 (1991)
. 1995
,
(,
)
.
, 
22.

, , 
. 
2
(1995) 3 (1997; 2000)

.
XXI
.
(2000), (2003), (2004), 
(2005) (2005). 

, 
. , 

. , 

/ . 
, 
.
.
1990
. 
, 
. 

. ,


23.
2000

.
72

3.


.

 24.
, , ,
. XXI
.

. 
1945 , 
, .
. 1946
,
 (), 
, , 
. 
.
1949 , 
.
. 1947


1889 , . 
, 
,
.
.
 
. 
1990 
, 
, ,

 .
1947 
.  1951
1960
73

I.

. 
.

. 1940 
.
1961
. 1973 

. 

. 1980
.
(19891994) 
: 1994 ,
.
.
1965 
, , 
.
. 

1978 , 

. 1979 
.
, 
1980 
 .

25.
. 1989

. 1994

1991  . 


. 
, 
.
74

3.

. 
1994 1165
.
, 
,
,
. , 

.

.
. 1989

, 
.
1996 
() , 
 .
1997 .
19982003 ,
. 
2005  
. 
.
.
.
. 1997 
, 
. 1999 ,
.
2000
. 
.

. 
(1995) (1999)
. 
. 1990
,
2000 .

75

I.

. 
, ,
.
, ,
.
. 2001

 . 12 2001
. 

,
. 20012002 
. 2003 
. 

.

.
2325 1999 

. , 
.
, 
, . 

 (1997) 
(2001).
11 2001

. 
,
. 2002 
.  
, 
(). 
.
.
2001
.
2001 ()
.
76

3.

.
2004 , 

. 
, 2003 
. 2006
, 
. 
.
2002 . 
.

. 
, 


.

 . 

 .
2005
2006 .
17 2006 
 .

20082009 .

. , 
.

. 
,
. 

. 
, 
,
.
2007 , 
.
77

I.


.
.

,
. 2002 2008 , 
,  .  

. 2008

. . 
.


. XXI

.

.

. 

, , 
26. 
( 
), 
, ,
27.

. 
.
. 

. 
. , , .

: 
.

78


1
.: . . . .: , 2005;
. . . .: , 2002; Fukuyama F.
America at the Crossroads. Democracy, Power and the Neoconcervative Legacy. New Haven:
London: Yale University Press, 2006.
2
.: . 
/ . . . . . , . . . .: 
, 2006; ., . 
/ . . .: , 2003; Blattberg Ch. From Pluralist to Patriotic
Politics: Putting Practice First. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2000.
3
.: Schumpeter J. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. New York: Allen$Unwin, 1976;
Przeworski A. Minimalist Conception of Democracy: A Defense // Democracys Values / Ed. by
Yan Shapiro and Casiano HackerCordon. Cambrdge: Cambridge University Press, 1999; Idem.
Capitalism and Social Democracy. Cambridge: Cambrige University Press, 1986.
4
Parsons T. The System of Modern Societies. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersy: PrenticeHall,
1971; Almond G., Verba S. The Civic Culture. Boston: Little Brown, 1965.
5
.: Hubermas J. Communication and the Evolution of Society. Boston: Beacon Press,
1979; Gutman A., Tompson D. Democracy and Disagreement. Why Moral Conflict Cannot Be
Avoided in Politics, and What Should Be Done about It. Cambridge (Mass.): The Balknap Press
of Harvard University Press, 1996.
6
Fishkin J. The voice of the people: Public opinion and democracy. New Haven: Yale
University Press, 1995.
7

,
. . , 
. , , 
. , 
, , , . ( 
// . 2009. 26 . . 8.) . ,
( )
: , .
.
8
Arendt H. On Revolution. New York: Penguin, 1963; Shmitter Ph. Still the Century of
Corporativism? // Review of Politics. 1974. Vol. 36. No 1. P. 85131; . 
. .: , , 1992.
9
.: De Ruggiero G. The History of European Liberalism. Boston Beacon Press, 1959;
. . (17621914). ., 1995.
10
., . . . . 7.
11
, 

, , 
, .
, , .. ,
, , ..
, 
, ,
,
( . . .: , 1994. . 289).
12
.: . . . . ., 1992. . 1216.
13
.: Laski H. J. Liberty in the Modern State. England: Penguin Books, 1937.
14
.: Rawls J. A Theory of Justice. Cambridge:
Harvard University Press, 1971.

79

15
., . / . .
.: , 2003. . 7.
16

. ,
. ,

. 

. 

. 
. .: Hubermas J. The Structural
Transformation of the Public Sphere. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1989.
17
.: . // . 2003. 2.
. 4259; . . // 
. 2004. 2. . 6475.
18
C.: Arato A. Civil Society against the State: Poland 19801981 // Telos. No 47. (Spring
1981). P. 2347; Michnik A. A New Evolutionism // Idem. Letters from Prison and Other Essays.
Berkley: University of California Press, 1985. P. 89158.
19
C.: Dworkin R. Talking Rights Seriously. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1977.
20
Rosen B. R., Ross A. L. Competing Vision for U.S. Grand Strategy // International Security.
Vol. 21. No 3. (Winter 1996 / 97). P. 553.
21
, 
( 
, , ) 
, ; , 
, ..).
. .
22
Garthoff R. L. The Great Transition: American Soviet Relations and the End of the Cold
War. Washington: Brookings, 1994.
23
Beyond Preemption: Force and Legitimacy in a Changing World / Ivo H. Daalder (ed.).
Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2007.
24
Building a New Global Order: Emerging Trends in International Security / Ed. by D. Dewitt,
D. Haglund, J. Kirton. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994.
25
The New American Interventionism: Lessons from Successes and Failures: Essays from
Political Science Quarterly / Ed. by D. J. Caraley. Washington: Columbia University Press, 1999;
Mayall J. The New Interventionism, 19911994: United Nations Experience in Cambodia, Former
Yugoslavia and Somalia. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.
26
C: Fergusson N. Hegemony of Empire? // Foreign Affairs. 2003. Vol. 82. No 4; Idem.
Colossus: The Price of Americas Empire. New York, 2004; Run C. C. The Ideology of American
Empire // Orbis. 2003. Vol. 47. No 3.
27
C.: The Imperial Teanse. Prospects and Problems of American Empire. Chicago, 2003;
Boot M. American Imperialism? No Need to Run Away from Label // USA Today. 2003. May 6.
. : . . // . 2007.
19 . [ ]. : www.russ.ru.

80




. 
,
, ( 
) , , 
( ). 


. 
, 
.

, 1.
,
, 

, ,
, , 
.

,

, 
, 2 . 
() 

, ,
81

I.

ad hominem,
.
. 

. , 
,
, 

. 
.

, 
.

, ,
, 
. 
, , ,
, 
, , 
, , 
, 
.
, ,
;

, 
 . , 
, 
, 
.
(, , ), 
,
( ), 
, 
.
, 
,  .


. 
82

4.

,
, 
, 3.


I . ,
, 
1920 ,
.

, , 
, . 
, 
, , ,
. 

, (
.) .
(

. . ), . 
(
) ,
. 
.

.
!
, 
, .



, , 
4. 
,

5.
, Homo Sapiens
Homo Politicus,
.
83

I.

,
. 
, 
, , ,  .
, 
, ,
, . , 
,
, .



.

19601970
, 
 
. 
, , 
6.

, . , 
(1) 
7, (2)

(3) 
8. 
.
!
, 

,
.  

.


. 
84

4.

,
.
,
,
.
, , 
,
, 

. , , 
, , , 
 ,
:
(
) , 
, , , , 9.
 
, 10.
. 
, , ,
, 
.
, ?
 : .
, ,
, , ...
, ,
( ) ,
,
.
, : , , 
, , , , ,
, , , . 
, , 
, . 
, , . 
.
,
, 
.
85

I.


( ) ,
.
,
, , , ,
. 


, , 
, , 
.

. 
, ,
.

. , 

, .
, 
. , 
, 
. , ,

, , ,

.

. ,

. ,

.


. , 
. 
1980 , 
, 
,
11.
86

4.

, . 
.

, ,
. , .

, 
.
.

.
. 
. 
,
, .

, , 

, 
, 
. , ,
 ,
 . .
:
,
;
;
;
;
.
,
.
, , 
12.
,

 , . 
. , ,
, 
 , 
87

I.

, 
, 
.
(). 

. ,
 , 
.
 : , 
, , , , 
. 
.

, 
.
, ,
status quo
, .
, , 
. ,
,
.

,
. ,
, ?

, , ? 
, ?

?
 
, 
;  .  
, .
1941 , 
. : 
,
 . 

88

4.

,
.

. 13.
,
, 
,
14. , ,
. ,

, . 
, 
 
,
, 15.
,
, 
. 
, 
16.

,
. , 
. , 
,
, 
. . ,
. 

, , I ,
,
.
, 
, .
, , . 
. 
. . . 
. 
,
, .
89

I.


17 
. .
, .
, 
,
, 
18.


.
. 
, , ,


. , 
, , 
.

, , 
, 

. , (
. ) 
, , , , 
 , 
?
: Homo
homini lupus est 19.

, (
) .
, . 
, ( . ), ,
, 
.

. ,

, .
90

4.

,
.
, 

. 
, , 
?



?



. ,
,
()

. . 


, ,
.

. ,
.


.
, 
. .


.
,
. 
, (), ,

. , , .

91

I.

, , 
.
, ,
().
,
, , 
. 

? , 

.

. , : 1990 
, 
.
. 

I , ,
. ,
.
,

. ,
, ,

: , 
,
. ,
( ),
, . 
.

. . 
.
:  ( , 
), 
, . , ,
, .


92

4.

. , ,
, , , 
, 
. , 80 90%

, .
, 
. , 
,
. 
, 
,
20.
.

.
: , , , 
.. ,
21, 
.

. 

. ,
,  
, , . 
.

, ,
, , 
, .
. 
,

, .

,
. , ,
, . ,
, ,
93

I.

.
, , 
, , 
.

. ()
() , 

.
. 
, ,
: , 
, , .
, 
; , ,
22.
, 
,
( ) , . 
, 
, , . 
. 2005
,
,
, . 
. 

, 
,
.
, 
. 
. , 
,
.

, 
. 
, :
(1) ; (2) 
94

4.

( ) ;
(3) ,
, 
.

, 
Homo Sapiens .


. 
,
;
, ( . 
) , ,
.

, 

. , 
23 , 

(
).

. 
. , 
. :
;
, 
, ,
;
, 
;

;
, ,
;

;
24.
95

I.


, , , ,
, .
,
( )
. , 
, , 
. 
.
25 , 

2003 . : , 
,
, 
, .
: . 

. 
, 
, . , 
, 
, , .

,
? 

, 
.
,
, 
. 
, , 
,
. 
, 

, , ,
, ,
.

, 
96

4.



. 
, . 
,
.

1
., : . . ., 2000; . .
., 2003; . . ., 2003; Wallerstein I. The Decline of American Power.
New York; London, 2003.
2
Anthropology // International Encyclopedia of Social Sciences. Vol. 12. P. 320.
3
.: . . // . . .: 8 . .,
1994. . 7. . 8, 13, 15, 24, 35, 39, 54. , 
, 
,
.
, 
. 
, :
, 
.
VIII ... ( : 
// GarmischPartenkirchen. 2001. . 2, 6).
4
. . . ., 1996. . 178.
5
e.
6
Mandel R. Psychological Approaches to International Relations // Political Psychology /
M. Hermann (ed.). San Francisco, London, 1986. P. 251.
7
, 
.
8
Mandel R. Op. cit. P. 251.
9
, 
, 
. 
( ) ,
... 
, ... (
. ., 1998. . 139). , 
, 

,
( 
, ..) ( : 2 .
., 1999. . 1. . 681). (international relations)
, ,
,
1 (: / .
. . ., 2001. . 333). .

97

10

,
, , , , , 

(: . . 333).
11
, , . 
,
, , , ( 
). . , ,
. , , 
. 
, , , , 
. 1989 
, , .
, 
1989 ,
( . . ., 1999. . 238).
12
, 

. , , 
: . . : 
. ., 1999; . .
. ., 2001; . :
. ., 1993; . : . ., 1993; . :
. ., 1993; . . .,
1994; . . ., 2005.
13
. . ., 2004. . 5.
14
. . 
// : / . . .. 
. ., 1999. . 434. , , 
, 
,
, .
15
. . 435. ,
. . 
 ,
. , 
, ,
, .
16
.
17
.: Lasswell H. Psychopathology and Politics. Chicago and London, 1977; .
. ., 1996.
18
, , , , 

. 
, , 
. ,
, ,
(Burns E. Ideas in Conflict. New York, 1960. P. 397398).
19
, , 
: Lupus est homo homini, non homo.
20
. . . . . 432.

98

21


 (.: Slaughter A.M. New
World Order. Princeton, Oxford, 2004).
22
. ., 1969. . 1. . 1. . 507.
23
, , 
, , . 
, ,
, .
, ,
, ,
( . 
, . ., 1995. . 333334).
24
: . . ., 1981. . 143144.
25
Woodward B. Plan of Attack. New York; London, 2004.

99

c


,
, ().

, .
: (1) , (2) 
(3) 
. / 
, 
. ()
, , 
, . 

, 
. 
. 
(),

. , 
, .
.



, 
, (
) . ,
100

5. c

. 
, .

, , 
. 
(), , .


.


. , ,
, 
. 
,
, . 
, 
.


.

(, , ),
. 
( ,
)
. ,
 ,

, .
,

. 
,
. , ,
, 
.
,
,
, , 
,
101

I.

. 1,
(
 ) , .

1:
1 ; 1 ; 1 ; 2
; 2 ; 2 
; 3 ; 3 ; 3
; 4 ; 4 ; 4

. ,
,
, .
, , . 

. 
, . 
,
. ,
,
, 

.

,
. ,
, , 
,
. , 

. , ,
.
.

,
,
102

5. c


. ,
. 
. XXI
200, , , 
400 600. 
. 

. ,
.
,

, 
().
. 
, .
, 
()
. , 
() (. 1).
1
()

1
2
3
4
5
6
7


.
,
. 
, ,
103

I.

(, , ).
.
, , , 
(
). , , ,
.
, , 
, ,

.
. 
, 
. , 

()
.

,
.
.
, , 

. 
.

().
, , 
, 
, ,
, , ,
(). 
, ,
80% 20% , 
, .
.
8085% . , 
, 
/ () .

 . 
, , , 
104

5. c

( ). 

 .


. . 
,
. 
, 

. 
, . 

. ,
. 
, 
. 
.
, 
, . 
,
, , 

( ).
(
) . 
 

. ,
, , 
( ).

, 
.
, : 
. , 
. 
,
, , , 
.
.
105

I.

,
. , 

. 
.
, 

. 
.
, 
. 

, .

. , 
, .



, .

,

( ).
, 

, , . 
, 
( ) ,
.
, 
:
1) ;
2) ;
3) .
, 
, ,
,
.
, .
106

5. c


jus cogens.

, .
.
, 
,
. ,

,

( 
).
 , , 
, .
, 
. ,
, 

( ).
.
,
, , , ,
 
. 
.

( ), 

. ,
, , ,
.
 , 
. 

, , , 
.

, . 

( ).
107

I.

, 

.

. 
, 
, ,
, 
.
, 
. 
, , 
, . 

, 
, 
.

, 
,
, ,
.
.
, 

. 
, ,

. 
.
, 
, 
, 
 , 
. ,

.
.
, 

108

5. c

, 
, .
. ,
,
. .
, , 
.

. 

. , 
,
( ).
.
,

 
, ( )
, . 
, 
.
, , 
, , ,
.

, 
 1973 . 
, 
,

. ,
. , 
.


, 
, , ,
, .

.
.
109

I.


13 . ,
,
. 

.
, ,
, , , 
 . 
, .

 .
, 
, 
.

. 
. 
,
. , 
,
 (
) . .

, 
,
, :
1. (. ore)  (30 
). , 
.
2. , , 
. 
, , 
, 
.
3. , , (
, , , )
, ,
110

5. c


, , ,
. 
, 2050 
, 
.
4. (. the black gap of the world
community): , ,
.
 , 
, 
, , 

, ,
failed states.
,
, , , 

, 
. , , 
 
, . 
, 
, 
.

. 
,
, 
 .
,
, 
,

. . 
, , (
), , .
, 
,
.
111

I.

: , .
,
.
, 
, 
, .
, , 
,
(, , ).
,
, 
, , , 
.
( ) ,
.

,
.
.
, 
. , , , ,
, 
.

,
. , 
,
.

.

.
,
. 
( 
)
, ,
().
,
.  ,
: .
112

5. c


. , 
: , .
, 2005
99 ( ).
: 
. 
( ). 
, , .


(. . 1)
, ,
. 
, 
, 
. , ,

. ( , 
) (
). ,
. 
,
, (
), .
, .

, : 
. , , 
, 
, .

, 
, . 
, ,
. 
,
. , 

. 
.
113

I.


,

.
(: 
) .
. ,

, 
. , 
.

, 
. ,
, , 
. , 
: , ,
, 
. ,
, , 
().

, 
. 
.
.
. 

.
,

( ), 
, ,
. ,
: , . 
, 
( , ). 

. 
. 
114

5. c

, 
( , ..).

,
. 
, ,
,
(, , ).

,
. 
, 
(  ),
. 

(. 2).
2

XVIII
XIX

II


()

III


()






90

 

19051907

, 
. 
, 
, ,
, 
.
I 
 
115

I.

, 
11 2001 , 
, , , 
.

,

, 
. ,
, , 
,
.

, 

: . 
, , 
. ,

, , 
.
2006 
, 


, . 
.
, 
. 
, 
. .

, 
. ,
,

. , 


.
, .
116

5. c


. 
,  
, , , 
.
, 
.
. 
, 
.
, .

, 
.
().
 
, 
.
 
,
.
, 

. , 
/,

().
, ,
,
. ,
 , , ,
.
, 

 .

() , ,
. , 
, 
( ). ,
, 
117

I.

. .

.
,
,
().
,  , 
, , 
. ,
.
.
, 
, , .
,
, . 
,

, .

, 
,
.
. 
, ,
, 
(, ,
) , , 
.



, 
. 
,
. 
.

.
, 
,
118

5. c

. ,
, 
.

,
, .
,
( ) 
. 
, .
,
, 
.

, 
, , , .
(
). ,
, .
. 
,

. ,

.
, 
, . 
.
() 
, 
.
: , , 
.
, , 

.

( ) 

. ,
.
119

I.


.
 
, 
.

, 
.
,
.
, , , , 
,
. , , 
.

,
.
,
,
. , , 
,
.
, 
. 
.

, .
, , 
.
, .
( )
( , 
).

 ().
, .
( ) 
( ) (, ). 

, ,
.
120

5. c

, , 
, .
(
, ), ,
, (
).
, .
, 
(Primus inter pares).
,
, 
. , 
,
.
.
,

,
,
 
.

().



. ,
,
.
, . 
,
, ,
, .

121



, ,
,
. , ,
( ),
,
,
.

, .



, 
. 

, . 
. 
, 
.
, . 1.


, , 
.
.

, , , 
122

6.

. 1.
:
();
;     
; I ; II ;
III ; IV

.
, . 
:
= + .
, , : 
. 
(
),

.

, 
( 
). , 
. , ,
.. , 

. , ,
.

, . 
: .

.
, ,
, 
. , 
,
. .
123

I.

. 2.

, 

, 
. ,
( 
),
(). , 
(
) , .
, 
, 
, . 

. 
.

, ,
.

 .

: ,
. 
, , 
.

, 
. ,
124

6.

(), (
) (). 

. 
,
, 
.

, , , 
, 
. , 

: ,
.

.
(, 
) : , 
, 
( 
). ,
, .

: .
, ,
,
,
.
( ),
,
.

(, ..).

. 
, . , ,
, , , ,

. , 
, ,
. 
125

I.

. , , 
, , .

,

, 
, 
, . 
 :
What is good for the IBM is good for the US. 
. ,
, ,
.
, , , 
, , , 
, , 
, 
.

, ,
100 . .

, , 
, 
, 
 . ,
, , , 
. , 

( 2006 53 60%
). 
, 15 12 .

, ,
, 
, . 

, .

. ( 
,
126

6.

, , , , .
, 
.)
,
( ) 
. 
, ,
, . 
, 
. , ,
, .

. , 

. .
(
) : 
, , .
, ,
, 
. .
1. .
: (
) . 

, ,
(, ).
, 
,
, .
, 
, .
,
, , .

, . , 
( ) .

.
2. . ,
, ,
127

I.

() 
(). 
, , 
. 
.


. , ( 
). 
, .
3. . 
, .
,
(),
, , .
,
, 
, , ,
, (
, ).

, .

.
4. .
, , 
,
:  ( 
), ,
. ,
.

,
( )
( ).
, 
, . ,
.


128

6.

,
: , .
, 
( ),
. 
. ,

. 

. ,
, 
. 
, .


, 

. 
, 
. /
. . 
. 
: ,
, , () 
.
: 
, (), ( ) 
( ). 
, , .
,
.
.
, 
. , 

.

.
, , 
.
129

I.

,
, 
. 

( )
.
, 
(, , ), 
, 
. 
,
, 
.
 . . :
, . ,

, .
, 
, 

. ,
.
.

.
,
, ,
, 
. ,
. .
.
,
, , 
( ). 

. ,
, 
. 
, .

, 
130

6.

, . 
, .
,
, , 
, () .
.
. 
. ,

, ( ).

.
,
. ,
. .
.
,

. 

( ).


: , , ,
. , ,

, ,
,
 ,

. , , 
.

, 
, 
. , 
. :
= +/ .
, 
.
. 
131

I.

,
. .
, , 
( , Got mit uns, In God We Trust ..).
, , ,

( ). ,
,
, .
. 
, ,

. ,
. ,

,
.
. , , , 
.

, , , , 
, 
. 
. ,
. 

, . ,
, 
, .
,
. 
, , ,
.

. 

, (. 1).
. 
,
, , 
 . ,
132

6.

1


II

III

IV

D 



,
.
, ,
, ,
, 
.
. 
. , 
, ,
(
). ,
,
,
.
. , 

, 
. 
. 
, , ,
,
, .
,

133

I.

.
, 
, , 

, , , , 
.
, 
, .
, 

. 
.

:
. , 1 , 
5 , 10 , ,
, ,
. 

. , , 

, 
.



,
. , 
Pax Americana, 
. , 
,
(
). 
.
,
.
.
( ), 
( ).
status quo,
. ,
134

6.

, . 

(
) . 

( , ).
, 
, . 
.
,

.

, 
. ,
. ,

.

, ,

.
( ) 
. 
, 
.
, 
, .
, , . 
. 
2002 : .
, (, 
, ) .
, ,
.
( , 
) 
, 
. ,

. .
135

I.

, 
,
,
 ,
,
 . , , ,
.

,
. , ,
 
, ,
.

, . , 
, , .

: . , , ,
, , 
, 
. ,
, ,
, ,
.

,
. , 
( )
,
.
, 
. ,

( ).
( ) 
,  
.
, , , 
,
, .
136

6.


, . 
. 
, , .
,
,
, ().
, 
,
( ), ,
( ), 
( ). 
, , 
, , 
.
.

 .
, 

. 
. 
(
),

. 
, 
,
.
,
.
.
, , 
, .
. 
.
 , , ,
, , . ,

.
137

I.


. 
, 
. ,
,
.
, , 
.

, . 
, 
. , 
, ,

.
, .

, .
,
,
, .
( )
,
, . ,
(,
). 
,

. 
.
,
, 
, , , . 
, ,
.
,

, , . , , 
, .
, 
.
138

6.

. 
, 
, . 
,
.
, 
. : , 
, , , 
. , . 
,
(); ,
().
() , 
.
,

. , 
.
, , 
.
 , 

(, ..).




, 
(
).
() , 

. , 
,
.

. .
, 
, 
, .
139

I.

, , 
, . 
,
: , , 
. , , 
,
, , (. 2).
2

( )

( )

II

( )

( )

III

IV

(
)



. ,
,
. , . . 

( ) 
. 
. ,

. 
( ).


, ,
. 
. ( 
1012 ).
140

6.

, , .
, 
, .

() .

, . 
( ) (
). 
.
. ,
, , . 
( , ).

(, ) 
(, ) .
, ,

, , 
. ,

, .
,
.
,
,
. .  
. ,
.
, 

. 
, . (
) 
, 
, .

, , 
( ), ,
,
( ).
141

I.


, ,  , 
, . 
,
, , 
. 

. , , 
.  ,
,
.
,
, 
, . , 
, , 
,

. , ,
, . ,
,
( ).
.
, 
.
, 
(
). 
.


, 
, , ,
, 
. 

.

,

( 
). , , 
142

6.


. , .
,

.
(): ,
( ).

,
. . 
, . 
(
), , 
,
. 
.

, , . 
.

, 
, (
) , 
( ). , ,
.

, ,
. ,
, (
). , 
, 
, 
: , .

.
,
,
.
, 
, , ,

143

I.

. , ,
.
, 
: (), 
() (). 
, .
3


II

III

1/1

1/2

1/3

II

2/1

2/2

2/3

III

3/1

3/2

3/3


. 1/1
() , 
, .
, 
.
1/2, 2/1 2/2.
(), 
(
). 2/2, ,
,
.
, .
.
1/3, 2/3, 3/1
,
. , 3/3
, .

,
.
.

, , 
144

6.

, 
, 
, .
,

, , , , 
: 
, . 

.
, 
(, , 
..) . 
.


, , ,
. 
, , 
, .

, 
, ,
.
 
, 
,
.

. 
, 
, , ,
, , 
. , ,
, ,
(,
. ), , ,
.

, 
(),
145

I.


, , ,
, . ,

. , 
( ).



( ), ,
.
. ,
,
, , . 
,
,
.
, , ,

.
, 

, 
, 
. ,

.

.
, 
.

.
, .

, 
, , . 
,
, 
. ,
,
146

6.

.
, .
, 
, , , 
, , , ,
. 
(1,52 : 1), (3 : 1), (5 : 1) 
(10 : 1). 
,
. 
, .

. , 
, , , 
. 
,
, 
.

,
, 
/ ,
. 

.
, .
, .
,
.

, . 
. 

soft power ( ).
, 
.
,
.
. , 
, , , . 

147

I.

, 
, . 

. ,

. 
.
.
,
,
( 
)
. 

. , , ,
, , .
, , 

, 

.
, 
. 

( ).
,
. 
, .
,
, ,
, 
, .
,


, . 

. , ,
, ,

. ( 
148

6.

) .
.
,
, 
. 

(), 
. ,
. 
.

. . 
, , 
, ,
. .
( ) , 
 ( , 
) .
, ,
,
,
,
, , 
.
, , ,
, .

,
. 

. 

,  , 
( ).


,
, , ,
.

, ,
149

I.

. , 
, 
. 
. 
(
) , 
, 

 .
,
, 
. , 
,
( , 
..), 
.

, 
. , 

93%, 21%, 
.
,
, 
.
, 
, 
, .
,
.
, 
.

, , 
. , 
,
.
, 
,
. 
, , ,
150

6.

. 
, ,
. (
, ).


.

. , 
, , .

,
(, , ) 
 ,
.  ( 
) 

. 
,
. 
, .
(), ,
, , 

, .

 , 
.
1. . , 

(, , , ..).
,

,  
. 
, ,
, 
.
,
, ,
151

I.

,
, 
. ,
, , 
. , 

.
2. .
, ,
, , 
.
,

. .

, .
3. .
, 
 , 
, 
, 
.
, .

 , 

. , , , 
 , 
.
, .

. ,
,
, 
.

() 
,
, ( ).
152




2000 .
, ,
2001 2003 , 
. 2009 
2008 
,
.
. 
, 
,
.
2003 ,

. 20042008

, 
. 
.


, , .
, ,

( ) :
, , ,
.
. .
153

I.

, 
, 
.

, , . ,
,
,
,
. 2000 .
19912001 , 

,
.
. 
(post coldwar period)

. 2000
. ,
1990 .
.
, 
. 
, , , , ,
( ) .
2000 .
, .
, . 
 , 
, 
. ,
. 
, .

I . , 

.
, , 
,
. , ,
. 

154

7.

. . 
.
, 
.
. .
2001 . 
, 
. 
20012002
,
. 
( 19861991 . )
( 19911999 
. ).
2003 .
, ( 
) 
.
.
,
.



2000 
.
100 ,
1. , 
.
( 
). ,
, 
, .
, . ,
,

, 
.
2000 ,
. , ,
155

I.

, .
. ,
,  
, .
,
, 
, .

, ,
, , , 
, . 
? ,

.
(19621991)
, . 
, , , 

. 
, . ,
, 
.

. , ,
, .
,
. , 

( ).
 ,
, 


.


. 1990 
, 

 2. 
156

7.


( ) .


1990 . 

,
.
, 1990
( 
 
), ( 
). , 
(19861991),
.
1990 , 

, . , 

.
, , , 
,


.

.
, ,
. , 

2001 . 
11 , . 
(
)  .
, , 
, 
. 
, 
,
3. , 
.
157

I.

,
, ,

.


2001 ( ),
2003 .

, 1962 .
, 
, . 1950
, .
, 

. , 
. 
,
.
. , 
(rogue states),
, ,
, 
. .

.
,

, 
, . 
, :

. ,
.

.

, ,
, , , , , .

.
158

7.

, 
.



.

( )

.

.

,
. 

(, 
). 
, , 

.
:
, 
. ,
, 

.
, .

, . 
,  
(, , , ) 
. 
.
. 
, C
, 
.
. 
.
,
159

I.


, , , 
.
.
. 
, , 
,
, 
.
. .

.
. ,
. 
:

. 
4.

.
,
.
  . 
,  
. 
, . 
: ,

, 
,
1990 , , , .


, 
.
 () 19601970
, 
.
, 
, , ,
5.
160

7.

 ,
,

. , ,

,
. 
, 
,
, ,
, .
,
.
, , 
.
,
,
.
, ,
.

.
 ,
 . , 

. , 
, ,
, .
, ,
, , . 
, 
,
. 
, 
 
? ,
, ,
, ?
 
. 
, :
161

I.

, 
;
;
,
, 
.
1980 ,
 , 
. 
1990 .
, 
6.
. ,
,
(soft power)7,
(smart power). ,

. , ,

, , , 
, ,
. 
, 
.
, , , 

, 

,
, .


. 
,


.
. ,
, 
, 
162

7.

. :
, 
. 
( ). , 
:
(1) , (2)  , (3) 
 , (4) , (5) 
( 
, , ).



19451962 . 19631973
. 19741985 ,
(19861990), 1990
XXI .

. 
.


.
8.
, 
,
. 
:

;

, 

( , 
, 
);

.

, 

163

I.

. 
, 1990 ,
.

, , 
, 
.


, , 
.

, ,
, , 
, .

,
, , 

. ,
,
, , 
, , .
,
,
, 
, .
1990 ,
, , , 
, , .

(knowledgebased society) .
, , 


, 
, 
.


. 
164

7.

. . , 
.
(engagement),
. 1990 ,
.
, ,
,
, 
.


.


 2006 .
, 
, .

. 
. 

, , .


.

.

. 

, ,
,

.
,
, 

 
.


165

I.

1
., : Thomas J. Volgy and Alison Bailin. International Politics and State Strength.
Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2003; Thomas J. Volgy. Politics in the Trenches. Citizens, Politicians,
and the Fate of Democracy. The University of Arizona Press, 2001.
2
. . 19182003.
.: , 2003. . 3. . 13. C. 583638.
3
Brown S. The Illusion of Control. Force and Foreign Policy in the 21st Century. Washington:
The Brookings Institution Press, 2003; Falk R. The Great Terror War. New York: Olive Branch
Press, 2003.
4
. // .
2004. 2. . 4358.
5
. . . ., 1997. . 196212.
6
Tanaka A. Is There a Reaslistic Foundation for a Liberal Word Order? // Prospects for
Global Order. Vol. 2 / S. Sato and T. Taylor (eds.). London: The Royal Institute of International
Relations, 1993. . 2537.
7
Nye J. S. The Paradox of American Power. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002. 
, ,
(hard power).
8
. . . .: ,
2004; . . .
.: , 2006; . //
. 2005. 3. . 1832.

166



 1990 
:

. 

. 
, 
1.
( 
. ) () 

. 1994 .

2.

, 
3. 

. 


. 
, 
.




( ) 
167

I.

.
1990


.

, 
1990 . 
 , 
.

, 

,
,  4.
,
, 
. 
,
, 5.

, ?

.
. , 
.
,
. . . 6. 
,
. 
, . ,

, 
,
.

, 
. , 
( )
, 
.
168

8.

, ,
? 7, 

. 2000 
( 
) ,
.
, 
.  
.
 , 

,
. 
,
.
, 

. 
,
. ,


.
. 
, ,
, 
.

, 
.

(V . ..) . (1510 ). 


,
,
. 

, , 
.
169

I.

, 

.
. 
, ,

8. , 

. 
18611923
, , 
, , 
9. , 
,
 10.
, , 
,
.
,

.

(1973), ( 1950 )
( 1960 ).
,

, , ,
, 11. , 
.

,
. 
(, ), 
. ,
, . 
1990 , 
, 
. 
,  ,

, 12.
170

8.

. , 

.
. , 
,
,
,
(, , , ,
, 1940 13).

14,
.
, 


. , 
,
 . 

.

. , 
, 
. 
, ,
 15. 
, 

.


. 

, 
. 
.
, , 
. ,
, .
,
.
171

I.


, 
. ,
, 
(

20022003 ). , 
,
.
, 
, . , 

.
, 

.

16.
, .
,
,
.
: 
, 
, 
.



, . 
XIX . 

, 
. 17.

. , 
, , 

, .
, . , 
, 
172

8.

; ,

18. 

, 

, ( 
, )
. 
, , 19.


.
, 
, . , 
,
. , 
1967 1982 
20.
,
,
, 
, , 
,

21.

, 
. , 
, 
, 
,
. ,

( ),
, 
. 
, 22. , 
, ,
. ,
23. , .
173

I.


,
XX
19701980 .
, 
,
. .
,
, ,
.
, 

. , 

 (, , 
) .
,
: 
.
( , ) ,
. , ,
. 
.
: ,
.

, ,
.
, ,
.

( ). ,
,
,
, 
24. 
, ,
.
, ,

,
174

8.

. , ,
, ,

,
,
.
, 
 . 
( ) 
. 
,
, .
, , 
, ,
,
.

, 25.
,
,
26. ,
, 

, ,
. 
(19931997),
. ,
 
. 

( ) .

, 

, 27.
, , , 
28.
, , 
.

, , 
175

I.

. . 
, 

POLITY, 

.

, 
XIX XX 29.
. 

, 
.

 
.
,

. 
19101920 
, 
. 1930

, 
.

, , 
30.
, 
. (19161920) 
. (
, 
) . 
,
XIX .
, 
. , 
,
31. 1930 

32.
176

8.


. 

. 

,
.
. 

 ,
.
, 

.

 . , 
, , 
,

 .
 33.
, 

, . 
, 
() (),
, 
()
34.
,
. , , ,

.

: ,

.
(. . ), 
, 
(. ), , 
 35. , , 
177

I.


. ,
, 
,


.
(, . . )

36.

. 

.
,  


, , . 
.
,
, 

, , 
(, , , 
) .


,

.

, , 
, 
.
,
, ,

, 37. 

.
178

8.


 ,

.
 , .

, 
.

, , , ,
, , .

38.

39. , 
 .

1
Levy J. S. The Democratic Peace Hypothesis: From Description to Explanation // Mershon
International Studies Review. 1994. No 38. . 452.
2
.: Transcripts of Clintons Address // New York Times. 1994. 26 January.
. , 
, , , 
, , 
, .
. (Rummel R. J. Power Kills: Democracy as a Method of Nonviolence. London, 1997. P. 1).
3
., : . . XXI :
Pax Democratica? // . 2000. 1; . 
// Pro et Contra. 2003. 1; . . ,
// , , . 1999. 7; .
. ., 2003; . . : 
? (  ) // 
. 2000. 3; . : 
 // 
. 18. 2001. 1; ., ., .
: .
., 2003. .
: . . . ., 2002; . M.
. ., 2003.
4
., : . . 
//
/ . . . . . ., 2004. . 121.
5

.: /
. . . . ., 2004; ., .
// . 2005. 1.

179

6
.   
// . . . .: , 1990; . . .:
, 1976. . 1.
7

. 
.: Debating the Democratic Peace / M. E. Brown, S. M. LynnJones and S. E. Miller
(eds.). Cambridge, 1996. C. : Ray. J. L. A Lakatosian View
of the Democratic Peace Research Program // Progress in International Relations Theory /
C. Elman and M. F. Elman (ed.). Cambridge, 2003; Chernoff F. The Study of Democratic Peace
and Progress in International Relations // International Studies Review. 2004. No 6.
8


, . 
, , . .
, : Chernoff F. Op. cit.
9
1861,
18951896 ,  
1923 .
10
Layne Ch. Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace // International Security.
1994. Vol. 19. No 2; Layne C. Lord Palmerston and the Triumph of Realism: AngloFrench
Relations, 18301848 // Paths to Peace: Is Democracy the Answer? / M. F. Elman (ed.).
Cambridge, 1997.
11
. : Rosato S. The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory // American
Political Science Review. 2003. No 97. P. 590591.
12
. : Mansfield E. D., Snyder J. Democratization and War // Foreign Affairs.
1995. No 74; MacFarlaine N.S. Democratization, Nationalism, and Regional Security in the Southern
Caucasus // Government and Opposition. 1997. No 10; Snyder J. From Voting to Violence:
Democratization and Nationalist Conflict. New York, 2000; Mansfield E. D. and Snyder J. Democratic
Transitions, Institutional Strength, and War // International Organization. 2002. No 56.
13

, 
1946 , 
( ).
14
Rosato S. Op. cit. P. 596597.
. ., : Oren I., Hays J. Democracies May Rarely
Fight One Another, but Developed Socialist States Rarely Fight at All // Alternatives. 1997. No 4.
15

. .: Rosato S. Op. it.
16
, , ,
. .:
Dueck C. New Perspectives on American Grand Strategy // International Security. 2004. No 4.
17
., : . . Pax Americana . ., 2004.
18
. : 
// : 5 . . II.
. ., 1997. . 804.
19
. // . . . 6. . 301.
20
Salamee G.. Appels dempire, ingerences et resistences a` l>ge de mondialisation. Paris:
Fayard, 1996. .106.
21
. . ., 1999. . 2223.
22
. . . . 18.
23
. . 29.
24
.: Waever O. The Sociology of a Not So International Discipline: American
and European Developments in International Relations // International Organization. 1998. No 4;
International Relations Still an American Social Science? / R. Crawford, D. Jarvis (eds.). New

180

York, 2001; Oren I. Our Enemies and US: Americas Rivalries and the Making of Political Science.
Ithaca, 2002; Tsygankov A. P. Whose World Order? Russias Perception of Western Ideas after the
Cold War. Notre Dame, 2004.
25
.: MacFarlaine N. S. Op.
cit; Snyder J. Op. it.
26
Tickner J. A. Gendering World Politics. New York, 2001. P. 103.
27
: . 
// . 2002. 8; Tsygankov A. P. Op. cit.
28
Tickner J. A. Op. cit.
29
Oren I. Op. cit. P. 25.
30
: 1) 
; 2) 
; 3) ; 4) 
; 5) 
; 6)
; 7) 
. .: Dahl R. Dilemmas of Pluralist
Democracy: Autonomy versus control. New Haven London: Yale University Press, 1982. .
: . ? ( 
) // Pro et Contra. 1998. 4.
31
Dahl R. Op. cit. P. 38.
32
Ibid. P. 100101.
33
, 
 , 
. , 

. .: Oren I. Is Culture Independent of National Security? How
Americas National Security Concerns Shaped Political Culture Research // European Journal
of International Relations. 2000. No 4; O . Response to Almond, Muller, and Risse // European
Journal of International Relations. 2001. No 3.
34
, ,
. anarchy is what
states make of it ( , ), 
International Organization, 
. .: Wendt A. Anarchy is
What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics // International Organization.
1992. No 2.
35
., , . . , : .,
. // 
. 2001. 1421 .
36
., : . 
// . 2004. 1.
37

. ., : Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention /
B. F. Walter, J. Snyder (eds.). New York, 1999.
38
, . 

, 
. .: Lopes A. M. Russia and the Democratic Peace: The Decision to Use Military
Force in Ethnic Disputes // Understanding of Russian Foreign Policy / T. Hopf (ed.). University
Park, 1999.
39
. : ., .
.

181


2000 

.
, 
, . 
: 
,
? ,
, 1960 , 

.




, , 
, , 
, .


.  
, , 
,

. 
.

, 
.

182

9.

(
,
),

(19141919). , 

. , 
, 
, , ,

, 
. 

 .

 
.

,
 . 



, 
, 
, 1.
,
( 
), 

, 

, .

,

.

, 1945 .

, 
183

I.


. 
, . , 
, 
:
,


2.
: 
, 
3.



. 350 
, 
,
. 
, ,
(,
, ),

.
, 

. 
.

.
, 
, 

, 19401950 ,
1960 . 

, 

.

XX XXI ,
184

9.


.
 , 
,
 ,
. 
. 
. , 
, ,
.


() , 

4.
. , ,

.
, 
,
, ,
.
( 
, ),
( ), 
( , ), 
( )
.
, 
, 
. 

,

.
, 


, .
11 2001 
, 
185

I.

. 
, 
. 

, ,
,

(1945), 
(1957) (1989).

, 
. ,

, .


. , 
.  


,
.
XXI
, 
, , .

.
, ,
.


, .
, 
.

, 
. 
( 
,

). 
186

9.

. , 
. 
,
.
, , 5
, 

.


( 
) , 
.
,
,
.


.

, , 
 .
( ) 
, 
. 
.

, .


.

, 
, 
, 
,
.
, 
, . 
187

I.

, ,
, 
( ,
) , .

, , , 
, . 

. 
, .

: , 
, 
.

(
) ,
, , , , .


6. 


. , 
, ,
, , . 
, 100

, . ,
,
, 
, , .

.

,
. ,
, 
, .

.
188

9.

.
,
.

. , , 
, ,
.
, 


. 
,
, 


. ,
, 
.

,
,

. (, 
, )
7. 
 . 
.
8,2%
, 3%.
, ,
, .
. 
1990,
40%. 1950

38 . , 2002 600 . 
, , , , 

.
. 
, 
189

I.

, 
. , 

8.
, 
. . 

. 
,


. , 
, , . 

, 
.

. 

,
.

.
, , 

. 
. 
.

, , ,
. 
, 

, ,
,
, 9.

. , 
,
. 
190

9.

, , ,  ,
, , ,

. 
. 
,
, , . 

.




,
( ), ( 
) ( , ). 

, 
,
, 10.
,
, 
, ,
, ,
.

.
, 
,

. , 
.

,
().


 

, , .
, 
191

I.

, 
: 
. 
,
.

, 

. 
. , ,
, , , ,


.

,
,
VII .

, 
, ,
, . , 
.
 , 
, 
, 1973 
, .

(19801988)

, .

.
1986 ( ,

11) 
. ,
, , , 
(1991) 2003 .

.  
192

9.


,

, , 
.

1974
, , 
, .

 , 

.


; 
, 
.

, 
.


.



, 
. ,

, 
.


, 
, . 


, 

.
193

I.

(, ) .


, , 
, , 
. ,
.

. , 
, 
. 

.
 
. ,
12. 
, 
.

. 



.  
, 
,
. 


.

. 
 
. 


.
.

. 
.
194

9.

.


.
.

. 
, , 
,

. ,

(Greater Middle
East. . .). ,
. 

, 
.

.
,
, 
, 
. , 
. 
.
, 
.

. ,

. , 
, 

. 

. 

.


195

I.

. 

.
, 
, 
. 
,


. 

. 
,

.
( )
. 


.
, ,
, 

, .

, .



XVII 
. 

. 
, .
. 

. .

() 
(, , , ). ,
196

9.

, : 
. , 
, (,
) ,
( ,
, ).
.
,
, 

. , 
, 

. ,
. 
, , ,

. 
. 
,
, . 
() 
13.
,
casus belli.
, ( 
)
( ,
).

.
, (1) 
, , (2)
14. 
, 
. 
, 
.

. 
, 
197

I.

. 

.
,
, .
. 

. 

, 

, , ,
, , .

, 
.

, 

, , 15.



. 
, 
.

, .

,
. , . 
, 
, 
. ,
, . 


.

(). 
 , 
198

9.


, . 


.

.

, 16.
, ,
. 
,
, ,
, . 

, , 
17.

. 
, . 
. ,
, . . , 
,
: 
, 
, ,
 . ,
 
, 
18. 


. 
,
.

. 
,

.
,
199

I.

.

,
.
,
.

.

. C 1946 1997
287 , 57 . 
10 17 . 1991 

. 
6 , 8 ,
, , 11 .
( ) 

.
. 
.


.
.



19. 


. 
.
, , 
,

, ,
, 
20.

, ,
200

9.

,


. 
, 
, .


.

. 1.
Lippmann W. US Foreign Policy: Shield of the Republic. Boston, 1943. P. 5.
3
, 5 1992 .
4
, , 
.
5
. weak, failing and failed states. . .
6
. . [ ]. 
: http://www.humansecuritynetwork.org.
7
.: . : 
. .: , 1988; Blair B. Crisis Stability and Nuclear War.
Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1988.
8
Human Security Report 2005. War and Peace in the 21st Century. Oxford: Oxford University
Press, 2005.
9
Rothschild E. What is Security? // Daedalus. 124:3. 1995. P. 55.
10
Buzan B., Waever O. and Wilde J. de. Security: A New Framework for Analysis. Boulder,
CO: Lynne Rienner, 1998.
11
. . : . .: , 2006.
12
Nel Ph. Globalization andViolent Political Dissent in Developing Countries // Globalization
and Conflict. National Security in a New Strategic Era. Routledge, London and New York,
2006. . 5676.
13
., : Gartzke E. Economic Freedom and Peace // Economic Freedom of the
World: 2005. Annual Report. P. 2944.
14

: . . XXI :
Pax Democratica? // . 2000. 1. . 2237; . ., 
. . // . 2005.
. 3. 3 (9). . . 3344.
15
Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Soft Power. New York: Public Affairs, 2004.
16
.: . .
// . 2006. 3. . 515.
17
. . : //
. 2007. 1. . 39.
18
. . : // 
. 2006. 45.
19
Gatt A. The Return of Authoritarian Great Powers // Foreign Affairs. 2007. JulyAugust.
20
Kagan R. Forget the islamic threat, the coming battle will be between autocratic nations
like Russia and China and the rest // The Sunday Times. 2007. September 2.
2

201

10
-


. C ,
, 
. I 
, , 
. 
,
( ), 
( ). , 


,
60 .
1991 
, 
 , 
, 2000 
.
, : 
, 
, . ,
, 
, , .

. , 
, 
.
 , 
202

10. 

, .
, 
. 
. 1.

-

 
,
2. , , 
( ),

3.
. , 

, .
 ,
.
4. , 
, .
, ,
,
, .

, .
, 
. , .
, 
, ,
,
. 
. , 

. 
. :
. 
,
. ,

5.
203

I.

. . ,
,
.
, 
. , 
6.

, 
,
. 
(1975),
.
. , 
, 
.
(19861991)
, .



1991 .  
, 
,
.
I . ,
. 

,
. 
.
,
,
,
.


, 

( , ,
7).
204

10. 

,
, , 

. ,
 . ,
,
.
, 

, ,
, 

. ,

, , 
, . 
.
, , .
, .




 . 
(19891993). . (19932001) 
, 
. . 
(20012009) , 

.
, 
, 
.
, 

.
(
), , 
, 
.
205

I.

. Pax
Americana ,

.
, , , , ,
, , , , , .
, ,
.
( 
)

, , . 
.
2009 . 
, 
.
, 
 . ,
, , 

8.
, .
. 9, 
,
, .
, , 
, ,
10.
I , 
, ,
, , 
, , , , , 
, .
, I
,
.
. 
(, , , ),
(), (): 
, .
206

10. 

. 
(functioning core) 
(nonintegrated gap).
: .
, 
. , , , ,
, , , , 
11.
, 
.
, ,
, 
. 
, 
12.
. 

, , 
, 
,
(, /
). 

,
,
13.
.
. ,
.

.
, 
. , ,
. 
,
.
, 
, 

.
207

I.

, , , 
.

,

. 
.
,
14.




 . 
: , 
, 
,
, 
?
, 
,
, , 
. . ,
, ,
,
. 
, ,
. , ,


. ,
,
15.

I ,
. , . , . , . .
. , (critical) 
, 
: , 
16.
208

10. 




. 


.
, 
( ), , 
.

I 
, 
. , 
,
.
,
. .
.

.


, ,
, 17.
, 

, .
, , ,


.
18.
, 
,

. 
, 
. 
, 
, .
209

I.

,
: 
, 
. 
, 
, , .
, 
, 
. ,

, . 
(
) 
.
,
,
.
19.
2002

. .

. ,

. , ,
.


20.
, ,
,  
, .

. 
, 
(, , ,
),
. ,

, ,
21.
210

10. 


. 

, .
, 
,
(, , , ),

.

,  
,
, , , 

. , (
, , )

, , 22.
,

23.


, 
, . 

, , , , . 
, 
,
, , 
. 
, ,
, 
24.
,

. (1) 
(2) 
, 
. 
, ( )
211

I.



. 
(
), ,
( ).
1990 
,

. 
.
, 10 ,
,
. 
, , 
,
,
.
,


25.
, , , , ,
. , 
. . ,
. 
, ,
, , 
26.
, , .
: 1) , 
;
2) ,
, , 
; 3) ,
, 
; 4) , 

.
, , :
212

10. 

, , . , 
, .

, , ,
, , .
, I 
, . , , 
, , .
.

1
Albright M., Weber V. The Right Path to Arab Democracy // The Washington Post. 2005.
June 5. [ ]. : /www.cfr.org/publication/8169/
right_path_to_arab_democracy.html.
2
/ . . . . . .
.: , 2004. . 587.
3
. , . . 
(.: , 1997. . 40).
4

: . . . 
. .: , 2004. . 11138.
5
Waltz K. Theory of International Politics. Readings: AddisonWesley, 1979. P. 11114.
6
. . . . . 2325.
7
.: : 4 . / . . . 
. .: , 2003. . 3. . 11.
8
, 
: . . :
. .: , 2005; . . .
.; . . : . .: , 2002.
9
Ayoob M. and Zierler M. The Unipolar Concert. The NorthSouth Divide Trumps
Transatlantic Differences // World Policy Journal. 2005. Vol. XXII. No 1. P. 3142.
10
, , ,
. , . 
1990
()
.
11
Barnett Th. The Pentagon New Map. War and Peace in the TwentyFirst Century. New
York: G. P. Putnams Sons, 2004. P. 131132.
12
Ayoob M. and Zierler M. Op. cit. P. 37.
13

, 
,
. . : , 
, , 
; , , , 
(McFaul M. Putin Gambles Big and Loses // The Washington
Post. 2004. December 21).

213

14
. : . . : 
? // : , , . 2006. 1. . 112.
15
Walt S. Taming American Power // Foreign Affairs. 2005. Vol. 84. No. 5. P. 105120.
16
Fukuyama F. America at the Crossroads. Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative
Legacy. New Haven; London: Yale University Press, 2006. P. 10.
17
,
, 
. ,
I

. 

, ,
. . . . , 
, XXI 
, , 
. ,
,

, . .: Rabkin J. The Case for Sovereignty: Why
the World Should Welcome American Independence. Washington, D.C., 2004; Krasner S.
Sovereignty: Organized Hypocrisy. Princeton, 1999.
18
Fukuyama F. Op.cit. P. 180.
19
Ibid. . 114.
20
. : Hendrickson D., Tucker R. The Freedom Crusade // The National Interest. 2005.
Fall. No 81. P. 1221.
21
Encarnacion O. The Follies of Democratic Imperialism // World Policy Journal. Vol. XXII.
2005. Spring. No 1. P. 4760.
22
Carothers Th. The Democracy Crusade Myth // The National Interest online. 2007. June 5.
[ ]. : http://www.nationalinterest.org.
23
, 
, ,
. 
, , 
, , 
50 . . , 
, 450 . Rieff D. Blueprint for
a Mess // The New York Times Magazine. 2003. November 2. P. 72.
24
Hendrickson D., Tucker R. Op. cit. P. 1921.
25
(unipolar moment) 
, . 1999 
. 
, : Wohlforth W. The
Stability of a Unipolar World // International Security. 1999. Summer. Vol. 24. No. 1. P. 541.
26
Haass R. The Age of Nonpolarity. What Will Follow U.S. Dominance // Foreign Affairs.
2008. MayJune. [ ]. : /www.foreignaffairs.org/
20080501faessay87304.

214

11





1991 . 
1990 
. ,

. 
, 
. 
: 1991
[]
100 ,
. 
.
1.




11 2001 .

. 
, 
. , ,

.

2. 
215

I.

( )
1990 
.
2000 . 2001 
,
 
. 2001
, .
,
, 3.

(20012002) (20032005) 
. , 
,

. ,
. 

( 
) .
, 

.

.
.
.
, 
XXI :
,
. 
. , 
, , 
.
, 
.


: , 
. 

216

11.

. , 


4. 
,
.

, 

, 5.
, , 
(, revolution in military affairs).
6,  
. 
, . 
. 

 ,
.

.
, 
, , 
.
, , , 
7.


.
, 
,

.

, 
, , 
, ,
. 
, 

8.
217

I.

, 
, .

(core competency) 
.
.
, 
. ,

, ,
.
, 

. , 


 () . 
 ()

30 .
(dominant player) 
 , 
, . 
20012004 ,

,
.
.
(dimension of warfare) 
, , 
(, , , , 
).
, (paradigm shift) 
. , 

(), 
 ,
9.
. 
, 
, .
218

11.

, 
, , , 
.
,
. ,

(17751783) 
,

.

, 
,  .
. , 
18301850
10, 
. 
.
,
: (1) ,
; (2) 
(3) 
11. . ,

( ), 
12:

;
,
;

;

13.


.
, 
. ,

219

I.

, , 

.
, (information
warfare), . ,
. 14.


, .
, 1990
(system of systems),
. . ,
, ,
, ,
.
, . 
(net war).
,

: ,  
.
, , (cooperative) 
.
(1991). 

(weapon carrier) 
, .
( ,
),

. ,
15.

,
,
16.

. 

, , . , 

220

11.

. . ,
, :
, 
, 
VIII ,
, , 17.

.
,
18. ,
, 
, 
, 
.
, 
.

, 
,
. , 
.

, 
.
. 
.
, 
. 
.




.
, , , . 
. , XXI ,
,
19.

 . 
221

I.


, 
, 
.


.

.
,
.
. . 
(John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center
and School at Fort Bragg, North Carolina)20.


, 

.

. 

.


, (effects based operations).

.
,

.
, 

. 
21, 22.
, , ,

, 
.
. 
XIX
222

11.

, 
. , ,
,
.
, 
(). . 

, 
.
.

.

.

. ,

, 23.

: 
, , . ,
 
: 
.

. ,
,
. , 

.
, , 
:
.

, . 

50  . 

. ,

,
223

I.

, 
. .
, 
2003 . 
.
, 

. ,

.
101  ,

.
, 

.
, 
. ,
.
, 
, 
. 
.
.
, 

. 
, 
,
, 
. 

.
, 
. (19932000).
1998
.
. 11 2001 
, 

. 
224

11.

, 
. ,
 , .

,

(timecritical targeting cell), 
.
.
. 
,

.
 
.
. 
,
. 
.

,
.
,
. ,

.

,
. , , 
,
.
. . 
, 
. 
, , ,

, 
. . 
,
24. ,
.
225

I.


, 
.
. ,
,
,
. 
, , 
, .
, :

.



. 

. 

. ,
. 

. 
, , ,
.
. 
.
.  
,
.

, 
, 
.
(
)
, .
,

,
226

11.

, . 


. (
) : (1) 

, ; (2) 
(3) 
(, , , ).
,
, () 
.
, , ( 
) , 
.
, 
1980 , 

.
(
) 
1940 ,
, 
 .
. 
1940  ,
,
. ,
, . 


, 25.
(
)
20012002 . 

(, , 
..). 


227

I.

, . 


. , 
,
.

.
,
, 
,
( ).

, .

,
.



,
.
, 

.
,

.

. 
,

( ) .
, 
, 
26. ,

, 
.
, .
228

11.

1990 
(wars of necessity)
(wars of choice). 
,
() 27.
, ,
.
, ,
,
. ,

( ) ,
, 28, 
.
.

, 
.

, 
. , 
.
1991
. 
, 
.
. , 
, , 
, , .
,
(
)
(1962
1991).  
 
29.

, 

( ). , ,
229

I.


.

. 
.
, ,
. 
, 
, ,
.
. 

, . 
.


(bellum), 
, , ,
(guerra), 30. 
31.
guerra 
.
 . , 

, , ,
, . ,
.
,
, . 

: , , 
( , 
), , ,
, 
.
, 
 ,

. 
, , 
. 
230

11.

, , 
. , ,
. 

, 
.


 , 
, 
,
.
.

. , , 
. 
32.
. 
, 

33.



. 

, .
,
, 
, .
,
,  
, .

,
( 
),
.


, . 
231

I.


. 
, . 


.
(
, )

, ,

.


.

, 
.
()
, . ,
,
,
. 
.

, 
, 

.

, .
( 
) 


.

( )

.
 34: 
232

11.

( ) 
. 
,
35.

,
 .
,
,
.

, 
, .

, 
.

( , 
). 
.


. 

.


 
,
, , 
.

, , 

. ( )
.
() 

.


233

I.

. 
, 

. , 
,
,
.

1
Zellen B. Rethinking the Unthinkable: Nuclear Weapons and the War on Terror // Strategic
Insights. 2004. Vol. III. Issue 1.
2
Donnelly T. Underpinnings of the Bush Doctrine. National Security Outlooks. Washington:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. 2003. February.
3
Wirtz J. J., Russel J. A. US Policy on Preventive War and Preemption // Nonproliferation
Review. 2003. Spring. P. 113.
4

. 
(
),
 
 .
, 

, .
. . , . . 
,
. , . . 
(.: , 2003),
. 2004 
,
(.: , 2004). 
. . ( 
: // 
. 2005. 1).
. . ( 
// . 2004. 3).


( : , , / .
. . . , . . . .: , 2005),
( . . :  . 
:  , 2004).
5
Sicherman H. Observations on the War // American Diplomacy. 2004. Vol. IX. No 1.
6
., : Kendall F. Exploiting the Military Technical Revolution. A Concept for
Joint Warfare // Strategic Review. 1992. Spring. P. 2330; Mazarr M. The Revolution in Military
Affairs: A Framework for Defense Planning // Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College,
Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. 1994. June 10; Krepinevich A. Cavalry to Computer: The Pattern
of Military Revolution // The National Interest. 1994. Fall. P. 3042; Libick M., Hazlett J. The

234

Revolution in Military Affairs // Strategic Forum. No 11. Washington: Institute for National Stra
tegic Studies, National Defense University, 1994; Libicki M. Information and Nuclear RMAs
Compared // Strategic Forum. No 82. Washington: Institute for National Strategic Studies, Na
tional Defense University. 1996. June; Libicki M. Illuminating Tomorrows War // McNair Paper
60. Washington, 1994; Barnett J. Future War: An Assessment of Aerospace Campaigns in 2010.
Alabama: Air University Press, Maxwell AFB, 1996; Gray C. The Changing Nature of Warfare //
Naval College Review. 1995. Vol. XLIX. No 2. P. 722.
7
Past Revolutions Future Transformations: What Can the History of Revolutions in Military
Affairs Tell Us About Transforming the U.S. Military? // MR1029DARPA, RAND, 1999. P. 8.
, ,
, , , , 
.
8
Tilford E. The Revolution in Military Affairs: Prospects and Cautions // Strategic Studies
Institute, US Army War College. 1995. June 23. P. 1.
9
Past Revolutions Future Transformations. P. 10.
10
.: Sloan E.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Implications for Canada and NATO. McGillQueens
University Press, 2002. P. 1832.
11
Tilford E. Op. cit. P. 2.
12
Metz S., Kievit J. Strategy and the Revolution in Military Affairs: From Theory to Policy //
Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College. 1995. June 23. P. V.
13
Nonlethal Weapons and Capabilities. Report of an Independent Task Force Sponsored by
the Council on Foreign Relations. New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2004.
14
Molander R., Riddile A., Wilson P. Strategic Information Warfare // RAND, MR661
OSD, 1996.
15
Past Revolutions Future Transformations. P. 83.
16
.:
. // .
2004. 2.
17
Sloan E. Op. cit. P. 1920.
18
Mahnken T. G., FitzSimonds J. R. Revolutionary Ambivalence: Understanding Officer
Attitudes toward Transformation // International Security. 2003. Vol. 28. Issue 2.
19
Paarlberg R. L. Knowledge as Power: Science, Military Dominance, and U.S. Security //
International Security. 2004. Vol. 29. Issue 1.
20
Janes Sentinel Security Assessment North America / Janes Information Group, 2004.
21
Kralev N. The Conduct of Diplomacy: Diplomacy Adapts to New Threats // American
Diplomacy. 2004. Vol. IX. No 2.
22
Ho J. The Advent of a New Way of War: Theory and Practice of Effects Based Operations
Singapore // Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies. Working Paper. 2003. December. No 57.
P. 23.
23
Ibid. P. 6.
24
. : Clausewitz K. von. War, Power and Politics / Translated
and edited with an introduction by Edward Collins. Chicago: Henry Regnery Company, 1968.
. . .
25
Meigs M. C. Unorthodox Thoughts about Asymmetric Warfare. Parameters. 2003.
Summer. P. 6.
26
OBrien D. and Nusbaum S. Intelligence Gathering on Asymmetric threats // Janes
Intelligence Review. 2000. October. P. 52.
27
Freedman L. The Future of Military Strategy // Brasseys Defence Yearbook 1996.
Brasseys, 1996. P. 7.
28
,

, .
29
Nye J. S. Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. New York: Public Affairs, 2004.

235

30
Kalyanaraman S. Conceptualization of Guerrilla Warfare // Strategic Analysis: A Monthly
Journal of the IDSA. 2003. AprilJune. Vol. XXVII. No 2.
31
Worley R. D. Waging Ancient War: Limits on Preemptive Force / US Army War College,
Strategic Studies Institute, 2003. February. P. 1.
32
Donnelly T. The Meaning of Operation Iraqi Freedom. National Security Outlooks. Amer
ican Enterprise / Institute for Public Policy Research, 2003. June.
33
.: Byman D. Constructing a Democratic Iraq: Challenges and Opportunities //
International Security. 2003. Vol. 28. Issue 1.
34
.: . .  :
? // . 2004. 3.
. 6470.
35
. . // 
. 2004. 3. . 73.

236

II



12.

13.
14.
15.

16.

237

238

12



2000 
. , 
. 
, 
,
.
, 
 1990 2000
.

20082009 , .
, , 
, 
. ,
, ,

. 
, 2000 ,
. 
, , 
( 
) .

2000-

.
, 
. 
239

II.

, 
. 

.
. (
,  )  
( , 
). 

. 
, , ,
, . 
,
Greater Central Asia.

. ( 
)
, .
, .
( ), 
, :
(Greater Western Asia). 
, , .
. ,
, , . 
().
. ,

. . (
) .
( ) , 
.
. , 
. , 
.
,
, 
.

.
. ,
240

12. ...

,
. .
, 
(, ) 
.
1990 , (
) , 
, 
. 2000 
, 
 , ,
, ?
.
,

, .

. 
.
XXI 1990 .
2001
. 
( 
) ,

.
, 

,  


. 

.




,

241

II.


.

2000
. 
( ,
) () 


, 
.
, 

. 
, , , 

, , 
, , 

. , ,
.
 
, ,
.
: , , 
.
, 
, .
.
. 

,
,
, 
,
.

.
, ,  
. (
)
242

12. ...

, 
(
).

, ,
(, , , , ) 

, 
. , . 
. 
, ,

, 
.
,  

 ,  

. , . ,

. ( ) 
, .

, 
(, , , , ).
,
, , 
. , 
. 
,
, 

( ). 


, .
2001 
, 
. . 
,

243

II.

. , .
:
, 
, .
, ,
 , , ,

. 
,

, .




2000 .

, : 
,  . , 2008


 . ,
, ,
.
: 
? . ,
, .

, . 
, , 
, . ,

.
,
, . 
.
.
1914 , 
2000 . , ,
,
244

12. ...

. 
.

. 
, , , , ,

.
. 1986
1987 . . , 
, 
. ,
,
.
.

, 
. .
,

. , 
, 

. 
, , , 
.
, , . ,
, . 

2008 ,
, , 
. . .
 


. (
) , .

.
.


245

II.


.
.
, 1980
1990 ,
, . .
2000
.

1990 
, .


.
, 
2000 , 

.
2001 ,
 


. 
,

2003 ,
.
( 1995 
) 
.
( ) . 

. , 

, . ,
.

, 
, , . 
,
. , . , . . . . 
246

12. ...

. . 
 
,

. 

. .
1960 . , ,
. . , ,
1.
. , , . 
: ,
. , 
, , , 
. , : 
, .
1962
. ,

2008 , .
,
, 
. , 

. , ,

( 
) .

. , 
, . ,
2, , 

, 
.
.
, 


. 2000

247

II.

, 
.

(2003), (
) , 
, 2008 .

, .
2008 

.

3. 2009 

2009 
, .
, .

,
,
, 
. ,
.
,
. 2000 , 
,

XIX 1815 
. , , , 
, . 

4,

.
: ,


,
248

12. ...

. . 5, ,
.
. , 
1991 
, ( ) 

. , , .
10 1992

1993
2003 . 
( 
) . .
1991 . . 1992
.

,
(
), 
( 
). 2005 
.
2008 
.

.


,
 ,
, , , 
. 
, 
.
, 
,
, 
, .


.
249

II.


. 
,
, ,
, 
. 
,

.
, 
, 
. 

.

, 
.
, 
, , 
.

, 
, , 
,

.

,
. 
 
. , ,

, , .
. 
,
,
.
, 

. ,
.
250

12. ...

, , . 


, 
.

.
. . .
, . . 

.




, 
 . 2008 
20

. , 

, 
. .

, 
,
.
, , , 
, ,
,
.

, 1945 . 
. ,
, . 1990 
. . ,

. 
,
, , ,
251

II.

, 
 ,
, 
.
.
. , . , ,
, . 
. : , 
(laissezfaire) ,
.

. 
, ,
. .  
, .

. . 
,
, .
2000 ,
, 
. 
, , 
. 

, .



. 
, 

.
, 

.
2007 
. ,


. 
252

12. ...

, 

6. 
.
, ,
, , ,
, 

. 
. .
. ,
, 
,
. 
, .
. ,
, 
, 
, . 
? . 

, 
. , 

, 

.
.
, .
:
,
 ( ) ( ).
,
. ,
. . 
, .

 .
. ,
. ,
.
253

II.


, , . 
 
,
,
.

. 
, , . 


. 
.

, .
, . 
, 
. 
 ,
. . 
, ,

, 
.


, 

.

. ,
,
. 
2008 ,
, 
, 
.
. 

, 
,
254

12. ...

, .

, .
, , :
.
() , 
.

. 
,
,
.
, , .
. 
, 
, . 

.
. :

 


.
,
,
. . ,


.

. , 

. .
,
2003 
. , , 
.
, 
, , .
255

II.

, . 
. , , 
.
, 
. .
,
,
. 
 , , ,
, , , 
. , 
,
. ,  
.
,
. , , . .
, 
. , , 

. . , 

.
,  
, . ,


 .

. 
. 
, .
.

.

. . 
,
.
 , 
1957 
256

12. ...

, 
.
19601970 ,
. :
,

,  
. 

.

. 
. 2

,
1975 ,
.

( ,
)
, .
,


. 1970
, .

.


.

, 
, , ,
.

.
, 
, , .
, 
.
257


1
. : . . 
// . .:
, 2002. . 161164. . [ ].
: http://www.obraforum.ru.
2
. // . 2003.
2; Ikenberry G. J. After Victory. Institutions, Strategic Restraints, and the Rebuilding of Order
After Major Wars. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001.
3

, 2008 . :
, .
4

1980 
. 
.
. . .
.
5
Kennedy P. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. Economic Change and Military Conflict
from 1500 to 2000. New York: Random House, 1987; Volgy Th. J., Bailin A. International Politics
and State Strength. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2003.
6
President George W. Bush. State of the Union 2007. Washington, D.C. 2007. January 23.
[ ]. : http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/ 2007/
01/200701232.html.

258

13


2007
.
. 
, , 
. 2008 
, 
30
. 
.
2009 
, .
,
, .

: . 

, .

2000-
, , 
40 .
, 
. XXI
85% . 2000
.

,
. 

. 
259

II.

, , 
, . 

, .
,

. 
. 

, 2000
. 


.
2000 
.
. 2000 2007 
31,4 37,2%.
. , , 
( ) 
. , ,
.

, 
, , ( ). 20002008
, 70%. 
, 
() 2007 ,
, .
,  ,
, 
.

. ,
. 

.
,

. .

.
260

13.


(), 
, .
, ,
 .

. 

. 2006 500 
20 (, , , ),
2008 62. 
.
2000 
.

. (
) 
,
.
, , , , , ,
. 
, , ,
, , .

62,3% 2000 55,4% 2007
. 2000

. ,
, 
, , 
. 
70% 
.
2000 
, .

, . 2004 15 25,
2007 27. 
. 1999 , 
. 2002 

261

II.

.
2009 16 . 10
, , .

1999 , 2000 
. 

. 2000 2007 
6,3 7,3%.
,
1980 .

. 
. 
.
1990 2006 61,4 67,0%1. 

.
. .
,
, . 
, 
, 
, .

, , , , 
, ,
. .

.

,
 , 
. , 
. 
, .
. 
, 
, .

.
262

13.

, 
.
, 

, . , 
.
.

. , ,
, 
.

, 
,
, 
,
, .
,
; ,
.

, 
. , 
, , 
, .

,
, , , ,
, 2.

.
33,1 29,1%. 
.
, . 
, 
, 
, . 
. ,
.
,
263

II.

. 
. , 
, 
.
.
. 
, , ,
,
, 


3. , 

. , , 

, .
 
19801990 ,
, 
.
, 
, 4.

.

. 
.
, ,
. 
. 
, 
, 
.
.


, , 
, 
, 
.
264

13.

19902008 1,6
5. 
. 1990 2006
20,2 30,8%. 
.

. 
 
.


.
, (, , ,
), ,
, ,
.

. ,
. 
. 
. 
, 

.

. , ,
, , , 120 1990
191 . 2005 . 8% 
.


, . 

.
2007 ()
1,8 .

. 1990
4% ,
2007 15%. 

265

II.

. 
, , 
6.

, ,
, ( 1 .).
,
, 
. 2007 
1,6 . 21% , 2000 .

. 
.

.
2007 79 . 
. 790 . . 1990 
2007 82 .
1990 7%
, 2007 11%. 2007 
.
, 
,  

.

.

. , 

, 

 .


. , ,
.
.
2007
65,1 ., 
78,8 .
266

13.

. 2007 
84,8 . 

. C 1990 2007
1,5 . 79,8 .

,
. 

7. ,

. 
1,8 . 2001 4,4 . 2007 .

,

. 2007 
47 ,
3,9 . 2/3
, ,

.
2000 
:
.

300.

, , 
, 

.
. 

.
,


.
.
, 
267

II.

, 32,4% 1990 43% 2007. 


,
. , 
, .

XXI , .


. , 
. , 
,
. ,
. 
, 
. 
.

.

. 
 ,
, 
.
19971998
2001 , 
, 
.

. 

, 
.
. 
, , 
, . 
,
, .
, 
, 
.

268

13.

. 

. ,
,
8.
. 
.

(). 2000 ,
, , 
.
, .
, , 
.


. 
, ,
, 
, 
. .

,
, . 
2007 .

. 
. 
. 
. .
, 
.
.


, . 

. 

, .
,
269

II.

. 
, 

. , 

. , 
,
. , 
.



() , 
.
2007
596 ., 11
. ,
. 
, 

.  
. , .

, . 

, 
. 

.

,  ( 2007 
10,1 .), 
. , , 
.


C 2007 , 
2008 
. 3,4%
2008 5,2% 2007.
270

13.


, 
. 
. .
2009
3 . ,
,
,
, .
,
, , 
.
,
(decoupling) .
,
,
. 
. ,
, .
.
2008
50 . 28,7 .
40% . 
3035%, 6070%9. 2010

4,1 ., 6% .
2008 . 

.

. ,

,
, , 
, .
, 
. 
.

,
.
271

II.


. , 
. , 
. .
,

. 2007 
7,2%, 2008 4,1%.
, 
, 
. ,

.
2008
21% 1,4 . ,
.
.

927 466 .
, 
. , 
, 
:
, , 
, ,
.
. 
, ,
, ,
, .

.
. 

. 

, 
( ).
, 

, 
272

13.

. 
. . 2009 
40% 
2008 . 
,

. 
, .

-

. 
,
.
, .
1990 
, 2000
. 

, . ,
(, ), 
, , 
, 
. 
,
, . , 

, . 

() . 2008 2 .

, . 

1% , 
.
, 
. 

, 
.
273

II.


, XXI
.
20% , 
35%. 2005 
. 2008
4,5% . 
, , 
.
2000 2008 ,  ,
5,7 ., 40%
2007 . 
.
, 

, ,
, .
,
,
, , , 
.

,  
. 
.

. ,
, ( 
) . 

. ,

. ,
.
,
. ,
, , , 
, 
. ,
. , , 

274

13.

. 
.
10.

, 
, 
. , 
, .
.
, 
, ,
. 

, . 
,
, 
. 
, 
.
, 
. 
.
.
,
. 

 
.
,
,

,
. , 
.

,
; .
, , 
.
. 

275

II.

. , 
,
,
, , , 
, .
,

, 
.


, 

, . 

.
.

. 20 (
2009 )
,
.

, .
,
, ,
. 
, 
, 2009 ,
 , 
, .

, .

. 
. 
, .
, 
,
, 
.
276

13.



. 

. 

.

20.
.
, ,
.
. 
,
 . 
. 
, , .
.
,
, 
.
.
,

.  

.

, .
,
, , 
, ,
.
, ,

.
.
.
,
,
.
277

II.

, ,
, 
. 

.
,

. , 
.

,
.
.
,
.

1
UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2008. United Nations. New York and Geneva. 2008.
P. 408, 430.
2
. 2009. 19 . . 76.
3
. . : . .: 
, 2009. . 4.
4
. . .: , 2009. . 152.
5
WTO. International Trade Statistics 2008. Geneva. P. 7.
6
UNCTAD World Investment Report 2008. Transnational Corporations and the
Infrastructure Challenge. United Nations. New York and Geneva. 2008. P. 10.
7
. . // .
2020 . .: , 2007. . 36, 37.
8
. : . .: , 2009. . 8.
9
International Monetary Fund. Global Economic Outlook Update. 2009. January 28;
Economist. 2009. January 31.
10
. 2008. 2 . . 66.

278

14




, . 

.

. 

. 
, 
. 

().



, . 1. , , 
(special purpose vehicles),
,
, 
. ,
()
(special purpose vehicle) , 
.
. 
(subprime mortgage credits) 20052006 
1,3 ., 10% .
75%
.
279

II.

, 
( 
, 
1). 
( )
,
( , 
, 
) , 
, 
.

(credit default swap CDS),

. subprime
mortgage credits ollaterized debt
obligations (CDO), 
, .,

, ,
. , 
, , 
, . ,
, .
2007
.................................................. 21,3% (13 811 .)
......................................... 13,2 % (11 194 .)
............................................. 30,6% (19 922 .)
................ 37,4% (29 879 .)

, ............................. 40,0% (240 000 .)
.... 50,8% (42 814 .)
: IMF Global Financial Stability Report. 2008. October; IS Quarterly Review. 2008.
September.

, 
, . ,
, 
, ,
280

14.


.

, .
. , 

2. 
, , 
, , : , .
,
: ,
.



( ) . 
(), , 
, .
, 
, ,

. ,
, 

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac3.

, , 
, 
.
.
, 

. , 

 , 
4.
( ) 1%
2004 5,25% 2006 , 
( )
.

281

II.

, 
.
.
2007 ,

, .
2008 1,4 . 
. 600 . 
(),
10 .
. 2008 
(Lehman Brothers), (Bear Stearns)
(Merrill Lynch) .

.
, ,

. 
, 
.
 
2008
, . 
. . 

, ,
6,36,5% 2008 . ,
, , 
.



(), 
III 2008 II 2009 .
III 2009 .
IV 
. ,
2008 , , 
, 2008 2009
, . ,
282

14.

2009 ,
2009 .
1
: 2008 2009 , %

2008 .

2009 .

2008 .

2009 .


2008 .


2009 .

1,4

0,2 +1,1

2,83,1

1,32,0

6,36,5

7,17,6

1,4

0,7

3,6

1,4

5,7

...

1,4

0,9

4,3

1,6

5,8

7,3


,
Fannie Mae Freddie Mac
AIG, 
. ,
2009 0%.
(Troubled Assets
Relief Program),
700 . .
290 ., 
250 40 
AIG.
. , 
, , : 
,

. 2008 
800 . (600 .,
mortgage backed securities 500 .),
(200 .).
.

1 . 
, , .
, 2011 3
.
,
, , 200 . . .
283

II.

,

( 
) .
10 
, 72% 2007 .

: ,
2,9% 2007 5,3% 2008 ,
, 20092010 6,76,8%.
,
, ,
, 3,6% 2008 1,21,3% .
, , ,
, ,
2008 .

. 
, 
, , . ,

. , 
.

, ,
19902002 . 


, . 
. ,
, 
, .

2008 (General
Motors) (Chrysler) 17,5 .


. , 

(. 2).
284

285

8,0

2,5

./
Urals:



./
:

69,3

71,1

7,9

2,6

2,6

74,5

68,0

4,5

0,1

5,1

0,3

0,3

min
5568

75,9

6,2

2,1

1,5

2009 . 2010 .

99,6
min
(IV . 5060
54,8)

101,2

99,8

6,5

1,4

6,6

1,4

1,4

2007 . 2008 .

0,0

III
1,4

IV

2008 .

0,8

I
0,2

II
0,5

III

2009 .

1,1

IV

2008 20092010 , %

1,7

I
2,0

II

2,5

III

2010 .

2,7

IV

II.

, (
) , ,
2009 ,
, , .
.
(emerging markets)
(), ().

? ,
, , 
.

,
. ,
.
3

2001 .

2005 .

2007 .

2008 .
I .

2008 .
II .


(. /)

20,8

45,2

64,3

89,8

108,0


( .)

24,0

82,4

121,5

38,6

47,1

4

, %

2006 .

/ 

2007 .

2008 .

8,4

6,1

5,5 1,8

9,5

5,9

6,5

2009 .

2010 .

1,2
0,5

0,8


,
. 
286

14.

: (
), 
( 
) ,
.
2008 . 
, 
, 
. 

45 .
. ,
( ,  
1012% ), 
. , 


, , 
.
, 2009
90 ., ,

.

:
108 . 2005 527 2008
(, 22% ). 
107 .
2008 , 2009 121 . 
, 

( 
2008 160 ., 
), .

.
, ,

.

3 .
287

II.

, 
2009 , 
, 2008 (5,8%).

, 
. ,
, 
,
, .

.
, .
.
,
. 
, 
, .

 . 2007
( 
) 19%. ,

:
10%, 9%, 
5%.
18%, , 
.

,
.
74% 
19861990 , 52%, 49%
2007 1989 , 
7%, 0,5%, 
.

, 

. , 

, , .
288

14.


, , .
2007 
25% ( 136%, 96%, 63%).


.
, 
. 2008 
() 598 .,
2008 (438 .), .
, , 
:
,
,
, 
.

50 . .
9 .,
20,5% 2009 .
:

;

( 
, , 
). 24 20%, 
,
15 5%. 
2009 ,
. 
, 300 
.
.
2008 
,
.

289

II.

(, , , 
Urals
60 .): 2009 67%.
28% 
.

, 
, , 
,
. 


. ,

, 

, .
,

, 
( 2008 2008
25% 13% )  .
13% 
, 
. 
.
,
. , , 
, 
, 
.
,


, 
.

,
, , , .
290

14.

5
: 2008 20092010 , %

2007 .

2008 .

2009 .

2010 .

2011 .

2012 .

5,0

5,7

6,1

8,1

7,0

5,8

5,8

:
1
(50 . Urals)

0,5

2
(60 . Urals)

0,51,0

( 
. )

2,4

8,1

6,6

2,9

8,1

6,5

2,3

8,1

6,8

3,5

8,1

6,0

3,0

11,9

13,4

1012

11,9

13,9

10,9

9,4

11,9

13,6

7,5

6,5

11,9

13,5

min 12

6,8

6,1

6,1

6,1

5,9

6,5




( )

24,9

30,8
31,8



, ,
, .
, 

2008 ,
,
, 
291

II.

. , 
.
,
, ,
2009 .
, , , 
,
.
,

.

1
. : . . 
. ., 2009. . 248.
2
. : Plan C // The Economist. 2008. November 29th December 5th. P. 70.
3
Taming the Beast // The Economist. 2008. October 11th17th. P. 10.
4
. 2008: // . 2008.
11. . 28.

292

15



()1. , 
, 
.
2.

(nonproliferation) 
(nonproliferation strategy). 
 

, 3.
. , , 

.

, 
  (
, , , , ). 
(1981)
,
( . )
( 1969 ) 4.

(counterproliferation strategy)5.
. 

() 

293

II.

. 
, (
, , , ) 6.

, , 
, 
. 

 7. 


().




1990 . 
20022005
. 
. 
.

 
.

(Air Force Counterproliferation Center) 
(National Defense University)8. 

9.

10.

. 
, 11.
, , 
, , 
, 
.
, 

294

15.

12. 
(preemptive) ( , 
, ) 
(preventive),
13.
(arms control) 
, , 
.

.
, 
, 1960 
.

, 


14. 
. , , XIX ,

.
15.
, 
(1)
(2) 
.

.
, 

/ .


1990 . 
(1991)
, 
.
1992 
(Defense Science Board Study) 
. 
(counter
295

II.

WMD proliferation). 7 1993 




(Defense
Counterproliferation Initiative)16. 18 1993 
. 18 (PDD/NSC 18) 
.
1990 1993
. 30 1994
(Nuclear
Proliferation Prevention Act). , 
,

. 1996 . 

(Counterproliferation Council) 
(Department of Defense Counterproliferation).
1997 . 60
(PDD 60), 
17. 720
1998 

.

20022003 . 
(
2002 )
( 2002 )18 
:
1) (counterproliferation),

;
2) (nonproliferation)
, 
, ;
3) (consequence
management), 


.
296

15.

. (20012004) 

. 
, 
, 
19. 

. ,

 
20.
2004 .
11 2004 . 



21. 15 2004 
(weapons
security), (site security) 
(fissile material security). 6 2006
(The Global
Nuclear Energy Partnership). , 
( 2006 )22

:
1) 
;
2)
( ) ;
3)
;
4) 
;
5) 
.
,

, , 
, , 
, .
297

II.


1990

.
 23. 1974 

( ), 
24. 
1980 , 

. 1990

. 1991 

. 
, 
.

.

25. 
.
. 
.
. 1980

( )26. 
:
.
1991 
. 1995

, 30 1996 .

.

. 1970 
. 1989
, 
298

15.

. 17 1992 

.

1,5 . 1994
,
. 

.
20032004 
.

. : 
, ,
2003 
27. , 

 .
, 19 2003
28.
2004 .
1986 .


. 20022004 
.
,
1974 . , 
. , ,
, 
. , 
,
. 
,
. 
, 
(, ) 
.
2002 . 30 
2003
299

II.


1997 29. 15 2004

30. ,

, .

. 22
2004 ,
.

: ,
.
( 
) 
, 31.
2005
, 20032004 .
,

. 31 4
2005 . , 

32. 
22 2005
. 33. 2005
. , . , 

. 

,
34.
2005 
. 27 2005 

. 
28 2005 . ,

35. 3 2005

300

15.

. 
, .
. 26 2005 
. ,
. (
25 2005 
.) 3 2005
, 
, , 
. 8
2005 
.
/ .
4 2006 
, 
. 1 2006 
, 
. 22 2006
,
. 
20062008 ( 1737, 1747,
1803), ,
. 

.
. 
. 27
2007
,

. ,

.

. 
,
. ,
, , ,

.
301

II.

. 
.






(failing / failed states).
, , 
,
, ( 
, , , 
) .
, , , 
.
2000 
,  1998 , 
. , ,
,
. 
( ) ( )
.
, , ,
. 

, .


.
,
20012002 
. 

. 
(
 ) .

, 
302

15.

. 
( 
, )36 , 
37. 
.
38.
. 
2000 .
(National Command Authority NCA), 
, 
. .
NCA PAL (Permissive Action
Links), 

. . 
, , 
39.


. 2001 
.
. 
. 
(1) , 

, (2) ,


40. . 
. . ,

41.
2004
. 
,
42. 
2004 ,

. 2004 
Major NonNATO Ally43.
303

II.


(31 2004 ) (2829
2004 ). , 22 2004
 , 

44.
, 14 2006

. . 4 2006

, 
, 

. 

. 2007

45. 
.

. . 3 2007 
.

, .
. 27 2007 
. 15 2008 

. 
18 2008 .
.

 . 23
2008

. 2008 

. 2629
2008 , 
, . 2009

. 
304

15.

, , 
.

. 
.
2000 
. 

, 
, ,
( ) 
.



. 
,
. 

. 
, 
.
. 
1991 


. 

. 3 1991
, 
.

. 1990
 ,
.
,
. 
.

(
305

II.

1998 ),
.
, .
(
2003 ). 
, , . 

.
, (
2003 ) 
. 
. 
. 


.
46. 30
1992 .
1992 
.
, 
47.
, , ,
. 25 1993

.
12 1993 .
1993

. 
, . 15 1994

. 2
1994 
, ,
48. .
.
. 21
1994

306

15.

49. ,

.
, 
, 
. 
9 1995
( ).
. 

. 29
2002 .
,
. 
,
, 
. 
.
2003
, 
. 
,
,
, .


50. 
, ( ) ,
, ,
/ 51.
19 2005 
, 

.

52.
 
, 10 2005
. 23 2005
. 5 2006 
307

II.

,
1999 . 9 2006 
. 

. 14 2006 
1718, .
. 12 2007 

,

. 2007
25 ., 2005 .
: 
. 2007 
, 
. 12 2008 
.

. 5
2009 ,
. 14 
2009 
. 25 2009 
,
.

.
, 
, . 
1994 ,

. , VII
( 2005 ) 
, 53. 


. 
.

. , ,
308

15.

, 
. 
, 
.

.


,
, 

. 
( )
54.
2004 2009
14 69 . , 1981 . 

.

, , , 
, , , (Cameco), (Cogema),
(ERA), (WMC), 
, 
. 
, ,
. 

.
20032006 .
,
.
, 
(Shenyang Aircraft Corporation), 
(Elektronik Kontrol Aletleri),
(Urenco), . ,
2004  
(SMB Computers) 
309

II.

55. 
(Epson), (Palm), (Acer) (Samsung). 
, 2005 
(Rossing
Uranium Limited) . , 15% 56.
 
 (Rio Tinto), 

.


57.

2004 , , 
, 
,
.

, 58.

,

.
,
. 
1995

, 
, ,
. ,
, . 

, 
, . 
, .

.
.
(proliferation networks),
, (
310

15.

)
. 
. 2005 


59.

.
, (, , 
) .
,
. ,
.
. 

. ,

, 
, ,

.

.
( , ) 
. 
, , , 
. ,
2001 ,
. , 
50%
90% ( , , 

). 
, 
60.

.


. 31 2003 
311

II.


(Proliferation Security Initiative ). 

. 

.

.


. 

.

(
) . 
, , 
. 
, 
,
, ,

.
, 
.

1
., : Levi M. A., OHanelon M. The Future of Arms Control. Washington:
Brookings Institution Press, 2005; Braun Ch., Chyba Ch. F. Proliferation Rings: New Challenges
to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime // International Security. 2004. Vol. 29. No 2. P. 549;
Perkovich G. Bushs Nuclear Revolution. A Regime Change in Nonproliferation // Foreign Affairs.
2003. P. 28; . . XXI (, ,
). .: , 2003; /
. . , . . .: , 2005.
2
nuclear
nonproliferation, 
, 
. , 
.
3
.: Levite A. E. Never Say, Never Again: Nuclear Reversal Revisited // International
Security. 20022003. Winter. Vol. 27. No 3. P. 5988.
4
. 19182003: 4 . / . .
. . . . . .: , 2003. . 334335.

312

5
. : . . 
. .:  , 2007.
6
International Counterproliferation Program. : http://www.nti.org; Fein
stain L., Slaughter A.M. A Duty to Prevent // Foreign Affairs. 2004. Vol. 84. No 1. P. 136150.
7
.: Deutch J. A Nuclear Posture for Today // Foreign Affairs. 2005. Vol. 84. No 1. P. 4960.
8
.: The Origin of U.S. Counterproliferation Policy. Air Force Counterproliferation Center.
[ ]. : http://www.au.af.mil; Ellis J. D. The Best Defense:
Counterproliferation and U.S. National Security // The Washington Quarterly. 2003. Vol. 26.
No 2. P. 115133.
9
McColl A. Is Counterproliferation Compatible with Nonproliferation? Rethinking the
Defense Counterproliferation Initiative // Aerospace Power Journal. 1997. Spring. [
]. : http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil; Roberts B. Proliferation
and Nonproliferation in the 1990s: Looking for the Right Lessons // Nonproliferation Review.
Vol. 6. No. 4 (Fall 1999). P. 7082.
10
Albright D. Preventing Illegal Exports: Learning from Case Studies. [ ].
: http://www.isisonline.org; Etzioni A. Enforcing Nuclear Disarmament // National
Interest. 2004/2005. Winter. Issue 78. P. 8189.
11
Perkovich G., Methews J. T., Cirincione J., Goetemoeller R., Wolfstall J. B. Universal
Compliance. A Strategy for Nuclear Security / Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
2005. March. P. 7178.
12
Caldicott H. The New Nuclear Danger. New York; London: The New York Press, 2004.
13
.
1941  
, preemptive.
1961 
, (preventive)
. , ,
. ,
, ( )
.
, : (1)
(2) 
, 
.
14
Schlesinger A. M. War and the American Presidency. New York; London: W.W. Norton &
Company, 2004. P. 2129.
15
Allison G. T. Nuclear terrorism. The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe. New York Times
Book: Henry Holt and Company, 2004.
16
Counterproliferation Initiative Presidential Decision Directive PDD/NSC 18. December
1993. [ ]. : http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/pdd18.htm,
: 30.04.2006.
17
1997 60 (Presidential
Decision Directive 60) .
, , 

, 
, . ., : Smith J. Clinton
Directive Changes Strategy on Nuclear Arms // Washington Post. 1997. December 7.
18
The National Security Strategy of the United States of America. September 2002. [
]. : http://www.whitehouse.gov; National Strategy to Combat
Weapons of Mass Destruction. [ ]. : http://
www.whitehouse.gov. P. 45.
19
: Kelly H. C., Levi M. A. Nix the MiniNukes // The Christian Science Monitor. 2002.
March 28. [ ]. : http://www.csmonitor.com/:

313

Ferguson Ch. D. MiniNuclear Weapons and the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review. [
]. : http://www.cns.miis.edu.
20
Glaser Ch. L., Fetter S. National Missile Defense and the Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons
Policy // International Security. 2001. Vol. 26. No 1. P. 4092.
21
President Announces New Measures to Counter the Threat of WMD [ 
]. : http://www.whitehouse.gov.
22
.: National Security Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction. 2006. February
16. [ ]. : http://politiqueetrangereusa.typepad.com.
23
Sagan S. Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? // International Security. 1996/1997.
Winter. Vol. 21. No 3. P. 5486; Liberman P. The Rise and Fall of the South African Bomb //
International Security. 2001. Fall. Vol. 26. No 2. P. 4586.
24
1977 
. 1980 , , 
, , , 
. .: / . . . . M.: ,
2002. . I. C. 256; T. II. C. 6.
25
, 
.
18 1991 
. , , 
()
().
26
Cirincione J., Wolfstal J. B., Raykmar M. Deadly Arsenals. Washington: Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, 2002. P. 299300.
27
.: Black C. R. Deterring Libya: The Strategic Culture of Muammar Quaddafi. [
]. : http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cpcpubs/black.htm,
: 01.04.2006.
28
.: 2004: , 
. .: , 2005. . 673675.
29
1997 
[...] 
.
30
Communication dated 26 November 2004 received from the Permanent Representatives of
France, Germany, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United Kingdom concerning the agreement
signed in Paris on 15 November 2004. [ ]. : http://
www.iaea.org.
31
., : Venter A. J. Irans Nuclear option. Tehrans Quest for the Atom Bomb.
Rhiladelphia: Casemate, 2005.
32
Secretary Condoleezza Rice. Remarks With German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder After
Meeting. 31 January 2005. [ ]. : http://www.state.gov.
33
President Meets with E.U. Leaders. Brussels. 2005. February 22. [ ].
: http://www.whitehouse.gov.
34
Press Briefing by Scott McClellan. 2005. March 3. [ ].
: http://www.whitehouse.gov; Secretary Condoleezza Rice. U.S. Support for the EU. 2005.
March 11. [ ]. : http://www.state.gov.
35
. .
. . , 2005. 28 .
[ ]. : http://www.ln.mid.ru.
36

, 
. 
. 1990

314

, . 2004 
,
.
37
., : Pakistans Nuclear Proliferation Activities and the Recommendations
of the 9/11 Commission: U.S. Policy Constraints and Options // Congressional Research Service.
2005. January 25. [ ]. : http://www.fas.org.
38
.: Telli A. G. U.S. Strategy: Assisting Pakistan Transformation // The Washington
Quarterly. 2004/2005. Winter. Vol. 28. No 1. P. 97116; Kerr P. New Details Emerge on Pakistani
Networks // Arms Control Today. 2005. May. [ ]. : http://
www.nci.org.
39
. . ? //
International Politik. 2004. No 5. P. 103104.
40
.: Albright D. Securing Pakistans Nuclear Weapons Complex. Washington:
Institute for Science and International Security, 2001.
41
Are Pakistans Nuclear Weapons Now Under US Control? // The Hindustan Times,
30.09.2002.
42
Powell N. J. Ambassador to Pakistan. U.S. Foreign Policy Towards Pakistan. 2004. August 20.
[ ]. : http://www.state.gov; Secretary Colin L. Powell.
Interview With the USA Today Editorial Board. October 18, 2004. [ ].
: http://www.state.gov.
43
Pakistans Nuclear Proliferation Activities and the Recommendations of the 9/11 Com
mission: U.S. Policy Constraints and Options. 2005. January 25 // Congressional Research Serv
ice. 2005. January 25. P. 2930. [ ]. : http://www.fas.org.
44
U.S. Forces Kill Four in Afghanistan; Bush Defends Pakistans Efforts in Terror War . Fox
News Chanel, Official Site. [ ]. : http://www.foxnews.com.
45
. . // . 2007. . 5.
4. . [ ]. : http://www.globalaffairs.ru/
numbers/27/8083.html.
46
. 
: North Korea and Iran: Test Cases for an Improved Nonproliferation Regime? // [
]. : http://www.armscontrol.org; North Koreas Military
Strategy // Homer Hodge, Parameters. (Spring 2003) P. 6881. [ ]. 
: http://www.nautilus.org; ., .
: . .: , 
, 2005.
47
.: ., ., . ?
// . 2003.
47.
48
Safeguards Inspections in the DPRK. IAEA Press Release 94/25. 1994. June 13. [
]. : http://www.fas.org.
49
.: . 1994. .
. 5. . 3941.
50
20022003 .:
Nowowiejski D., Tamotsu Nakano T., Bus R. Crisis on the Korean Peninsula // Brookings Northiest
Asia Survey. 20022003. P. 117.
51
.: Harrison S. S. Did North Korea Cheat? // Foreign Affairs. 2005. Vol. 84. No 1. P. 99
110; Haas R. N. Regime Change and Its Limits // Foreign Affairs. 2005. Vol. 84. No 4. P. 6678.
52
.: . // . 2005.
32.
53
. [ ].
: http://russianboston.com.
54
., : Energy Security. Toward a New Foreign Policy Strategy / Jan H. Kalicki
and David L. Goldman (eds.). Washington; Baltimore: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, The John

315

Hopkins University Press, 2005. C. 


. [ ]. : http://www.oxfordenergy.org/
. [ ]. : http://www.rand.org/.
55
.: SMB
. [ ]. : http://
www.centralasia.ru.
56
15% . [ ].
: http://iran.ru.
57
.: Leventhal P. L. A Pox on Mox // Bulletin of
the Atomic Scientists. 1998. March/April. [ ]. : http://
www.nci.org/.
58
 / . . , . 
. .: , 2005. . 22.
59
Vedabtam S. Storage of Nuclear Spent Fuel Criticized // The Washington Post. 2005.
March 28.
60
.
. [ ]. : http://www.worldnuclear.org.

316

16



,
I .
,
,  .

, .
,
. , 
, , 
, 
.


. 
.

1970 
. , 
, 
.
, 
, . 
, , , 
, , 
(),
.
.
317

II.

, , 
. 
, 
.


,
12,5%
. .

(, , , , )
. ,
20 . 1973
400 . , 
.
19701980
. 1983 
115 , 1999 
137,4 . ,
, .
2006 76,6 , 80%
, 1999 .

 , , 
, 
. , , 
, , ,
. 
, 
.
, 
, 19601970
, , 
. 
,
. 
()
(Fatih Birol), 20% 
(20 .), 
1.
. 
, , 
318

16.


. 
. 
.
, 
.

.
,
. . 
, , 
. 

. 
. 
.

. () 
.

. .
 
, 
.
.
,
, 
, 
,
.


, 
, .


. 

. 
: 
() () , .
319

II.

, 

.

. 
,
, , ,
, .

, 
.
. 
, . 
, , 
,
,
: .
: ,
.

.
. 

. , 
( )
, .
2006

. Nabucco,
.
, 
, 
. (
, ), 
, ,
.
: 
,
. 
.

.
320

16.

,

.

. ,
, 2003 ,


. , 
,

. ,

, , , 
.

. Le
Nouvel Economiste,
: ,
, . 
,

2.

. 
, ,

,
. 1996
,
20 . ,

.

.


,
(majors) .
321

II.

XXI .
, 
, . , 
,

( 19802000
) 3.
Financial Times, 
, ,
, . 
Saudi Aramco , 
, (China
National Petroleum Corporation, CNPC), 
(National Iranian Oil Company, NIOC),
PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela S.A.), Petrobras 
Petronas. 
. 
10%
3% 4.
PFC
Energy (Robin West), 
, 
. ,

5. Corriere della Sera 
, Standard Oil 
, 6.
, 

. 
, ,
.
:
, 
. 
, 
.

,
?
322

16.


.
(),
, 70% 
,
8,4%.

, 

. 
,
( 
), : , , 
.
.
(Halliburton,
Schlumberger)
, , , 
. 

.
, ,

. 

.

. 
.
. , 
,

. , , 
, 
.
, 
.
,
. 
, 
, .
323

II.



: , , , 
. 
, 90% .
(,
) (, , ),
, .

(), 1973 
. 
2030 : , ,
11,4
13,5% 7. ,

,
.
.
, 1973 
:
46,2%, 24,4%, 16,0%, 1,8%, 
0,9%. . 
35%. 
6% 20,7%. 
: 25,3 2,2% 8.
, 2030
 
: 32 22% . 
46
40% 2005
9.
,
.
.
: 

,
, , 10.

, 
. ,
324

16.

2030 7%,
2005 24%. 
.
()
. . 2006 
(The Advanced Energy Initiative)

, , .

.

. 2006
2020 , 
.
1%
. 
. 2020 
40
4%.
1,8 11.
20 
, . 
, . ,
10 . 

, 
, ,
. , ,
, , 2025
62 ( 16), 
40 ( 7 ).

.
, .
, . 
, , 
.
, 
, 
. 
. 
325

II.

, .

. , 2006

.
100 .
.
, 
, , 
. . 

. ,
,
2012 12.
, ,
, 
2030 50%. 2030 
, , 3550%13. 
, 
, .

19731974 
, 

, 
.
( ), 
( ) . 
: 
, 
, 

14.
: 
,
.
, 
,
.

. , 
326

16.

, 1970 ,
, . 

,
. ,

, , 15.

.
2005
 ,

, 
16. 
, 
, 
 17.

. 

, 
18.

( 2006 )
. , 
, ,

.
 
, 
.
, ,
( ) .
, 
,
. , , ,
. 
(,
), . 
,
. , 
327

II.


19.
.

. , 

,
.
, 
.

,
.
, , 

. , 
.
. 
, .

, 
. 
 
, 
,
.

, 
, . 
Royal Dutch Shell , ,
2010 
( , ),
. , ,
, 
, 
20.


 ,
, .
328

16.


, , 
.
.

. 
; . : 
.

. . 
, 
. 

.
, 
. 

 .

1
. :
// The Financial Times. 2007. 12 .
2
.: Landrot A. Les Russes rois du petrole// Le Nouvel Economiste. 2002. April 5.
3
1970 
: Exxon Corporation, Mobil Corporation , Royal Dutch/Shell, Chevron, Texaco
Incorporated , Gulf Oil Corporation, British Petroleum. 2000 
. Royal Dutch/Shell, BP, Exxon Mobil, Total S.A,
Chevron Texaco, Conoco Phillips ENI.
4
. . .
5
. : . . .
6
. :
// Corriere della Sera. 2007. 31 .
7
Key World Energy Statistics 2007// International Energy Agency. [ 
]. : www.iea.org.
8
Ibid.
9
Ibid.
10
National Energy Policy, Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group // US
Government Printing Office. Washington, 2001. May.
11
// .. 2006. 27 
. [ ]. : www.minatom.ru.
12
Fact Sheet: The Advanced Energy Initiative: Ensuring a Clean, Secure Energy Future.
2006. May 24. [ ]. : www.whitehouse.gov.
13
Key World Energy Statistics 2007.
14
. // 
. 2006. 1 ().

329

15

.
. : Speech by HE Sheikh Ahmad Fahad AlAhmad AlSabah. OPEC Conference
President & Minister of Energy for Kuwait. World Economic Forum. Davos (Switzerland) 2005.
January 2630. [ ]. : www.opec.org.
17
. : :
. // . 2006. 3 .
18
. :
16 2006 . , . [ ].
: www.g8russia.ru.
19
// , 
, , 2006. [ ]. 
: http://g8russia.ru/docs/11.html.
20
. : // . 2008. 29 .
16

330

III


17. -

18.
19. -

20.
21.
22.

23.

331

332

17

-


20  
,
, .

, 


  
. , , 
,
, 
1.
,
. 


, 
.



, .




, ,
333

III.

, ,
. 
,  
. 
, 
.
. , , 
, 
2.
()
, 
.

,
, , , 
, 
,
.




, 
, 
, 
.
, 
, . 
, 
,
, 
.

, , 

. , 
,
XIX , 
,
,
.
334

17. 


, , 

.
,  
 
, . 

, 
, 3.

, , 
4.
, , 
, ,
.
 , 
,
.
, 
.

,
.

, 
. 


 , 
5.
,
. , , , 

.
,
, , 
,
.
. , 
,
335

III.

. 
, 
,
, 
, .

,
,
6. 

,
. 
(,
) , 
, . ,
, 
. 
, , 
.

, 
, 
, 7. 

, 
, ,
,
, 8.

, ,
. 

, 9. 

,
,
, ,
, 10.


, ,
336

17. 

,
,
.

, 
.

, 
.
,
. 11.
,

. ,
,
, , ,
, , 
. 
, , 
12.

, 
, . 
,
, 
.
 ,

,
().

, 
.
, 
, 
.


, , 

13. , 
337

III.

, 

14.
, 
, 
. , , 
, 
, ,
15.

, 
,  
.

,
, 
, 
.
,
, , 
, 16.

, 
. , 
, 17.
, , 
.
, 
, 

, . 

,
, 
, .
.
( 
) , 


, 18.
,
338

17. 

. ,
, 
.
, 
. 
,
 .
,
,
, 19. 
, 
, 20. 

, ,

.
,
, ,

21. , 

22. , ,
, 
. , 
.

, , 
.
, 
, 
,
.
,
; 
.

, ,
.


, ,
339

III.

, . 
, 
. 
, .
,
, 
23.

, . , 
 , 
. 


.
,
,
, 

, . 
: 
, 
24. 
,
. 
, . , ,
25. 
, 
,
. 
[] 

...26. 
, ,
, 27. 
, 

28.

, ,
,
.
340

17. 

, 
, 
, , 
, 
, , .

, 
, 
,
29. , 
30,
, .
.

...

31. , 
. 
: 
,
. 
32. 

,
.



( , 
), . 


33. , , , 
, , 
, 
. ,
,
( , )34.


( ),
341

III.

. 
, 
.

35. ,
,
, ,
, .
, 

36,
. 
, 37.
, , 

, . 

, 38.
,
. ...
, , , 
39. 
40. 
, 
,
. 
,
,
, ,
, . 
, 
: , 41.

, ,
42.
,
.
, 


.
342

17. 

. 
, 
, , 

, .
, , 

, 
, 
43 .  ,
, 
, , 
,
.
,
, , , 
.
,
. , 
, 

,
.
XVIXVII
, 44. 

 
, 
. ,
, 
45. 

. 
, , , 
 .
. . , . . 
, , 
46.
,
, 
 , 
343

III.

, . 
, 
, 
,
. 

.
,

. 
, 
 , . 
47.
,

48. . . 
: 
,
. , 
, .
, , 
49. 
,
,
50. 
,

. 
:
, . , ,
.
,
51. .

. , 
, 

. 

, 
52.
344

17. 


,
,
, ,
. 
, , 

, . , ,
,
, .

, 
.  
,
. ,
,
.
, ,
,
.

 ,
, , 
,
53. , , ,
.

: . 
, 
, , 
.
, 
, , 
. 

, , .

, 
345

III.


54. 
, 
. ,
, , 
,
55. 
, 
, .
, ,
, , 
, 56. 
,
, 
. 
, 

. ( 
.)

,
, , 
. , 
,

. ,
, 
.
()
, . 

, 
, 
 .
, , 
, 
57.
, , , 
,
, 
, . 
346

17. 


,
. , ,

, , ,
58.
, 
, ,
, 59.

, ... , 
, ... ,
, , 
, . , , 
,
, .
(, 
), ,
, , 60.
( )
61,

,
62. 
,
. 
, 
, 63.

, , .
, 
64. 
, 
,
, 
.
, , 
, , ,
, ,

, 
347

III.

65.
 ,
. , , , 
, .

, 
, 
,
, 
, ,
, .

, ,
,
,
66.
 
 
, 67.
,
,
, 
, 
68.

 ,

.

, 
. 
, ,

, . 
, , 
,
. 
. 
, , 
, , 
.
348

17. 

,

. , 
,
. 

. , ,
,
. 
, 
.

. , 

. 
, , ,
. , 
, ,
.

. 

, ,
.

1
. Pro et Contra, .
(2000. . 5. 1). 
, ,
: , . ., 
: . . . ., 1997.
2
Kuhn T. The Structure of Scientific Revolution. 2nd ed. Chicago, 1970. P. 24.
, :
, . ., : Carr E. H. What is History. New York, 1961. P. 26.
3
.: . / .
. . . . ., 1984.
4

.
 
.
5
, 
:
, , 
, .

349

6
, , 
, 
XIX . XX 
, ,
. 

. : . . ., 1987. . 1.; .
. . ., 1938; .
. ., 1991; . , , XV
XVIII . ., 19871990. . 13; . . ., 1993 .
, . . 
(., 1924). 
. . . ( .) (., 1998); 
(. 1994. 1. C. 2938);
(., 1990). , 
.
,
, 
, 
. 
. , 
, ,

, .
7
,
, .
,  .
, . 

, 

.
, , 
,
.
8
,
, 
, .
9
, , ,
. , 
,
, , .
10
.: . . ., 1985. . 31.
11
. Crescit interea Roma Albae ruinis. . : . . 
. . , 1998. . 275.
12
, . , , 
, (). .: . :
. ., 1992. . 1. . 382.
13
 ,
, , . .: . 1999. 1.
. 187.
14
. . .. . 333, 354362.
15
. . ., 1985. . 241. 
.

350

16

.
17
. : . 1992. 3. . 89. 
, .
18

. ,
, , 
. , , 
.
19

.
20
,
. , 
. ,
,
, . , 
, , 
:
, . ,
() , 
, 
, . , 
, .
21
. . . . 342343. 
. 
. 
, ,
.
22
, 
( . // XIII
. ., 1970. . 34). ,
 , , 
. .
23
,
.
24
. (.: .
. ., 1991. . 35). , , 

, . 
(64 ), 
,
. .: . //
IX 
. ., 2004. . 148152.
25

, 
. , , 
, 
. , 
, , 
, , , .
26
Kleinman A. Somatization: the interconnections in Chinese society among culture,
depressive experiences, and the meanings of pain // Culture and Depression / A. Kleinman and
B. Good (eds). Berkeley, 1985. . 468469.

351

27
, , 
, ..
, ,
, , ,
.
28
,
, . .: . . 
XVII XX . // . . 2. (.) .:
, 1991. . 69.
29
, , 
, . 
() , 
, , 
.
, . ,
, 
, , 
. , , 
, . 
,
, 
, ,
, .
30
,
, . ., :
. . ., 1992. . 1, . 3; . 2, . 11; .
. . 221.
31
. ., 1975. . 393.
.
. 
, , ,
, . 

.
32
, 
. , ,
, , , .

, .
33
,
,
( .  . 19271949. ., 1977.
. 9).
, , 
( . : //
. 1996. 6. . 9899.)
34
, 
, , . 
.
35
, 
, .

. , 
.

352

36
, ,
, , , 
, ..
37
, , 
, 
, , , .
38
,
.
, 
. .: . 1994. 2. . 29; 1992. 6. . 4. ,
. , , , 
. , , 
, 
. ,
, ,
,  . .: . 
? // . ., 1994. . 4143.
, 
,
, , , .
39
. . . 
. , 1998. . 279 ( , . 2, . 5).
. ,
, . 
. (. . . 199200).
40

, (
. . 391).
41
. // . 1990. 4. . 137.
42
, , , .
43

( . . ., 1970. . 1).
44
,
, 
, (). 

,  (Needham J. Time and Eastern Man //
Needham J. The Grand Titration. Science and Society in East and West. L., 1969. . 281). 
,
, , . 
, , .
45
. . . 2. . 19. 
, , 
. , 
, . .: . .
., 1994. . 141145. 
.
.
46
. .
/ , . . 
.
47
. . . 2. . 65.
48
. , 
, .

353


.
49
, ,
. .
50
.
51

,
. .: .
. ., 1970. . 1. XVIIXVIII 
, , , , 
(. ). , 
, . 
200 ,
.
52
. , .
. , 
, . 
XVXVIII . 
, . 
, , , , .
53
.:  . ., 1976. . 34.
54
, 
, , ,
. , ,
.
55

,
, . , , 
, .
56
.
, .

.
57
, , ,
, , 
.
58
, 
, 
, . ,
. 
, .
59
, .
, , 

, , , 
. 
, ,
.
60
. ., . . (
) // . ., 1974. . 472474.
61
, .
62
.
63
, 
. 

354

. . 

 , 
,
, .
64
, 
, . , 
, ,
, 
.
65

. 
. 
, 
.
66

, 
, . 
. .: .
// . 1989. 3; . . 
. ., 1989; . . 
// : , . .1. ., 1989; Parsons . The
System of Modern Societies. N.Y., 1971. . 2949. 
, .
67
. . . (  
). ., 1992. . 92.
68
,
, .

, , , ,
.

355

18


1946
(The
Long Telegram),

.

1947 
(The Sources of Soviet Conduct). 
:
, 
.
 
 
.
, , 

, , .
, 
, 
.



, ,
. , 
, ,
, . 

, , , : 
356

18.

, .
,
( ) 
. .


.
. 
. , , 
. ?
, ,
, .
. 
, 
, .
.
. ,

, 

. ? , 
, . 
. , 
, , ,
, , , , , ,
?
, 
,
, 

. .
, 
,
.
,
. , 

, , , .
, , , 
,

357

III.


.
.
. 
: . 

( ), 
:
. 
, ,
,
. :
, , ,
.
, .
, ,
.
()
. XVIII 
.
, 

(freedom).

(1960 ), 

.  (liberty)

, ,
freedom1.

.

, 
, . 
2000
. 
.
 
. 

358

18.

.


. 


.
, 
, . 
, , 

. , , 
,
, 
. ,
,
.
( ) 
.
.

. ,
. 


.
,

.
. 
, 
 .
, 
, 
 
. 
,
, .
. 

, 
359

III.

(, ).
, 
.
,  
.
, 
, .
. 
, , 
, , ,
, .

, , 
.
. 
. 
.
, , 
, , 
, , 
.

,
. 
,
. 

:
, 
.
.

. 
(), (), ( )
( 1979 ). 60

1968 .
, ,
. 

.
360

18.

, 
.

.
, 
. ,  . ,

 .
,

. ,
.
. 
,
, , , 
, , 
.
. 
,
( ).
. mricana

. . 
. 
.
, , , 
, ( 1990
, , 2000 , ),
. ,
. , :
, .
,
. :
,
, 
.

: .
, , 
361

III.

 ,
. 

.

.

... ,
.

.
.
.
, ,
, . 
. 
. 
.
, .
,
, , , 
, , . 

.
. , 
: 
?
, , 
. , 
, , 
. , 
. ? , ,
.
 ?
. 
? 20
, .
, ,
, 
. 
, 
362

18.

, ,
.
.

, (
). , 
, 

. ,
,
, , 
, . 

 
, .



,

.
.
. 
.
, ,
, 
. 
1950 .
1991 .
, ? 
. /
, ,
. 
. ,
,
, .
, 
,
,

363

III.

. 

.
( 
)
. 
, 
, (
), , , . 


II 
.
.
, ,
, .

,
. ,
. , 
.
,
.

. 
. , 
, : 
,
, 
. ,
, 
 .
, , 
,
.
,
, 
, , , 
, .
,
.
364

18.



. , ,
,
.
. 
( ) 
,
.
, 
. , 
, .
, 
, , 
. 
, ,
, 
.

. , , 
, 
, , 
, , .

.

. 
. 
, 
.



, .
, 

. ,

.
?
.
365

III.

:
, , , .

. ,
, 
,
.
, , 
.

. ,
, , 
, 
.
 
 .
,
. , 


. 
. 
.
 .
.

. , 
( ); , 


, ; ,

( ). 
, , ,
.

. 
,
, 
, , 
.
366

18.

,
 
. 
, 
, 
( ), , 
.




, ,
,
.
, 
. ..., 
/..., , (, 
)... , 
. : ,
, ,

.
, 
, 
. ,
, ,
, . ,
. 
, 
, , , 
, , 
.

, , , (
), ( )

? , , 
, 
.
367

III.

, 
2. :

, 
, , 
. .
, , , 
, .
 , 
, .
,
1980 
, , 
, 
. 
, .

,
. ? ( , ,
, , , ,
, ) , 
, 
. 

, . 
.
.
? 
, . , 
, 
, , ,
.
, ,
.


.
, .
?
, , ,

368

18.

.
. , 
,
.
, .
, , 
, 

.


,
, , , ,
, .

.
, 
, ,
, ,
, , 
.
, ,
, ,
. 
, 
. ,
:
, 
, , , 
. . 
, 
.

1
.: . . // 
. 2004. 2.
2
; .: .
// . 2004. 1.

369

19


XXI

. ( ,
, ,
.)

, 
.

, 
, ,
,
. , ,
, , 
.
, 


,
.

(, , 
).

, , , 
.
 

370

19. 

. ,
,  

. ,
, , 
,

.

, , ,
.




:
,
,


(homo
mundanus);
;
, , , 

,
;
(
, ), 


;

;
,  
,
.
, 
, , , . 
371

III.

, . 
,

.

. 
(
, ) 
.

,

. ,
,
, ( 
) , .
WASP1 .

, ,
.
. 

, , 

, (
70 ) .

, 

.
,
, 
,
( ) .
, , 
, , 
 ( 2001 ) 
() 
, 
 . 
372

19. 

 
.
,

, 

 
.
,
,

( ) , 
, ,
.
,
, , , 
( ) 
.

,
, 
, .


.
.

, 

.
.
, 
, ,
( ),
.
,
,

. , ,
, 
373

III.


,
. , ,
(
).
, 

,
( ) 
.
, 
,
, .

. ,
XX ,

,
. ,

 , 
. 

. 
,
. , 
. 

.
,

, XX 
.


. 
.

. , 
, (
, ).
374

19. 

.

, , 
, . 
, , (
)  ( 
) 
,
.
, 1990 
 
.

,

.
. 2001
, 
. 
.
, ,
, XX ,

(),
().
, 
,  
. 
, , 
( , ,
), ,
. , 

.

-



( )
375

III.

.


. , , 
, 
. 
 
, ,
. .

,
, , , 

. 1015
,

. 

, . 
(
) (
, ).

. 
, 
(, , ,
) , 

. , 
,
, 
() (, ). 
, 
, . , , , 
, , , , .
,

. 

, ,
, , ..
376

19. 

, , 

. , 
.

,
: , , ,
. 
,

,
, ,
, .
 
(, ),
, ( permanent
resident), 

. 2001 
, , ,
( 
, ,
) ,
, .
,
, ,
.



, .


.

, , . 
 , 

. (
, , 
) .
377

III.


 
, , ,
. 

, , . 
, , 
. , , ,
,


, .
, 

. 
( 
), , ,
, 
.
,
.
, , , 
, homo soveticus
, , .

, 
, ...
, 
.
,
. 
,
, 
, ( ) 
.



90 

378

19. 



.
.
. 
. 
, , 
, , 
.
( 2004 ), 
, 
.
, 
, 
, , 
. 
, . 1990

(,
) 
, ,
..
2000 
. 
, . ,
, . 

, ,
.
, 
, 
.


. 
.
,  
 

. ,
, .
379

III.


,
.

, , 

.
, 
. ,
, 
.
,
( )
, , , ,

. 
,
,
, 

.
, 
, 
. 

. , ,
,
, 1991 , 
, 
.
,
, , , . 
, 

.
, , 
, 

,
, ,
380

19. 

.
,
. (,
) ,
.
, , .
, 

, .

, 
, , .
.

, , 
,  
, .
, , , .


.
1990
, 2000

,
, 
,
.

. 
.

.
, 

.
, . ,
, ,
1990 , 
, 
,
381

III.

. 2001
, 

. ,
, 

.
, .

. 1520 
.
, 2000

, 
. 
, .
, 
. , 
, .
,
,
.
1990 
.
, , 
, 
.
, ,
, . 


, 
, ,
, 


.

(soft power,
). ,
paramilitary .
382

19. 

soft power 

, 
. , ,

,
.
. ,
, 
. 1990

.
, 

 .

. ,
. 

. , 

,
2001 , , ,
.
,
, .
, , 

,
,
.
,
 .

,
.

. 
,
, , 
( 
383

III.

 ),

. 

, .
,
. ,
,
.
,
. 
, , 

. 
:
, , 
.

.
,
XX .
.
, ,

. : ,
, , .
, 
. , 
: ,

... , 
, .

.

. White AnloSaxon Protestant. . .

384

20



,

1 ,
. 


, ,
.
1996 . . 
, 

2. 
, .


I ,


,

, , 
, 
(, ,
, ).
 , , 


.
385

III.


, ,
, ,
, 
. 

,
( ).
1990
,
.
, 
.
, 3.
. 

. ,
,

. , , , 
2000 

.

.
, ,
.
2001 
. 4,
 , 
, 
. ,
. 

, 
5.
. 
,
, 
. , 

386

20.

. (
) .
, ,
,
/ . 
, , 
,
, ( ) .

, 
,
, 
. 
( , , ; 
..),
, (,
) .

,
. 
, 
, 6.

,
.

.
1990 
. , 
( , ), . 
, ,

. . 
, 
. 
(. , . , 

), 2000 
, ,
.

19912001 ?
387

III.

, : 
, 
.
.
, 
, 
. , 
,
. , 
( ) 
( ).

. , , 

,
.
,
, 
. , 

, 
, .

,
.

.
. 1999 ,

, 
, (
, , ). 
.

, ,
, .
, ,
, 
, ,
, .
388

20.

. 

, ,
.
11 2001 . , 
, , 
. 7.
. ( 2002 )
. :
, ,
8.

.
. ,
. . ,
. 
2001 , 
, 

9.
, . ,
( 

) 
. .
, 

, , 
10.

. 
. . 
, 
. . 
( )
. 
, 
.
, .
, ,
, , .
389

III.

, 

.
, 
. 
. 
11.


,
, ,
, 
. , 
,
. , 
. 
. , 
,
, , 
12.
, . , 

I , , , 
. . , 
, ,
. ,
, . 
 , 
,
,
, .
, , ,
, .
, , 

. 
13.
. 
, :
, . ,
390

20.


,
14. 
, 

, 
. ,
, 
.

. :

;


,
;

, 
, 
.
, 
.
1991 

15. 1990 ,
, 
. , ,

. 
,

.
2001 (
) . . 
,
 .
16.
2002 
, 
,
391

III.

, 
17.
, 
. 
,
( ,
18), 
.
 ,
, .
,
19.

, . , 
. 
20.
,
, , 
. , , (
, 
) , 
.



, .
.

. ,
, 
. :

, .
, 
, 
:
, 
;
, 
;
392

20.


,
;
;

.

( 
), ,

.
, 
, ..
, ,
, 
. ,
, .
1990 
(
). , 
, 
.
, 
, . 
.
, 
. 

(50% ).
( 
).
,
,  
: , , , 21.
, 
20 
( 
), 
, ,
. , 
393

III.

. 
, 

, .
, , 
. 
, , ,
. 
.
, 
?
, , 

.
/  ,
. 1990 ,
,

. 
, , 
. 
,
.

, .

.
. .
, , ,
22.
, 
. , 
, 
,
. , 
, ,
, 23. 


,
. .
394

20.


, , , 
. ,
, . , , 
, , . ,  
, :
, ,
, ( 
) . ,

24.
. 
, ,
, , , , , 
, , , , , 
.
. 
, , , 
. 
.
,
. :
,
, 
.
, 
. , ,
, (
). ,

(
). ,
( ), 
, , ,
, , 
25.
, 26,
20062009 
, 

. 
395

III.

, , , ,
( ), 
, 

. , , 
( ) 
, , 
2000 .
, 
.

, 
. 
, ,
27.
. 
. 
,
,
, 
, . 
, ,
, , , ,
28. 
, 

. . ,


, ,
.
. , 
, , ,

( 
). , ,
,
:
. 
, , ,
, ,
396

20.


29, 
,
, .

, 
. ,
. , 
, 
,
:
1)
, , 

; 2)


; 3) 
30.
,  
,
: , 
. ,
. , ,
: 
, , 
, . ,
, 
31. 
: , .
, 
, , ,
. 
. 
, . 

.

.
. ( 
) , 
397

III.

. , (
, , ),
, 

.

1
.: . . : // : 
, , . 2003. 12. . 314; . . //
. 2004. 1. . 315.
2
Dark K. and Harris A. The New World and the New World Order. London, 1996. P. 146.
3
. , 
, 
,
. , ,
. . , , 
, . .:
Smith S. U.S. Democracy Promotion: Critical Questions // American Democracy Promotion.
Impulses, Strategies, and Impacts / Michael Cox, G. John Ikenberry, Takashi Inoguchi (eds.).
Oxford, 2000. P. 6182.
4
Woodward B. Bush at War. New York, 2002. P. 30, 67, 73.
5
. : . . . ., 2002.
. 97151; . .
., 2003.
6
. . : 
? // : , , . 2000. 11. . 5468.
7
. : Tucker R. The End of Contradiction? // The National Interest. 2002. Fall. P. 6.
8
Bush George W. The State of the Union Address by the President of the United States.
Congressional Record. House. Tuesday, January 29, 2002. 107th Congress, 2nd Session. 148 Cong
Rec H 98. Vol. 148. 5. P. H100.
9
The Weekly Standard. 2002, March 4.
10
The Weekly Standard. 2001, November 12.
11
Schmitt G. A Case of Continuity // The National Interest. 2002. Fall. P. 13.
12
Kupchan Ch. Misreading September 11th // The National Interest. 2002. Fall. P. 2930.
13
Hendrickson D. Toward Universal Empire. The Dangerous Quest for Absolute Security //
The World Policy Journal. 2002. Fall. Vol. XIX. 3. P. 110.
14
Mandelbaum M. The Inadequacy of American Power // Foreign Affairs. 2002. September/
October. Vol. 81. 5. P. 6173.
15
Schwenninger Sh. Revamping American Grand Strategy // World Policy Journal. 2003.
Fall. Vol. XX. 3. P. 2544.
16
Pfaff W. Scaring America Half to Death // International Herald Tribune. 2003. May 8;
Wolf M. The Frightening Flexibility of International Terrorism // Financial Times. 2003, June 4.
. . . 
// . 2004. . . 2. 2. . 7183.
17
The National Security Strategy of the United States of America. The White House, 2002.
September. [ ]. : http://www.cdi.org.
18

Greater Middle East , , 

398

, , 
.
19
Ibid. P. 31.
20
Huntington S. The Lonely Superpower // Foreign Affairs. 1999. March/April. Vol. 78. 2.
P. 3549.
21
. : Schwenninger Sh. Op. cit. P. 3437.
22
.
. ., 2002. . 219.
23
. . 220.
24
Huntington S. Dead Souls. The Denationalization of the American Elite // The National
Interest. 2004. Spring. 75. P. 16.
25
Ibid. P. 5.
26
Kagan R. Americas Crisis of Legitimacy // Foreign Affairs. 2004. March/April. Vol. 83.
2. P. 6587.
27
Layne Ch. From Preponderance to Offshore Balancing // International Security. 1997.
Summer. Vol. 22. 1. P. 86112.
28
Layne Ch. The Peace of Illusions. American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present.
Ithaca, 2006. P. 118122.
29
(), 
, : ,
(age of nonpolarity), (concerted nonpolarity), 
. .: Haass R. The Age of
Nonpolarity. What Will Follow U.S. Dominance // Foreign Affairs. 2008. May/June. [
]. : /www.foreignaffairs.org/20080501faessay87304; Kagan R.
The Return of History // The Los Angeles Times. 2007. August 5. [ ].
: / www.carnegieendowment.org/publications.
30
Carothers Th. U.S. Democracy Promotion During and After Bush. Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace. Washington, D.C.: CEIP, 2007.
31
Brzezinski Z. Second Chance. Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.
New York, 2007. P. 204.

399

21


( ) 

 , 
. 
,

.


.

 
, 
,
, , , , 
,  , 
1.
, , 
, ,
.

-

:
(/)
 ; 
(
), 
. ,

400

21.

, (
), 
.

, . 
 
: , 
( :
, ).
. ,
, 
. , 

. 
 (
) 
( 

). .

( 

) ( 
).

, 
. 
.

2. 
, ,

. , ,

, ,
.
,
.
,
, , 

401

III.

. , 
. 

,
, 
.

(
) (). 
,

3. 

.

, / 
. ,
.
, 
. 
4.
.


.
. 
( ). 
, ,
,

 . 
,
, .

, 
. . , 
,
, , 

.
, 
402

21.

,
5. 

, , 


. . 


6.
.
:
; 
; 
, , 
; ,

( , 
,
);
7. 

. 8.
, 
.
, 

 
. 
. , 
, 
,
.

, . 
, , 
.
, 
.

, . .
403

III.

:
.

, , , 
, ,
, . ,
,  
, 
. 


, / 
, .
9.




,

10.
.
: , 
, 
() ()
? (
),
. 11 

12.


.
. 
ad hoc.
,
, 
.
13 
, 
404

21.



14.
,
, , 
. 
. (
)
( ) , 17 
:
1)
;
2) 
, 
, ;
3) 
;
4)


;
5)
;
6)

;
7) 
;
8)
;
9)
;
10) 
;
11) ;
12) ,
, 
;
13) , 
;
405

III.

14) ,
,
;
15) 

;
16) ;
17)
15.
, 
,
, 
. 
, .


, 
, 

.
 , 
.
,
. 
, , ,
,
. 
,  
, 
.
, 
, , 

, . 
, 
, 
. , 
,
, 
( ),
.
406

21.


, , 
, 
/
,
, 
.
, 
, 

. ,
.
() ,
 , .



. 
. ,
,
, , 
.

, 
.

. ,
. 
.
/
 , ,
, 
,
16.

, 

.

, 
407

III.

. 
, 

. ,
.
,
 ( ), 
 ,
, . 
/
(, , , , , , .),
( 
; , , 

).

, 
, , 
/ , 
. 
,
, 
.
, , 
, , ,
, /
( ,
/ ).


17. 

. ,
,
. , 
: 
( ), 
,
; 
, (
) .
408

21.


. 
:
,
;

( , 


);

 ( . ), 
,
, 
,

 ;
/ 


, 
,
, 
;

,

18.

,
.
:
/

,
, , 
; , ,
,
, (

409

III.

); 
, ; 
, , 
, , 
;
,
, ; (
) ,
, , 
; ;
, 

() ;
,
; 
, ,
; 
, (
), 
;
 
(
, ,

),
, 
;

, , 

;
, ; 
( 
), ( ), 
(
);
 , 
,
, ;
,

410

21.

, 
( 
); () 
, 
;
( 
), , 
, 
( 
); (
) 
, , 
19.

, 
. 
:
( 
 (
); () 
, , 
( ,
, . 
),
, 
, 
; 
, ,
, 
; 
, 
, , , 
, ;
,
,
 , 
; 
, 
, ,
( ) 
411

III.

; 

, 
, 
,
; 

, ;


(. ), 
//
;
; 
, , , , , 
, ; 

,
;
; ;
, , ,
;
, ( ,
); 

.
.
, 
. , 
, ,
, 
, 
. , 
( ). 
, .
, , 
, .

, 
( , 
412

21.


). , 
,
, ,

.
, 
, 

, ,
,
.
( ) 

, 
, .

.
,
.

1
.: . . 
// /: 
. .: , 2002. . 314.
2

. ( : ), . . (
: ), . ( 
: ) . . ( 
: ) : (., 1999.
. 309386).
3
, , .
settings.
4
. ( 2, The Political Legacy of
History). .: Wilson Frank L. Concepts and Issues in Comparative Politics. An Introduction of
Comparative Analysis. Upper Saddle River: Prentice Hall, 1996.
5
. // 
: . .: , 1997. . 32.
6
. . 33.
7
Peters B. Guy. Comparative Politics. Theory and Methods. New York: Palgrave, 1998. P. 10.
8
Ibid.
9
. . . .: ; , 2001.
10
., ., ., . :
. .: , 2002; . .
. .: , 2004; . . 

413

. .: ; , 2000; : .
., 1999; : . .: 
, 1997; . . . .: , 2001; . .
. .: , 2002; 
/ . . .
.: , 2002; : /
. . . . .: ; , 2001.
11 Huntington S. P. The Third Wave. Democratization in the Late 20th Century. Norman,
1991.
12
., ., ., . . .; . .
. .
13
., : . . : 
// . 2003. 2. . 829; . //
. 2003. 2. . 4265.
14

 .
15
. // . 2003. 2.
. 6686.
16

. (Landes D. The Wealth and Powerty of Nations. London, 1998).
, , . ,
. . ( . ., 1999. . 1, 2 
).
17
. . 1. / . . . . . ., 1999; 
. . 2. / . . . . , . . . .,
1999; . . 3. / .
. . . , . . , . . . ., 1999; /
. . . . . ., 1999. , 

(Frank A. G. ReOrient. London, 1998).
18
. : . . , // 
/ . . . . . ., 1999. . 1528.
19

. . . .: . . . .
., 2000.

414

22



1
, 
.

, 
2.

3.
10% 4. 
1978 ()
. , 2006
77% 5, 
.
, :
37% , 14%. 
. 2000 2005
3 ( 225 . 660 .), ,
, 12% 6.
, 
. 2006
2000 7, 35,1 . ,

8.

. 
9. 2005
1700 . ( 25 ).

415

III.

,
10.

( ) 
( )11. ,
415 2 . .
, 2050 
12. 
,

.
13. 


.
.

. , 

, 
.

. 
,  
,
, 
: 
;
; 
;
14.
,
, 
: 
15. ,
, . , 

,
. 
, , .
416

22.



: 
, 
1991  . 
, 
,
,
. 

.
,

, 
, .
( 
), , 
16. , 
. 
, .
 
 , 
, . 

,
, 
17. 
18.
: 

. 
,
.

, , . 

.

, 
417

III.

,
19. 

(19781998). 
,
.
,

. 
, 
.
. 
: , ,
, , 
, , ,
20. 
, 
, 
( ) 
( )21.
,
1990 , 
,

()22.
.
. 
.
1989 
. 
. 
, 
,
. 

(), 

. , ,
. .

, (
418

22.

), 
23. 19891992
. 
.

()24.
. ,
:
( 1989, , , 1949 ) 
.
. 
, 1990
.

. : 
, 
, 
,
... 
25.
,

26, , 
,  
. 
: , 
, 

27.
.

. , 
.
,
 28.


. , 

 
29.
419

III.

19911996
, 
, 
30. 
, 

31.
1991  
(). 1993

().
, ,
 () 
. 
 
32 (
)33.

1995
1996 , ,
.
( 1995 ), 

34. 
1996 
, , ,
.  
. 
.
. 
,
, .

 
1995 :

, 35. 
, 

, 
36.
420

22.



, 1990
.

.
. 
.
. 

, 

.  
,
 . 
, , 
,
,
37.
,
:
38;
;
, 
39.
: 
,
. (
,
), 

40. , 
,
.
.

,
( ). 
150 
,
421

III.

( )41. 
, ,
42.
. 
,
, ,

. , 
, , , 
43.

, ,
,
, ( )44.

. , ,


.

, , 
. 
, 

45.

 19971998 .

, 
. ,
.

.
.
, 1990
46
, 
. , 
.

:
422

22.


( ) ,
19971999 . 

,

47. , ,
.
2002 
. 
:
 48
(
,
);

49;

50;

51.
2003
52,
53.
2001 ,
.

. 
,
. 

() 
, 1996 54.
,
, 
. 
,
.
, 
(
423

III.

). 2003

.
.

.

. 2003
, ,
.
 ,
, .
2003 ,
, . 

.

1990 ,


 55. 
56.
,
, 
, 
. ,
1994 2001 
( )
( ). 
.  
, 2001

, XXI (
)57.
19961997 
, , , , 
, .
1997 2003
58.


424

22.

. 
, 
1997 
.

. 
,
,

, , 
, 59. 
. 

,
 , .

, , ,
, 
.
. 

1950 .
60.
3 2003 61
, 
( )
. 
,
, 

. 
,
.
,
. , 2003 

62. 2005
63.

. , 

425

III.

(
) , 
. ,
, 
. , , ,
: 
.
 

,
, 
, ,

.

, , 
. ,
,

,
, 64.
2003
2020
.
,
 .


. 

(EASCO), 65. 
EASCO , 
,
66.
2004 
:
1) 
 
, , ;
2)  
.
426

22.

, 
, 
. , ,
, 
. 

 
,
67.
, 2000 ,

.
,
. 
,
, .
, 


, ,  .


.
2005
,

, 
68. ,
,
, ,  

. , ,
: ,

.

. , 
, 

. 
,  
427

III.

, ,
. .
 69
. 2003 
 ,


.
4500 , 
70.
2005 

.


71.

. 
.

. ,
,
.

, 
72.


. , 
, , 
,
. 
, 
,
.
73.

. 

, 
, 
428

22.



, , 

. 
,
.
, 
,



. ,
(,
, ) , 
.
, 
. 
 , ,
,
.
( )
.
, , 
,
. 
, ,
.
, 
74.
. 2006 , 

:
. 
,
75.

:
1) 
;
429

III.

2) , 
;
3) , ,
, , (,
, , , 
);
4) , .
,
, 

, .

. 
,
, 
. 
Newsweek 
, 

76.
20 
,

. 
, , ,
, .

.

, .
, , 
.

 
. 
,
, 
, .  
. 
.
430

22.

 , 
, 
, .

, 
. 
,
: 
. , 
, 
,
2004 
( ).
2006 ,  

( )77.


. , 

.

,
(, ,
, )
. ,
, 

.

1
1990 . . . .:
. . :
. 19451995. .: , 1997;
. . 
// . ., . ., 
. . . ., 2002.
. 266282. . . ,
. .: . . 
: . .: , 2006.
2
, 
1993 : Aaron L. Friedberg. Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for

431

Peace in a Multipolar Asia // International Security. 1993/94. Winter. Vol. 18. No 3. . 533.

.
: . : Simon S. W. East Asian Security:
The Playing Field Has Changed. Asian Survey. 1994. Vol. 34. No 12. . 10471063; Ross R. S. The
Geography of the Peace: East Asia in the TwentyFirst Century // International Security. 1999.
Spring. Vol. 23. No 4. P. 81118; The Changing Asian PoliticalMilitary Environment / Zalmay
Khalilzad (ed). The United States and Asia: Toward a New US Strategy and Force Posture. RAND,
2001; Dittmer L. East Asia in the New Era // World Politics. World Politics. 2002. October.
No 5; Ayson R. Regional Stability in the AsiaPacific: Toward a Conceptual Understanding. Asian
Security, Vol. 1. No 2.
2000 : Kang D. Getting
Asia Wrong: the Need for New Analytical Frameworks // International Security. 2003. Summer.
Vol. 27. No 4. P. 5785; Kang D. Hierarchy, Balancing, and Empirical Puzzles in Asian International
Relations // International Security. 2003/04. Winter. Vol. 28. No 3. P. 165180; Acharya A. Will
Asias Past Be Its Future? // International Security. 2003/04. Winter. Vol. 28. No 3. P. 149164.
, , 
,
, , . ., :
( ) /
, , (.). : , 2006.
,
.
3
2006 , , 1314 . // CIA
World Factbook 2006. [ ]. : http://www.cia.gov.
4

33,5% 3% 4%
.
5
CIA World Factbook 2006. [ ]. : http://www.cia.gov.
6
., ., ., . : 
. .: , 2007. . 122123.
7
4 2006 .
8
2005 1700 ( 25
). : Segal G. Does
China Matter? // Foreign Affairs. 1999. September/October. Vol. 78. No 5.
9
CIA World Factbook 2005. [ ]. : http://www.cia.gov.
10

XVI . .: 
XVI ( 
). : , 2002. . 23.
11
. : (: 
). : , 2004. . 201.
12
, , :
( , : 
) / (.).
: , 2005. . 3.
13
,
.: . . :
XXI . .: , 2006. . 83139.
14
Wu Xinbo. Four Contradictions Constraining Chinas Foreign Policy Behavior / Suisheng
Zhao (ed.). Chinese Foreign Policy. Pragmatism and Strategic Behavior. New York: East Gate
Book, 2004. P. 5865.
15
Kugler J. and Organski A. F. K. The Power Transition: a Retrospective and Prospective
Evaluation / Manus I. Midlarsky (ed.). Handbook of War Studies. Ann Arbor: University of

432

Michigan Press, 1989. P. 174; Shambaugh D. Containment or Engagement of China? Calculating


Beijings Responses // International Security. 1996. Autumn. Vol. 21. No 2. P. 187.

. 
. .: XVI 
... . 63. . . 
:
, ,
, 

. C.: . . // . 2004.
. . 2. 2 (5). . 26.
16
Grand Strategies in War and Peace / Paul Kennedy (ed). New Haven: Yale University
Press, 1991.
17
. :
. ( :
). : 
, 2003. . 23; . : 
. ( XXI :
) // ( ). 1999. 6.
18

( ),
, , 
. .: ( 
) // (
. ). : 
, 2000. C. 3. . : Yan Xuetong. The Rise of China and Its Power Status // Chinese
Journal of International Politics. 2006. Vol. 1. P. 533.
19
. ( 
). : , 2005; .
(
). , 2005.

. . 
( . 2006. 1).
20
< > (
: . ). 
: , 2002. C. 520.
21
Yong Deng. The Chinese Conception of National Interests in International Relations //
The China Quarterly. 1998. June. No 154. P. 327. 
.
.
22
Qimao Chen. New Approaches in Chinas Foreign Policy: the PostCold War Era // Asian
Survey. 1993. March. Vol. 33. No 3. P. 240241. 

, 
.
23
, , 
, ,
:

. .
. .: . .
XXI . .: , 2002. . 2755.

433

24
, 
, , , , 
( , ,
,
), 
, .

.
, 
, .: Deutsch K. W. and Singer J. D. Multipolar Power Systems and
International Stability; Rosecrance R. N. Bipolarity, Multipolarity and the Future / James N.
Rosenau (ed.). International Politics and Foreign Policy. 2nd ed. New York: Free Press, 1969. .
: . 
// ... . 3132.
25
. : Suisheng Zhao. Beijings Perceptions of the International System and Foreign
Policy Adjustment after the Tiananmen Incident / Suisheng Zhao (ed.). Chinese Foreign Policy.
Pragmatism and Strategic Behavior... P. 142
26
., : Feigenbaum E. A. Chinas Challenge to Pax // Washington Quarterly.
2001. Summer. Vol. 24. No 3. P. 3143; Shambaugh D. SinoAmerican Strategic Relations: From
Partners to Competitors // Survival. 2000. Spring. Vol. 42. No 1. P. 97110; Gill B. Constraining
Visions: China, the United States, and World Order, remarks to the USChina Security Review
Commission. Washington, D.C., 2001. August 3. [ ]. :
http://www.uscc.gov/tesgil.htm; . . . .:
, 1998. . 1921.
27
Johnston A. I. Is China a Status Quo Power? // International Security. 2003. Spring. Vol. 27.
No 4. P. 30.
28
Goldstein A. The Diplomatic Face of Chinas Grand Strategy: A Rising Powers Emerging
Choice // The China Quarterly. 2001. December. No 168. P. 835864.
29
Medeiros Evan S. and Fravel M. T. Chinas New Diplomacy // Foreign Affairs. 2003.
NovemberDecember. P 23.
30
Swaine M. D. and Tellis A. J. Interpreting Chinas Grand Strategy: Past, Present and Future.
Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2000. P. 138.
31
Johnston A. I. Learning versus Adaptation: Explaining Change in Chinese Arms Control
Policy in the 1980s and 1990s // The China Journal. 1996. January. No 35. P. 5859.
32
Qimao Chen. New Approaches in Chinas Foreign Policy: the PostCold War Era. P. 247.
33
, , 
, . C.: . (
) //
( ). :
, 1995. C. 311.
34

19951996 . , 
. Crisis in the Taiwan Straight / James R. Lilley
and Chuck Downs (eds.). National Defense University Press, 1997; Myers R. H. and Zhang J. The
Struggle Across the Taiwan Straight. Stanford: Hoover Institution Press, 2006; Scobell A. Chinas
Use of Military Force: Beyond the Great Wall and the Long March. Cambridge University Press,
2003. P. 171192; Ross R. S. The 19951996 Taiwan Straight Confrontation: Coercion, Credibility
and the Use of Force // International Security. 2000. Autumn. Vol. 25. No 2. P. 87123.
( ) 

, .
35
Christoffersen G. China and the AsiaPacific: Need for a Grand Strategy. P. 1079.
36
Deng Y. Hegemon on the Offensive: Chinese Perspectives on US Global Strategy // Political
Science Quarterly. 2001. Autumn. Vol. 116. No 3. P. 348.

434

37
Goldstein A. The Diplomatic Face of Chinas Grand Strategy: A Rising Powers Emerging
Choice. P. 836. (calculative).
.: Swaine M. D. and Tellis A. J. Interpreting Chinas Grand Strategy: Past, Present and Future
(Santa Monica, CA, RAND, 2000). P. XI.
38
Christensen T. China, the USJapan Alliance, and the Security Dilemma in East Asia //
International Security. 1999. Spring. No 23. P. 4980.
39
Idem. Great Expectations: Interpreting Chinas Arrival // International Security. 1997/
1998. Winter. Vol. 22. No 3. P. 60.
40
Idem. The Diplomatic Face of Chinas Grand Strategy: A Rising Powers Emerging Choice.
P. 842.
41
Medeiros E. S. and Fravel M. T. Chinas New Diplomacy // Foreign Affairs. 2003.
NovemberDecember. . 32.
42
Foot R. Chinese Power and the Idea of a Responsible State // The China Journal. 2001.
January. No 45. P. 15.
43

. .: . .
: 
// ... C. 173199.
. , , : 
. 
,
. .: Shambaugh D. The Rise of China and Asias New Dynamics // D. Shambaugh
(ed.). Power Shift: China and Asias New Dynamics. University of California Press, 2005. P. 65.
44
. : ( : 
). Tianjing: Tianjing renmin chubanshe. :
, 1998. C. 234236.
45
You Ji and Jia Qingguo. Chinas Reemergence and Its Foreign Policy Strategy / Joseph Y. S.
Cheng (ed.). China Review, Hong Kong: Chinese University Press, 1998. P. 128.
46
Shambaugh D. China Engages Asia: Reshaping the Regional Order // International Security.
2004/05. Winter. Vol. 29. No 3. P. 69.
47
. 1997. 28 . . 
. .: .
( 
). ( ). 1997. No 3.
C. 2832.
48
Declaration of the Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea. [ 
]. : http://www.asean.org/13163.htm.
49
Joint Declaration of ASEAN and China on Cooperation in the Field of Nontraditional
Security Issues. [ ]. : http://www.asean.org/13185.htm.
50
Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations and the Peoples Republic of China. [ ]. 
: http://www.asean.org/13196.htm.
51
Memorandum of Understanding between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
Secretariat and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Peoples Republic of China. [
]. : http://www.asean.org/13214.
52
Instrument of Accession to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia. [
]. : http://www.asean.org/15271.
53
Joint Declaration of the Heads of State/Government of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations and the Peoples Republic of China on Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity.
[ ]. : http://www.asean.org/15265.
54

, , , ,
.

435

55
. ( 
) //
( ). 2000. 1. C. 1.
56
. ( : 
) // . 1998. 21 .
57
( 
) / , (.). : 
. . 118119.
58
Gill B. Chinas Regional Security Strategy / D. Shambaugh (ed.). Power Shift: China and
Asias New Dynamics. P. 252253.
59
Jishi W. Building a Constructive Relationship / M. Abramowitz, F. Yoichi and W. Jishi
(eds.). ChinaJapanUS: Managing the Trilateral Relationship. Tokyo: Japan Center for
International Exchange, 1998. P. 22.
60
.:
Nathan A., Gilley B. Chinas New Rulers, Secret Files. New York, 2003. P. 231257.
61
2003 
1000
.
: <http://www.boaoforum.org>.
62
.
( ,
) // ( ). 2003. 11 .
[ ]. : http://www.southcn.com/nflr/llzhuanti/hpjq/zyyl/
200405100906.htm). ( 
) // . 2004. 26 
. [ ]. : http://news3.xinhuanet.com/zhengfu/200403/
26content_1386611.htm; ( 
). Zhongguo zhengzhi xue wang, . [ ].
: http://www.cp.org.cn/2233/ReadNews.asp/NewsID=2614&BigClassName=&
BigClassID=23&SmallClassID=39&SmallClassName=&SpecialID=33.
63
Bijian Z. Chinas Peaceful Rise to GreatPower Status // Foreign Affairs. 2005.
SeptemberOctober. [ ]. : http://www.irchina.org/en/
news/view.asp?id=397.
64
Yunling Z. and Shiping T. Chinas Regional Strategy / D. Shambaugh (ed.). Power Shift:
China and Asias New Dynamics... P. 53. 
 
.
65
Jiangyong L. and Xuetong Y. Some Tentative Strategic Thoughts on Establishing an East
Asian Security Community. Waijiao Shiwu ( ). 2004. March. No 17.
[ ]. : http://www.irchina.org/en/news/view.asp?id=369).

,
.
66
Ibid.
67
Ibid.
68
.: Lam W. Beijings Strategy to Counter US Influence in Asia. China Brief.
2005. December 6. Vol. V. Issue 25. P. 1.
69
Lai R., Rajagopalan R. USIndia Strategic Dialogue. RAND: Center for Asia Pacific Poli
cy, 2004.
70
Shambaugh D. Return to the Middle Kingdom? / D. Shambaugh (ed).). Power Shift: Chi
na and Asias New Dynamics. P. 3536.
71
China Noncommital on Backing India at UNSC // Press Trust of India. 2005. April 12.
[ ]. : http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/
181_1316929,0008.htm.

436

72
, , :
( , : 
/ (.)...
C. 195.
73

, , 
. 
. .: .
// . 2007. 13 .
74
Yunling Z. and Shiping T. Chinas Regional Strategy / D. Shambaugh (ed.). Power Shift:
China and Asias New Dynamics. P. 53.
75
. : ChongPin Lin. Beijings New Grand Strategy: an Offensive with ExtraMilitary
Instruments // China Brief. 2006. December 6. Vol. VI. Issue 24. P. 4.
76
Zakaria F. What Bush and Kerry Missed // Newsweek. 2004. October 25. P. 13.
77
. (

) // (
). : , 2006. C. 7887.

437

23



. 
, 
. 

, . 
. ,

. , 
, 
. .

.


. , ,
, ,
15% . 

.

.



.
, 
, 
, .
438

23.

. ,
( 11 2001 ) 
, 
, .
, 
( ), ,

.

, ,
, ( 
). 
, , 

. 
, , 
.
, 
,
, . 

. 
,
. ?




. 
,

. , 
. :
,
( ,
, 
(), ,
, , 
, );
;
439

III.

(,
, .), 
( )
.
 ,
, , 
, 
 ( 

).
,  
. 
, 

.

.

. , 
(20012002) 
(2003) .
,
.

.
,
,
 .
,
 
. , 
,
, , .
,

(  19801988 
), 
( 
) :  
(1982) (1999).
440

23.


,

.

, 
, 
. , 

, .
, .

, 
, . ,
, ,
,
. 

.
.
,
 
, . 

1924 ,
 . 

, , , 
 
( ),
. ( XI ) 
, 
, 
. 
 XIX ,
.
, 1950
 (
1928 ), 
. ,
, 
441

III.


.

. 
:
, 
.
. 
 ,
(
) , .

11 2001
, .  

.
,
?

. 1 ,
.
, 
, (
. . 1966 ).
( 
 ,
: )
:  
, ,
2. ,

,  . 
, 
.
, 
, 1939
 , 
. 
19301940
( , 
, ),
442

23.


, 
, 3. 
, , 

4.
? ,
. ,
. , 
, 
. 1998
() 
99 (2/11) , : 
, 
(), 
,
,
, (5) 6.

,
, XVI 
. 
, 7.

, ,
.
, 
. , 
( )


. , , 
.
, .

. 
.
,
.

.
443

III.

, ,
. ,
,
,
, 8.

, 
, , 
9.

, ,

( ) 
.  ,
, , 
, 
, , 
, .

. 
, 
, 
.
, ,
.
, , 
,  10
, .

, , 
, ,
, .


, ,

 . , 

, 
, .

444

23.

. ? ,
, ,
, .
, 
? , ,
. , , 
. 

.
,
, , ,
, 
. 

. ,
.
? , 
11. : 

. , 
(

), , ,
: . 
, .

. ,


.



. , (. ) 
, 
, . 

.
. , 
(
), 
445

III.

( , 
), 12.
, ( 
) , 
 , 
, ,
13.
,
, ,
14.


, 
, 
, 
: [ ],
, ,
[ ] , 
... ...
15.

, ?
,
, , 
( ). ,
, , ,
, .

, .
,
16. 1973 
,
,
.
, 
. 
, ,

.
1970
, 
446

23.

. . , 
17, 
.

,
18,  
,
, .
( ) 
. 
, 23 ,
5% ( : 1950 
800 . ). 
(6
62 ), (3 82 ), (1,5 60 ),
( 1 58 ), ( 1 40 ). 
, 2025 , 2050,
, 20% . 
( 70 ),
,
.

.
,
, , . , 
, (1) ( ) 
, (2)
, (3) 
, (4) ( 
), (5) 
, (6) , (7) 
..
, , 

XXI , 
.
, 
: (), 
() (
).
, , 
447

III.

,

. ,
. , , , 
.
, 2005 ,

, 
.
,
, . 
, 
, . 
,
.

, , 
.

 , , 
,
2005 (JyllandsPosten) 
.
, ,
, 
, 

. 
: versus . 

, 
. , ,
,
. 
?



2000 ,
, /
.
448

23.

.
, 
, , , 
1970 19.

. 
 , ,
, 
(The Young Peoples Socialist
League)  1930 ,

. 1960 
, ,
,
. 1965
, 
(The Public
Interest). : , 
: , , 
;  ,  
.  20.
1996 . : , 
, (
. . .) , , , 
21.
,

. 
, ( 
). 
, , , 
, ,
22. 1970 
23 
. 
(The American
Enterprise Institute) . 1980
.
, 1981 
( 
) ,
449

III.


.
( 
, , ).
. 

, 
.

(1979), 
, , . , 

: .


. 
, ,
, . , ,

? ,
2003 ()
: ... ,
( . . .), 
,
. 
, , 
, ,
. 

. 

, : ,
100 . 
, ?24
1991 , 

.
. , 
, 
, 
.
450

23.

1990 
.
,

1993 .

25, 

. 
, . ,
26.

. , ,
, 
.

. 


( 
). 1990 
, 
.
26 1998 , 

, 27, 

,
. , ,

.
: 

28.
,
1990 , 
 .
. 
, , 
, 
. , 
451

III.


. , 
(, ,
, 29).
1996 , 
30, 
, ( 
) 
: ,
. 
(
19811987 ), (
2001
2005 ) .
, : ,
, 
, .
,

, . 
.

(19131997) , 
,
.
,
1980 (
, ). 

31. 
1990 
(Defense Planning Guidance Paper), 

.
1998 ( 11 2001 )
.

. . 
, . , . , . . 32.
, 
, , ,
452

23.

 
, , ,
, , , , , , , 
, 
( 11 , 
)33.
, 
. 
1993 . 
(lash of Civilizations),
. 
... , 
. 

1990 . ( .)
2004 
,
.
, , ,
34. 

, ( 
). ,

, , , .
11 2001 
. 10
2002 . (
35)
, , 
. , , 
, ,
,
, , 
( . . .)36.
, ,
.  
. .

, ,
11 2001 .
453

III.




.

.

.
, ,
. , 
:

;
;
;
;
37.

, .
:
,

. , , 
, ,
19501960 , 38.

, 
.
, 

, 

, , .

.

1
, (. modernite,
. modernite) . 
, , .

454

12
. . 5, 4448. , 1962 (
).
3
Sivan E. Radical Islam: Medieval Theology and Modern Politics. New Haven and London:
Yale University Press, 1990. . 24.
4
Op. cit. Ch. 2.
5
, 
:  (
).
6
(
) / . . . . .: , 2003. . 232.
,
, , 
, ,
, ,
( 100 (3/11). . 233).
7
Armstrong K. Presentation at the second meeting of the Highlevel Group // Alliance of
Civilizations. Doha. 2006. February 2628.
8
Ibid.
9
Fuller G. E. The Future of Political Islam. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003. P. 213.
10
 , 
. , ,
.
11
Berman P. Terror and Liberalism. New York; London: W. W. Norton & Company, 2003.
P. 2627.
12
Roy . Globalized Islam: The Search for a New Ummah. London: Hurst & Company,
2002. P. 157.
13
Athar S. Reflections of an American Muslim. Chicago: Kazi Publications, 2002. [
]. : http://www.islamusa.com/r8.html.
14
Ramadan T. Les musulmans dans la laicite. Responsibilite et droits des musulmans dans les
societes occidentales. Lyon: Tawhid, 1994. P. 101. 
, ,
, .
15
.: [ ]. : http://www.supportersofshariat.org/
eng/abuhamza.html.
16
, 
. , , 
, , (,
.). , 
  ( 
).
17
Roy O. Op. cit. P. 226.
18
1995 .
19

.
20
.: [ ]. : http://www.cooperativeindividualism.org/
kristolbio.html.
21
. : Buchanan P. J. Where the Right Went Wrong. How Neoconservatives Subverted
the Reagan Revolution and Hijacked the Bush Presidency. New York: Thomas Dunne Books,
2005. P. 37.
22
Kepel G. The War for Muslim Minds. Islam and the West. The Belknap Press of Harvard
University Press, 2004. P. 51.
23
1972 .
24
Buckanan P. J. Op. cit. P. 41.

455

25
 (. 1951 )
, 
, .
, XIX .
. , , 
 , ,
. , 

( ). 

, 1966 . 
, , . 
( )
, 
, , .
26
,
, ,
.
27
A letter from The Project for the New American Century. 1998. January 26. [
]. : http://www/theindyvoice.com/index.blog?entry_id=417960.
. 1. (), (. ), 
( . ), (. ),
( ), , ( 
), , (
. ) .
28
Ibid. P. 2.
29
Kepel G. Op. it. P. 64.
30

.
31
Kepel G. P. 6566.
32
Buchanan P. J. Op. cit. P. 46.
33
Ibid. P. 52.
34
Ibid. P. 5657.
35
. , 
, , .
36
Buchanan P. J. Op. cit. P. 53.
37
Fuller G. Op. cit. P. 156158.
38
Zakaria F. The Future of Freedom. Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad. New York;
London: W. W. Norton & Company, 2004. . 21.

456

IV

, ,
24.
25. -

26.

27.

457

458

24


. 
, 

. 
,
,
.
, 
.

. ,

. , 

. , 

, 
. , 

, 
. ,
(ocean governance).

,

.
, 
, 
459

IV. , ,

, 
. , 
,
, 
, , .

( !) 
, 
.



. 

, ,
, .
,
, 
, 1.
50 , 
.

2.

, .

, , 
, .

, .
,
, ,
, 
21 . ( 
12,3 .)3.

, 



460

24.

, 
.

, ,
. 
. 

, 
,
, , ,
,
,
, 4.
:
;
;

( , ),
;
;
.

, ,
, , , 
. 
, , 


.


, 
.
, ,
, , (
), 
, ,
, .
, , 
, 
461

IV. , ,



.
, 
.
, 
. 
,
. , 

.
,
. 

. , ,

5.

,

. , , 
,
.

,
.

,

.
. ,
, 
. 

.
, 
, , 
. 
6.
, 
. 
462

24.

,
. 


, .

. 80% 
. 

, (
)
, 7. 1995

().
1992  
. 
, 
.

I8.
, 

. 
, 
,

9.

.

I 
. 
, , 
. 

7 . . 1 . 
.
30%, 50% 
.
80%. 36 ,
2010 , , 100 .
463

IV. , ,


21 .,
. 
60 . 
75% 2020 10.

.
, 

.

.
.
, 

:
, 

;
,
;

11 
;

, 
, ;

, 
, 
.
I 
,
. 

( ),
, 
,
( )
.
464

24.

2000 191
12, 
. 
, 

.


.
, , 

( )

.



. ,

. 

13.
2002 ()
14. ,
, , 

, 
, 
, .

. 
, 
.

15.

2010 

,

.
465

IV. , ,


, 
. 

.
, 
. 
,
, 
,
16.

(
), 
, , 
(, 17), 
.
. 

, 

, ,
. 


.

. 
 .



, ,
.





,
466

24.

, 
, 

.
. 
. 

.


, , 
 .
, 
( , 
), (,
)
.
.
70% 
. 
(). 
18 
, ,
 .

.

.

. 

(12,5 .).

, 
, 
. 

. ,
,

.
467

IV. , ,


, 
, , 
, ,
, 
, .



, , ,
, 
().
,
, 19. 1972 

(.L. 92583).
, 
, , ,

,
, 
, .

. 
( 10% ) 
. 

, 
.

() 
20. 
:
, 
;
, , 
;
( 
);
;
.
468

24.


.
,
. 

. , 
21.


,
22.


(1974). 140 , 16 50 
14 .
,
.
:

;

, , 
,
, ,
;

,
;
, , 
,
;

23.


.
1996 24
, 

, .
469

IV. , ,

, 
, ,
.
,


, .
,
,
.
,
, , 
, 
.
c .
,
, 
 
. .
, ,
, , 
. 

, .



.

( ), 
( 
), 
, , 
.

. 
, 

. 

.
470

24.




. 
, ,

.



, 
, , , 
.



.

, , , 
, , 
, .

, , 
,

25.
, 
. , 
, , 
. , 


. 
, ( , 
), , 
,
. 
, 

26.
471

IV. , ,


. 

,
. 
, 

. 

.
.
( 
), 
, 
, ,
,
,
.
.
(, )
. 
, 
.

, 
. 
, , . 
,

. 
,
27.


, 
, .




28. 
472

24.


 , 
. 

. ,
, 
.

, 
, 
.

29, 

,
.
.
, 
,
,
, ,

. 

. , 
,
, 
, .
, 

20002004 , PEW Commission.
,
, , ,
, ,
, 
30.
(, ) 
,


.
473

IV. , ,

,

.
, 
.
( , 
), 
, , 
, 

, , 

.


. 
(, 1988),
(, 1992),
(,
1999), (, 2002), 
(, 2005), 
, (, 2006).


.
, 31,
.

.

. 

. 
, ,
, 32. 
.
. 

,

.
474

24.


. 
(1982)33 

. 
, , 
. 

, 
34.

1
. . : //
. 2003. . . 1. 3.
2
Juda L. Considerations in Developing a Functional Approach to the Governance of Large
Marine Ecosystems // Ocean Development and International Low. 1999. Vol. 30. No 2.
3
McGill A. Charting a New Course for Oceans. State of the World. 1999.
4
Arico S. Implementing the Ecosystem Approach in Ocean Areas, with Particular View to
Open Ocean and Deep Sea Environment. UNESCO, 2006; U.N. Openended Informal
Consultative Process on Oceans and the Law of the Sea, U.N. A/61/156. 2006.
5
. UN Doc. A/61/63, 2006.
6
Ibid.
7
U.N.Doc. A/59/62/Add1, 2004.
8
I. , 1992. [ ]. : http://
www. un.org/russian/conferen/wssd/agenda21/.
9
 . 1992. [
]. : http://www.spbpravo.ru/abro.php?id=9978.
10
Oceans: The Source of Life. U.N. 2002.
11
, 
. 
.
12
UN Millenium Declation. U.N.Doc. A/RES/55/2.
13
UN.Doc. A/59/62/Add.1.
14
Report of the World Summit on Sustainable Development. Johannesberg, 2002.
15
, 
, , 
, .
16
Arico S. Op.cit.; . : An ocean Blueprint for the 21st century. Washington. 2004.
17
;
(U.N. Development Programme) 
 .
, 
, , 
, , ..
. . .
18

, , .

475

() 
.
19
Mitchell J. K. Coastal Management Since 1980: The U.S. Experience and its Relevance for
Other Countries // Ocean Yearbook. 6. 1986; CicinSain B., Knecht R. Integrated Coastal and
Ocean Management. Consepts and Practices. Washington, 1998; . .
: //
: , , . 2002. 7.
20
Sorensen J. The International Proliferation of Integrated Coastal Zone Management Efforts //
Ocean and Coastal Management. 1993. Vol. 21. No 12.
21
. . : 
. ., 2002.
22
Kullenberg G. Challenges and Potential Solutions for Achieving Synergies at the Regional
Level on Ocean and Coastal Governance. Paris, 2003; Vallega A. The Regional Scale of Ocean
Governance. Facing the Ecosystem. Medcoast 99. Turkey, 1999.
23
Kimbell L. A. Regional Ocean Governance. IUCN, U.K. 2003.
24
, . .
.
25
Toward Effective Ocean Governance // The Ocean: Our Future. Cambridge Univ. Press.,
1998; Kimball A. International Ocean Governance. IUCN, 2001; The International Ocean
Governance Network. Tokyo, 2004; . .
// : , , . 2007. 2.
26
Governance Improvement and Harmonization of International Agreements and Emerging
Issues // Toward the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. Paris, 2001.
27
Striking a Balance. Improving Stewardship of Marine Areas. Washington: National Academy
Press, 1997.
28
UNDP. Governance for Sustainable Human Development. New York, 1997; Glive G.
Sustainable Development and Global Governance // The Journal of Environment and
Development. 2007. Vol. 16. No 1.
29
2 ( ),
.
30
PEW Ocean Commission. A Report to the Nation. Recommendations for New Ocean
Policy. Washington, 2003.
31
, , , 

.
32
Gordon S. and Naim M. Altered States: Globalization, Sovereignty, and Governance. Otta
wa, 2000.
33
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. U.N., New York, 1983.
34
Friedheim R. L. Ocean Governance at the Millenium: Where We Have BeenWhere We
Should Go // Ocean and Coastal Management, 1999. Vol. 42. No 9; Governance in a Globalizing
World / J. S. Nye Jr., J. D. Donahue (eds). Washington, 2000; Carin B., Higgott R. et all. Global
Governance: Looking Ahead, 20062010 // Global Governance. 2006. Vol. 12. No 1.

476

25

-



 () , 

. 

, , 
.

.

. 
.
,
()
XXI .

-

XXXXI 
:
, 
,
. ,
,

. 

477

IV. , ,


(), 
.
1998
.
.
19982006 
, , , ,
. 
. 

, 
  .
, 
, , 
.

, 
(), 
(), 
,
()1.


.

,
1998 , 

. , 
, , 

 , 

.
, 
, :


;
478

25. 

( ,
);


;
,

;


;
 
, 
;

.
, 
, 
.
. 


XXI ,
2 1998 .
, 

, 
.


 ,

2. , 
XXI 
.

.

,
,
.
479

IV. , ,



. 23 1998


. . 3.

, , 
. , 


.
. . , 

, 

. ,

, , 
.
, , ,

, .
,
, 
.

,
. , 
()
(). 
,
, , ,

.


4.
: , 
, 

480

25. 

. , ,


, 
,
 
. 
 , 

, ,

 .

, 
.



. 2 1998 
, 4 1998 ()
(A/RES/53/70)5.

,
,

. , 

. ,
.

, 
, 
, 
. 

, , 
.
, . 

, , 
, .
481

IV. , ,

2005
. 

. 1999
54/49 :
(1) , (2) 
(3) . ,
, 
.
1999 , 
, 
, 
. 
,
 
. 
,
, , 
, 
. 
, ,
, 
.
, ,
, 
. 

, , 
, .

, , 
. 20 2000 55 
55/28, 


.
.
(A/56/164/Add.l 3 
2001 ) , 
.
:
482

25. 


;

;

;
;
;
.
56
29 2001 ,
56/19. 2004 

. 
, 
,

. 2002 
,
.
.

,
( 

) 19992002
. ,
, 
, 

. 

.

33 , 4
.
, , , , ,
483

IV. , ,

, ( ),
, , , , .

.
(
, , ),

. , 
.
, 
.
8 2003
(AVR.ES/58/32), 

(). 

, , , , ,
, , , , , , ,
, . 
, 

.  (2004), 
(2005)  (2005).
.
. 

. 
. 

, , 
.

,
.

 .
, , 
.


(digital divide).
484

25. 

, , :
1) 

;
2) 
;
3) 
, 
(, );
4) 
;
5) 
.
: 

. 
, .

.
,
, .
,
2005 
, , , .

. 2009

. ,
, .
2006 61 
, 

.
176 ,
.



2000
(). : (1)
485

IV. , ,

, XXI ; (2)
; (3) 
, 
.


, 
.


, .
,
, , ,
.


, 
. 
,
.

().
2003 ,
2005 . 
(, 2002 ) 16 
.
,
,
.

,
, ( 
)
.


: (, 79
2002 ) (, 1315 2003 ). 


. , 
486

25. 


, , 
,

.

.



; ; 
;

. 
, 
.
2006

. 


, .
2009 .

2005

: ( 
) (
). 


6.
, .

.

.

487

IV. , ,

. 
, 
. ,
, 
, , 
.
.

, 
. 
, 2006 
().
12 15 2007 7.
.

,
, . 

. 

.
(
) , 
, 
. , 
,
.



15 2006 . 
.
, , , , 

, 
,
, .
,
, 
,
 .
488

25. 


, 

, . 
, 

.

.
2006 
 . 
, 
, , ,
. 
2007

.
.
, ,
, 

.  
.



. 

, , ,


.

. ; 

.
, , 
:
(, 
);
489

IV. , ,

(, , 
);
( 
).

.


.

. , , ,
, 
,

.

1
() 17 1991
11

. 
, 
(, 9 1992 ), 
.

. 
. 
, . : <http://
www.rcc.org.ru>. . .
2
. 1999. 10. . 1314.
3
UN Doc. A/C/1/53/3. 30 1998. . 23.
4
Ibid. . 45.
5
UN Doc. A/Res./53/70. 4 1999. C. 12.
6

, 
.
7

.. 
. 
, , , , 
.

, 

. . .

490

26



XXI

1.

.

2.

,

.
.



(space security) 3. 1950

4.
1980,
()
5. 
2004 . 

(National Security Space Office). 
6.
XXI 7 
:
491

IV. , ,

;

(
);
, , 

;
, 
.
,
.
,
8. 

.
,

, 
, 9.

, 
 
. 10 ,

. 
11 
. 
12 ,
,

. 13 


. 
.

.

1967 ( ) 
.
492

26.


, 
, 
, 
. 
,

(). 
, 

. 
.
,

.

, 

. 2000 ,
, 
. 

14. 
1967 15.
, 
. , ,
,
100
120 . 
. 
. 

. 
,
.
,
. 1976 
,

. ,
. 
493

IV. , ,

. C
1979 16 
( ), . 
,
. 
1967 ,
, 
.
, 
.
. 
, , , 


17.
, 
.

. 
. 
,
?
,
/
. 
.

18. ,
,
, 
. 
1967 .


19. , 

.

.
. 
.
494

26.



.


.
1960 
1980 . 

. 2000

.
1990
.

. 

.




.
19
(1975). 
(1977)

(1981) . 1980
:
 
.
().

.


. 2 (1979)
, 
. 
36 (SS9 Mod 3 Scarp) 
.
495

IV. , ,

1983 .
1 (1991) 
18 (SS19 Stilet), ,
10 000 , 
.  .
,  
.

. 1984
. 1986
, 
. 
.

20. 
(8) 19 1986
.
1990 
.

. , 
, , 
.
17 1992 . . .

.

.

. 
()
. 
: (
), (), () 
(). 

. 


.
496

26.


5 1992
21 .

, 
. 23 2001
, 
34 22.
 
. 
1980 , , , ,

. 1991 
Loral Space and Communications
Qualcomm 
. 
: 
1990 . 
1996
. 


23.


()24. 1993 
. .
. 2
1993  .
. .
. 1 1993
.
23 1994
. 29 1998

,
.
.
.
1998 .

497

IV. , ,

, .
 
. 
. 

25 ATV26.


HTV27. 
. 
,
.
 
. 1992

(RussianAmerican Observation Satellite, RAMOS/).

,
. 1995


28. 

.
21 1997 


. 
, .
1990
. 2 1998
. . . 
.
20 1999

(). 4
2000 . . .
, 
,
29. 15
2001 .
498

26.

13 2002
.
. 13 2004
.
.


.
. 
, ,

.
2 
. , 
. 
.


. 
1967
. 2000
,
.

.



2003 2004 30. 
31 . 
2003 
3. 15 2003
5.
32. 14 2004
. 
, 
. , , 
.

.
499

IV. , ,

2001 GSLV33
. 23 
2004 VSB3034 
. 
2005
1, 17 2008 
. 2003
2004 Space Adventures


. 
, , ,
, , .

.

, , .
Vinasat1. 
,
ErosA (2000) ErosB (2006).

Air Launch Aerospace Indonesia 
124 . 

( ). 2002
, Asia Pacific
Space Center ( ) .
.
1992

. 2003
CIBER35. 7 2008 

, . 2008 

.

.
3,
. 1994
1999
500

26.

Clementine Lunar Prospector, 



. 2003
2006 SMART136. 
2007
1 . 22 2008 
1 
, 3.
, 
20102012 .
.
2016 /
, 
.

. 
2020 .
2030 
.
2040 . 
 2008 .

. 4 1997 
Mars Pathfinder Sojourner,
. 1999 
, .
2000 . 2004

Spirit Opportunity. 
MarsOdyssey (2001) Mars Reconnaissance
Orbiter (2005). 25 2008 
. 
2 2008 , 
.
.

. 1998 
. 2003 

. 
.
501

IV. , ,

2007 500,
. 
.
.
1980
. 4 1989 
. 19901994 
,

. 12 1994
37 .
.

. 2003 

 . 9 
2005
 . 20062008 
,

(, ).

2008
.

.

.

(
). 3 2004
. 14 2008

. 2 2008
, 
2013 .

. 1990 
. 1990 
. 1997 
.
502

26.

. 19
2006
. 
.

. (, ,

, .)

. 
. 1995 
GPS (Global Positioning System).
2000 , 
. 

, 
.
. 1995
24 , 
().
 1990 
, . 2007 
. 2010
18 , 
24 (12
). 27 2007 
Glospace, . 

.

.
:
,
GPS.
27 3 ,
,
.
, 
.

.
503

IV. , ,

, .

.
, 
. 
, , .

,
. , 
. ,
. 
,
,
. 
, 
. 


, 
.



. 1940 
.
19601970 
, .

(), 
. ,
, 
38.

/
.
39. 1960 

. 1970 
. 
. (1983)

504

26.

. 1987

(). 1980
,
.

40.

,
. 1970 
 1979
. 19771985 
ASAT (AntiSatellite System),
F15 
ASAT. 
. 1983 
. ,
1985 .
1990 .

. GPS

.

. 
,
.
THAAD (Theater High
Altitude Area Defense), 120150 .

(global joint operations), 

41.
 
. 9 1994 
. 1994

THAAD. ,
,
. 12 1995 ,
THAAD .
505

IV. , ,

, 21 1995
THAAD.
1995  .
, 

1996 42. (

.)

THAAD  .
THAAD 
. 26 1997 .
. . 
. 
 , 
1993  2.
 , 

. , , 2000 2
 . 
, 

.


.
() 
 . 1990 
. 1994 
( ) 
. 1997 
().

. 2001 
. 

.
. 
. . 11
2001 . 
 43. 
506

26.


.
, ,
.

. 2002

,
.
2000 
. 17 2004 
U.S. Air Force Transformation Flight Plan200444.
:
,
, 
, ,
. 
. 
 ,
,
45.

, 
. 31 2006 
46 
.
.
6 2000 . . 
47. 2005
, 

. . 9
2006 


.

. 2006



507

IV. , ,

.
30 2006 .
4 2007 
. . , 

48. , 
, 
: (1)
 , 
; (2) 24
;
(3)
3649. 
1980 50.
. 11 2007

FY1C 865 .
, 
51. 23 2007
. (Space
Operations)52.

, 
.

. 11 2007 

, 
.
,
.
, 7 2007
.

1213 
2008 . , 
. 21 
2008 , 
SM3 USA193. 23
2008  
. 
508

26.

.


. 
, , ,  
, .

. 
, 
, 
,
. 
.
, 
.

.

,
, 

, .

, 
, .

, 
.

. ( 
) 
, ,
. 

. 
.

,
. 

.
509


 1960 . 

. .: Moltz J. C. The Politics of Space Security. Strategic Restraint and the Pursuit of
National Interests. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2008; Freeze J. J. Space as a Strategic
Asset. New York: Columbia University Press, 2007; . . .: , 2008.
2
DeBlois B. M., Garvin R. L., Kemp R. S., Marwell J. C. Space Weapons: Crossing the U.S.
Rubicon // International Security. 2004. Fall. Vol. 29. No 2. P. 5084.
3
, 
 Space Security.org. [ 
]. : http://www.spacesecurity.org.
4
Clarke A. C. The Exploration of Space. New York: Harper, 1959; Ducrocq A. The Conquest
of Space: Moon Problems and Artificial Satellite: Their Impact on Human Destiny. London:
Putnam, 1961.
5
Stares P. B. Space and National Security. Washington: Brookings Institution, 1987; 
: / . . . , . . ,
. . . .: , 1986.
6
Temple P. Shades of Gray: National Security And The Evolution of Space Reconnaissance.
Washington: American Institute of Aeronautics, 2004; Hitchens T. Future Security in Space:
Charting a Cooperative Course. Washington: Center for Defense Information, 2004.
7

. 
: Space Security Links // CDI Center for Defense Information. [ ].
: http://www.cdi.org. 
, : . . 

2020 . 11 2008 . 
, ;
. 2 2005 // 
. [ ]. : http://
www.kremlin.ru/. . : // 
. 2006. 1. [ ]. : http://www.novosti
kosmonavtiki.ru.
8
McDougall W. The Heavens and the Earth: A Political History of the Space Age. Baltimore:
Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997.
9
Clay M. J. Op.cit. P. 11.
10
Imperfect Unions: Security Institutions Over Time and Space / Ed. by H. Haftendorn,
R. O. Keohane, C. A. Wallender. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999; Detlev W. Common
Security in Outer Space and International Law. Geneva: United Nations Publications. 2006;
: . . 
: . .: 
, 2004.
11
.: Dolman E. C. Astropolitik; Classical Geopolitics in the Space Age. London: Frank
Cass, 2002; Klein J. J. Space Warfare: Strategy, Principles and Policy. London: Routledge, 2006.
12
York H. F. Making Weapons, Talking Peace: A Physicists Odyssey from Hiroshima to
Geneva. New York: Basic, 1987. 
: . . . .: , 1985; . .
// . .: 
, 1987.
13
Krepton M., Clary C. Space Assurance or Space Dominance? The Case Against
Weaponisation of State. Washington: Henry L. Stimson Center, 2003; U.S. Soviet Security
Cooperation: Achievements, Failures, Lessons. New York: Oxford University Press, 1988.

510

14
.: . . // . 2008. 11 
. [ ]. : http://www.russ.ru.
15
.: Civil Space Programs and Global Utilities. Key Trends and 2004 Developments //
Space security 2004. [ ]. : http://www.spacesecurity.org.
16

. 1979
13 1984 . . .
17
.: . . // 
. 2007. . . 5. 2 (14). . 1726.
18
() 
, 
, ,
, 
, , .
, , , ,
, . . .
19
Moltz J. C. Op. cit. P. 302329.
20
1973 
, .

. ( 
1B.) 
. 1979 .
21
National Aeronautics and Space Administration,
.
22
.: : , , / .
. . . .: , 2005.
23
1 2000 

() 
.
24
.: . :
. .: , 2007.
25
Reibaldi G. et al. The ESA Payloads for Columbus A bridge between the ISS and
exploration // ESA bulletin. 2005. May. No 122. [ ]. :
http://www.esa.int/.
26
ATV (Automated Transfer Vehicle)
(), .
, , , 
. 9
2008 . . .
27
HTV (HII Transfer Vehicle) 
,
. 
2009 . . .
28
RAMOS // . RussiaUS.com.
. [ ]. : http://www.rususa.com.
29


. , 4 2000 //
. [ ]. : http://
www.kremlin.ru/.

511

30
Samson V. Could U.S. Missile Defense Policy Restrict Access to ISS? 2008. October 1 //
CDI Center for Defense Information [ ]. : http://
www.cdi.org.
31
Macdonald B. W. China, Space Weapons, and U.S. Security. Washington: Council on
Foreign Relations Press. 2008. October.
32
Samson V. Could U.S. Missile Defense Policy Restrict Access to ISS? 2008. October 1 //
CDI Center for Defense Information. [ ]. : http://
www.cdi.org.
33
GSLV (Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle) 
, 
. . .
34
VSB . . .
35
CIBER ChinaBrazil remotesensing satellite. . .
36
SMART1 (Small Missions for Advanced Research in Technology)
,
. . .
37
1994
. 11 1994
. 12 ,
, . : 14
1994 .
,
, .
. .: Magellan
Mission to Venus // National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Official vebsite. Special
Project. [ ]. : http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/magellan.
38
1970 135,
.
 .
1969 
(AEGIS), .
39
.: . .  .
.: , 1984; . . . .: 
, 2008.
40
. ., . ., . .
. . , . .:
, 2008.
41
.: Joint Vision2010. [ ]. : http://www.dtic.mil;
Joint Vision2020 [ ]. : http://www.dtic.mil.
42
Sigal J. East Asia and the Constrainment of China // International Security. 1996. Spring.
Vol. 20. No 4. P. 107135; Jonston A. I. Chinas New Old Thinking: The Concept of Limited
Deterrence // International Security. 1995/96. Winter. Vol. 20. No 3. P. 542.
43
Report of the Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management
and Organization //  Globalsecurity.org. [ ].
: http://www.globalsecurity.org.
44
Leonard D. U.S. Air Force Plans for Future War in Space. [ ].
: http://www.space.com.
45
The Armys Future Combat System (FCS): Background and Issues for Congress. CRS
Report for Congress. Order Code RL32888. 2008. May 12. [ ].
: http://www.fas.org.
46
National Space Policy, 2006 // SpaceRef Space News as it Happens. Official site. [
]. : http://www.spaceref.com.

512

47
. . 
( ). 6 2000. .
[ ]. : http://www.kremlin.ru.
48
: 
//  Viperson.ru. [ ]. 
: http://www.viperson.ru.
49
.: :
; :
// Viperson.ru. [ ]. : http://
www.viperson.ru.
50
. . 
//
. 2007. 7. . 2942.
51
.: Gill B. and Kleiber M. Chinas Space Odyssey // Foreign Affairs. 2007. MayJune.
Vol. 86. No 3. P. 26; Marder E. Chinese ASAT Test: A Breach of International Law? July 1,
2008 // CDI Center for Defense Information. [ ]. : http:/
/www.cdi.org.
52
Space operations. Air Force Doctrine Document 22. 2006. November 27. [
]. : http://www.fas.org/.

513

27



 

(). 
,

. 
, .

( )1. , 
.
,

: , , .
,

. 

, / 
,
..
.

, 

 (, , , , ) 
.
;

514

27.

( ) ;

..

, ,
. 

1990 .

, 

.
,

,
.


, 

.
70% ,
40%2. 
(, , .)
. ,
 , 

. 
,
,
.

,
. 
,
, 
( , ..),
515

IV. , ,

.

,
().

, 
. ,
.
, , , 

( , ,
), . ,
, , 

, 
.


20022004 . , 
1990 

, 
. 

3. 

  
, ,
. 
: 2002/2004 2006/2007
2006/2007 .
,


. 


( 
)
, ,
516

27.


. ,
, 

 
.

, , 
. 

2010 ( 30 2002 ),

2010 ( 5
2005 ),

20072012 ( 6 2006 ).
.
2004 , 

.
,
( 
), 
( 
,
) 
. 
.

( ,
, )
( , , 
). 

, , ..

,
.
,
. 
517

IV. , ,

,
().
( 3035%).
,

20072012
( ) 
. 
, , 5 25%, 
75%4. ,
:
. 

( 5) 
, 
( )
.

. ,
 (
),
.
0,5%
1,5%.

SBIR STTR (Small Business
Innovative Research Program Small Business Technology Transfer Program) c
2004 , , , 
. ,

( 
). 
, ,
2005 .

, 
,
.
( 2000 ) 
2007 
518

27.

(), 

, 
 .


. 

() .
,
1990 . 
( 80
2000 30 
6), ,
, .

. ,
. ,
, , 
,

.

. 
. 

 , 
,
(  , )7.
4 :
 ( 
), (), (
) ( ). 

(),
(1 2006 ) 
. 10 2006 , 
, 
.
, , , 
519

IV. , ,

, 
. .



. 
.
: 20% 
 .

, ,
.
2003 ().
, 
(
). 
 (), 
1990 .
, 
,
2000 
. 

. 

, 
(). 
, .

,
 
. 
, 20062008 
8. 
,
,
9.

,
. 

520

27.


.
. .
2005 ,  . .
2006 
.



, 20062007 

.
.
( , ), 

. ,
;
. 
.
, 
. 
, 
, 

.
2009 

. 
. . 
: [
. . .] , ... ...
:
, 10.
: 
,
. 
 .
, 
.
, , 
521

IV. , ,



. ,

. , 
( )
, ,
,
( .)
. ,
,
 
 .

,
20062007 . 
, 

. ,
.
, 1990 , ,


. 

( ,
, ..),

.

,

.
(),
(), , ..


. 
, .
,

522

27.

( , ..)

.
, , , 
, , 
, .
, ,
, , 
.
, 
, .11 

12.

,
. 
,

, 
, 
. ,
modus operandi,
.
.
,

13. , 
, , 
, 
,
.

. , 2007
( 
); 2008 
 
. (
14.)
, , ,

, 
523

IV. , ,

,
..


, , ,
, .




 ,
, 2002
2006 ,
.

? 
, ,
?
, 
, 


.
.

(, ,

).
, 
; 
, 1990 ;

; 
.. . 
,
,
,
. , 
:
, 
524

27.

. , 2000

,
15 .. 
. 

, 
.
, , 
,
. 
, 
, ,
..
.
, ,

,
.

:
, 
, , .

,

,
.
20052006 . 2007 
,
, 
, ..

. 
,
. 
,
.
, 

.
525

IV. , ,



( .), 
.

.
(
, 
) 
,
. , 


.
. 

, . 

: 
..
, 

. 

,
.
. 

.
, 
. , (
) , 

16.
,

 . ,
.
,
.
, ,
526

27.

,
,
(

). 

, 
. , 
,
.
.
, 
,

. , 
( ),
(SBIR 2,5%
,
). ,


.
, 

.

, , 
, . , 

, 2009 .

, , ,
. 
,
( , , 
), , . 
, ,
( ). , 

, 
.
527

IV. , ,

, 
,
. 
, , 
.  

, , 
. , , 
, 
.

. 
, , , 

,
.. .
, , 

:
, 

.. ,
,
.

. , 
Sukhoi Super Jet (SSJ)
 . 
, modus
operandi 
/, 
17, ,
,
.

. , , ,
, 

, 
18.
528

27.


,


,
, 
19. 
, 
, ,
,
20. 
. 

. 
, ,
.
, 


. , , 
,
. , ,

,
, 
, , 

.
, ,
.


, 
, (
, ..) , 
. ,
, ,
. , 
; , 
, ; ,
529

IV. , ,


, 
. , 
 , 
,
.
, ( 
)
21.

. ,
(, ,
),
, .
, 

,
.
. , 
, . ,

 .
, , .
, 
.

, , 
,
.
, ,
,
. , 

. , (
, )
.
. 
, 
, 
,

530

27.

. , 
, ,
, . ,
. , ,
,

,

.
, 
. , 

,
(
) . , , 

, , 
.

. ,

. 
. ,
, ,
.

, 
22. , 
( 
),
,
, . 
23 

.
,

. ,


(  ,
531

IV. , ,


). , 
.

,
.
,
,

( ). 
, 
, 
,

, (
),
. , .
, , .,

. 
, , ( ) 
, 
. ,

.
, , ,

, 
. , ,

, 
.
, 

19401960

.

, ,
,
. 
532

27.

. 
,
.
. ,
,
, .

, .
. 
, 
,
.

1

, .: OECD
Science, Technology and Industry Outlook 2006. Paris: OECD, 2006; OECD Science, Technology
and Industry Scoreboard 2007. Paris: OECD, 2007.
2
.: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Outlook 2006.; OECD Science, Technology
and Industry Scoreboard 2007.
3
, 
, , .: . .
. .: , 2004; 
/ . . . , . . , . , . 
. .: , 2006; . . 
: . .: , 2006. 
 .: . .
. .: , 2008.
4
.: :  // 
. 2008. 3 . [ ]. : http://
www.strf.ru/ organization.aspx?CatalogId=221&d_no=16209.
5
., , : .
20072010 .
1 // . 2006. 7 . [ ].
: http://www.primetass.ru/news/ show.asp?id=646262&ct=news; 
//
REGNUM. 2006. 7 . [ ]. : http://
www.regnum.ru/news/751539.html. .: .

.  
. [ ]. : http://www.mon.gov.ru/ruk/
ministr/dok/3231.
6
.: . . . . . 267.
7
 .
8

.: . .

533

 //
2008. .: , 2008.
9
., : Science and Engineering Indicators 2006. National Science Foundation.
2006. Vol. 1. . 431437; OECD Science, Technology and Industry Outlook 2006 ..
10
. : 
// . 2009. 15 .
11
., : // . 2009.
18 ; // 
. 2009. 15 . [ ]. : URL: http://
www.rusnano.com/Publication.aspx?PublicationId=1728 ..
12
., :
// . 2008. 6 . [ ]. : http://www.vz.ru/
news/2008/12/6/236169.html.
13
., : : 
... // Finam.ru. 2008. 12 . [ ]. :
http://www. finam.ru/analysis/forecasts009B8/default.asp.
14
.: : 
// . 2008. 3 . [ ].
: http://www.strf.ru/organization.aspx?CatalogId=356&d_no=14507.
15
. , : Thorsten N. and Orlova D. Russias Outward Investment // Current
Issues. Deutsche Bank Research. 2008. April 30. [ ]. : http://
www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_ENPROD/PROD0000000000224964.pdf.
16
. : 
? 3
2008 (  0701149).
17
, 
. 
.: . . .: , 2007,
(Harvard Business School).
18
. , : Harris J., Shugars J., Westling H. Technology Procurement as a
Market Transformation Tool. Proceedings of the 1998 ACEEE Summer Study on EnergyEfficient
Buildings. Asilomar, CA. August 2002. [ ]. : URL: http://
www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/pdfs/techproc.pdf.
19

. 
.
20
: :  //
. 2008. 3 . [ ]. : http://
www.strf.ru/ organization.aspx?CatalogId=221&d_no=16209.
21
, 
, 19701980 , 
 .. ( .
: ?).
22
. : OECD Science, Technology and Industry
Outlook 2006. . 24, 6778, etc.; . ., . .
 : . .:
, 1999; Japanese Research Parks: National Policy and Local Development //
Regional Studies. Oxford, etc. 1998. Vol. 32. No 5; The Reconfiguration of national innovation
systems the example of German biotechnology // Research Policy. 2004. Vol. 33. No 3 ..
23
., 
: Edler . and J., Georghiou L. Public procurement and innovationResurrecting the demand
side // Research Policy. 2007. September. Vol. 36. No 7.

534


28.

29.
30.

535

536

28

,
, , 
, 

. 
, 
, , , .
, 
, . 
, ,
, ,
,
. 
,
, 
,
.

,

.

. 

. , ,
, . . ,
537

V.


. 
, 
, , 
1.



. 


, 
, . 


. 
, ,
. 

.

, 
, , ( 
), .


 , 
 
.

,
. 
,
. 2.

, ,
. 
, 
, , ,
. , 
538

28.

, 
,
.

,
. 
, 

.

3. 
. ,
, 4.

, , 
, 
,

.
, ,
,
. 
. (
)  
, .

? 
, 
. , 
, ,

.
:  
, 
.



.
,
, ,
539

V.

, .
(. , 
.) 
 
, , 
, .
,

. , 
, 
, 
,
. 
, 
, .
,
. 
,
. 

.
,
: 
. 
, 
5.

,
, 
, 
.
, 

.
, 
,
, 
.
. 

540

28.

( ) 
, 
. , 

, ,
, , .
, 
, 
. ,
.

, ( 
). 

,
,
/ . 
,
, . 
, 
, ,
, 
,  
. ( ,
) 
, 
.
 ,
 
. , 
,

. ,

. 
, 
(, ).
, 

,
.
541

V.

, , 
, .

,

, . 
, 
.



. 
.
, 
. 

,

. , ()

.

, 

. 
, , 
,
( ) 
. 
, , 
.

,

.
, 
, 
. 
. 
, , , ,
542

28.

, , 
.
() 
. 
, 

, . 
: 

. 
,
. ( 
)
, 

.
.

. ,
, 
, . ,

,
. 

(
).
, 

, 
. , 


, ( ,
) 
.
 .
. , 

, 
. 
543

V.

, 
, 
. 
, .
,

.

, 
. ,
, , ,

. ,
, 
( ),


.
. 1980 : 

,
6. 
,
.

,
.

, 
. 
.
, , 
, , ,
.
, 
, , , ,
, ,
7.

. ,
, , .
544

28.

, ,
.
, 
. 

, ,
. 

.  
.


, 
,
. 

(, 
, ). 
.

. 
(, , 
), . 

, ,
. 

.
, 

, , 
.
, 
, 

.


. , , 

545

V.

. , 
, (
, , , ). 
. ,
, 
, , 
, . 
, 
,
.

, 
. , 

.

.

(, ,
 ),
, , 
.

. 

, 

.

, .

, 
, , 
, , .

.

.

. 
546

28.

. 212
.
(
),
. 
. 
.
.

. , 
,
 . 
,
(, 
, ).
,
, .
,
, 
, , , , 
,
. 
, 
. 
,
. 
,

. 
,

.

? . 
. 

.
,  ,
( ) . 

.
547

V.



(,
) 

8. 

. 
, 
.
: 
, 
. 
, 

, 
, 
. ,
9.



,
, ,
, ?

, 

. ,
(  ) .

.
,
.
,
. , 

. 

,
.
548

28.

, 
, , , .

, 
10. 
,
, 
. 

. 
, ,


, . 
, ... , , (
) ...11.
, 
, , , 
, ,


. 

, 12.
,
, 
,
, .
,

, , 13.
(
) ,
, : 
.
, 

.
, 
 
549

V.

, 

, () .
14
( ) 
. , , 
:
.

, 
, 
. :
1) (, 
, 
, ,
);
2) ( , 
; 

);
3) ( 

);
4) (
, 
);
5)  (
,
)15.

, 
,
. : 
,
,
, , 

. ,

550

28.

, ( ,
), 
.
, 
. , 
, ,
( ).
, 16. 
, , 
. , (
, , ), 
,

.

, 
, 
. ,
.
,  

, , 
, , , 

.
,

, , .

. 
 

.

, ,
,
, 
.

,
, 
551

V.

. 



.
, 
, , (
) 
.
,
, 
, . 
, ,
.
,

, . 
. .
, 
, .

,

.
, 
 , .
,
, , , 
.
,
, 
, , 


.
, 
, 

.
, 

552

28.

, ,

, 
. ,
,
.

1
Jachtenfuchs M. and KohlerKoch B. Governance and Institutional Development // European
Integration Theory / A. Wiener and T. Diez (eds.). Oxford, 2004. P. 114.
2
Deutsch K. W. Political Community and the North Atlantic Area. International Organization
in the Light of Historical Experience. New York, 1969.
3
 . //
. 2001. 7. . 5253.
4
.: . // . . /
. . . . ., 2004. C. 302322.
5
utler A. Claire. Locating Authority in the Global Political Economy // International
Studies Quarterly. 1999. March. Vol. 43. No 1. P. 7273.
6
Cox R. W. Structural Issues of Global Governance: Implications for Europe // Gramsi A.
Historical Materialism and International Relations / S. Gill (ed.). Cambridge, 1993.
7
Scharpf F. W. Economic Integration, Democracy and the Welfare State // Journal of Euro
pean Public Policy. 1997. No 4. P. 1836.
8
. , . .: , 2004. C. 279.
9
. . 463.
10
Scharpf F. W. Negative and Positive Integration in the Political Economy of European
Welfare States // Marks Gary, Scharpf Fritz W., Schmitter Philippe C. and Streeck Wolfgang.
Governance in the European Union. London: Sage Publications, 1996. P. 22.
11
Ibid. P. 23.
12
Ibid. P. 38.
13
Morten K. The European Union and Globalisation: Reflections on Strategies of Individual
States // Working Papers 38/2001. Copenhagen Peace Research Institute. P. 2933.
14
., : Gustavsson S. Reconciling Suprastatism and
Democratic Accountability // Democratizing the European Union. Issues for the 21st Century /
C. Hoskyns and M. Newman (eds). Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2000.
, 
, . 




.
15
Bulmer S. and Burch M. The Europeanization of Central Government: the UK and Ger
many in Historical Institutional Perspective // The Rules of Integration / M. Aspinwall and
G. Schneiders (eds). Manchester, 2000.
16
.: Manners J. and Whitman R. G. The difference engine: Constructing and represent
ing identity of the European Union // Journal of European Public Policy. 2003. June. No 10.
P. 380404.

553

29

()
, , 
(). 
, : 
, , 
.

, ,

, , . 
.




. 

: 
, , , 
(), (). 

. ,

.
.
: ,

?
554

29.

, 
: , 
. ,
, , 
. ,
, ,
, 1.
,

. , 
,
, .
. 
,
?

2, 

3. 
, , ,

(desecuritisation).

.
, , 
, 
. , , , 
, (soft security).
, ()


, , 
.
, securitisation 
, desecuritisation.
, 
. 
, , 

, 
. . ,
555

V.

,
... , 
4.. 
, , .

, 
.

.

.
, 
, ,
. 
, 
. 
, .

: , 
5.
,
, , 
.
, , 
, , 
.

.


,

. 
,
.


, 

, , 
.
556

29.



, 

.  
 
.
.

(, , ), 
6. 1945


.


,

, , 
. 
,
,
. 
, 
,
,
, .
() 

. 
:
, . 

7. 
,
:
8, 9.
, , 
,
.
557

V.


. 
. , 
.

, , , 
,

. 1990
,
2000 
 10.

.
,
, 

. 
:
, , 
, 
, . ,
, 
. , 
.

.
,

. 
deterritorisation debordernisation,
.
1990 , 
, , , 
11. ,
. ,

(reborderisation) ,
, 12.

:
558

29.

.
, 
13.
I
. 
, , 
, 
. 
(, ), 
.

. 
, 
.
,
.

( 90%)
, . 

. 
,
, (
), .


. , 
, ,

. 
, ,
.
: 

1%, .
,
.
, 
, . 

. : 
559

V.

, 
.
, 
.
:
, 
, ,
, , .


.
.
, 2001

(smart border).
. 
1970 ,
.
, , 

, .

, 
, 
. 

. .





. 

,
. 
, .

: . ,

. , (
560

29.

1000%), 
, , , 
.
, , 
, 
, , 
.

.
, 
.
, ,


. 
, 

14.
,
. (
)
, .

, 
. .
, ,
, , 
, .
, 15.
1970 
16. 

(1 ), 1950 ,
. 
.
, , 
. , 

, 
. ,

561

V.

.
,

17. 
, 
, , , (
).
, 
, 
.
, 
18. 
, 
.
,

, ,
. 
, , 
, 
, 
.

(, ) ,
, ,
19. , 
, 
,
. , , 
 
, .

20.
2000 

, 
. 
. ,
.

. 
562

29.


. 
 , 
, . ,


. : 

.

,
. 
, 

21.


(surveillance studies). 
22. 

.

, 
.

.
(body experience). 
,
(), 
, . 
,
, .
, 
, 
. 

.

, 
.
563

V.

, 
 . 
,
.
:
( )

;

;

;

;

;

.

. 1960 
.
,
.
, 
23.
1990 
, . 
24 25.
.
, 
(, 
) 
,
. 
26.
, ,
. . , 
564

29.


,
, . 
27.


( 11 ). 
,
. 

... 
 . 

. , ,
.
, ,
, ( ) 

.
, ,
.


.

, , , 
,
,
, . 

, 
,
28.

, 
.
, (), .

, ,
(securitisation). 
,
565

V.


, .

. 
. 
,
( ) 

6%.
(bordernisation)

, 
.

.

. 
, . 
,
29.

. 

( ) .
,
. 
,
: , , .
. 
.

:
, .
,
,
.
, ,
.

. , 
. 
566

29.


,
. 
, 
.
, 
, .

, 
.


, , 
. ,

 ,
.

1
. ., . ., . . .
. .: . , 2001. . 8.
2
., : . : ? //
.  . [ ]. :
http://www.eurasianhome.org/xml/t/expert.xml?lang=ru&nic=expert&pid=768.
3

, ,
Border Management
in an Insecure World (, 2006).
4
Liotta P. H. Through the Looking Glass: Creeping Vulnerabilities and the Reordering of
Security // Security Dialogue. 2005. Vol. 36. No 1. . 69.
5
( . irredento , 
) 
. . .
6
: . ., . . 
. .: , 2001. . 302313.
7
Aron R. Paix et guerre entre des nations. P.: CalmannLvy. 1984. P. 290.
8
Herz J. Rise and Demise of the Territorial State // World Politics. 1957. Vol. 9. No 4. P. 482;
Aron R. Op. cit. P. 290, 392.
9
Keohane R. O., Nye J. S. Transgovernmental Relations and International Organization //
World Politics. 1974. Vol. 27. No 1. P. 56.
10
.: Andreas P. R. Sovereigns and Smugglers: Enforcing the U.S. Mexico Border in the
Age of Globalization / A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Cornell
University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy. S. l,
1999. P. 148.
11
., : Lash S., Urry J. Economies of signs and space. London: Sage, 1994. P. 28.

567

12
Albert M. On Boundaries, Territory and Postmodernity: An International Relations
Perspective // Geopolitics. 1998. Vol. 3. No 1. P. 62.
13
Paasi A. Boundaries as Social Processes: Territoriality in the World of Flows // Geopolitics.
1998. Vol. 3. No 1. P. 6988.
14
: Donaldson J. Fencing the Line:
Analysis of the Recent Rise in Security Measures along Disputed and Undisputed Boundaries //
Global Surveillance and Policing. Borders, Security, Identity / Ed. by E. Zureik and M. B. Salter.
Portland: Willan Publishing, 2005. P. 173193. , 
()
.
15
Andreas P. R. Op. cit. P. 29, 31, 55.
16
, 78,1
. 1978 1,4 . 2007 .
17


, .
.: . . 
// . 2007. 3; . 
: ? // . 2007. 5.
18
Andreas P. R. Op. cit. P. 45.
19
: Dunn T. J. Op. it.
20
., : Hills A. Border Security in the Balkans: Europes Gatekeepers. Oxford;
New York: Oxford University Press, 2004.
21
.: Ackleson J. Directions in border security research // The Social Science Journal.
2003. Vol. 40. Issue 4. P. 579580; Stoddard E. R. U.S. Mexico Borderlands Studies:
Multidisciplinary Perspectives and Concepts. El Paso: The Promontory, 2002. P. 131.
22
11 
2001 Surveillance and Society 
2002 . [ ]. : http://
www.surveillanceandsociety.org/journal.htm. 2006 
Surveillance Studies Network.
23
.: Barth F. Introduction // Ethnic Groups and Boundaries. The Social Organization of
Culture Difference / Ed. by F. Barth. Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1969. P. 938.
24
Paasi A. Constructing Territories, Boundaries and Regional Identities // Contested Territory.
Border Disputes at the Edge of the Former Soviet Empire / Ed. by T. Forsberg. Aldershot: Edward
Elgar Publishing Limited, 1995. P. 43.
25
., : Van Houtum H. Op. cit. P. 6265; Schack M. Regional Identity in Border
Regions: The Difference Borders Make // Journal of Borderlands Studies. 1991. Vol. 16. No 2.
. 100.
26
Diez T. Borders: From Maintaining Order to Subversion // New Frontiers of Europe:
Opportunities and Challenges ( : ) / .
. . . .: () , 2003. P. 131134; Henrikson A. K. Facing
Across Borders: The Diplomacy of Bon Voisinage // International Political Science Review. 2000.
Vol. 21. No 2. P. 128129; Hocknell P. R. Boundaries of Cooperation. Cyprus, de Facto Partition
and the Delimitation of Transboundary Resource Management. Hague: Kluwer Law International,
2001. P. 5963.
27
Bigo D. Security, Borders, and the State // Borders and Border Regions in Europe and
North America / Ed. by P. Ganster, A. Swedler, J. Scott, W.D. Eberwein. San Diego: San Diego
University Press, 1997. P. 81104.
28
.: Donnan ., Wilson T. Borders: Frontiers of Identity, Nation and State. Oxford; New
York: Berg, 1999.
29
, 1% 
. .: . . 
// . 2007. 3.

568

30




. , 

, ,
.
,

.


. 
, ,
. , , 
 , , .

,


.
,
, , 
,

, .

, , 
. ,

569

V.

,
, ,
, ( , )
.
, 
.
, 

, 
,  ?
, . ,
, , 
, 


: 
, 


,
, 
.
, 

 . 
,
. , ,
 ,
. , 


, , 
. , , 
,
. , 

. 

.
. ,
( 
570

30.

) . 
, 
, 
.

.
, 
,
,
, , .


,
, 1. ,

. ,
:
;
: ,

;
2 
, , 
.
, ,
. 
. ,
.

.
.
. 
.
, , ,
()3
4. 
571

V.

, 5.
,
. 
6 

( 2002 ), , . 
 
.

. ,


, 80% ( 
) , 

,
7.
,

.


. 

.
,
, 
19601970 
.
, 
,
.
( ), . 


,

.
(case studies),
( ) 
572

30.

. 
, ,
 ,
.
, 
, ,
,
,
, 
 . ,
,  ,
. 

,

 .

 ()8 

()9



.
. , ,
10, 
( ) ,
11.

,

.
(, 
) 
( ), ,
 
,
,

.
573

V.

,

, , 
, . , ,
,

.

, , 

. , 
1991

, , , 
. 
, , ,
, .

, 
, , 
,

.


,
, 
12.


, , ,
 . 
,
( 1951 ).

( 
, )
30 1960 1990 . ,
, 
. , , 
574

30.


,  ,
, . ,
,

, 35 
1973 13. 


.
.


, 
, 
,
, 
.


, , , 
.
.

,
, 
, 
.
()

,
:
, ,
;
;
, 
, 
;


;
575

V.


, 

14.

, 
, , , 
, ,
. 
, , 

.
.
.
 
. , 

. , ,
,
. 

, , , 
. ( )

.
,
, 
, , 
. , , . 
, , 
,
15.
, . 

.
, , . ,
 . 

, . 
 . 
576

30.

,
. 
.  
. , 
, 
.
, 16.

, , , 
.
,
, 
,
. ,
,
.



, 
, 
. 
17
, 
, .
1970 ( )
2000 ( )
,

. ,
, ,
.
, , 
, ,
, ,

.  
, , 
.
577

V.

, ,
. 
.

,
, 

(, , ,
). 

, 

. ,
, 
,  
.
 
, 
, . ,
, .
, 

, . 


( , 
). 
.
1970 ,
, 
. ,
,
, 
,

.
2000 .
18

, , 
.
578

30.

, 
, , 
, . ,

, 
1967 1976 . 
, : , 

,
.
,
.

: , 
, 
? 
() , ,

,
. ,
.
:
,
, 
. 
,
, , , .

, , , .

, .

. 
(

).
,  
,
( 
, ), (
). 
579

V.

,
(). 

(ASEAN way19).
,
, 
, 
1960 .
, 

.
( ). 
 , 
.
.
, 

(1950 ), (1960 ) .


1950 20. 

21,
1973 . (
1965 )
, 22.


.
.
 ,

.


, .
: 
, ,
, ,
.
580

30.



 23.
.
, 1960 , 
. 1970 
1980 . 1980 

.
. 


: , . 

 .
. 
.
: 
, , , 
, 
, 
 .
, , 
,
. 
, , 

 ,

1989 , 
. . 
, 
.
, . 
.

. 1989 
() 
.
, 
581

V.


. 1999
.
,
20 . , 

,

.
, ,

.
1998 . 
.
, 
.

19971998 . 
, ,
.

, .

, ,
. 
(1997). 2003 

. 2015
.
. 

2005 . 
,
, 

.


. ,

582

30.

. 
. ,
19501970
.
. , ,
.
, .
,
. 
, , ,
, ,
, . 
.

. ,
. 

,
( ) 
24. ,

.
, 

.

: 
,

, .

-


. . 
,
. : 
,
( ) .
583

V.

,
, 
.
.
, , 
. .
. 
,
, , , . 

( . .
). 1980 
25. 
. 
. ,

.


.
.

. 
.

.
 
. 


 . ,
, .

. ,
, , , 
. , 
,
. 
, 
.
584

30.

. , 

, . 
, 
.

? , 
. 
( 
. ). ,
.
, 
, ( )
( ) 
. 
. 
( , , 
) ,
, 

.

. ( 
) ( ) .
,
,
, ,

. 
,
. 
: .
, 
. ,
, , 
. 
 .
.

, , , 
585

V.

, . 

, . 

, . 

. 
, , . 
, . ,
 .
, 
.
, , ,

(
) . 
, 
26.
, ,

. 
, 
, .
, , 

. 
, 
,

,
, ,

.

1
The European Integration Theory / A. Wiener T. Diez (eds). Oxford: Oxford University
Press, 2005. P. 5461.
2
, 
,
, ,
, . 

586


,
.
3
 ,
, , , , .
14 2005 .
4
, 
, 
, ,
. , .
5
. . : .
., 1999. . 1119.
6

. , 

( 
).
, , . 

( ,
, , 
 ).
7
() () 
, 
, ,
.
, 
. 
, ,
, , . .: . . 
: . ., 1999.
8
(the Association of South East Asian Nations) 
, , 1967 . 
, , , , , 
, , , , .
9
(Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation)  
, ,
1989 . 21 
(, , , , , , , , 
, , , , , , , , 
, , , , ).
10
The Mercosur on its way to supranationality (A comparison with the European Union).
[ ]. : http://www.onzek.at/stefan/en/law_mercosur.htm.
11
, , 
( , ),
, , 
.
12
Beeson M. Regionalism and Globalisation in East Asia. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007.
P. 218.
13
1973 ,
.
14
Hettne B. Globalisation and the New Regionalism: the Second Great Transformation /
B. Hettne, A. Inotai and O. Sunkel (eds). Globalism and the New Regionalism. London:
Macmillan, 1999. P. 324.

587

15

Ibid. P. 218.
Avery D. H. Poole. Cooperation in Contention: The Evolution of ASEAN Norms. University
of British Columbia YCISS Working Paper. 2007. January. No 44. P. 5.
17

,
.
, 
 
.
18
, (The Treaty Establishing a Constitution
for Europe).
19
ASEAN way ( ) ,

 . 

. , 
( )
, 
.
20
, , 
(1948), 
. ( 
.) 
1949 .
,
. 1940
(, ), 
.
21
1984 .
22
Beeson M. Regionalism and Globalisation... P. 217.
23
, , 
. 
, 
.
24

. .:
. . : (19691997 .) ., 1999. . II;
. .: , 1993.
25

, 2003 
. , 
: Bell D., Brown D., Jayasuriya K., Jones D. M. Towards Illiberal Democracy in Pacific
Asia. New York, 1993.
26
McCormic, J. The European Union: Politics and Policies . Colorado: Westview, 1999. . 45.
16

588


. . 
. .: , 2009.
. . . .: , 2005.
. . . .: , 2005.
. . , , . .: , 2008.
. . . 
. 19451995. .: , 1997.
. ., . . . 1945
2008 . .: , 2009.
. ., . ., . . 
. .: , 2002.
. . . .: ,
2009.
. . . 
. 2 ., . . .: , 2008.
19912002: 
: 4 . / . . . . .: , 2002.
. . : 

19402000 . .: ; +, 2007.
. . 
. .: , 2004.
. 
/ . . . . ; . . .: , 2008.
. .
. .: , 2008.
. . . .: , 2007.
. . : . 2 ., . . .:
, 2007.
/ . . . . . .: 
, 2007.
:
/ . . . , . . . .: , 2009.
/ . . . ,
. . . .: , 2008.
: , , / . .
. . , . . , .: , 2004.
: . / .
. . . .:  , 2009.
: 5 . . 1: XIX XX . . 2: 1920
1950 . . 3: 19601985 . . 4: 19851995 . . 5: 19952006 .
.: , 2008.
: 
/ . . . . .: , 2008.
589


/ . . . . . 
. .: , 2008.
. : . .:
, 2009.
C : 4 . 19182003.
/ . . . . . III. .: , 2000.
IIIIV. .: , 20032004.
/ .
. . . .: , 2004.
. . 19912004. 
 . .:
, 2004.
. . 
/ . . . . , . . . .: 
, 2007.
. . 
. . .: , 2008.
. ., . . .
.: , 2008.
. . . 
. .: , 2005.
. . . 
 (19912002). .:
, 2002.
/
. . . . .: , 2008.
. :
. .: , 2004.
: , /
. . . . .: , 2009.

590

, 
,
()
, 
. . .
, ,

, ()

, , 
() , 

, , 
, ()
, 
,
, 

, 
(Ph. D.), , ()

, 


,

,
()
,
()

. .
, , 

591

,

,
(Ph. D.), () , 


, 
. . , 
, 

, 
,

,
()
,
(Ph. D.),  ()
,
,
()




. .
. . , . .
. .
. .
25.01.2010. 60901/16.
.. . 37,0. 2000 .

111141 , , . 8.
email: info@aspectpress.ru www.aspectpress.ru
. (495)3067801, 3068371

143200, , . , 93.
592