FOREX

Los Angeles, California

2001


1.
1.1.
.
, (
, ,
,
).

.

1.2.
1.3.
(Spot market)

2
2.1.

2.2.

3.
3.1.

3.2.

()
()

The Journal of Commerce

-

3.3.
-

4.
4.1.

4.2.

4.3. ,

4.4.






, , ,

4.5.

4.6.

4.7.
()

(ATR)

(CCI)
(DMI)

- (MACD)
(Momentum)
(RSI)
(ROC)
%R (Williams %R)

5.
5.1.
5.2.
6.

1.
1.1.

?
.

. ,
,
,
,
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.
,
.

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-,

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,
.
, cable ().
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(
,
).
, 35
.
(),
,
.
,

, stand-by.
stand-by - ,
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,
,
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70- ,
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1977 5 . , 1987 .
600 ., 1992 . 1
2000 . .
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.
.
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. 1999.
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.
5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200
500 (. . 1.1) 1 2 50, 20,10, 5, 2 1 .
,
- .
.

. ,
()

( ).

. 1.1. .

(repurchase agreements),

( 15 )
.
.
,
.
, ().
- (matched sale-purchase
agreements) .
-,

,
( 7 ).
.
.
, .

. , ,
1962.,
. ,
1990-1991.
.

...


. ,
.
: (naked
intervention) (sterilized).
,
. , , -
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, -
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,
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.

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1.2.

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. :
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.
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(position limit) (loss limit).

, .
, ,
stop-loss .
. ,
,
- .

(. ).
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, .
,
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.


.
,

(clearinghouse).
:
1. (Replacement risk), ,

.
2. , -
.

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.
.
.

.

1.3.

(Spot Market).
() 37% (. .
1.2).
( ). , ,
,
. ,
.

37%

57%

1%
5%
1

1.2. 1998 : 1- ; 2 ; 3
; 4 .

,

,
, .

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.
, ,
.

.

. , ,
, ,
, ,
.
,
,
(), (,
USD/JPY = 133.27/133.32, , , USD/JPY = 133.27/32).
( ) bid,
, ( ) ask, offer ,
. ask bid
(spread). , ,
(points, pips).

- , ,
, , .
, ,
.
- ,
, .

. , (24 )
/ 18 . , 100-200
, .
,
, ,
, . ,
4 30 6
.
8 , (. . 1.3).
-
, 50%. ,
.
(overnight orders)
, .
, ,
, ,
,
.

29%

5%

66%

. 1.3. : 1
12 . 4 .; 2 4 8 .; 3 8 . 12

.
,
.
,
.
.
(Forward Market).
:
(forward outright deals) , (swaps).
.
,
1998 57% (. . 1.2).

1.5 900 .
C 3
3 . ,
,
,
. ,
, ,
, .
:
( ) .
. , ,
(points, pips)
bid- ask- .
, , ,
.
(Futures Market).
,
(. . 1.2).
.
,

(trading floors). ..
, ,
, , ,
,
, , .
,
. ,

 .
,
(the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange Clearinghouse). ,
,
, , .
,
, , ..

.
(gaps), ,
(. 4),
, .
,
. , ,
, , .
Bridge, Telerate, Reuters Bloomberg. Telerate

, Reuters Bloomberg
, .
(Options Market).
, (
),

, (writer)
,
.
,
(speculation), (hedging).
,
, .
,
.
, ,

(stop-loss orders).
.
1998 , 5%
(. . 1.4).
, .

.

. ,
(over-the-counter, OTC), ,
. ,
81%, OTC (. . 1.4).

.
,
, .

 , ,
.
, ,
- , , ..

19%

81%

. 1.4. OTC
: 1 OTC; 2 .

,

(margin). (premium), ,
(writer), .
,
(strike (exercise) price), , ,
, (call put)
.
,
.

.

2.
2.1.
(USD).
,
.
.
,
, , , , 1997-1998 .
- .
,
- ,
,
.
.
(Major Currencies) ,
, , .
(EUR).
.

,
- .

,
.
1999 2000 / -
, ,
. ,


.
(JPY).
,
.
, .
, ,
.
,
.
(GBP).
.
,
.
.

.
(CHF).
,
,
. ,
,
.
, .
, ,
.
, .
, ,
, .

, .

2.2.
. ,
, ,
. ,
, ,
.

(open box system),
, ,

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.

( ) ( )
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(bid) (offer ask). ,
(spread) .

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. .
,
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.
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. 80-
.
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.


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,
.

3.

: (
).

- ,
.

3.1.
(Purchasing Power Parity).
()

, .. .
. ,

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, . ,

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. ,
.
,
.
,
. ,
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,
,
- (You are what you drive ,
, , ).
,


. , : (1) , (2)
, , (3)

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,
,
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,
,
.
(Theory of Elasticities).
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, ( )

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(the dynamic monetary approach).
.
,

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.
,
,

3.2.
,

,
.
(
,
).

. .
, .
,
( ).
. , ,
,
,
. , ,
0.4%
0.4%,
.
.
8 30 10 30

. ,
8 30 .
8 20 , ,
.

, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, New York Times
, Business Week. ,
- Bridge Information
Systems, Reuters Bloomberg ,
.

.

(Economic Indicators)
(The Gross National Product).
()
. , ,
, ,
.
, ,
.
(The Gross Domestic Product).
()
, ,
. ,
, . .

.
(Consumption Spending).
, .

.
, ,
.
(Investment Spending).

.
(Government Spending).
,
. ,
1990
.

.
(Net Trade).
.
,
1980 .
.

 .
.

(Industrial Sector Indicators)
(Industrial Production).
,

, ,
- .

.
(Capacity
Utilization). ,
.
,
. ,
.
,
.
81.5%. 85% ,
, .. ,
.
,
, ,
.
(Factory Orders).

().

, ,
,
. .

.
(Durable Goods
Orders). (T)
.
, ,
, .
: , ,
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,
.
,
.
,
.
.
(Business Inventories).
,

. , - ,
. ,

.
.

(Construction Data)
,
. ,
,
.
:
1.

2.
3. .

. ,
.
90- ,
, -
. ,
2000-2001 , , ,
.

, ,
.

(Inflation Indicators)
,
,
.

.
(Producer price index).
() ,
, .
3400 .
:

24%;
7%;
7%;
6%. ,
, .
(Consumer price index).
()
.
, , , ,

 , .

: 38%; 19%;
8%; 7%; 6%.

,

.
(Gross national product implicit deflator).

.
(Gross domestic product implicit deflator).

.
.
.

(Commodity research bureau's futures index).
()
. 21
. :
: , ,
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: , , , ,
: ,
: , ,
: ..

. ,
80- .
The Journal of ommerce.
18 ,
, .
, ,
,
.

(Balance of Payments)
(Merchandise trade balance).
.

.

. 6 :




- .

(Employment Indicators)
,
. ,
(. . 3.1).
.
, .
,
, .
, ,

, .

-
, ,
, .

.
.

. 3.1.

,
.
,
.
,
(employment figure),
, (nonfirm payroll rate).

.
. ,
, ,
, ,
. ,
,
.
(Employment Cost Index).
()

, ,
.
.
(Consumer Spending
Indicators). ,
,
,
, .
(Retail Sales).

, .
,
.
.
, ,
( )
( ).
,
.
(Consumer Sentiment).

,
, , , .
(Auto sales).
, ,
,
, .

,
90- .
,
, .
,
.

(Leading Indicators)
:
;
;

(
);
(,
);
(
);
;

;
.
(Personal Income).
, .
,
, , (
, , ).
.
.

.
.

3.3.
-
.
.

,
.
.

,
.
, 90-
().
.
.

. , ,
, ,
.

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0.5%, ,
. ,
,
, .
, ("Buy on the
rumor, sell on the fact..."). , ,

 , ,
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, ,
.
(a sharp currency move).
,
,
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.
, .
, ,
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, ,
. 1992 1993 ,

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.
, .
,
bid offer 5 100 .
( ,
..),
,
.
.
.
. ,
, .

4.
4.1.

( , )
,
.
(charts)
, , ,

.
,
.
,

 .
,
, ,
.

.
:
1.
,
(
).
2. (Trend is your friend),
(), () ().
. 4.1 4.3.

. 4.1. .

. 4.2. .

. 4.3. .

3. ( ),

.
4.
( 1 ) , ,
(1 ) ,
( ) ,
. () ,
. ,
,
. ( )
. ,
(. .4.4)
, .

,
.

. 4.4.


. . 4.5.

. 4.5.

5. , (. .
4.2).
6. .
, - ,
.
,
.

, .

(Bridge Information Systems, Reuters, Bloomberg),
(The Wall Street Journal, the Journal of Commerce), (
Commodity Perspective, Commodity Trend Service).
.
.
( )
.
,
(percentage retracements):
1.
1/3 (33%), (50%) 2/3 (66%)
. 66%
.
2. (. . 5.1),
, 0.382 (38%), 0.5
(50%) 0.618 (62%) .
3. 1/8
.

4.2.


( ) ( ).
, :
- (open) -
(, , , ,
..);
- (close) -
(, , , , ..);
-
(, , , , ..)
(high);
-
(, , , , ..)
(low).

1 1 . , RoyalForex

1 , 4 , 1 , 30 , 15 , 5 , 1 .
,

.

.

(Line chart). ,
,
.
,
(. . 4.6).

( , , ..).

(gaps).
. ,

.
(ar chart).
- ,
high low, .
, open close,
,
.
(. . 4.7).

4.6. .

.
, ,
, .
- (, ,
..)
(Candles).
. : high, low, open
close (. . 4.8). , ,

.
.

. 4.7. .

(jittai).
, ,
().


. ,
. ,

( 4.8) .
( )
(uwakage) (shitakage),
, low high .
,
- (, ,
..).

. 4. 8. .

4.3. ,
.
.
, ,
,
, ,
(. . 4.1 4.3).
, , ,
.
, ,
. ,

,
. . 4.9, 4.10.
.
(support)
(resistance). ()

. 4.9. .

. 4. 10.
.

 ,
, -
,
. ,
,
, .. .
,
, .
, ,
.
,
.
3% (. .4.10).
.

(. .4.11). ,

(. 4.12).
, ( )
,

. 4.11.
.

,
:
1. , .
(, 1 )
.
2. , (It takes time to break
resistance).
3. ,
(It takes volume to break
resistance).
4. , .

5. (
).

. 4.12.
.

4.4.


(patterns) .
,
. , ,
.
(Head-And-shoulders). .
(rallies) (. 4.13).
,
. ,
(neckline).
. 4.14.

. 4.13.

, 4.13,
. ,
. .
D ,
.
, ( ),
.
, , F,
.

() .
D ( DF 4.13).
.
:
1. , .
2. .
D .
3. .

(..
).
4. . (
).

. 4.14.
.

.
,

() . , ,
.
, ( )
.

 (Inverted Head-And-Shoulders).
(. . 4.15
. 4.16) .
,
, , .
, .
( 3),
.
(1 3) ,
.
.
.
. D
.
,
( ),
. , ,
F,
.
D .
(Double Top).
() (. . 4.17 4.18).
. 4.17, ,
, ,
. ,
,
,
.
, -

. 4.15. .

. 4.16.
.

F.
G, ,
.
.
:
1. ( )
2. ( D)
3. .
F,
,
(.. ).
4. , ,
.
, ,

.
,
() . ,
,
. ,
( ) .
, .
,
. -
,

. ,
,
.

. 4. 17.

. 4.18. .

(Double Top).
(. . 4.19 4.20).
, .
. 4.19, .
, ( D).
,
, .
,
F. G,
, ,
.
(Triple Top).
(. . 4.21
4.22). ,
.

. 4.19.

. 4.20. .

. 4.21,
, (, D
F). ,
,
G.
, .
I, ,
, D.
, .
F. ,
G.
. ,
.

. 4.21.

. 4.22. .

(Triple Bottom).
(. .4.23 4.24).
4.23,
, (, D F).
.
, G.
,
. I,

, ,
D.
. 4.23.

. 4.24. .

, ,
, , ,

 ,
.
(Round Top), (Round
Bottom), (Saucer), (Inverted Saucer).
(.4.25), (.4.26),
(.4.27) (.4.28)
.
.
. ,
, . ,
,
.

. 4.25. .

. 4.26. .

. 4.27. .

. 4. 28.
.

4.5.

, .
.
,
.
:





(Flags).
.

 .
,
, ,
(), , , ,
, .
.
,
(. . 4.29). . 4.29,
. .
,
D. ,
, , .
,
. . 4.29,
140.00 120.00 = 20.00.
125.00 125.00 20.00 = 105.00.
B
B

141

. 4.29.

. 4.30.

. 4.30.
.

(Pennants).
. ,
.
,
(. . 4.31). . 4.31
. D .
D .
D .
. . 4.31,
1.5500 1.4500 =0.1000.
152.00 1.5200 + 0.1000 = 1.6200.
1.6200

1.4500

. 4.31.

,
(. . 4.32). . 4.32
. D .
D .
D .
. 4.32,
139.00 119.00 = 20.00.
120.00 120.00 - 20.00 = 100.00.
120.00

119.00
100.00

. 4.32.

. 4.33.

 (Triangles).
. :
, , .

, , ,
(. . 4.34 4.35).

. 4.33. .

. , ,
. ,
, ,
, .
. 4.34,
.
, D F. , , G.
HH ,
, I
( G) GI.
,
,
.
. 4.34, 1.5500 (
1.5000 1.4000 = 0.1000, 1.4500),
,
, , .
. 4.36
,
.
, .
.
,

 , . . 4.36,
, , , G, .
, B, D, F H,
. ,
AA', I IF.
. 4.36, 1.3000 ( 1.5000 1.4000 = 0.1000,

1.5500

. 4.34. .

. 4.35.
.

 1.4000).
, .
,
,

, (. . 4.37).

. . 4.37, ,
B, D F, , A, C
E, . ,
, GG', G.
. 4.37,

. 4.36.

102.00 ( 101.00 100.00 = 1.00, 101.00).

. 4.38.
.
. , ,
,
(. . 4.39 4.40). ,
,
. ,
( . 4.39) .
.
.
.
. , ,
. , ,
.
, .
,
(. . 4.41 4.42).
, .
.4.41,

 .

. G,
H GH, G'H.
, . 5.31, 1.6200
(1.6100 1.6000 = 0.100, 1.6100).

(. .
4.42). ,
100.00 ( 102.00 101.00 = 1.00, 101.00).
. 4.43.

102.00

101.00

100.00

. 4.37.

. 4.38. .

. 4.39. .

. 4.40.
.

G
1.6200

. 4.41. .

102.00

101.00
100.00

4.42. .

. 4.43. .

4.6.
(gaps)
,

(, ). ,
, , .
, ()
.
.
(Common gaps).
,
, , ..
.
buy, sell.
. 4.44, 4.45. ,
,
12 .
(Breakaway gaps).
. ,

 ,
.
. 4.46, 4.47.
(Runaway gaps). ,
(Measurement gaps),
, .

,

.
.4.48 4.50.
(Exhaustion gaps.).
,
.

.

,
(Reversal Island).
.4.30 4.51, 4.52.

. 4. 44.

. 4. 45. .

.4.46.

. 4.47.
.

. 4.48.

. 4.49. .

. 4.50.

. 4.51.

. 4.52.

4.7.
( )
,
,

.
,
.

.
(Moving Averages).

 ( , , ..)
, ,
, .

,
, , ,

.
,

high, low .
(. . 4.53 4.56).
,
:
1. , ().
2. () ().

(, ) 1, 2 , .., ..

,
.
3. () (),
.
,
,
.
, . 4.53.
. ,
,
(buy)

(sell)
(.
. 4.54).

. 4 .53. () 9- ( ,
, ) .


, , .
,
4 9 , - 4, 9 18
.
5, 20 60 7, 21 90 .
,
4 9 ,
4 9
. ,


4 9 (. . 4.55).

. 4.54. ( )
( - , - ):
buy, sell.

. 4.55. ( )
( - , :
4 , - 9 ): buy, sell.

,
, 4, 9 18
, 4
9 18
9 18 .
, ,
4 9 18

9 18 (. . 4.56).

. 4.56. ( )
( - , :
4 , - 9 , 18 ):
sell, buy.

(Envelopes).
( ) ,
( 2%).
14 . 4.57.

. 4 . 57. ( ) ( )
.

. 4.57
buy.
(Bollinger Bands).

. ,
20
. (. .
4.58) ( )
( ) .

.
.
,
.

. 4. 58.
( , , ).

(Median Price).
high
low. . 4.59.


.
(Average True Range).
,
ATR, .

. . 4.60, ATR
14 ,

.

(Oscillators).

overbought ( )
oversold ( ).
.
, ,
. ,
FX Express.

. 4.59. ( )
.

. 4.60. ATR ( ) .

 (Commodity Channel Index).

, CCI,
.

, .
CCI 8 . 4.61. . 4.61,
CCI 0 -100 +100. CCI>100
( sell),
CCI<100 (
buy).
(Directional Movement Index).
( DMI)
.

. 4.61. CCI .

0 100%. ,
, . DMI
14 . 4. 53.

. 4.62. DMI .

DMI ,
. +DI (
, . 4.62 ) -DI (
, ). ,
+DI DI,
, . 4.62. ,
(ADX). ADX
0 50. ADX, 20, -
. ADX 20
. ADX, 40 ,
, .
(Stochastics).
.
, ,
(high) ,
(low).
, %K %D,
, - . %K ,
%D - .
:
%K = [(CCL -L9)/(H9 -L9)] * 100,

CCL ;
L9 low 9 ;
H9 high 9

%D=(H3/L3) * 100,

H3 (CCL L3);
L3 - (H9 L3).
, 1 100%,
overbought oversold
70% 30%. (..
) 10%, (
) 90%,
. .
. 4.63.
%D %K .
:
1. , %K
%D
2. , %K
%D.
- (Convergence
Divergence of Moving Averages). -
( MACD)
.

 ( )
, .
MACD . 4.64.

- MACD ;
- ;

.4.63.
( - %K, - %D).

- - .
buy , ,

( )
(. . 4.64). sell


.

. 4.64. MACD .

(Momentum). ,
.

.

() :
M=CCP-OCP,

CCP ;
OCP .
, ,
, , ( ),
,
. FX Express
100,
,
( M>100) (
M<100). 14 ,
FX Express, . 4.65.

overbought , oversold.
,
,
.
,
, .
(Relative Strength Index).
, RSI,
.

. 4.65. .

RSI

RSI=100-[100/(1+RS)],

RS - ,
,
, .
RSI 14 . RSI
0 100%. RSI, 30% 70%,
, 85%
15% buy (-
overbought) sell (- oversold).
RSI .
, sell,
RSI ,
buy RSI
. RSI 14
. 4.66.

. 4. 66. RSI
.

(Rate of Change).
, ROC, , , .
, ROC
, close
close
ROC = (CCP/OCP) * 100,

CCP close;
OCP close.
ROC 14 . 4.67.

. 4.67. ROC .

%R (Larry Williams Percent Rate). %R

( W%R)
. %, 10
. W%R 0
100% (. . 4.68). (buy)
80%, (sell) 20%.

.

(. . 4.69).

. 4.68. W%R .

.4.69. :
( ), RSI ( ), (
) MACD ( ).

(Ichimoku Kinko Hyo).

,

. , ,

.
.
, ,

:
Tenkan-sen -
,
, ;
Kijun-sen -
;
Senkou Span -
,
;
Senkou Span B -
,
;
Chinkou Span - ,
.
Senkou "".
,
.
, ,
- . ,
, - .
Chinkou Span
buy, - sell. Kijun-sen ( )
. ,
, , .
, .
Kijun-sen . buy
, Tenkan-sen Kijun-sen ,
sell . Tenkan-sen (" ")
,
.
. 4.70.

. 4.70.
Tenkan-sen ( 9 , ), Kijun-sen ( 26 , ), Senkou Span B A ( 52
, ), Chinkou Span ( 26 , ). buy sell

.

,
,
.

5.
5.1.
,
XII-XIII ..,
( ),
. ( ),
:
1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377,610, 987, 1597, 2584, 4181 ..,
, ,
,
0.618,
, 1.618 ( ,
).

.

, ,
(stop-loss). ,
, 0.618,
61.8% ,
stop-loss . ,
, ,
. ,

, ,
.
5.2. (Elliott Wave Principle)

( - ),
(1871 - 1948),
,
20 .
,
.

() -
, , , ,
-
, ,
. , ,
.

.
(Basic Elliott Wave Pattern)

,
. 1. (Wave)

.
, ,
- . ,
, . 1,
, ..
. (
) 1 5,
A, B C.
,
( . 1 1, 3,
5, ) (Impulse Waves), ,
(2, 4 ), -
(Corrective Waves).
,
(. 2).

,

. ,

,
. ,

 (stop-loss)
(take profit).
, .. ,
. ,
1 ,
.
()
. 2 ,
,
. 3
,
. 4,
, , , . 5,
, ,
.
, -
, .
, ,

. 5.1.

.

.

(cycle)

1 2 3 4 5
A B C

(primary)

1 2 3 4 5

A B C


(intermediate)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

() () ()

(minor)

i ii iii iv v

a b

(minute) 1 2 3 4 5

a b

. 5.2.

()
.
. , 3
, 1.618 1 (. 4), - .
3 2.618 4.618 1.
. 5 1 (
61.8% 3). , 3
, 1.618 1. ,
5 0.382 0.618 ,
( )
.
2 4 .
: 2 61.8% 1,
4 38.2% 50% 3.

1.618 . (
) .
61.8%.


, (1, 3, 5, , , . 1)
:

1. ,
(. 1,2).
2. (Extended Waves),
( , , - )
.
(extension).
(.3).
,
(, ) (. 2, 3).

.
, ,
, , ,
,
.

. 5. 3.

. 5. 4. 3 1,

3. (Diagonal Triangles).

, (Overlap).
(. 5)
, , ,
. ,
,
.
,
-

, . 5.
, ( 1, 3
5)
.
,
,
, ,
. ,
,
, ,
. ,
,
.

. 5. 5. 5

(2, 4, )
(Threes), .. .
:
1. (Flats) (Irregular Flats) .

;
.
3-3-5 (. 6).
4.

. 5. 6. 4

. 5. 7. 2 4 2

2. (Zigzags) , ,
, , 5-3-5 (. 7).
2 .
3. : (contracting), (descending),
(ascending) (expanding), . 7 - 9.
.
- ,
,
, ,
, , ,
. (. 7). , ,
2 4.

. 5. 8. 4

, - ,
(Double and Triple Zigzags), (Double
Threes) (Triple Threes).
. 10.

. 5. 9. .

. 5. 10.

, .
1. 2 1
- . ,
, 2 1,
, ,
, , . 5

. ,
, ,
, . . 11 - 13
.
, (-
) .


.

. 5. 11.

. 5. 12.

. 5. 13.

2. 3 -
, (, . 1).
, .
3. (The Rule of Overlap). (.
14) , ,
.
-.

Sell

_.

~ ~"
-

. 5. 14.

6.


80- 90- .
Candlesticks ,
, ""
(andles).
, ,
.

. ,
. . ,
" "
,
.
, ,
,
.
(- ( ), - (
) ..).

(.. 200 ),
(, .
, 2001) ,
( 60)
,
.
,
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.

80

. 6.1.

,
.

. 6.2.

- .
, .

81

. 6.3.

(. 6.3).
.

.
, , (.
6. 4).
() ,
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.

82

. 6.4. ( )

. 6.5.

()

-
, , (. 6.
6).
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(. 6.7).
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. .
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83

. 6.6.

. 6.7. ( )

,
.
.

,
(. 6.8).
, .

84

. 6. 8. ( ) . -.

- ()

- (), . 6.9, ,
, . .
, -.

. 6.9. - .

- ()

- ,
( . 6.10). ,
.
.

85

. 6.10.

, (, ,
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.

. 6.11.

()

,
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.
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.

86

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87

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.

. 6.15.

.
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88

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()
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30 %.

. 6.16.

,
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89

. 6.17.

( )

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. 6.18.

.
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90

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()

, . 6. 20,
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.

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91

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92

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. 6.23.

,
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94

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. 6.25.

95

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. 6.27.

.
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96

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97

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.

. 6.30.

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6.32). ,
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101

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. 6. 36.

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.

102

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.
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(. 6.40 6.41)

.

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. 6. 40.

104

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6.45). ,
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108

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109

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.

113

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. 6. 55.

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114

. 6. 56.

,

, .
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.
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.
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(-),
.

. 6. 57.

115

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116