Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
БУРЕ,
Е. М. ПАРИЛИНА,
А. А. СЕДАКОВ
МЕТОДЫ
ПРИКЛАДНОЙ
СТАТИСТИКИ
в R и Excel
РЕКОМЕНДОВАНО
УМК ПМ
ПУ СПбГУ в качестве учебного пособия
для студентов вузов, обучающихся по направлениям
«Прикладная математика и информатика», «Фундаментальная
информатика и информационные технологии», а также другим
математическим и естественнонаучным направлениям
и специальностям в области техники и технологий
САНКТПЕТЕРБУРГ
МОСКВА•КРАСНОДАР
2016
ББК 22.172я73
Б 90
Ââåäåíèå . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
Ãëàâà 1. Ñòàòèñòè÷åñêîå îöåíèâàíèå . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.1. Îïèñàòåëüíàÿ ñòàòèñòèêà . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.2. Îñíîâíûå çàêîíû ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.3. Òî÷å÷íûå îöåíêè. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
1.3.1. Ìåòîä ìîìåíòîâ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.3.2. Ìåòîä ìàêñèìàëüíîãî ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
1.4. Èíòåðâàëüíûå îöåíêè. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
1.4.1. Òî÷íûå äîâåðèòåëüíûå èíòåðâàëû . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.4.2. Àñèìïòîòè÷åñêèå äîâåðèòåëüíûå èíòåðâàëû . . . . . . . 21
1.4.3. Àñèìïòîòè÷åñêèå äîâåðèòåëüíûå èíòåðâàëû
äëÿ ïàðàìåòðîâ äèñêðåòíûõ ðàñïðåäåëåíèé . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
1.5. Ñòàòèñòè÷åñêîå îöåíèâàíèå â ïàêåòàõ
ïðèêëàäíûõ ïðîãðàìì. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
1.5.1. Ñòàòèñòè÷åñêîå îöåíèâàíèå â Excel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
1.5.2. Ñòàòèñòè÷åñêîå îöåíèâàíèå â R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Ãëàâà 2. Ñòàòèñòè÷åñêèå ãèïîòåçû . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.1. Îáùàÿ ñõåìà ïðîâåðêè ñòàòèñòè÷åñêèõ ãèïîòåç . . . . . . . 32
2.2. Êðèòåðèè ñîãëàñèÿ äëÿ ïðîñòûõ è ñëîæíûõ ãèïîòåç . . 34
2.2.1. Êðèòåðèé ñîãëàñèÿ Ïèðñîíà χ2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
2.2.2. Êðèòåðèé ñîãëàñèÿ Êîëìîãîðîâà. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36
2.2.3. Êðèòåðèé ñîãëàñèÿ ω 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
2.2.4. Êðèòåðèè ñîãëàñèÿ Êîëìîãîðîâà è ω 2 äëÿ ñëîæíûõ
ãèïîòåç . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
2.2.5. Êðèòåðèè ñîãëàñèÿ â R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
2.3. Êðèòåðèè îäíîðîäíîñòè . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
2.3.1. Êðèòåðèé îäíîðîäíîñòè ÊîëìîãîðîâàÑìèðíîâà . . 44
2.3.2. Êðèòåðèé îäíîðîäíîñòè ÊîëìîãîðîâàÑìèðíîâà
â R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
2.3.3. Ðàíãîâûé êðèòåðèé îäíîðîäíîñòè Âèëêîêñîíà . . . . . 47
3
2.3.4. Ðàíãîâûé êðèòåðèé îäíîðîäíîñòè ÌàííàÓèòíè . . 49
2.3.5. Êðèòåðèè îäíîðîäíîñòè Âèëêîêñîíà
è ÌàííàÓèòíè â R, Excel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
2.4. Êðèòåðèè ðàâåíñòâà ñðåäíèõ è äèñïåðñèé . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
2.4.1. Êðèòåðèé Ñòüþäåíòà . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
2.4.2. Êðèòåðèé Ñòüþäåíòà â R è Excel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
2.4.3. Êðèòåðèé ðàâåíñòâà ` ñðåäíèõ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
2.4.4. Êðèòåðèé ðàâåíñòâà ` ñðåäíèõ â R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
2.4.5. Êðèòåðèé ÔèøåðàÑíåäåêîðà . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
2.4.6. Êðèòåðèé Áàðòëåòòà . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
2.4.7. Êðèòåðèè ÔèøåðàÑíåäåêîðà è Áàðòëåòòà â R . . . . 64
2.4.8. Êðèòåðèé ÔèøåðàÑíåäåêîðà â Excel . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
2.5. Êðèòåðèè î çíà÷åíèè ïàðàìåòðîâ ðàñïðåäåëåíèé . . . . . 68
2.5.1. Êðèòåðèé î çíà÷åíèè ìàòåìàòè÷åñêîãî îæèäàíèÿ
íîðìàëüíî ðàñïðåäåëåííîé ãåíåðàëüíîé ñîâîêóïíîñòè . . . 68
2.5.2. Êðèòåðèé î çíà÷åíèè äèñïåðñèè íîðìàëüíî
ðàñïðåäåëåííîé ãåíåðàëüíîé ñîâîêóïíîñòè . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
2.5.3. Êðèòåðèè î çíà÷åíèÿõ ïàðàìåòðîâ íîðìàëüíî
ðàñïðåäåëåííîé ãåíåðàëüíîé ñîâîêóïíîñòè â R, Excel . . . . 70
2.5.4. Êðèòåðèé î çíà÷åíèè ïàðàìåòðà ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
Áåðíóëëè . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
2.5.5. Êðèòåðèé î çíà÷åíèè ïàðàìåòðà ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
Áåðíóëëè â R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
2.5.6. Êðèòåðèé çíàêîâ äëÿ îäíîé âûáîðêè . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
2.5.7. Êðèòåðèé çíàêîâ â R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Ãëàâà 3. Ðåãðåññèîííûé àíàëèç . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
3.1. Ëèíåéíûé ðåãðåññèîííûé àíàëèç . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
3.1.1. Ñïåöèôèêàöèÿ ìîäåëè . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
3.1.2. Ìåòîä íàèìåíüøèõ êâàäðàòîâ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
3.1.3. Ñâîéñòâà îöåíîê ìåòîäà íàèìåíüøèõ êâàäðàòîâ. . . .83
3.1.4. Ïîñòðîåíèå äîâåðèòåëüíûõ èíòåðâàëîâ è ïðîâåðêà
ñòàòèñòè÷åñêèõ ãèïîòåç . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
3.1.5. Ëèíåéíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ â Excel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
3.1.6. Ëèíåéíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ â R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
3.2. Áèíàðíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .91
3.2.1. Ëîãèò è ïðîáèò ìîäåëè áèíàðíîãî âûáîðà . . . . . . . . . . 93
3.2.2. Ñðàâíåíèå çíà÷åíèé ôóíêöèé íîðìàëüíîãî
è ëîãèñòè÷åñêîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèé . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
3.2.3. Îöåíèâàíèå ïàðàìåòðîâ â ëîãèò è ïðîáèò ìîäåëÿõ . 97
4
3.2.4. ×èñëåííûå ìåòîäû íàõîæäåíèÿ îöåíîê â ëîãèò
è ïðîáèò ìîäåëÿõ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
3.2.5. Ïðîâåðêà ãèïîòåç î çíà÷èìîñòè ïàðàìåòðîâ ëîãèò
è ïðîáèò ìîäåëåé áèíàðíîãî âûáîðà . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
3.2.6. Êðèòåðèé Âàëüäà . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
3.2.7. Êðèòåðèé îòíîøåíèÿ ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
3.2.8. Êðèòåðèè àäåêâàòíîñòè ìîäåëåé
áèíàðíîé ðåãðåññèè . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
3.2.9. Áèíàðíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ â R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
3.3. Êâàíòèëüíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
3.3.1. Óðàâíåíèå êâàíòèëüíîé ðåãðåññèè . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
3.3.2. Êâàíòèëüíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ â Excel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .119
3.3.3. Êâàíòèëüíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ â R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
3.4. Ðèäæ-ðåãðåññèÿ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
3.4.1. Ïðîáëåìà ìóëüòèêîëëèíåàðíîñòè . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
3.4.2. Îöåíêè ìåòîäà ðèäæ-ðåãðåññèè . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
3.4.3. Ðèäæ-ðåãðåññèÿ â R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Ïðèëîæåíèÿ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
Ïðèëîæåíèå 1. Ðàâíîìåðíî ðàñïðåäåëåííûå ñëó÷àéíûå
÷èñëà . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
Ïðèëîæåíèå 2. Ðàñïðåäåëåíèå Ïóàññîíà ñ ïàðàìåòðîì α . 127
Ïðèëîæåíèå 3. Òàáëèöà çíà÷åíèé ôóíêöèè
áèíîìèàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ñ ïàðàìåòðîì p â ñåðèè
èç n èñïûòàíèé . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Ïðèëîæåíèå 4. Òàáëèöà çíà÷åíèé ôóíêöèè ñòàíäàðòíîãî
íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
Ïðèëîæåíèå 5. Òàáëèöà çíà÷åíèé ôóíêöèè ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
Êîëìîãîðîâà . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Ïðèëîæåíèå 6. Òàáëèöà êâàíòèëåé χ2α,n óðîâíÿ α
χ2 -ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ c n ñòåïåíÿìè ñâîáîäû . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
Ïðèëîæåíèå 7. Òàáëèöà êâàíòèëåé tα,n óðîâíÿ α
ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Ñòüþäåíòà c n ñòåïåíÿìè ñâîáîäû . . . . . . . . . 134
Ïðèëîæåíèå 8. Òàáëèöà êâàíòèëåé Fα,n,m óðîâíÿ α
ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Ôèøåðà c n è m ñòåïåíÿìè ñâîáîäû . . . . . . . 135
Ïðèëîæåíèå 9. Òàáëèöà êâàíòèëåé ñòàòèñòèêè
Âèëêîêñîíà . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Ëèòåðàòóðà . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
5
Ââåäåíèå
6
òàêæå îòìåòèì âàæíûå â ìåòîäîëîãè÷åñêîì îòíîøåíèè êíèãè
[1, 2, 5, 9, 19, 23, 31, 32, 39, 41, 46, 52, 54].
Ïðè íàïèñàíèè òðåòüåé ãëàâû, à èìåííî, ðàçäåëà, èçëàãàþ-
ùåãî îñíîâû ëèíåéíîãî ðåãðåññèîííîãî àíàëèçà, èñïîëüçîâàëñÿ
ìàòåðèàë èç êíèã Ñ. Ñ. Âàëëàíäåðà [10] è W. H. Greene [46]. Åùå
îäíîé âàæíîé ïðèêëàäíîé ìåòîäèêîé àíàëèçà äàííûõ ÿâëÿåòñÿ
áèíàðíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ, â ÷àñòíîñòè, ìîäåëè ëîãèò è ïðîáèò àíàëè-
çîâ. Â òðåòüåé ãëàâå áûëè èñïîëüçîâàíû ñòàòüè è ìîíîãðàôèè
[37, 46], [50][55]. Ïîäðîáíîå èçëîæåíèå ìîäåëè ðèäæ-ðåãðåññèè
ìîæíî íàéòè â [48, 49], à êâàíòèëüíîé ðåãðåññèè â [42, 51].
Âîïðîñàì ïðàêòè÷åñêîãî ïðèìåíåíèÿ ðàçëè÷íûõ ñòàòèñòè-
÷åñêèõ ìåòîäèê ïîñâÿùåíû ñëåäóþùèå ðàáîòû [2, 5, 8, 31, 32, 33,
35, 40, 43, 53, 55], êîòîðûå ìîãóò áûòü èñïîëüçîâàíû ïðè ïðî-
âåäåíèè ïðàêòè÷åñêèõ çàíÿòèé ïî êóðñó òåîðèè âåðîÿòíîñòåé è
ìàòåìàòè÷åñêîé ñòàòèñòèêè.
Ó÷åáíîå ïîñîáèå ñîäåðæèò ìàòåðèàëû, èñïîëüçóåìûå àâòî-
ðàìè ïðè ïðîâåäåíèè ïðàêòè÷åñêèõ çàíÿòèé ïî êóðñàì ¾Òåî-
ðèÿ âåðîÿòíîñòåé è ìàòåìàòè÷åñêàÿ ñòàòèñòèêà¿ è ¾Ïðàêòèêóì
íà ÝÂÌ (ìàòåìàòè÷åñêàÿ ñòàòèñòèêà)¿, ïðîâîäèìûõ íà ôàêóëü-
òåòå ïðèêëàäíîé ìàòåìàòèêè ïðîöåññîâ óïðàâëåíèÿ Ñàíêò-
Ïåòåðáóðãñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâåííîãî óíèâåðñèòåòà.
Àâòîðû êíèãè ñòðåìèëèñü ñäåëàòü èçëîæåíèå ïîíÿòíûì è
äîñòóïíûì ñàìîìó øèðîêîìó êðóãó ñòóäåíòîâ, â ÷àñòíîñòè îáó-
÷àþùèõñÿ ïî íàïðàâëåíèÿì ¾Ïðèêëàäíàÿ ìàòåìàòèêà è èíôîð-
ìàòèêà¿, ¾Ôóíäàìåíòàëüíûå èíôîðìàòèêà è èíôîðìàöèîííûå
òåõíîëîãèè¿, ¾Ïðèêëàäíûå ìàòåìàòèêà è ôèçèêà¿. Êíèãà ìîæåò
áûòü èñïîëüçîâàíà äëÿ ïðîâåäåíèÿ ïðàêòè÷åñêèõ çàíÿòèé, ñåìè-
íàðîâ, ëàáîðàòîðíûõ çàíÿòèé ïî êóðñàì ¾Òåîðèÿ âåðîÿòíîñòåé
è ìàòåìàòè÷åñêàÿ ñòàòèñòèêà¿, ¾Îñíîâû òåîðèè âåðîÿòíîñòåé è
ìàòåìàòè÷åñêîé ñòàòèñòèêè¿, ¾Ïðàêòèêóì íà ÝÂÌ (ìàòåìàòè-
÷åñêàÿ ñòàòèñòèêà)¿, à òàêæå ¾Ïðèêëàäíàÿ ñòàòèñòêà â R¿.
7
Ãëàâà 1
Ñòàòèñòè÷åñêîå îöåíèâàíèå
8
z1 = x(1) , zk+1 = x(n) , è àíàëîãè÷íûì îáðàçîì îïðåäåëèòü ÷à-
ñòîòû ni , ò. å. îáùåå êîëè÷åñòâî â íàáîðå x(1) , . . . , x(n) ýëåìåíòîâ
âûáîðêè, ïîïàäàþùèõ â èíòåðâàë [zi , zi+1 ), ìîæíî ïîëó÷èòü èí-
òåðâàëüíûé ðÿä
0, x < z1 ,
n1
n(z2 −z1 ) , z1 6 x < z2 ,
n2
n(z3 −z2 ) , z2 6 x < z3 ,
fn (x) =
...
nk
, zk 6 x < zk+1 ,
n(zk+1 −zk )
0, x > zk+1 .
9
0, x < x(1) ,
1
n , x(1) 6 x < x(2) ,
..
.
Fn (x) = (1.1.1)
nk , x(k) 6 x < x(k+1) ,
..
.
1, x > x(n) ,
10
íàçûâàþò èñïðàâëåííîé âûáîðî÷íîé äèñïåðñèåé. Âåëè÷èíû s2 è
s̃2 ñâÿçàíû ìåæäó ñîáîé ñîîòíîøåíèåì
n 2
s̃2 = s .
n−1
11
íóëþ). Åñëè ëåâûé õâîñò ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ¾òÿæåëåå¿, òî êîýôôè-
öèåíò àñèììåòðèè áîëüøå íóëÿ. Åñëè ïðàâûé õâîñò ðàñïðåäåëå-
íèÿ ¾òÿæåëåå¿, òî êîýôôèöèåíò àñèììåòðèè ìåíüøå íóëÿ. Âû-
áîðî÷íûé êîýôôèöèåíò ýêñöåññà E = µ4 /s4 − 3 õàðàêòåðèçóåò
îñòðîòó ¾ïèêà¿ ïëîòíîñòè ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ãåíåðàëüíîé ñîâîêóï-
íîñòè. Äëÿ íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ òåîðåòè÷åñêèå êîýôôè-
öèåíòû àñèììåòðèè è ýêñöåññà, âû÷èñëÿåìûå ïî ðàñïðåäåëåíèþ
ãåíåðàëüíîé ñîâîêóïíîñòè, ðàâíû íóëþ. Åñëè õâîñòû ðàñïðåäå-
ëåíèÿ ¾ëåã÷å¿, à ïèê îñòðåå, ÷åì ó íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ,
òî êîýôôèöèåíò ýêñöåññà áîëüøå íóëÿ. Åñëè õâîñòû ðàñïðåäåëå-
íèÿ ¾òÿæåëåå¿, à ïèê áîëåå ¾ïðèïëþñíóòûé¿, ÷åì ó íîðìàëüíîãî
ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ, òî êîýôôèöèåíò ýêñöåññà ìåíüøå íóëÿ.
12
Ìàòåìàòè÷åñêîå îæèäàíèå: 1/λ.
Äèñïåðñèÿ: 1/λ2 .
Ìàòåìàòè÷åñêîå îæèäàíèå: N p.
Äèñïåðñèÿ: N p(1 − p).
13
P
èìååò ìåñòî ñõîäèìîñòü ïî âåðîÿòíîñòè θ̂(X[n] ) −−−−→ θ. Ñòàòè-
n→∞
ñòèêà θ̂(X[n] ) íàçûâàåòñÿ ñèëüíî ñîñòîÿòåëüíîé îöåíêîé ïàðà-
ìåòðà θ, åñëè äëÿ ëþáîãî çíà÷åíèÿ θ ∈ Θ èìååò ìåñòî ñõîäèìîñòü
ï. í.
ïî÷òè íàâåðíîå θ̂(X[n] ) −−−−→ θ.
n→∞
è óðàâíåíèå
14
äèñïåðñèè ñëó÷àéíîé âåëè÷èíû ξ è êâàäðàòà åå ìàòåìàòè÷åñêîãî
îæèäàíèÿ, ò. å. Dξ + (Eξ)2 .
Äëÿ îäíîïàðàìåòðè÷åñêîãî ñåìåéñòâà ðàñïðåäåëåíèé îáû÷-
íî âûáèðàþò ôóíêöèþ g(x) = x, è òî÷å÷íóþ îöåíêó θ̂(X[n] ) îä-
íîìåðíîãî ïàðàìåòðà θ ïî âûáîðêå X[n] = {x1 , . . . , xn } ìîæíî
íàéòè èç óðàâíåíèÿ
Eξ = x̄,
15
Òàáë. 1.1. Îöåíêè ïàðàìåòðîâ ìåòîäîì ìîìåíòîâ
ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ìîìåíòîâ
Íîðìàëüíîå a, σ 2 â = x̄, σ̂ 2 √
= s2 √
Ðàâíîìåðíîå íà [a, b] a, b â = x̄ − s 3, b̂ = x̄ + s 3
Ýêñïîíåíöèàëüíîå λ λ̂ = 1/x̄
Ïóàññîíà α α̂ = x̄
Áåðíóëëè p p̂ = x̄
Áèíîìèàëüíîå p p̂ = x̄/N
è åå ëîãàðèôì:
n
X n
Y
ln L(x1 , . . . , xn ; α) = xi ln α − nα − ln xi !
i=1 i=1
16
Äèôôåðåíöèðóÿ ïî α, ïîëó÷àåì
Pn
∂ ln L(x1 , . . . , xn ; α) i=1 xi
= − n.
∂α α
Èñïîëüçóÿ íåîáõîäèìîå è äîñòàòî÷íîå óñëîâèå ýêñòðåìóìà, çà-
êëþ÷àåì, ÷òî
Pn
xi
α̂ = i=1 = x̄.
n
Îäíàêî íå âñåãäà óäàåòñÿ íàéòè îöåíêè ïàðàìåòðîâ ðàñïðå-
äåëåíèÿ èç óñëîâèÿ ðàâåíñòâà íóëþ ÷àñòíûõ ïðîèçâîäíûõ ïî ïà-
ðàìåòðàì ôóíêöèè ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ âûáîðêè.
1
, åñëè b > max xi = x(n)
(b − a)n
i
L(x1 , . . . , xn ; a, b) = è a 6 min x i = x(1) ,
i
â ïðîòèâíîì ñëó÷àå.
0,
17
Òàáë. 1.2. Îöåíêè ïàðàìåòðîâ ìåòîäîì ìàêñèìàëüíîãî
ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ
ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ
Íîðìàëüíîå a, σ 2 â = x̄, σ̂ 2 = s2
Ðàâíîìåðíîå íà [a, b] a, b â = x(1) , b̂ = x(n)
Ýêñïîíåíöèàëüíîå λ λ̂ = 1/x̄
Ïóàññîíà α α̂ = x̄
Áåðíóëëè p p̂ = x̄
Áèíîìèàëüíîå p p̂ = x̄/N
18
Òî÷íûé äîâåðèòåëüíûé èíòåðâàë äëÿ ïàðàìåòðà a ïðè èçâåñò-
íîì çíà÷åíèè ïàðàìåòðà σ 2 . Èç îïðåäåëåíèÿ äîâåðèòåëüíîãî èí-
òåðâàëà
P θ̂1 (X[n] ) < a < θ̂2 (X[n] ) = 1 − ε.
19
ãäå t1− 2ε ,n−1 êâàíòèëü ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Ñòüþäåíòà ñ n − 1 ñòåïå-
íÿìè ñâîáîäû óðîâíÿ 1 − 2ε .
Òî÷íûì äîâåðèòåëüíûì èíòåðâàëîì ñ óðîâíåì äîâåðèÿ 1−ε äëÿ
ïàðàìåòðà σ 2 ïðè èçâåñòíîì çíà÷åíèè ïàðàìåòðà a ÿâëÿåòñÿ
èíòåðâàë
P n n
(xi − a)2 (xi − a)2
P
i=1
, i=1 2
.
χ2 ε χε
1− 2 ,n 2 ,n
(n − 1)s̃2 (n − 1)s̃2
, , (1.4.2)
χ21− ε ,n−1 χ2ε ,n−1
2 2
20
Òî÷íûì äîâåðèòåëüíûì èíòåðâàëîì äëÿ ïàðàìåòðà λ ýêñïîíåí-
öèàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ñ óðîâíåì äîâåðèÿ 1−ε ÿâëÿåòñÿ èíòåð-
âàë, êîòîðûé îïðåäåëÿåòñÿ èç óñëîâèÿ
χ22ε ,2n < 2nx̄λ < χ21− 2ε ,2n ,
à èìåííî, èíòåðâàë
χ2 χ21− ε ,2n
ε
2 ,2n 2
, ,
2nx̄ 2nx̄
ãäå χ2ε ,2n , χ21− ε ,2n êâàíòèëè χ2 -ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ñ 2n ñòåïåíÿìè
2 2
ñâîáîäû óðîâíåé 2ε è 1 − 2ε ñîîòâåòñòâåííî.
21
Àñèìïòîòè÷åñêèé äîâåðèòåëüíûé èíòåðâàë äëÿ ïàðàìåòðà λ
ýêñïîíåíöèàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ. Ïîñòðîèì àñèìïòîòè÷åñêèé
äîâåðèòåëüíûé èíòåðâàë ñ óðîâíåì äîâåðèÿ ïðèáëèæåííî ðàâ-
íûì 1−ε ïî âûáîðêå X[n] = {x1 , . . . , xn }. Ïîñêîëüêó x1 , . . . , xn ÿâ-
ëÿþòñÿ âçàèìíî íåçàâèñèìûìè îäèíàêîâî ðàñïðåäåëåííûìè ñëó-
÷àéíûìè âåëè÷èíàìè ñ ìàòåìàòè÷åñêèì îæèäàíèåì 1/λ è äèñ-
ïåðñèåé 1/λ2 , ìîæíî ïðèìåíèòü öåíòðàëüíóþ ïðåäåëüíóþ òåî-
ðåìó 1.4.3 èëè âîñïîëüçîâàòüñÿ ëåììîé 1.4.1:
n
P
xi − n/λ
i=1 √ d
√ = n(λx̄ − 1) −−−−→ ζ ∼ N (0, 1).
n/λ n→∞
1 u1− 2ε 1 u1− 2ε
− √ , + √ .
x̄ x̄ n x̄ x̄ n
22
Çàêëþ÷àåì, ÷òî ñ âåðîÿòíîñòüþ ïðèáëèæåííî ðàâíîé 1 − ε âû-
ïîëíÿåòñÿ íåðàâåíñòâî
x̄ − α √
−u1− 2ε < √ n < u1− 2ε ,
α
ãäå u1− 2ε êâàíòèëü ñòàíäàðòíîãî íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
óðîâíÿ 1 − 2ε . Ìîæíî èñïîëüçîâàòü ñëåäóþùóþ àïïðîêñèìàöèþ
äëÿ äîâåðèòåëüíîãî èíòåðâàëà (ñì. [19, 20]):
r r
x̄ x̄
x̄ − u1− 2
ε , x̄ + u1− 2
ε .
n n
Àñèìïòîòè÷åñêèé äîâåðèòåëüíûé èíòåðâàë äëÿ ïàðàìåòðà p
ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Áåðíóëëè. Ïóñòü â âûáîðêå X[n] = {x1 , . . . , xn }
ýëåìåíò xi ∈ {0, 1}, ïðè÷åì âåðîÿòíîñòü óñïåõà îäèíàêîâà è ðàâ-
íà p. ×èñëî
Pn ¾óñïåøíûõ¿ èñõîäîâ â n íåçàâèñèìûõ èñïûòàíè-
ÿõ ðàâíî i=1 xi . Èñïîëüçóÿ öåíòðàëüíóþ ïðåäåëüíóþ òåîðåìó
1.4.3, ïîëó÷àåì
n
P
xi − np
i=1 x̄ − p √ d
p =p n −−−−→ ζ ∼ N (0, 1).
np(1 − p) p(1 − p) n→∞
23
• MAKC(Äèàïàçîí äàííûõ) âîçâðàùàåò ìàêñèìàëüíûé ýëå-
ìåíò âûáîðêè x(n) .
• MÈÍ(Äèàïàçîí äàííûõ) âîçâðàùàåò ìèíèìàëüíûé ýëåìåíò
âûáîðêè x(1) .
• Ñ×ÅÒ(Äèàïàçîí äàííûõ) âîçâðàùàåò îáúåì âûáîðêè n.
• ×ÀÑÒÎÒÀ(Ìàññèâ äàííûõ;Ìàññèâ èíòåðâàëîâ) âîçâðàùàåò
ðàñïðåäåëåíèå ÷àñòîò ïî èíòåðâàëàì ãðóïïèðîâêè. Ôóíê-
öèÿ ×ÀÑÒÎÒÀ() ââîäèòñÿ êàê ôîðìóëà ìàññèâà ïîñëå âûäå-
ëåíèÿ äèàïàçîíà ñìåæíûõ ÿ÷ååê, â êîòîðûå òðåáóåòñÿ âåð-
íóòü ïîëó÷åííûé ìàññèâ ÷àñòîò. Ò. å. ïîñëå ââîäà ôîðìóëû
íåîáõîäèìî âìåñòî íàæàòèÿ êëàâèøè Enter íàæàòü ñî÷å-
òàíèå êëàâèø Ctrl+Shift+Enter. Êîëè÷åñòâî ýëåìåíòîâ â
âîçâðàùàåìîì ìàññèâå íà åäèíèöó áîëüøå ÷èñëà ýëåìåíòîâ
â ìàññèâå Ìàññèâ èíòåðâàëîâ. Äîïîëíèòåëüíûé ýëåìåíò ñî-
äåðæèò êîëè÷åñòâî çíà÷åíèé, ïðåâûøàþùèõ âåðõíþþ ãðà-
íèöó èíòåðâàëà, ñîäåðæàùåãî íàèáîëüøèå çíà÷åíèÿ.
• ÑÐÇÍÀ×(Äèàïàçîí äàííûõ) âîçâðàùàåò âûáîðî÷íîå ñðåäíåå
x̄.
• ÄÈÑÏ.Ã(Äèàïàçîí äàííûõ) âîçâðàùàåò âûáîðî÷íóþ äèñ-
ïåðñèþ s2 .
• ÑÒÀÍÄÎÒÊËÎÍ.Ã(Äèàïàçîí äàííûõ) âîçâðàùàåò s.
• ÄÈÑÏ.Â(Äèàïàçîí äàííûõ) âîçâðàùàåò èñïðàâëåííóþ âûáî-
ðî÷íóþ äèñïåðñèþ s̃2 .
• ÑÒÀÍÄÎÒÊËÎÍ.Â(Äèàïàçîí äàííûõ) âîçâðàùàåò s̃.
• ÌÎÄÀ.ÎÄÍ(Äèàïàçîí äàííûõ) âîçâðàùàåò ìîäó. Åñëè ñðå-
äè ýëåìåíòîâ íåñêîëüêî íàèáîëåå ÷àñòî âñòðå÷àþùèõñÿ, òî
âîçâðàùàåòñÿ ïåðâûé âñòðå÷åííûé èç íèõ ýëåìåíò. Åñëè
ñðåäè ýëåìåíòîâ íåñêîëüêî òàêèõ ýëåìåíòîâ, òî äëÿ èõ âû-
âîäà èñïîëüçóåòñÿ ôóíêöèÿ ÌÎÄÀ.ÍÑÊ(Äèàïàçîí äàííûõ)
• ÑÊÎÑ(Äèàïàçîí äàííûõ) âîçâðàùàåò îöåíêó âûáîðî÷íîãî
êîýôôèöèåíòà àñèììåòðèè
n2 µ3
 = · 3.
(n − 1)(n − 2) s̃
• ÝÊÑÖÅÑÑ(Äèàïàçîí äàííûõ) âîçâðàùàåò îöåíêó âûáîðî÷íî-
ãî êîýôôèöèåíò ýêñöåññà
n2 (n + 1) µ4 (n − 1)2
Ê = · 4 −3· .
(n − 1)(n − 2)(n − 3) s̃ (n − 2)(n − 3)
• ÊÂÀÐÒÈËÜ.ÂÊË(Ìàññèâ;×àñòü) âîçâðàùàåò êâàðòèëè ïîðÿä-
24
êà 0.25 Q1 (×àñòü ðàâíà 1), ïîðÿäêà 0.5 Q2 ìåäèàíó
(×àñòü ðàâíà 2), ïîðÿäêà 0.75 Q3 (×àñòü ðàâíà 3). Åñ-
ëè ×àñòü ïðèíèìàåò çíà÷åíèå ðàâíîå 0 èëè 4, òî ôóíêöèÿ
âîçâðàùàåò ìèíèìàëüíûé èëè ìàêñèìàëüíûé ýëåìåíò âû-
áîðêè ñîîòâåòñòâåííî.
• ÌÅÄÈÀÍÀ(Äèàïàçîí äàííûõ) âîçâðàùàåò ìåäèàíó.
• ÏÐÎÖÅÍÒÈËÜ.ÂÊË(Äèàïàçîí äàííûõ;k ) âîçâðàùàåò ïåðñåí-
òèëü ïîðÿäêà k .
Äëÿ áûñòðîãî ïîëó÷åíèÿ îïèñàòåëüíîé ñòàòèñòèêè ìîæíî âîñ-
ïîëüçîâàòüñÿ íàäñòðîéêîé Àíàëèç äàííûõ (ðèñ. 1.1) èç ðàçäåëà
ìåíþ Äàííûå, âûáðàâ èç ñïèñêà ïóíêò Îïèñàòåëüíàÿ ñòàòèñòèêà
(ðèñ. 1.2). Ñëåäóåò îòìåòèòü, ÷òî â ïîëÿõ Ñòàíäàðòíîå
îòêëîíåíèå è Äèñïåðñèÿ âûáîðêè ðàññ÷èòûâàþòñÿ âåëè÷èíû s̃
è s̃2 ñîîòâåòñòâåííî.
25
Äëÿ ïîñòðîåíèÿ ãèñòîãðàììû ÷àñòîò ìîæíî âîñïîëüçîâàòü-
ñÿ ïóíêòîì Ãèñòîãðàììà (ðèñ. 1.3) íàäñòðîéêè Àíàëèç äàííûõ.
26
ìåíò Âåðîÿòíîñòü îïðåäåëÿåòñÿ âåëè÷èíîé α, à Ñòåïåíè
ñâîáîäû ÷èñëîì n.
• Êâàíòèëü ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Ôèøåðà Fα,n,m óðîâíÿ α c
n è m ñòåïåíÿìè ñâîáîäû âîçâðàùàåò ôóíêöèÿ F.ÎÁÐ
(Âåðîÿòíîñòü;Ñòåïåíè ñâîáîäû1;Ñòåïåíè ñâîáîäû2), â
êîòîðîé àðãóìåíò Âåðîÿòíîñòü îïðåäåëÿåòñÿ âåëè÷èíîé α,
à Ñòåïåíè ñâîáîäû1 è Ñòåïåíè ñâîáîäû2 ÷èñëàìè n è m
ñîîòâåòñòâåííî.
Äëÿ íîðìàëüíîãî, ñòàíäàðòíîãî íîðìàëüíîãî, ýêñïîíåíöè-
àëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèé, ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Ïóàññîíà, áèíîìèàëüíîãî
ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ, ðàñïðåäåëåíèé Ñòüþäåíòà, Ôèøåðà è χ2 ìîæíî
âû÷èñëèòü çíà÷åíèå ôóíêöèè ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ â òî÷êå X ñ èñïîëü-
çîâàíèåì ñëåäóþùèõ ñòàòèñòè÷åñêèõ ôóíêöèé, â êîòîðûõ ïàðà-
ìåòð Èíòåãðàëüíàÿ ðàâåí åäèíèöå:
• ÍÎÐÌ.ÐÀÑÏ(X;Ñðåäíåå;Ñòàíäàðòíîå îòêëîíåíèå;Èíòå-
ãðàëüíàÿ).
• ÍÎÐÌ.ÑÒ.ÐÀÑÏ(X;Èíòåãðàëüíàÿ).
• ÝÊÑÏ.ÐÀÑÏ(X;Ëÿìáäà;Èíòåãðàëüíàÿ).
• ÏÓÀÑÑÎÍ.ÐÀÑÏ(X;Ñðåäíåå;Èíòåãðàëüíàÿ).
• ÁÈÍÎÌ.ÐÀÑÏ(×èñëî óñïåõîâ;×èñëî èñïûòàíèé;
Âåðîÿòíîñòü óñïåõà;Èíòåãðàëüíàÿ).
• ÑÒÜÞÄÅÍÒ.ÐÀÑÏ(X;Ñòåïåíè ñâîáîäû;Èíòåãðàëüíàÿ).
• ÕÈ2.ÐÀÑÏ(X;Ñòåïåíè ñâîáîäû;Èíòåãðàëüíàÿ).
• F.ÐÀÑÏ(X;Ñòåïåíè ñâîáîäû1;Ñòåïåíè ñâîáîäû2;
Èíòåãðàëüíàÿ).
Äëÿ âû÷èñëåíèÿ ïëîòíîñòåé ðàñïðåäåëåíèé: íîðìàëüíîãî, ýêñ-
ïîíåíöèàëüíîãî, Ñòüþäåíòà, Ôèøåðà, χ2 â òî÷êå X íåîáõîäèìî â
êà÷åñòâå çíà÷åíèÿ ïàðàìåòðà Èíòåãðàëüíàÿ âûáðàòü íîëü.
27
• boxplot èçîáðàæàåò äàííûå â âèäå ïðÿìîóãîëüíèêà, ãîðè-
çîíòàëüíûå ëèíèè íà ãðàôèêå ñîîòâåòñòâóþò ìèíèìàëüíî-
ìó ýëåìåíòó, ìàêñèìàëüíîìó ýëåìåíòó, êâàíòèëÿì óðîâíåé
0.25 è 0.75, è ìåäèàíå;
• summary âûâîäèò ìèíèìàëüíûé ýëåìåíò âûáîðêè, êâàíòèëü
óðîâíÿ 0.25, ìåäèàíó, âûáîðî÷íîå ñðåäíåå, êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ
0.75, ìàêñèìàëüíûé ýëåìåíò.
Ïðèìåð 1.5.1. Äëÿ âûáîðêè x = {0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.15, 0, 1, 1.5, 1.3,
0.7, 0.9, 0.4, 0.7} âûâåñòè ìåäèàíó, âûáîðî÷íîå ñðåäíåå, ïîñòðîèòü
ãèñòîãðàììó è ¾ÿùèê ñ óñàìè¿.
28
Ðèñ. 1.5. Ãèñòîãðàììà ÷àñòîò â R
29
Ðèñ. 1.6. Ãðàôèê ôóíêöèè ïëîòíîñòè
ñ ïàðàìåòðàìè (10, 4)
30
Äëÿ âû÷èñëåíèÿ êâàíòèëåé óðîâíÿ α ñîîòâåòñòâóþùåãî
ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ íóæíî âìåñòî ïåðâîé áóêâû r â ôóíêöèÿõ, ïåðå-
÷èñëåííûõ âûøå, ïèñàòü áóêâó q. Íàïðèìåð, äëÿ âûâîäà êâàí-
òèëè óðîâíÿ 0.95 áèíîìèàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ñ ïàðàìåòðàìè
(50, 0.3), íåîáõîäèìî íàïèñàòü ôóíêöèþ qbinom(0.95,50,0.3),
êîòîðàÿ âûâåäåò çíà÷åíèå 20.
Äîïîëíèòåëüíóþ ñïðàâêó ïî âîçìîæíûì ôóíê-
öèÿì ïðîãðàììû R ìîæíî ïîëó÷èòü ïî àäðåñó:
https://www.r-project.org/.
31
Ãëàâà 2
Ñòàòèñòè÷åñêèå ãèïîòåçû
32
Îïðåäåëåíèå 2.1.4. Ñòàòèñòèêà êðèòåðèÿ γ(X[n] ) èçìåðè-
ìàÿ ôóíêöèÿ îò âûáîðî÷íûõ äàííûõ, íà îñíîâàíèè ÷èñëåííîãî
çíà÷åíèÿ êîòîðîé ïðèíèìàåòñÿ ðåøåíèå îá îòêëîíåíèè èëè ïðè-
íÿòèè íóëåâîé ãèïîòåçû.
33
ñòàòèñòèêè γ(X[n] ) â óêàçàííóþ îáëàñòü ïðè óñëîâèè ñïðà-
âåäëèâîñòè ãèïîòåçû H1 .
Êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü ìîæåò ñîñòîÿòü èç îäíîãî èíòåðâàëà,
êàê ïðàâèëî, ñëåäóþùåãî âèäà: (−∞, zα ) èëè (z1−α , ∞), ãäå
zα è z1−α êâàíòèëè óðîâíåé α è 1 − α çàêîíà ðàñïðåäå-
ëåíèÿ, êîòîðîìó äîëæíà ïîä÷èíÿòüñÿ (âîçìîæíî, àñèìïòî-
òè÷åñêè) ñòàòèñòèêà γ(X[n] ).
Êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü ìîæåò ñîñòîÿòü èç äâóõ èíòåðâàëîâ:
(−∞, z α2 ) è (z1− α2 , ∞), ãäå z α2 è z1− α2 êâàíòèëè óðîâíåé
2 è 1 − 2 ñîîòâåòñòâóþùåãî çàêîíà ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ, êîòîðî-
α α
34
2. Çàäàåì óðîâåíü çíà÷èìîñòè êðèòåðèÿ α.
3. Âû÷èñëÿåì çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè γχ2 (X[n] ). Äëÿ ýòîãî:
(a) ×èñëîâóþ îñü òî÷êàìè a1 = −∞, a2 , . . ., ar+1 = +∞
ðàçáèâàåì íà r ïðîìåæóòêîâ ∆i = (ai ; ai+1 ], i =
= 1, . . . , r.
(b) Ïî èçâåñòíîé ôóíêöèè F0 (·) âû÷èñëÿåì âåðîÿòíîñòè
(0)
pi = F0 (ai+1 ) − F0 (ai ).
(c) Íàõîäèì ÷èñëà ni , ðàâíûå êîëè÷åñòâó ýëåìåíòîâ âû-
áîðêè X[n] , ïîïàâøèõ â ïðîìåæóòîê ∆i , i = 1, . . . , r.
(d) Âû÷èñëÿåì çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè γχ2 (X[n] ) ïî ôîðìóëå
2
(0)
r
X ni − npi
γχ2 (X[n] ) = (0)
. (2.2.1)
i=1 npi
35
ïðè íàõîæäåíèè îöåíîê θ̂ ïî ìåòîäó ìèíèìóìà χ2 , ñòàòèñòèêà
2
(0)
Xr ni − npi (θ̂)
(0)
i=1 npi (θ̂)
ïðè âûïîëíåíèè ãèïîòåçû H0 àñèìïòîòè÷åñêè ðàñïðåäåëåíà ïî
çàêîíó χ2 ñ (r − ` − 1) ñòåïåíÿìè ñâîáîäû, ãäå ` êîëè÷åñòâî
îöåíèâàåìûõ ïî âûáîðêå ïàðàìåòðîâ.
36
4. Ïðè óñëîâèè ñïðàâåäëèâîñòè
√ ãèïîòåçû H0 è ïðè n → ∞
ñëó÷àéíàÿ âåëè÷èíà nDn∗ àñèìïòîòè÷åñêè ïîä÷èíÿåòñÿ
ðàñïðåäåëåíèþ Êîëìîãîðîâà ñ ôóíêöèåé ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
∞
X 2 2
K(x) = lim P nDn∗ 6 x = 1 + 2 (−1)m e−2m x .
√
n→∞
m=1
(2.2.3)
Êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü áóäåò èìåòü âèä: (k1−α ; ∞), ãäå k1−α
êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ 1 − α ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Êîëìîãîðîâà ñ
ôóíêöèåé ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ (2.2.3). Òî÷êà k1−α îïðåäåëÿåòñÿ
èç óðàâíåíèÿ K(k1−α ) = 1 − α. Òàáëèöó çíà÷åíèé ôóíêöèè
ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Êîëìîãîðîâà ìîæíî íàéòè√ â Ïðèëîæåíèè.
5. Åñëè ÷èñëåííîå çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè nDn∗ ïîïàäåò â èí-
òåðâàë (k1−α ; ∞), òî íóëåâàÿ ãèïîòåçà H0 îòâåðãàåòñÿ, â
ïðîòèâíîì ñëó÷àå íåò îñíîâàíèé îòâåðãíóòü ãèïîòåçó H0
ïðè óðîâíå çíà÷èìîñòè ïðèáëèæåííî ðàâíîì α.
37
n è íå çàâèñèò îò F0 (x). Ïðè ìàëûõ n èìåþòñÿ òàáëèöû
ïðîöåíòíûõ òî÷åê, à äëÿ áîëüøèõ çíà÷åíèé n ñëåäóåò èñ-
ïîëüçîâàòü ïðåäåëüíîå (ïðè n → ∞) ðàñïðåäåëåíèå ñòà-
òèñòèêè ωn2 . Äëÿ íåãî ñîñòàâëåíû ïîäðîáíûå òàáëèöû è
âû÷èñëèòåëüíûå ïðîãðàììû. Âàæíîå ñ òåîðåòè÷åñêîé òî÷-
êè çðåíèÿ ñâîéñòâî êðèòåðèåâ, îñíîâàííûõ íà Dn è ωn2 :
îíè ñîñòîÿòåëüíû ïðîòèâ ëþáîé àëüòåðíàòèâíîé ãèïîòåçû
Fξ (·) 6= F0 (·).
Ñòàòèñòè÷åñêèé êðèòåðèé äëÿ ïðîâåðêè ãèïîòåçû H0 íàçû-
âàþò ñîñòîÿòåëüíûì ïðîòèâ àëüòåðíàòèâíîé ãèïîòåçû H1 , åñëè
âåðîÿòíîñòü ñ åãî ïîìîùüþ îòâåðãíóòü H0 , êîãäà íà ñàìîì äåëå
âåðíà H1 , ñòðåìèòñÿ ê 1 ïðè íåîãðàíè÷åííîì óâåëè÷åíèè îáúåìà
íàáëþäåíèé.
Íåîáõîäèìî îòìåòèòü, ÷òî êðèòåðèé ω 2 è êðèòåðèé Êîëìî-
ãîðîâà ïîäñ÷èòûâàþòñÿ ïî íåãðóïïèðîâàííûì âûáîðêàì (â îòëè-
÷èå îò êðèòåðèÿ χ2 ). Ñóùåñòâóþò ìîäèôèêàöèè êðèòåðèåâ òèïà
ω 2 äëÿ ãðóïïèðîâàííûõ äàííûõ, íî ãðóïïèðîâêà ïðèâîäèò ê ïî-
òåðå ìîùíîñòè êðèòåðèÿ.
ñëîæíûõ ãèïîòåç
Ïóñòü èìååòñÿ âûáîðêà X[n] = {x1 , . . . , xn } èç ãåíåðàëüíîé ñîâî-
êóïíîñòè ξ ñ ôóíêöèåé ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Fξ (x, θ), ãäå θ íåèçâåñò-
íûé ïàðàìåòð, êîòîðûé ìîæåò áûòü âåêòîðîì. Èñïîëüçóÿ ìåòîä
ìàêñèìàëüíîãî ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ, íàéäåì îöåíêó θ̂ íåèçâåñòíîãî ïà-
ðàìåòðà θ.
Òîãäà äëÿ ïðîâåðêè ñëîæíûõ ãèïîòåç ñîãëàñèÿ H0 : Fξ (·) =
= F0 (·, θ) èñïîëüçóþòñÿ ìîäèôèöèðîâàííûå ñòàòèñòèêè. Ìîäè-
ôèöèðîâàííàÿ ñòàòèñòèêà Êîëìîãîðîâà èìååò âèä:
D̂n∗ = sup |Fn (x) − F0 (x, θ̂)|.
x
38
âîçðàñòàþò, åñëè ïðîâåðÿåìàÿ ãèïîòåçà íåâåðíà. Íî âàæíî îò-
ìåòèòü, ÷òî ñòàòèñòèêà D̂n∗ ðàñïðåäåëåíà èíà÷å, ÷åì Dn∗ , à ñòà-
òèñòèêà ω̂n2 èíà÷å, ÷åì ωn2 . Ïðè÷èíà â òîì, ÷òî èç-çà ïîäáîðà
ïàðàìåòðà θ̂ ïî âûáîðêå X[n] ôóíêöèè Fn (x) è F0 (x, θ̂) îêàçûâà-
þòñÿ ¾áëèæå¿ äðóã ê äðóãó, ÷åì Fn (x) è F0 (x).
Ïîñêîëüêó ñòàòèñòèêè D̂n∗ è ω̂n2 ïðè ñïðàâåäëèâîñòè íóëåâîé
ãèïîòåçû èìåþò èíûå ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ, ÷åì ñòàòèñòèêè Dn è ωn2 ,
òî äëÿ èõ ïðèìåíåíèÿ íåîáõîäèìû íîâûå òàáëèöû ðàñïðåäåëå-
íèé èëè òàáëèöû êâàíòèëåé. Ê ñîæàëåíèþ, ìîäèôèöèðîâàííûå
ñòàòèñòèêè D̂n∗ è ω̂n2 íå îáëàäàþò ñâîéñòâîì ¾ñâîáîäû îò ðàñïðå-
äåëåíèÿ âûáîðêè¿, êàê è èõ ïðîòîòèïû, ïîýòîìó äëÿ êàæäîãî
ïàðàìåòðè÷åñêîãî ñåìåéñòâà ðàñïðåäåëåíèé íóæíû ñâîè òàáëè-
öû. Òàáëèöû ðàñïðåäåëåíèé ñòàòèñòèê D̂n∗ è ω̂n2 ê íàñòîÿùåìó
ìîìåíòó ñîñòàâëåíû äëÿ ìíîãèõ ñåìåéñòâ [20]. Áîëüøèíñòâî èç
íèõ ðàññ÷èòàíû ìåòîäîì Ìîíòå-Êàðëî.
Íà÷èíàÿ ñ n = 5 ìîæíî èñïîëüçîâàòü èñïðàâëåííûå ôîð-
ìû ìîäèôèöèðîâàííûõ ñòàòèñòèê D̂n∗ è ω̂n2 . Â òàáëèöàõ 2.12.2
ïðèâåäåíû êâàíòèëè óðîâíÿ 1 − α äëÿ α = 0.15, 0.10, 0.05, 0.025
è 0.01, èñïîëüçóåìûå ïðè ïðîâåðêå ãèïîòåç î íîðìàëüíîì è ýêñ-
ïîíåíöèàëüíîì ðàñïðåäåëåíèè ãåíåðàëüíîé ñîâîêóïíîñòè, êîãäà
âñå ïàðàìåòðû ýòèõ ðàñïðåäåëåíèé îöåíèâàþòñÿ ïî âûáîðêå.
Òàáë. 2.1. Êâàíòèëè óðîâíÿ 1−α äëÿ ïðîâåðêè íîðìàëüíîñòè
39
3. Íàõîäèì îöåíêè θ̂ = (x̄, s2 ) íåèçâåñòíûõ ïàðàìåòðîâ ðàñ-
ïðåäåëåíèÿ θ = (a, σ 2 ).
4. Âû÷èñëÿåì çíà÷åíèå èñïðàâëåííîé ôîðìû ñòàòèñòèêè D̃n∗
ñëåäóþùèì îáðàçîì:
(a) Ïî âûáîðêå X[n] ñòðîèì ýìïèðè÷åñêóþ ôóíêöèþ ðàñ-
ïðåäåëåíèÿ Fn (x) ïî ôîðìóëå (1.1.1).
(b) Îïðåäåëÿåì Dn∗ ïî ôîðìóëå (2.2.2).
(c) Âû÷èñëÿåì çíà÷åíèå èñïðàâëåííîé ôîðìû ìîäèôèöè-
ðîâàííîé ñòàòèñòèêè Êîëìîãîðîâà ïî ôîðìóëå
√
0.85
D̂n∗ = Dn∗ n − 0.01 + √ .
n
40
ðîâàííîé ñòàòèñòèêè îìåãà-êâàäðàò ïî ôîðìóëå
2 2 0.5
ω̂n = ωn 1 + .
n
5. Íàõîäèì êðèòè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü èíòåðâàë (w1−α ; ∞), ãäå
w1−α êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ 1−α. Êâàíòèëü w1−α ìîæíî íàéòè
èç òàáëèöû 2.1.
6. Åñëè ÷èñëåííîå çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè ω̂n2 ïîïàäåò â èíòåðâàë
(w1−α ; ∞), òî íóëåâàÿ ãèïîòåçà H0 îòâåðãàåòñÿ, â ïðîòèâ-
íîì ñëó÷àå íåò îñíîâàíèé åå îòâåðãíóòü ïðè óðîâíå çíà÷è-
ìîñòè ïðèáëèæåííî ðàâíîì α.
Àëãîðèòì êðèòåðèÿ ñîãëàñèÿ ω 2 â ñëó÷àå ñëîæíîé ãèïîòåçû
îá ýêñïîíåíöèàëüíîñòè ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ãåíåðàëüíîé ñîâîêóïíîñòè
òàêîé æå, êàê è â ñëó÷àå ïðîâåðêè ñëîæíîé ãèïîòåçû î íîðìàëü-
íîñòè ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ, íî èñïðàâëåííàÿ ôîðìà ìîäèôèöèðîâàí-
íîé ñòàòèñòèêè îìåãà-êâàäðàò áóäåò ñëåäóþùåé ωn2 1 + 0.16 n , è
41
library(vcd) ## çàãðóæàåì vcd ïàêåò
x.poi<-rpois(n=100,lambda=2.5) ## ìîäåëèðóåì âûáîðêó îáúåìà 100
èç ãåí. ñîâ., ïîä÷èíÿþùåéñÿ ðàñïðåäåëåíèþ Ïóàññîíà ñ λ = 2.5
gf<-goodfit(x.poi,type="poisson method="MinChisq")
summary(gf) ## âûâîäèì ðåçóëüòàòû òåñòà
42
íîñòè ôóíêöèè ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ê ñåìåéñòâó ôóíêöèé íîðìàëüíî-
ãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ïî êðèòåðèþ Êîëìîãîðîâà.
Êîä ïðîãðàììû:
43
Ðåçóëüòàò ðàáîòû ôóíêöèè ks.test áóäåò ñëåäóþùèì:
library(nortest)
cvm.test(rnorm(100, mean = 10, sd = 3))
44
Îáúåìû âûáîðîê ìîãóò áûòü ðàçëè÷íû, íî, íå íàðóøàÿ îáù-
íîñòè, ïðåäïîëîæèì, ÷òî m 6 n. Ôóíêöèè ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ýòèõ
ãåíåðàëüíûõ ñîâîêóïíîñòåé ðàâíû F (x) è G(x) ñîîòâåòñòâåííî.
Íàëîæèì äîïîëíèòåëüíîå îãðàíè÷åíèå: ôóíêöèè ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
F (x) è G(x) íåïðåðûâíû.
Êðèòåðèé ÊîëìîãîðîâàÑìèðíîâà ïðîâåðÿåò ãèïîòåçó î
ðàâåíñòâå ôóíêöèé ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ äâóõ ãåíåðàëüíûõ ñîâîêóï-
íîñòåé ξ è η , èç êîòîðûõ èçâëå÷åíû âûáîðêè X[n] è Y[m] ñîîò-
âåòñòâåííî, ò. å. H0 : F (·) = G(·) ïðè àëüòåðíàòèâíîé ãèïîòåçå
H1 : F (·) 6= G(·). Ýòîò êðèòåðèé îñíîâàí íà èñïîëüçîâàíèè ýìïè-
ðè÷åñêèõ ôóíêöèé ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Fn (x) è Gm (x), ïîñòðîåííûõ
ïî ïåðâîé è âòîðîé âûáîðêàì ñîîòâåòñòâåííî.
Ñòàòèñòèêà Ñìèðíîâà îïðåäåëÿåòñÿ ñëåäóþùåé ôîðìóëîé:
45
2. Çàäàåì óðîâåíü çíà÷èìîñòè êðèòåðèÿ α.
3. Âû÷èñëÿåì çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè (2.3.5) ñëåäóþùèì îáðà-
çîì:
(a) Ïî âûáîðêàì X[n] è Y[m] ñòðîèì ýìïèðè÷åñêèå ôóíê-
öèè ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Fn (x) è Gm (x) ïî ôîðìóëå (1.1.1).
(b) Âû÷èñëÿåì Dm,n ïî ôîðìóëàì (2.3.2),(2.3.3),(2.3.4).
(c) Íàõîäèì çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè êðèòåðèÿ â âèäå (2.3.5).
4. Íàõîäèì êðèòè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü èíòåðâàë (k1−α ; ∞), ãäå
k1−α êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ 1 − α ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Êîëìîãîðî-
âà (2.2.3). Êâàíòèëü k1−α ìîæíî íàéòè, âîñïîëüçîâàâøèñü
îïðåäåëåíèåì êâàíòèëè è òàáëèöåé çíà÷åíèé ôóíêöèè ðàñ-
ïðåäåëåíèÿ Êîëìîãîðîâà â Ïðèëîæåíèè.
5. Åñëè ÷èñëåííîå çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè êðèòåðèÿ (2.3.5) ïîïà-
äåò â èíòåðâàë (k1−α ; ∞), òî íóëåâàÿ ãèïîòåçà H0 îòâåðãà-
åòñÿ, â ïðîòèâíîì ñëó÷àå íåò îñíîâàíèé åå îòâåðãíóòü ïðè
óðîâíå çíà÷èìîñòè ïðèáëèæåííî ðàâíîì α.
46
î ðàâåíñòâå ôóíêöèé ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ïî êðèòåðèþ Êîëìîãîðîâà
Ñìèðíîâà.
47
àëüòåðíàòèâû H1 : F (·) 6 G(·) (ëåâîñòîðîííÿÿ àëüòåðíàòèâà).
Ìîæíî òàêæå ðàññìàòðèâàòü îáúåäèíåíèå îáåèõ âîçìîæíîñòåé
H1 : F (·) 6= G(·) (äâóñòîðîííÿÿ àëüòåðíàòèâà).
Àëãîðèòì êðèòåðèÿ Âèëêîêñîíà
1. Îáúåäèíèì âûáîðêè X[n] è Y[m] â îáùèé âàðèàöèîííûé ðÿä.
Ïðèïèøåì êàæäîìó ýëåìåíòó âàðèàöèîííîãî ðÿäà ðàíã,
ò. å. íîìåð ýëåìåíòà â îáùåì âàðèàöèîííîì ðÿäó. Ðàâíûì
ýëåìåíòàì ïðèïèñûâàåì ñðåäíèé ðàíã. Íàïðèìåð, åñëè äâà
ðàâíûõ ýëåìåíòà âàðèàöèîííîãî ðÿäà ñòîÿò íà 4 è 5 ìåñòàõ,
òî êàæäîìó èç ýòèõ ýëåìåíòîâ ïðèïèøåì ðàíã 4,5. Îáîçíà-
÷èì ðàíãè ýëåìåíòîâ âûáîðêè Y[m] = {y1 , . . . , ym } â îáùåì
âàðèàöèîííîì ðÿäó ÷åðåç r1 , . . . , rm .
2. Âû÷èñëèì ñòàòèñòèêó Âèëêîêñîíà ïî ñëåäóþùåé ôîðìóëå:
W − m(n + m + 1)/2
W ∗ (X[n] , Y[m] ) = p . (2.3.7)
mn(m + n + 1)/12
48
Ïðè àëüòåðíàòèâå H1 : F (·) > G(·) êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü:
(u1−α , ∞), ãäå u1−α êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ 1 − α ñòàíäàðòíîãî íîð-
ìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ.
Ïðè àëüòåðíàòèâå H1 : F (·) 6 G(·) êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü:
(−∞, uα ), ãäå uα êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ α ñòàíäàðòíîãî íîðìàëüíîãî
ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ.
Ïðè äâóñòîðîííåé àëüòåðíàòèâå H1 : F (·) 6= G(·) êðèòè÷å-
ñêàÿ îáëàñòü: (−∞, u α2 ) ∪ (u1− α2 , ∞), ãäå u α2 , u1− α2 êâàíòèëè
ñòàíäàðòíîãî íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ óðîâíåé α2 , 1 − α2 .
Åñëè ÷èñëåííîå çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè W ∗ (X[n] , Y[m] ) ïîïàäà-
åò â êðèòè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü, òî íóëåâàÿ ãèïîòåçà H0 îòâåðãàåòñÿ,
â ïðîòèâíîì ñëó÷àå íåò îñíîâàíèé åå îòâåðãíóòü ïðè óðîâíå çíà-
÷èìîñòè ïðèáëèæåííî ðàâíîì α.
 ñëó÷àå, êîãäà ÷èñëî îäèíàêîâûõ íàáëþäåíèé âåëèêî, íåîá-
õîäèìî èñïðàâèòü ñòàòèñòèêó (2.3.6) ñëåäóþùèì îáðàçîì. Ãðóï-
ïû îäèíàêîâûõ íàáëþäåíèé íàçûâàþò ñâÿçêàìè. Íàëè÷èå ñâÿçîê
âëèÿåò íà àñèìïòîòè÷åñêîå ðàñïðåäåëåíèå ñòàòèñòèêè Âèëêîêñî-
íà. Ïðè èñïîëüçîâàíèè íîðìàëüíîé àïïðîêñèìàöèè ñëåäóåò èñ-
ïîëüçîâàòü ôîðìóëó
W − m(n + m + 1)/2
W
c (X[n] , Y[m] ) = v ,
g
u
tk (t2k −1)
P
u
k=1
tmn (m + n + 1) − (m+n)(m+n−1) /12
u
(2.3.8)
ãäå t1 , t2 , . . ., tg ðàçìåðû íàáëþäàåìûõ ñâÿçîê ñðåäè yj ; g
îáùåå ÷èñëî ñâÿçîê. Íàáëþäåíèå, íå ñîâïàäàþùåå ñ êàêèì-ëèáî
äðóãèì íàáëþäåíèåì, ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ êàê ñâÿçêà ðàçìåðà 1 è,
êàê âèäèì, â ôîðìóëå (2.3.8) íå ó÷èòûâàåòñÿ.
49
àëüòåðíàòèâû H1 : F (·) 6 G(·) (ëåâîñòîðîííÿÿ àëüòåðíàòèâà).
Ìîæíî òàêæå ðàññìàòðèâàòü îáúåäèíåíèå îáåèõ âîçìîæíîñòåé
H1 : F (·) 6= G(·) (äâóñòîðîííÿÿ àëüòåðíàòèâà).
Êðèòåðèé ÌàííàÓèòíè îñíîâàí íà ïàðíîì ñðàâíåíèè ýëå-
ìåíòîâ ïåðâîé è âòîðîé âûáîðîê. Ñòàòèñòèêà ÌàííàÓèòíè
ýòî ÷èñëî óñïåõîâ (xi < yj ) â ïàðíûõ ñðàâíåíèÿõ. Ïóñòü
(
1, åñëè xi < yj ,
I{xi < yj } =
0, åñëè xi > yj .
m(m + 1)
W =U+ .
2
50
2.3.5. Êðèòåðèè îäíîðîäíîñòè Âèëêîêñîíà
è ÌàííàÓèòíè â R, Excel
Äëÿ ïðîâåðêè ãèïîòåçû îäíîðîäíîñòè ïî êðèòåðèþ Ìàííà
Óèòíè ïðîãðàììà R ïðåäîñòàâëÿåò ôóíêöèþ wilcox.test. Àð-
ãóìåíòû ôóíêöèè wilcox.test:
• x, y âûáîðêè;
• alternative àëüòåðíàòèâíàÿ ãèïîòåçà, ïðèíèìàåò çíà÷å-
íèÿ "two.sided" (äâóñòîðîííÿÿ, ïî óìîë÷àíèþ), "greater"
(áîëüøå) èëè "less" (ìåíüøå). Àëüòåðíàòèâà "greater"
óòâåðæäàåò, ÷òî F (x) ìåíüøå G(x);
• exact ïðèíèìàåò çíà÷åíèÿ FALSE è TRUE è â ñëó÷àå TRUE âû-
âîäèò òî÷íîå çíà÷åíèå p-value. Ïî óìîë÷àíèþ exact=FALSE,
è òî÷íîå çíà÷åíèå p-value âû÷èñëÿåòñÿ, åñëè âûáîðêè ñîäåð-
æàò ìåíüøå 50 ýëåìåíòîâ êàæäàÿ, è â âûáîðêàõ íåò ñâÿçîê.
 ïðîòèâíîì ñëó÷àå èñïîëüçóåòñÿ àïïðîêñèìàöèÿ íîðìàëü-
íûì ðàñïðåäåëåíèåì;
• correct ïðèíèìàåò çíà÷åíèÿ FALSE è TRUE è â ñëó÷àå TRUE
ïðèìåíÿåòñÿ àïïðîêñèìàöèÿ íîðìàëüíûì ðàñïðåäåëåíèåì.
x <- c(0.80, 0.83, 1.89, 1.04, 1.45, 1.38, 1.91, 1.64, 0.73,
1.46)
y <- c(1.15, 0.88, 0.90, 0.74, 1.21)
wilcox.test(x, y, alternative = "two.sided")
51
ðàíã ýëåìåíòà, à îêîí÷àíèå .ÑÐ, ñîîáùàåò î òîì, ÷òî, â ñëó÷àå
îáíàðóæåíèÿ ýëåìåíòîâ ñ ðàâíûìè çíà÷åíèÿìè, âîçâðàùàåòñÿ èõ
ñðåäíèé ðàíã. Àðãóìåíòàìè ôóíêöèè ÿâëÿþòñÿ (÷èñëî; ññûëêà;
[ïîðÿäîê]), ãäå ÷èñëî ýëåìåíò, ðàíã êîòîðîãî íåîáõîäèìî íàé-
òè; ññûëêà ññûëêà íà äèàïàçîí ñî ñïèñêîì ýëåìåíòîâ, ñîäåðæà-
ùèõ ìàññèâ äàííûõ. Ïîðÿäîê ëîãè÷åñêîå çíà÷åíèå, îòâå÷àþùåå
çà òèï ñîðòèðîâêè: 0 çíà÷åíèå ïî óìîë÷àíèþ (ôóíêöèÿ ïðîâå-
ðÿåò çíà÷åíèÿ ïî óáûâàíèþ), 1 ôóíêöèÿ ïðîâåðÿåò çíà÷åíèÿ
ïî âîçðàñòàíèþ.
52
ðàâíû: σ12 = σ22 = σ 2 .  êà÷åñòâå ñòàòèñòèêè êðèòåðèÿ ðàññìîò-
ðèì
x̄ − ȳ
ϕ2 (X[n] , Y[m] ) = p , (2.4.2)
ŝ 1/n + 1/m
ãäå
s s
ns21 + ms22 (n − 1)s̃21 + (m − 1)s̃22
ŝ = = . (2.4.3)
n+m−2 n+m−2
53
• var.equal ïðèíèìàåò ïî óìîë÷àíèþ çíà÷åíèå FALSE è îçíà-
÷àåò, ÷òî äèñïåðñèè ãåíåðàëüíûõ ñîâîêóïíîñòåé, èç êîòî-
ðûõ èçâëå÷åíû âûáîðêè, íå ðàâíû.  òåñòå ïðîèçâîäèòñÿ
îöåíêà äèñïåðñèé, ñòàòèñòèêà âû÷èñëÿåòñÿ ïî ôîðìóëå
x̄ − ȳ
ϕ3 (X[n] , Y[m] ) = p . (2.4.4)
s̃21 /n + s̃22 /m
54
 ðåçóëüòàòå ðàáîòû ôóíêöèè ïîëó÷åíû ðåçóëüòàòû, ñðå-
äè êîòîðûõ åñòü ñëåäóþùèå: çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè êðèòåðèÿ
t=-3.1359, êîëè÷åñòâî ñòåïåíåé ñâîáîäû ñòàòèñòèêè df=78,
95%-íûé äîâåðèòåëüíûé èíòåðâàë äëÿ ðàçíîñòè a1 − a2 :
(-1.2546485;-0.2802149). Äëÿ óðîâíÿ çíà÷èìîñòè 0.05 íóëåâàÿ
ãèïîòåçà îòâåðãàåòñÿ â ïîëüçó àëüòåðíàòèâíîé, ïîñêîëüêó ïîëó-
÷åííîå çíà÷åíèå p-value = 0.002417 ìåíüøå óðîâíÿ çíà÷èìîñòè
êðèòåðèÿ.
55
öèÿ èìååò âèä: CÒÜÞÄÅÍÒ.ÒÅÑÒ(ìàññèâ1;ìàññèâ2;õâîñòû;òèï),
ãäå
• ìàññèâ1 ïåðâàÿ âûáîðêà;
• ìàññèâ2 âòîðàÿ âûáîðêà;
• õâîñòû ÷èñëî õâîñòîâ ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ. Åñëè õâîñòû=1, òî
ôóíêöèÿ CÒÜÞÄÅÍÒ.ÒÅÑÒ èñïîëüçóåò îäíîñòîðîííåå ðàñïðå-
äåëåíèå. Åñëè õâîñòû=2, òî ôóíêöèÿ CÒÜÞÄÅÍÒ.ÒÅÑÒ èñ-
ïîëüçóåò äâóñòîðîííåå ðàñïðåäåëåíèå;
• òèï âèä âûïîëíÿåìîãî t-òåñòà. Åñëè òèï=1, òî âûïîëíÿåò-
ñÿ t-òåñò äëÿ ïàðíûõ äàííûõ. Åñëè òèï=2, òî âûïîëíÿåòñÿ
äâóõâûáîðî÷íûé òåñò ñ íåèçâåñòíûìè, íî ðàâíûìè äèñïåð-
ñèÿìè (ãîìîñêåäàñòè÷åñêèé), åñëè òèï=3, òî âûïîëíÿåòñÿ
äâóõâûáîðî÷íûé òåñò ñ íåèçâåñòíûìè íåðàâíûìè äèñïåð-
ñèÿìè (ãåòåðîñêåäàñòè÷åñêèé).
Çàìå÷àíèÿ ïî ôóíêöèè CÒÜÞÄÅÍÒ.ÒÅÑÒ:
1. Åñëè àðãóìåíòû ìàññèâ1 è ìàññèâ2 èìåþò ðàçëè÷íîå ÷èñëî
òî÷åê äàííûõ, à òèï=1, òî ôóíêöèÿ CÒÜÞÄÅÍÒ.ÒÅÑÒ âîçâðà-
ùàåò çíà÷åíèå îøèáêè #Í/Ä.
2. Àðãóìåíòû õâîñòû è òèï óñåêàþòñÿ äî öåëûõ çíà÷åíèé.
3. Ôóíêöèÿ CÒÜÞÄÅÍÒ.ÒÅÑÒ èñïîëüçóåò äàííûå àðãóìåíòîâ
ìàññèâ1 è ìàññèâ2 äëÿ âû÷èñëåíèÿ íåîòðèöàòåëüíîé
t-ñòàòèñòèêè. Åñëè õâîñòû=1, CÒÜÞÄÅÍÒ.ÒÅÑÒ âîçâðàùàåò
âåðîÿòíîñòü áîëåå âûñîêîãî çíà÷åíèÿ t-ñòàòèñòèêè, èñõî-
äÿ èç ïðåäïîëîæåíèÿ, ÷òî ìàññèâ1 è ìàññèâ2 ÿâëÿþò-
ñÿ âûáîðêàìè, ïðèíàäëåæàùèìè ãåíåðàëüíîé ñîâîêóïíî-
ñòè ñ îäíèì è òåì æå ñðåäíèì. Çíà÷åíèå, âîçâðàùàåìîå
ôóíêöèåé CÒÜÞÄÅÍÒ.ÒÅÑÒ â ñëó÷àå, êîãäà õâîñòû=2, âäâîå
áîëüøå çíà÷åíèÿ, âîçâðàùàåìîãî, êîãäà õâîñòû=1, è ñîîò-
âåòñòâóåò âåðîÿòíîñòè áîëåå âûñîêîãî àáñîëþòíîãî çíà÷å-
íèÿ t-ñòàòèñòèêè, èñõîäÿ èç ïðåäïîëîæåíèÿ, ÷òî ìàññèâ1 è
ìàññèâ2 ÿâëÿþòñÿ âûáîðêàìè, ïðèíàäëåæàùèìè ãåíåðàëü-
íîé ñîâîêóïíîñòè ñ îäíèì è òåì æå ñðåäíèì.
Òàêæå â ïðîãðàììå Excel â íàäñòðîéêå Àíàëèç äàííûõ
ñóùåñòâóåò âîçìîæíîñòü ïðîâåðêè ãèïîòåç ïî êðèòåðèþ
Ñòüþäåíòà â ñëó÷àå, êîãäà äèñïåðñèè ãåíåðàëüíûõ ñîâîêóï-
íîñòåé íåèçâåñòíû. Â íàäñòðîéêå Àíàëèç äàííûõ íåîáõîäè-
ìî âûáðàòü âèä t-òåñòà: Äâóõâûáîðî÷íûé t-òåñò ñ ðàâíûìè
äèñïåðñèÿìè, Äâóõâûáîðî÷íûé t-òåñò ñ íåðàâíûìè äèñïåðñèÿ-
ìè. Â ðåçóëüòàòå ðàáîòû ýòèõ äâóõ òåñòîâ âûäàþòñÿ
ñëåäóþùèå ÷èñëåííûå çíà÷åíèÿ: ñðåäíåå, äèñïåðñèÿ, íàáëþ-
56
äåíèÿ, ãèïîòåòè÷åñêàÿ ðàçíîñòü ñðåäíèõ, ÷èñëî ñòåïåíåé
ñâîáîäû, t-ñòàòèñòèêà, P(T>=t) îäíîñòîðîííåå, t êðèòè÷åñêîå
îäíîñòîðîííåå, P(T>=t) äâóñòîðîííåå, t êðèòè÷åñêîå äâóñòî-
ðîííåå.
Çíà÷åíèå t-ñòàòèñòèêè âû÷èñëÿåòñÿ è îòîáðàæàåòñÿ êàê
t-ñòàòèñòèêà â âûâîäèìîé òàáëèöå. Â çàâèñèìîñòè îò äàííûõ,
ýòî çíà÷åíèå t ìîæåò áûòü îòðèöàòåëüíûì èëè íåîòðèöàòåëü-
íûì. Åñëè ïðåäïîëîæèòü, ÷òî ñðåäíèå ãåíåðàëüíûõ ñîâîêóïíî-
ñòåé ðàâíû, ïðè t < 0 P(T<=t) îäíîñòîðîííåå äàåò âåðîÿòíîñòü
òîãî, ÷òî íàáëþäàåìîå çíà÷åíèå t-ñòàòèñòèêè áóäåò ¾áîëåå îò-
ðèöàòåëüíûì¿, ÷åì t. Ïðè t > 0 P(T<=t) îäíîñòîðîííåå äåëà-
åò âîçìîæíûì íàáëþäåíèå çíà÷åíèÿ t-ñòàòèñòèêè, êîòîðîå áó-
äåò ¾áîëåå ïîëîæèòåëüíûì¿, ÷åì t. Âåëè÷èíà t êðèòè÷åñêîå
îäíîñòîðîííåå âûäàåò ïîðîãîâîå çíà÷åíèå, òàê ÷òî âåðîÿòíîñòü
íàáëþäåíèÿ çíà÷åíèÿ t-ñòàòèñòèêè áîëüøåãî èëè ðàâíîãî t
êðèòè÷åñêîå îäíîñòîðîííåå ðàâíî α.
Çíà÷åíèå P(T>=t) äâóñòîðîííåå ðàâíî âåðîÿòíîñòè íàáëþ-
äåíèÿ t-ñòàòèñòèêè ïî àáñîëþòíîìó çíà÷åíèþ áîëüøåãî, ÷åì t.
Çíà÷åíèå P êðèòè÷åñêîå äâóñòîðîííåå âûäàåò ïîðîãîâîå çíà÷å-
íèå òîãî, ÷òî âåðîÿòíîñòü íàáëþäåíèÿ t-ñòàòèñòèêè ïî àáñîëþò-
íîìó çíà÷åíèþ áîëüøåãî P êðèòè÷åñêîå äâóñòîðîííåå ðàâíî α.
Äëÿ îïðåäåëåíèÿ òåñòîâîé âåëè÷èíû t èñïîëüçóåòñÿ ôîðìó-
ëà:
x̄ − ȳ − ∆0
t= p 2 ,
s̃1 /n + s̃22 /m
ãäå ∆0 ãèïîòåòè÷åñêàÿ ðàçíîñòü ìàòåìàòè÷åñêèõ îæèäàíèé èñ-
ñëåäóåìûõ ãåíåðàëüíûõ ñîâîêóïíîñòåé. Äëÿ ïðîâåðêè ðàâåíñòâà
ñðåäíèõ ∆0 = 0.
Äëÿ âû÷èñëåíèÿ êîëè÷åñòâà ñòåïåíåé ñâîáîäû df èñïîëü-
çóåòñÿ ôîðìóëà (2.4.5). Òàê êàê ðåçóëüòàò âû÷èñëåíèÿ îáû÷-
íî íå áûâàåò öåëûì ÷èñëîì, çíà÷åíèå df îêðóãëÿåòñÿ äî öåëî-
ãî äëÿ ïîëó÷åíèÿ ïîðîãîâîãî çíà÷åíèÿ èç t-òàáëèöû. Ôóíêöèÿ
CÒÜÞÄÅÍÒ.ÒÅÑÒ ïî âîçìîæíîñòè èñïîëüçóåò âû÷èñëåííûå çíà÷å-
íèÿ áåç îêðóãëåíèÿ äëÿ âû÷èñëåíèÿ çíà÷åíèÿ CÒÜÞÄÅÍÒ.ÒÅÑÒ ñ
íåöåëûì çíà÷åíèåì df. Èç-çà ðàçíèöû ïîäõîäîâ ê îïðåäåëåíèþ
ñòåïåíåé ñâîáîäû, ðåçóëüòàòû ôóíêöèé CÒÜÞÄÅÍÒ.ÒÅÑÒ è t-òåñò
áóäóò ðàçëè÷àòüñÿ â ñëó÷àå ñ ðàçíûìè íåèçâåñòíûìè äèñïåðñè-
ÿìè.
Ïðèìåð 2.4.2. Äàíû äâå âûáîðêè X è Y (ñì. òàáë. 2.3)
îáúåìîâ 11 è 7 ñîîòâåòñòâåííî. Äàííûå âçÿòû ñ ñàéòà:
57
http://lib.stat.cmu.edu/DASL/ Datafiles/Cities.html. Ýëå-
ìåíòû âûáîðêè X (Y ) ïðåäñòàâëÿþò óñëîâíóþ ñòîèìîñòü ¾êîð-
çèíû¿ èç 112 òîâàðîâ è óñëóã â 1991 ãîäó â íåêîòîðûõ ãîðîäàõ
Åâðîïû è Ñåâåðíîé Àìåðèêè.
Òàáë. 2.3. Ñòîèìîñòü ¾êîðçèíû¿ òîâàðîâ è óñëóã â 1991 ã.
A B
2 Ãîðîäà Åâðîïû
3 Àìñòåðäàì 65,6
4 Àôèíû 53,8
5 Áðþññåëü 73,8
6 Êîïåíãàãåí 91,3
7 Äþññåëüäîðô 78,5
8 Ôðàíêôóðò 74,5
9 Ìàäðèä 93,8
10 Ìèëàí 82
11 Ïàðèæ 81,6
12 Öþðèõ 100
13 Âåíà 78
16 Õüþñòîí 71,9
17 Ëîñ-Àíäæåëåñ 79,8
18 Ìåõèêî 49,8
19 Ìîíðåàëü 72,7
20 Íüþ-Éîðê 83,3
21 Òîðîíòî 70,2
58
÷åíèå p-value, ðàâíîå 0,2099391231. Ïðè óðîâíå çíà÷èìîñòè
α = 0.05 íåò îñíîâàíèé îòâåðãíóòü íóëåâóþ ãèïîòåçó î ðàâåíñòâå
ìàòåìàòè÷åñêèõ îæèäàíèé, ïîñêîëüêó p-value > 0.05.
Òåïåðü âîñïîëüçóåìñÿ t-òåñòîì â íàäñòðîéêå Àíàëèç äàííûõ.
Îêíî Äâóõâûáîðî÷íîãî t-òåñòà ñ îäèíàêîâûìè äèñïåðñèÿìè
èçîáðàæåíî íà ðèñ. 2.2.
A B C
33 Íàáëþäåíèÿ 11 7
36 df 16
37 t-ñòàòèñòèêà 1,3062
59
äàåò â êðèòè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü, òî íåò îñíîâàíèé îòâåðãíóòü íóëå-
âóþ ãèïîòåçó. Ìîæíî òàêæå ñêàçàòü, ÷òî ïðè äâóñòîðîííåé àëü-
òåðíàòèâå íåò îñíîâàíèé îòâåðãíóòü íóëåâóþ ãèïîòåçó, ïîñêîëü-
êó äâóñòîðîííåå p-value, ðàâíîå 0.2099, áîëüøå óðîâíÿ çíà÷èìî-
ñòè 0.05.
nj s2j
P̀
j=1
š2 = , (2.4.9)
n1 + . . . + n` − `
nj
P 2
(xji − x̄j )
i=1
2
sj = . (2.4.10)
nj
Ïðè ñïðàâåäëèâîñòè ãèïîòåçû H0 ñòàòèñòèêà (2.4.6) ïîä÷èíÿåòñÿ
P`
ðàñïðåäåëåíèþ Ôèøåðà ñ (` − 1, j=1 nj − `) ñòåïåíÿìè ñâîáîäû.
60
Àëãîðèòì êðèòåðèÿ ðàâåíñòâà ` ñðåäíèõ âûáîðîê èç íîð-
ìàëüíî ðàñïðåäåëåííûõ ãåíåðàëüíûõ ñîâîêóïíîñòåé ïðè óñëîâèè,
÷òî èõ äèñïåðñèè íåèçâåñòíû, íî ðàâíû
1. Âûäâèãàåì íóëåâóþ ãèïîòåçó H0 : a1 = . . . = a` è àëüòåð-
íàòèâíóþ åé, êîòîðàÿ çàêëþ÷àåòñÿ â îòðèöàíèè ãèïîòåçû
H0 .
2. Çàäàåì óðîâåíü çíà÷èìîñòè êðèòåðèÿ α.
3. Âû÷èñëÿåì çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè γ(X[n1 ] , . . . , X[n` ] ) ïî ôîð-
ìóëàì (2.4.6)(2.4.10).
4. ×èñëèòåëü äðîáè â ïðàâîé ÷àñòè (2.4.6) ïðè íàðóøåíèè
ãèïîòåçû H0 èìååò òåíäåíöèþ ê âîçðàñòàíèþ òåì áîëü-
øåìó, ÷åì áîëüøå îòêëîíåíèå îò H0 . Ïîýòîìó ïðîòèâ H0
ãîâîðÿò áîëüøèå çíà÷åíèÿ ñòàòèñòèêè (2.4.6).  êà÷åñòâå
êðèòè÷åñêîé îáëàñòè äëÿ H0 è óðîâíÿ çíà÷èìîñòè α öå-
ëåñîîáðàçíî âûáðàòü îáëàñòü (F1−α,`−1,P` nj −` ; ∞), ãäå
j=1
F1−α,`−1,P` nj −` êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ 1 − α ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
j=1
P`
Ôèøåðà ñ (` − 1, j=1 nj − `) ñòåïåíÿìè ñâîáîäû.
5. Åñëè ÷èñëåííîå çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè γ(X[n1 ] , . . . , X[n` ] ) ïî-
ïàäåò â êðèòè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü, òî íóëåâàÿ ãèïîòåçà H0 îò-
âåðãàåòñÿ, â ïðîòèâíîì ñëó÷àå íåò îñíîâàíèé åå îòâåðãíóòü
ïðè óðîâíå çíà÷èìîñòè α.
61
Ïðèìåð 2.4.3. Äëÿ âûáîðîê x = {4, 3, 4, 5, 2, 3, 4, 5}, y = {4, 4,
5, 5, 4, 5, 4, 4}, z = {3, 4, 2, 4, 5, 5, 4, 4}, èçâëå÷åííûõ èç íîð-
ìàëüíûõ ãåíåðàëüíûõ ñîâîêóïíîñòåé ñ ðàâíûìè äèñïåðñèÿìè,
ïðîâåðèòü ãèïîòåçó î ðàâåíñòâå ìàòåìàòè÷åñêèõ îæèäàíèé.
x = c(4,3,4,5,2,3,4,5)##
ââîäèì ýëåìåíòû âûáîðêè x
y = c(4,4,5,5,4,5,4,4)##
ââîäèì ýëåìåíòû âûáîðêè y
z = c(3,4,2,4,5,5,4,4)##
ââîäèì ýëåìåíòû âûáîðêè z
bigsample=data.frame(x,y,z) ##
ñîçäàåì òàáëèöó
bigsample=stack(bigsample) ##
îáúåäèíÿåì äàííûå, êàæäîìó ýëåìåíòó ìàññèâà ïðèñâàèâàåòñÿ
ìåòêà, èç êàêîé âûáîðêè îí áûë èçâëå÷åí
oneway.test(values ind, data=bigsample, var.equal=T)
62
s21 n/(n − 1) s̃21
F (X[n] , Y[m] ) = = , (2.4.11)
s22 m/(m − 1) s̃22
ãäå s21 , s22 âûáîðî÷íûå äèñïåðñèè âûáîðîê X[n] è Y[m] .
Ñòàòèñòèêà F (X[n] , Y[m] ) ïðè ñïðàâåäëèâîñòè ãèïîòåçû H0
ïîä÷èíÿåòñÿ ðàñïðåäåëåíèþ Ôèøåðà ñ (n − 1, m − 1) ñòåïåíÿìè
ñâîáîäû.
Àëãîðèòì êðèòåðèÿ ÔèøåðàÑíåäåêîðà
1. Âûäâèãàåì íóëåâóþ ãèïîòåçó H0 : σ12 = σ22 è àëüòåðíàòèâ-
íóþ åé H1 : σ12 6= σ22 .
2. Çàäàåì óðîâåíü çíà÷èìîñòè êðèòåðèÿ α.
3. Âû÷èñëÿåì çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè F (X[n] , Y[m] ) ïî ôîðìóëå
(2.4.11).
4. Íàõîäèì êðèòè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü ýòî îáúåäèíåíèå äâóõ
èíòåðâàëîâ [0; F α2 ,n−1,m−1 ) è (F1− α2 ,n−1,m−1 ; ∞), ãäå
F α2 ,n−1,m−1 , F1− α2 ,n−1,m−1 êâàíòèëè óðîâíåé α2 , 1 − α2
ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Ôèøåðà ñ (n − 1, m − 1) ñòåïåíÿìè ñâîáîäû.
5. Åñëè çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè F (X[n] , Y[m] ) ïîïàäåò â êðèòè÷å-
ñêóþ îáëàñòü, òî íóëåâàÿ ãèïîòåçà H0 îòâåðãàåòñÿ, â ïðî-
òèâíîì ñëó÷àå íåò îñíîâàíèé åå îòâåðãíóòü ïðè óðîâíå çíà-
÷èìîñòè α.
63
Âåëè÷èíû q , s̃2j âû÷èñëÿþòñÿ ïî ôîðìóëàì:
−1
`
1 X 1 1
q = 1 + − , (2.4.13)
3(` − 1) j=1 nj − 1 n1 + . . . n` − `
nj s2j
s̃2j = , (2.4.14)
nj − 1
âåëè÷èíû š2 è s2j ìîæíî íàéòè ïî ôîðìóëàì (2.4.9) è (2.4.10)
ñîîòâåòñòâåííî.
Ñòàòèñòèêà B(X[n1 ] , . . . , X[n` ] ) ïîä÷èíÿåòñÿ χ2 -ðàñïðåäåëå-
íèþ ñ ` − 1 ñòåïåíüþ ñâîáîäû ïðè ñïðàâåäëèâîñòè ãèïîòåçû H0 .
Àëãîðèòì êðèòåðèÿ Áàðòëåòòà
1. Âûäâèãàåì íóëåâóþ ãèïîòåçó H0 : σ12 = . . . , σ`2 è àëüòåðíà-
òèâíóþ åé H1 , êîòîðàÿ çàêëþ÷àåòñÿ â îòðèöàíèè H0 .
2. Çàäàåì óðîâåíü çíà÷èìîñòè êðèòåðèÿ α.
3. Ïî ôîðìóëàì (2.4.12)(2.4.14) âû÷èñëÿåì çíà÷åíèå ñòàòè-
ñòèêè B(X[n1 ] , . . . , X[n` ] ).
4. Íàõîäèì êðèòè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü èíòåðâàë (χ21−α,`−1 ; ∞),
ãäå χ21−α,`−1 êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ 1 − α χ2 -ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ñ
` − 1 ñòåïåíüþ ñâîáîäû.
5. Åñëè çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè B(X[n1 ] , . . . , X[n` ] ) ïîïàäàåò â èí-
òåðâàë (χ21−α,`−1 ; ∞), òî íóëåâàÿ ãèïîòåçà H0 îòâåðãàåòñÿ, â
ïðîòèâíîì ñëó÷àå íåò îñíîâàíèé åå îòâåðãíóòü ïðè óðîâíå
çíà÷èìîñòè α.
64
Ïðèìåð 2.4.4. Äëÿ ñìîäåëèðîâàííûõ âûáîðîê îáúåìà 50 è 40
èç ãåíåðàëüíûõ ñîâîêóïíîñòåé ñ íîðìàëüíûì ðàñïðåäåëåíèåì ñ
ïàðàìåòðàìè (0, 1) è (0, 4) ñîîòâåòñòâåííî ïðîâåðèòü ãèïîòåçó î
ðàâåíñòâå äèñïåðñèé.
65
Ðåçóëüòàò ðàáîòû ôóíêöèè bartlett.test:
66
Äëÿ ðåøåíèÿ çàäà÷è ìîæíî âîñïîëüçîâàòüñÿ ñðåäñòâîì
Äâóõâûáîðî÷íûé F-òåñò íàäñòðîéêè Àíàëèç äàííûõ. Îêíî òåñòà
èçîáðàæåíî íà ðèñ. 2.3, à ðåçóëüòàòîì òåñòà áóäåò òàáëèöà 2.5.
Òåñòîì ðàññ÷èòûâàåòñÿ òîëüêî îäíîñòîðîííåå çíà÷åíèå p-value.
A B C
28 Íàáëþäåíèÿ 11 7
29 df 10 6
30 F 1,4731
67
2.5. Êðèòåðèè î çíà÷åíèè ïàðàìåòðîâ
ðàñïðåäåëåíèé
x̄ − a0 √
η(X[n] ) = n, (2.5.1)
σ
ãäå x̄ âûáîðî÷íîå ñðåäíåå, íàéäåííîå ïî âûáîðêå X[n] .
 ñëó÷àå âûïîëíåíèÿ ãèïîòåçû H0 ñòàòèñòèêà η(X[n] ) ïîä-
÷èíÿåòñÿ ñòàíäàðòíîìó íîðìàëüíîìó ðàñïðåäåëåíèþ.
68
u1− α2 êâàíòèëè óðîâíåé α2 è 1 − α2 ñòàíäàðòíîãî íîðìàëü-
íîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ. Â ñèëó ñèììåòðèè ïëîòíîñòè ñòàí-
äàðòíîãî íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ u α2 = −u1− α2 .
5. Åñëè ÷èñëåííîå çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè η(X[n] ) ïîïàäåò â êðè-
òè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü, òî íóëåâàÿ ãèïîòåçà H0 îòâåðãàåòñÿ, â
ïðîòèâíîì ñëó÷àå íåò îñíîâàíèé åå îòâåðãíóòü ïðè óðîâíå
çíà÷èìîñòè α.
 ñëó÷àå, êîãäà äèñïåðñèÿ σ 2 íåèçâåñòíà, òî ñòàòèñòèêà êðè-
òåðèÿ áóäåò èìåòü âèä:
x̄ − a0 √ x̄ − a0 √
τ (X[n] ) = n−1= n, (2.5.2)
s s̃
ãäå s2 âûáîðî÷íàÿ äèñïåðñèÿ, à s̃2 èñïðàâëåííàÿ âûáîðî÷íàÿ
äèñïåðñèÿ.
 ñëó÷àå ñïðàâåäëèâîñòè ãèïîòåçû H0 ñòàòèñòèêà τ (X[n] )
ïîä÷èíÿåòñÿ ðàñïðåäåëåíèþ Ñòüþäåíòà ñ n−1 ñòåïåíüþ ñâîáîäû.
Îïðåäåëèì êðèòè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü, ñîîòâåòñòâóþùóþ êàæ-
äîé èç êîíêóðèðóþùèõ ãèïîòåç.  ñëó÷àå, êîãäà H1 : a > a0 ,
ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ ïðàâîñòîðîííÿÿ êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü èíòåð-
âàë (t1−α,n−1 ; ∞), ãäå t1−α,n−1 êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ 1 − α ðàñïðå-
äåëåíèÿ Ñòüþäåíòà ñ n − 1 ñòåïåíüþ ñâîáîäû.
 ñëó÷àå, êîãäà H1 : a < a0 , ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ ëåâîñòîðîí-
íÿÿ êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü èíòåðâàë (−∞; tα,n−1 ), ãäå tα,n−1
êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ α ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Ñòüþäåíòà ñ n − 1 ñòåïåíüþ
ñâîáîäû.
 ñëó÷àå, êîãäà H1 : a 6= a0 , ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ äâóñòîðîííÿÿ
êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü: (−∞; t α2 ,n−1 ) ∪ (t1− α2 ,n−1 ; ∞), ãäå t α2 ,n−1 è
t1− α2 ,n−1 êâàíòèëè óðîâíåé α2 è 1− α2 ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Ñòüþäåíòà
ñ n − 1 ñòåïåíüþ ñâîáîäû. Â ñèëó ñèììåòðèè ïëîòíîñòè ðàñïðå-
äåëåíèÿ Ñòüþäåíòà èìååò ìåñòî ðàâåíñòâî t α2 ,n−1 = −t1− α2 ,n−1 .
Åñëè ÷èñëåííîå çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè τ (X[n] ) ïîïàäåò â êðèòè÷å-
ñêóþ îáëàñòü, òî íóëåâàÿ ãèïîòåçà H0 îòâåðãàåòñÿ, â ïðîòèâíîì
ñëó÷àå íåò îñíîâàíèé åå îòâåðãíóòü ïðè óðîâíå çíà÷èìîñòè α.
69
â êà÷åñòâå àëüòåðíàòèâíîé ãèïîòåçû îäíó èç òðåõ ãèïîòåç:
H1 : σ 2 > σ02 , H1 : σ 2 < σ02 èëè H1 : σ 2 6= σ02 .
 êà÷åñòâå ñòàòèñòèêè êðèòåðèÿ ðàññìîòðèì ôóíêöèþ:
ns2 (n − 1)s̃2
π(X[n] ) = = , (2.5.3)
σ02 σ02
70
• conf.level îïöèÿ, êîòîðàÿ îïðåäåëÿåò äîâåðèòåëüíóþ
âåðîÿòíîñòü (1 − α, ãäå α óðîâåíü çíà÷èìîñòè êðèòåðèÿ).
Ïî óìîë÷àíèþ conf.level=0,95.
71
2. Ôóíêöèÿ Z.ÒÅÑÒ âû÷èñëÿåòñÿ ñëåäóþùèì îáðàçîì. Åñ-
ëè àðãóìåíò ñèãìà íå îïóùåí, Z.ÒÅÑÒ(ìàññèâ;x;ñèãìà)=
1−ÍÎÐÌ.ÑÒ.ÐÀÑÏ(η(X[n] ); 1).
Åñëè àðãóìåíò ñèãìà îïóùåí, Z.ÒÅÑÒ(ìàññèâ;x;ñèãìà)=
1−ÍÎÐÌ.ÑÒ.ÐÀÑÏ(τ (X[n] ); 1).
3. Ôóíêöèÿ Z.ÒÅÑÒ ïðåäñòàâëÿåò âåðîÿòíîñòü òîãî, ÷òî âûáî-
ðî÷íîå ñðåäíåå áóäåò áîëüøå ñðåäíåãî çíà÷åíèÿ ìíîæåñòâà
ðàññìîòðåííûõ äàííûõ ÑÐÇÍÀ×(ìàññèâ) ïðè çíà÷åíèè ìà-
òåìàòè÷åñêîãî îæèäàíèÿ, ðàâíîì x.
Èñõîäÿ èç ñèììåòðèè íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ, åñëè
ÑÐÇÍÀ×(ìàññèâ)<x, ôóíêöèÿ Z.ÒÅÑÒ âåðíåò çíà÷åíèå áîëü-
øå 0.5.
72
Ñòàòèñòèêà B(X[n] ) â ñëó÷àå ñïðàâåäëèâîñòè ãèïîòåçû H0 ïîä-
÷èíÿåòñÿ áèíîìèàëüíîìó ðàñïðåäåëåíèþ.
Àëãîðèòì êðèòåðèÿ î çíà÷åíèè ïàðàìåòðà ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
Áåðíóëëè
1. Âûäâèãàåì íóëåâóþ ãèïîòåçó H0 : p = p0 è îäíó èç àëüòåð-
íàòèâíûõ åé H1 : p > p0 , H1 : p < p0 èëè H1 : p 6= p0 .
2. Çàäàåì óðîâåíü çíà÷èìîñòè êðèòåðèÿ α.
3. Âû÷èñëÿåì çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè B(X[n] ) ïî ôîðìóëå
(2.5.4).
4. Íàõîäèì êðèòè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü, ñîîòâåòñòâóþùóþ êàæäîé
èç àëüòåðíàòèâ.
 ñëó÷àå, êîãäà H1 : p > p0 , ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ ïðàâîñòî-
ðîííÿÿ êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü èíòåðâàë [b1−α,n,p0 ; n], ãäå
b1−α,n,p0 êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ 1 − α áèíîìèàëüíîãî ðàñïðå-
äåëåíèÿ ñ ïàðàìåòðàìè (n, p0 ).
 ñëó÷àå, êîãäà H1 : p < p0 , ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ ëåâîñòî-
ðîííÿÿ êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü èíòåðâàë [0; bα,n,p0 ], ãäå
bα,n,p0 êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ α áèíîìèàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
ñ ïàðàìåòðàìè (n, p0 ).
 ñëó÷àå, êîãäà H1 : p 6= p0 , ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ äâóñòîðîííÿÿ
êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü [0; b α2 ,n,p0 ] ∪ [b1− α2 ,n,p0 ; n], ãäå b α2 ,n,p0
(b1− α2 ,n,p0 ) êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ α2 (1− α2 ) áèíîìèàëüíîãî ðàñ-
ïðåäåëåíèÿ ñ ïàðàìåòðàìè (n, p0 ).
5. Åñëè ÷èñëåííîå çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè B(X[n] ) ïîïàäåò â êðè-
òè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü, òî íóëåâàÿ ãèïîòåçà H0 îòâåðãàåòñÿ, â
ïðîòèâíîì ñëó÷àå íåò îñíîâàíèé åå îòâåðãíóòü ïðè óðîâíå
çíà÷èìîñòè α.
Äëÿ áîëüøèõ çíà÷åíèé n â êà÷åñòâå ñòàòèñòèêè êðèòåðèÿ
ìîæíî âûáðàòü ñëåäóþùóþ ñòàòèñòèêó:
B(X[n] ) − np0
B ∗ (X[n] ) = p . (2.5.5)
np0 (1 − p0 )
Åñëè ãèïîòåçà H0 : p = p0 âåðíà, òî ñòàòèñòèêà B ∗ (X[n] ) àñèìï-
òîòè÷åñêè (ïðè n → ∞) ïîä÷èíÿåòñÿ ñòàíäàðòíîìó íîðìàëüíîìó
ðàñïðåäåëåíèþ.
Àëãîðèòì êðèòåðèÿ î çíà÷åíèè ïàðàìåòðà ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
Áåðíóëëè ïðè áîëüøèõ n
1. Âûäâèãàåì íóëåâóþ ãèïîòåçó H0 : p = p0 è îäíó èç àëüòåð-
íàòèâíûõ åé H1 : p > p0 , H1 : p < p0 èëè H1 : p 6= p0 .
2. Çàäàåì óðîâåíü çíà÷èìîñòè êðèòåðèÿ α.
73
3. Âû÷èñëÿåì çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè B ∗ (X[n] ) ïî ôîðìóëå
(2.5.5).
4. Íàõîäèì êðèòè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü, ñîîòâåòñòâóþùóþ êàæäîé
èç àëüòåðíàòèâ.
 ñëó÷àå, êîãäà H1 : p > p0 , ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ ïðàâîñòîðîí-
íÿÿ êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü èíòåðâàë (u1−α ; ∞), ãäå u1−α
êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ 1 − α ñòàíäàðòíîãî íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðå-
äåëåíèÿ.
 ñëó÷àå, êîãäà H1 : p < p0 , ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ ëåâîñòîðîí-
íÿÿ êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü èíòåðâàë (−∞; uα ), ãäå uα
êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ α ñòàíäàðòíîãî íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëå-
íèÿ.
 ñëó÷àå, êîãäà H1 : p 6= p0 , ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ äâóñòîðîí-
íÿÿ êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü (−∞; u α2 ) ∪ (u1− α2 ; ∞), ãäå u α2
è u1− α2 êâàíòèëè ñòàíäàðòíîãî íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëå-
íèÿ óðîâíåé α2 è 1 − α2 ñîîòâåòñòâåííî.
5. Åñëè ÷èñëåííîå çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè B ∗ (X[n] ) ïîïàäåò â
êðèòè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü, òî íóëåâàÿ ãèïîòåçà H0 îòâåðãàåò-
ñÿ, â ïðîòèâíîì ñëó÷àå íåò îñíîâàíèé åå îòâåðãíóòü ïðè
óðîâíå çíà÷èìîñòè ïðèáëèæåííî ðàâíîì α.
74
Ïðèìåð 2.5.3. Ïðîâåðèì ãèïîòåçó î ðàâåíñòâå ïàðàìåòðà p
÷èñëó 3/4 â ñõåìå èñïûòàíèé Áåðíóëëè, â êîòîðîé ïðîèçîøëî
682 óñïåõà è 243 íåóäà÷è.
75
2.5.6. Êðèòåðèé çíàêîâ äëÿ îäíîé âûáîðêè
Ïóñòü èìååòñÿ âûáîðêà íåçàâèñèìûõ íàáëþäåíèé X[n] = {x1 , . . . ,
xn } èç ãåíåðàëüíîé ñîâîêóïíîñòè ξ ñ íåïðåðûâíîé ôóíêöèåé ðàñ-
ïðåäåëåíèÿ. Êðèòåðèé çíàêîâ ïðîâåðÿåò ãèïîòåçó î ðàâåíñòâå ìå-
äèàíû θ ãåíåðàëüíîé ñîâîêóïíîñòè íåêîòîðîìó ÷èñëîâîìó çíà÷å-
íèþ.
Âûäâèãàåì ãèïîòåçó H0 : θ = θ0 è îäíó èç àëüòåðíàòèâíûõ
åé H1 : θ > θ0 , H1 : θ < θ0 èëè H1 : θ 6= θ0 .
Äëÿ êàæäîãî ýëåìåíòà xi , i = 1, . . . , n, âûáîðêè X[n] îïðå-
äåëèì ÷èñëî yi = xi − θ0 . Äëÿ îïðåäåëåíèÿ ñòàòèñòèêè êðèòåðèÿ
çíàêîâ ââåäåì âñïîìîãàòåëüíóþ ôóíêöèþ:
(
1, yi > 0,
s(yi ) =
0, yi 6 0.
76
 ñëó÷àå, êîãäà H1 : θ < θ0 , ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ ëåâîñòîðîí-
íÿÿ êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü èíòåðâàë [0; bα,n, 12 ], ãäå bα,n, 12
êâàíòèëü óðîâíÿ α áèíîìèàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ñ ïàðà-
ìåòðàìè (n, 12 ).
 ñëó÷àå, êîãäà H1 : θ 6= θ0 , ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ äâóñòîðîííÿÿ
êðèòè÷åñêàÿ îáëàñòü: [0; b α2 ,n, 12 ] ∪ [b1− α2 ,n, 12 ; n], ãäå b α2 ,n, 12 è
b1− α2 ,n, 12 êâàíòèëè áèíîìèàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ ñ ïàðà-
ìåòðàìè (n, 12 ) óðîâíåé α2 è 1 − α2 .
5. Åñëè ÷èñëåííîå çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè S(X[n] ) ïîïàäåò â êðè-
òè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü, òî íóëåâàÿ ãèïîòåçà H0 îòâåðãàåòñÿ, â
ïðîòèâíîì ñëó÷àå íåò îñíîâàíèé åå îòâåðãíóòü ïðè óðîâíå
çíà÷èìîñòè α.
Äëÿ áîëüøèõ çíà÷åíèé n â êà÷åñòâå ñòàòèñòèêè êðèòåðèÿ ìîæíî
âûáðàòü ñëåäóþùóþ ñòàòèñòèêó:
S(X[n] ) − n/2
S ∗ (X[n] ) = p . (2.5.7)
n/4
77
u1− α2 êâàíòèëè ñòàíäàðòíîãî íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëå-
íèÿ óðîâíåé α2 è 1 − α2 .
5. Åñëè ÷èñëåííîå çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè S ∗ (X[n] ) ïîïàäåò â
êðèòè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü, òî íóëåâàÿ ãèïîòåçà H0 îòâåðãàåò-
ñÿ, â ïðîòèâíîì ñëó÷àå íåò îñíîâàíèé åå îòâåðãíóòü ïðè
óðîâíå çíà÷èìîñòè ïðèáëèæåííî ðàâíîì α.
Çàìå÷àíèå 2.5.1. Åñëè ñðåäè çíà÷åíèé y , i = 1, . . . , n åñòü íó-
i
ëè, òî èõ íàäî îòáðîñèòü è ñîîòâåòñòâåííî ñîêðàòèòü n äî ÷èñëà
íåíóëåâûõ çíà÷åíèé yi .
data: x
s = 9, p-value = 0.02148
alternative hypothesis: true median is not equal to 6.5
95 percent confidence interval:
6.571273 7.457455
sample estimates:
median of x
7
78
Conf.Level L.E.pt U.E.pt
Lower Achieved CI 0.9346 6.6000 7.4000
Interpolated CI 0.9500 6.5713 7.4575
Upper Achieved CI 0.9883 6.5000 7.6000
79
Ãëàâà 3
Ðåãðåññèîííûé àíàëèç
80
Êðîìå ïåðâîé ãðóïïû ïðåäïîëîæåíèé áóäåì òàêæå ðàññìàò-
ðèâàòü âòîðóþ ãðóïïó, â êîòîðîé ñôîðìóëèðóåì ïðåäïîëîæåíèå
î ñîâìåñòíîì ðàñïðåäåëåíèè ñëó÷àéíûõ âåëè÷èí εi , i = 1, . . . , n.
Âòîðàÿ ãðóïïà ïðåäïîëîæåíèé. Ñîâìåñòíîå ðàñïðåäåëåíèå
ñëó÷àéíûõ âåëè÷èí εi , i = 1, . . . , n ÿâëÿåòñÿ íîðìàëüíûì ðàñ-
ïðåäåëåíèåì ñ íóëåâûì âåêòîðîì ìàòåìàòè÷åñêèõ îæèäàíèé è
êîâàðèàöèîííîé ìàòðèöåé σ 2 In , ò. å. ñëó÷àéíûé âåêòîð ε =
= (ε1 , . . . , εn )T ∼ N (0, σ 2 In ), ãäå In åäèíè÷íàÿ ìàòðèöà ïî-
ðÿäêà n × n.
Èíîãäà ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ ÷àñòíûé ñëó÷àé ìîäåëè (3.1.1), â
êîòîðîé àïðèîðè ïîëàãàþò β0 = 0.
Ìîäåëü íàáëþäåíèé (3.1.1) ìîæíî çàïèñàòü â ìàòðè÷íîì
âèäå:
Y = Xβ + ε, (3.1.2)
ãäå Y = (y1 , . . . , yn )T , β = (β0 , β1 , . . . , βk )T , ε = (ε1 , . . . , εn )T ,
1 x11 x12 . . . x1k
1 x21 x22 . . . x2k
X=
... ... ... ...
1 xn1 xn2 . . . xnk
X = (X0 , X1 , . . . , XK ),
81
 ýòîì ñëó÷àå â êà÷åñòâå ìèíèìèçèðóåìîãî êðèòåðèÿ ðàñ-
ñìàòðèâàþò
n
X
T
(Y − Xβ) (Y − Xβ) = (yi − β0 − β1 xi1 − . . . − βk xik )2 . (3.1.3)
i=1
β̂ = (X T X)−1 X T Y. (3.1.4)
82
3.1.3. Ñâîéñòâà îöåíîê ìåòîäà íàèìåíüøèõ êâàäðàòîâ
Êàê íåòðóäíî çàìåòèòü, îöåíêè ìåòîäà íàèìåíüøèõ êâàäðàòîâ
îáëàäàþò ñâîéñòâîì íåñìåùåííîñòè:
E β̂ = (X T X)−1 X T EY = (X T X)−1 X T Xβ = β.
83
Íàéäåííàÿ íåñìåùåííàÿ îöåíêà σ̂ 2 = S 2 îäèíî÷íîé äèñïåð-
ñèè σ 2 ïîçâîëÿåò ïîñòðîèòü íåñìåùåííûå îöåíêè âñåõ êîâàðèà-
öèé âåêòîðà îöåíîê β̂ . Äåéñòâèòåëüíî, êàê áûëî ïîëó÷åíî ðà-
íåå, V (β̂) = σ 2 (X T X)−1 , íî òåïåðü, çàìåíÿÿ σ 2 íà S 2 , ïîëó-
÷àåì íåñìåùåííûå îöåíêè âñåõ êîâàðèàöèé è äèñïåðñèé âåêòî-
ðà β̂ , äðóãèìè ñëîâàìè, ýëåìåíòû ìàòðèöû σ̂ 2 (X T X)−1 ÿâëÿþò-
ñÿ íåñìåùåííûìè îöåíêàìè äèñïåðñèé è êîâàðèàöèé îöåíîê β̂j ,
j = 0, . . . , k .
β̂j − βj
q ∼ Tn−k−1 , j = 0, . . . , k, (3.1.8)
S (X T X)−1
j+1,j+1
84
q
β̂j − t1− α2 ,n−k−1 S (X T X)−1
j+1,j+1 ;
q
β̂j + t 1− α
2 ,n−k−1
S (X T X)−1
j+1,j+1 ,
β̂j
tβj = q .
S (X T X)−1
j+1,j+1
85
 ëèíåéíîì ðåãðåññèîííîì àíàëèçå êîýôôèöèåíòîì äåòåðìèíà-
öèè R2 íàçûâàåòñÿ êâàäðàò êîýôôèöèåíòà êîððåëÿöèè ìåæäó
íàáëþäàåìûìè çíà÷åíèÿìè ïîêàçàòåëÿ Y = (y1 , . . . , yn )T è çíà-
÷åíèÿìè ýìïèðè÷åñêîé ôóíêöèè Ŷ = (ŷ1 , . . . , ŷn )T .
Íåòðóäíî ïîêàçàòü, ÷òî òàê êàê X0 = (1, . . . , 1)T , òî âñåãäà
âûïîëíÿåòñÿ ðàâåíñòâî
n
X n
X
ŷi = yi ,
i=1 i=1
ñëåäîâàòåëüíî,
n n
1X 1X
ŷ = ŷi = yi = ȳ.
n i=1 n i=1
86
íà óðîâíå çíà÷èìîñòè α ïîñòðîåííàÿ ëèíåéíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ ñòàòè-
ñòè÷åñêè íåçíà÷èìà. Ìàëûå çíà÷åíèÿ R2 ñâèäåòåëüñòâóþò ïðî-
òèâ ñòàòèñòè÷åñêîé çíà÷èìîñòè ïîñòðîåííîé ëèíåéíîé ðåãðåññèè.
 ýêîíîìåòðèêå ÷àñòî âñòðå÷àåòñÿ ñëåäóþùàÿ èíòåðïðåòàöèÿ êî-
ýôôèöèåíòà äåòåðìèíàöèè, óìíîæåííîãî íà 100, åãî ðàññìàòðè-
âàþò êàê ÷èñëîâóþ õàðàêòåðèñòèêó, èçìåðÿåìóþ â ïðîöåíòàõ,
òîãî, íàñêîëüêî ðåãðåññèÿ ¾îáúÿñíÿåò¿ èçìåí÷èâîñòü èçìåðÿå-
ìîãî ïîêàçàòåëÿ â ñëåäñòâèå èçìåíåíèÿ âûáðàííûõ ôàêòîðîâ.
Ëåììà 3.1.3. Ïóñòü âûïîëíåíû îáå ãðóïïû îñíîâíûõ ïðåäïîëî-
æåíèé ëèíåéíîãî ðåãðåññèîííîãî àíàëèçà, òîãäà â ïðåäïîëîæå-
íèè ñïðàâäåëèâîñòè ãèïîòåçû H0 : β1 = . . . = βk = 0 ñòàòèñòèêà
R2 n − k − 1
F = ∼ Fk,n−k−1
1 − R2 k
ïîä÷èíÿåòñÿ ðàñïðåäåëåíèþ Ôèøåðà ñî ñòåïåíÿìè ñâîáîäû k è
n − k − 1.
Ïîñòðîåííàÿ ëèíåéíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ ñòàòèñòè÷åñêè çíà÷èìà íà
óðîâíå α òîãäà è òîëüêî òîãäà, êîãäà ãèïîòåçà H0 : β1 = . . . =
= βk = 0 îòêëîíÿåòñÿ íà óðîâíå çíà÷èìîñòè α. Ïîýòîìó ïðà-
âèëî ïðîâåðêè ñòàòèñòè÷åñêîé çíà÷èìîñòè ëèíåéíîé ðåãðåññèè â
öåëîì ñôîðìóëèðóåì ñëåäóþùèì îáðàçîì:
R2 n−k−1
• Åñëè F = 1−R 2 k > F1−α;k,n−k−1 , òî ãèïîòåçà H0 :
β1 = . . . = βk = 0 îòêëîíÿåòñÿ íà óðîâíå çíà÷èìîñòè α
è, ñëåäîâàòåëüíî, ïîñòðîåííàÿ ëèíåéíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ ÿâëÿåò-
ñÿ ñòàòèñòè÷åñêè çíà÷èìîé.
• Åñëè F 6 F1−α;k,n−k−1 , òî ãèïîòåçà H0 ïðèíèìàåòñÿ, è,
ñëåäîâàòåëüíî, ïîñòðîåííàÿ ëèíåéíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ ÿâëÿåòñÿ
ñòàòèñòè÷åñêè íåçíà÷èìîé, çäåñü F1−α;k,n−k−1 êâàíòèëü
óðîâíÿ 1−α ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Ôèøåðà ñ k è n−k−1 ñòåïåíÿìè
ñâîáîäû.
87
Ïåðåìåííàÿ y çàâèñèìàÿ è îçíà÷àåò ñèñòîëè÷åñêîå àðòåðèàëü-
íîå äàâëåíèå. Ïåðåìåííûå x1 è x2 íåçàâèñèìûå è îçíà÷àþò
âîçðàñò ïàöèåíòà â ãîäàõ è åãî âåñ â ôóíòàõ ñîîòâåòñòâåííî. Ïî-
ñòðîèì óðàâíåíèå ëèíåéíîé ðåãðåññèè âèäà:
y = β0 + β1 x 1 + β2 x 2 .
88
ëå Sej = β̂j /tβj , j = 0, . . . , k , R2 êîýôôèöèåíò äåòåðìèíà-
öèè, Seν ñòàíäàðòíàÿ îøèáêà äëÿ y , F çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè
F , df ÷èñëî ñòåïåíåé ñâîáîäû çíàìåíàòåëÿ (n − k − 1) äëÿ
ïðîâåðêè ãèïîòåçû H0 : β1 = . . . = βk = 0, SSresid ñóì-
ìà êâàäðàòîâ ðàçíîñòåé ìåæäó ïðîãíîçèðóåìûìè Pn çíà÷åíèÿìè
y è íàáëþäàåìûìè
Pn çíà÷åíèÿìè, ò. å. SSresid = i=1 (yi − ŷi ) ,
2
0,976847104 2,318211131
168,7645659 8
1813,916268 42,99282278
89
3.1.6. Ëèíåéíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ â R
Ðàññìîòðèì âûáîðêó èç ðàçäåëà 3.1.5., ñîñòîÿùóþ èç 11 íàáëþ-
äåíèé. Ïîñòðîèì óðàâíåíèå ëèíåéíîé ðåãðåññèè âèäà:
y = β0 + β1 x1 + β2 x2 .
Ââåäåì äàííûå:
y<-c(132,143,153,162,154,168,137,149,159,128,166)
x1<-c(52,59,67,73,64,74,54,61,65,46,72)
x2<-c(173,184,194,211,196,220,188,188,207,167,217)
res<-lm(y x1+x2)
summary(res)
Âûâîäèòñÿ ðåçóëüòàò:
Call:
lm(formula = y ∼ x1 + x2)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-3.4640 -1.1949 -0.4078 1.8511 2.6981
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 30.9941 11.9438 2.595 0.03186 *
x1 0.8614 0.2482 3.470 0.00844 **
x2 0.3349 0.1307 2.563 0.03351 *
-
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
90
ïî êîòîðûì ìîæíî ñäåëàòü âûâîä î çíà÷èìîñòè èëè íåçíà÷èìî-
ñòè êîýôôèöèåíòà.  ñëó÷àå, åñëè çíà÷åíèå p-value áîëüøå óðîâ-
íÿ çíà÷èìîñòè (ïî óìîë÷àíèþ áåðåòñÿ óðîâåíü 0.05), òî ïðèíè-
ìàåòñÿ ãèïîòåçà H0 : βi = 0 è äåëàåòñÿ âûâîä î íåçíà÷èìîñòè êî-
ýôôèöèåíòà.  ïðîòèâíîì ñëó÷àå, íóëåâàÿ ãèïîòåçà îòâåðãàåòñÿ,
è êîýôôèöèåíò ïðèçíàåòñÿ çíà÷èìûì.  ðàññìàòðèâàåìîì ïðè-
ìåðå âñå êîýôôèöèåíòû çíà÷èìû. Çíà÷åíèå Residual standard
error ýòî çíà÷åíèå S . Multiple R-squared ýòî çíà÷åíèå
R2 . Çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè F , âû÷èñëÿåìîå äëÿ ïðîâåðêè ãèïîòå-
çû H0 : β1 = . . . = βk = 0, ðàâíî 168.8.  ñëó÷àå ñïðàâåäëè-
âîñòè ýòîé ãèïîòåçû, ñòàòèñòèêà F ïîä÷èíÿåòñÿ ðàñïðåäåëåíèþ
Ôèøåðà ñ 2 ñòåïåíÿìè ñâîáîäû ÷èñëèòåëÿ è 8 ñòåïåíÿìè ñâîáîäû
çíàìåíàòåëÿ. Çíà÷åíèå p-value ðàâíî 2.874e-07, ÷òî ìåíüøå óðîâ-
íÿ çíà÷èìîñòè 0.05. Ñëåäîâàòåëüíî, ìîæíî ñäåëàòü âûâîä î òîì,
÷òî íóëåâóþ ãèïîòåçó ñëåäóåò îòâåðãíóòü è ïðèçíàòü ïîñòðîåí-
íîå óðàâíåíèå ëèíåéíîé ðåãðåññèè çíà÷èìûì â öåëîì.
Äëÿ íàãëÿäíîãî ïðåäñòàâëåíèÿ äàííûõ èñïîëüçóåì ôóíê-
öèþ pairs:
91
Ðèñ. 3.2. Ãðàôè÷åñêîå ïðåäñòàâëåíèå äàííûõ ðàçäåëà 3.1.6.
92
ëåé ñ êîëè÷åñòâåííûìè öåëî÷èñëåííûìè ïåðåìåííûìè.  ñëó÷àå
ïîðÿäêîâûõ ïåðåìåííûõ èíòåðïðåòàöèÿ îöåíîê êîýôôèöèåíòîâ
ïðè îáúÿñíÿþùèõ ïåðåìåííûõ çàòðóäíåíà: óâåëè÷åíèå íà îäíó
åäèíèöó ïîðÿäêîâîé ïåðåìåííîé îçíà÷àåò ïåðåõîä ê ñëåäóþùåé
ïî ðàíãó àëüòåðíàòèâå, îäíàêî äàëåêî íå âñåãäà ïåðåõîä îò ïåð-
âîé àëüòåðíàòèâû êî âòîðîé ÷èñëåííî ýêâèâàëåíòåí ïåðåõîäó îò
âòîðîé ê òðåòüåé. Åñëè æå çàâèñèìàÿ ïåðåìåííàÿ ÿâëÿåòñÿ íîìè-
íàëüíîé, òî ðåçóëüòàòû îöåíèâàíèÿ âîîáùå òåðÿþò ñìûñë â ñèëó
ïðîèçâîëüíîñòè íóìåðàöèè àëüòåðíàòèâ. Òàêèì îáðàçîì, ñòàí-
äàðòíàÿ ðåãðåññèîííàÿ ñõåìà íóæäàåòñÿ â êîððåêöèè.
93
ãäå ñëó÷àéíûå êîìïîíåíòû εi , i = 1, . . . , n âçàèìíî íåçàâèñèìû
è îäèíàêîâî ðàñïðåäåëåíû ñ íóëåâûì ìàòåìàòè÷åñêèì îæèäàíè-
åì è äèñïåðñèåé σ 2 . Ïóñòü F (·) ôóíêöèÿ ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ íîð-
ìèðîâàííîé ñëó÷àéíîé âåëè÷èíû εi /σ . Ïåðåìåííàÿ yi∗ ÿâëÿåòñÿ
íåíàáëþäàåìîé (ëàòåíòíîé), à ðåøåíèå, ñîîòâåòñòâóþùåå çíà÷å-
íèþ yi = 1, ïðèíèìàåòñÿ òîãäà, êîãäà yi∗ ïðåâîñõîäèò íåêîòîðîå
ïîðîãîâîå çíà÷åíèå. Áåç îãðàíè÷åíèÿ îáùíîñòè, åñëè êîíñòàíòà
âêëþ÷åíà â ÷èñëî íåçàâèñèìûõ ïåðåìåííûõ ìîäåëè, ìîæíî ñ÷è-
òàòü ýòî ïîðîãîâîå çíà÷åíèå ðàâíûì íóëþ. Âåëè÷èíó yi∗ ìîæíî
òàêæå èíòåðïðåòèðîâàòü êàê ðàçíîñòü ïîëåçíîñòåé àëüòåðíàòè-
âû 1 è àëüòåðíàòèâû 0.
Òàêèì îáðàçîì, ïîëó÷àåì
(
1, åñëè yi∗ > 0,
yi = (3.2.3)
0, åñëè yi∗ < 0.
94
Èñïîëüçîâàíèå ôóíêöèè ñòàíäàðòíîãî íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðå-
äåëåíèÿ ïðåäñòàâëÿåòñÿ åñòåñòâåííûì â ðàìêàõ ïðèâåäåííîé âû-
øå èíòåðïðåòàöèè. Ïðèìåíåíèå ôóíêöèè ëîãèñòè÷åñêîãî ðàñïðå-
äåëåíèÿ îáúÿñíÿåòñÿ ïðîñòîòîé ÷èñëåííîé ðåàëèçàöèè ïðîöåäó-
ðû îöåíèâàíèÿ ïàðàìåòðîâ. Ó èññëåäîâàòåëÿ ìîæåò âîçíèêíóòü
âîïðîñ î òîì, êàêóþ èç ìîäåëåé (ïðîáèò èëè ëîãèò) èñïîëüçî-
âàòü â êîíêðåòíîì ñëó÷àå. Òî÷íîãî îòâåòà íà ýòîò âîïðîñ íåò, íî
ìîæíî äàòü íåêîòîðûå ðåêîìåíäàöèè. Íàïðèìåð, ìîæíî âûáðàòü
òó ìîäåëü, äëÿ êîòîðîé ôóíêöèÿ ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ èìååò áîëüøåå
çíà÷åíèå. Òàêæå ìîæíî îòìåòèòü, ÷òî äëÿ çíà÷åíèé u, áëèç-
êèõ ïî ìîäóëþ ê íóëþ (â ÷àñòíîñòè, ïðè u ∈ −[1.2; 1.2]), ôóíê-
öèè Φ(u) è Λ(u) âåäóò ñåáÿ ïðèìåðíî îäèíàêîâî, â òî æå âðåìÿ
¾õâîñòû¿ ëîãèñòè÷åñêîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ çíà÷èòåëüíî ¾òÿæåëåå¿
¾õâîñòîâ¿ íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ. Ïðàêòè÷åñêèé îïûò ïî-
êàçûâàåò, ÷òî äëÿ âûáîðîê ñ íåáîëüøèì ðàçáðîñîì íåçàâèñèìûõ
ïåðåìåííûõ è ïðè îòñóòñòâèè ñóùåñòâåííîãî ïðåîáëàäàíèÿ îä-
íîé àëüòåðíàòèâû íàä äðóãîé âûâîäû, ïîëó÷àåìûå ñ ïîìîùüþ
ïðîáèò è ëîãèò ìîäåëåé, áóäóò, êàê ïðàâèëî, ñîâïàäàòü.
Èñõîäÿ èç ïðåäïîëîæåíèÿ (3.2.1), ôóíêöèÿ F (x) íåëèíåéíà
ïî ïàðàìåòðàì β , è èíòåðïðåòàöèÿ ýòèõ ïàðàìåòðîâ îòëè÷àåòñÿ
îò èíòåðïðåòàöèè ïîäîáíûõ êîýôôèöèåíòîâ â ëèíåéíîé ðåãðåñ-
ñèîííîé ìîäåëè.
eδu
Λδ (u) = . (3.2.6)
1 + eδu
Çíà÷åíèå ïàðàìåòðà δ ìîæåò áûòü âûáðàíî òàêèì îáðàçîì, ÷òî-
áû çíà÷åíèÿ ôóíêöèè (3.2.6) áûëè áû äîñòàòî÷íî áëèçêèìè ê
çíà÷åíèÿì ôóíêöèè ñòàíäàðòíîãî íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
íà áîëüøîé ÷àñòè îáëàñòè îïðåäåëåíèÿ. Ðàññìîòðèì, íàïðèìåð,
δ = 1.6.  òàáëèöå 3.3 ìîæíî íàéòè çíà÷åíèÿ ôóíêöèé Φ(u) è
95
Λ1.6 (u) äëÿ ðàçëè÷íûõ u. Èç íåå âèäíî, ÷òî ôóíêöèè ðàñïðåäå-
ëåíèÿ ¾î÷åíü áëèçêè¿ îêîëî 0, íî ëîãèñòè÷åñêîå ðàñïðåäåëåíèå
èìååò áîëåå òÿæåëûå ¾õâîñòû¿.
96
3.2.3. Îöåíèâàíèå ïàðàìåòðîâ â ëîãèò è ïðîáèò ìîäåëÿõ
Äëÿ íàõîæäåíèÿ îöåíîê ïàðàìåòðîâ β îáû÷íî èñïîëüçóþò ìå-
òîä ìàêñèìàëüíîãî ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ, ïðåäïîëàãàÿ, ÷òî íàáëþäå-
íèÿ y1 , . . . , yn íåçàâèñèìû. Òàê êàê yi ìîæåò ïðèíèìàòü çíà÷åíèÿ
0 èëè 1, òî ôóíêöèÿ ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ ïðèìåò ñëåäóþùèé âèä:
Y Y
L(y1 , . . . , yn ) = (1 − F (β T xi )) F (β T xi ). (3.2.8)
i:yi =0 i:yi =1
97
Çàìåòèì òàêæå, ÷òî ãåññèàí â ýòîì ñëó÷àå îòðèöàòåëüíî îïðåäå-
ëåí [38], ò. å. ëîãàðèôìè÷åñêàÿ ôóíêöèÿ ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ âîãíóòà.
Äëÿ ïðîáèò ìîäåëè ëîãàðèôìè÷åñêóþ ôóíêöèþ ïðàâäîïî-
äîáèÿ (3.2.9) ìîæíî çàïèñàòü â ñëåäóþùåì âèäå:
X X
ln L = ln(1 − Φ(β T xi )) + ln(Φ(β T xi )). (3.2.13)
i:yi =0 i:yi =1
∂ ln L X −ϕ(β T xi ) X ϕ(β T xi )
= T
xi + xi ,
∂β i:y =0
1 − Φ(β xi ) i:y =1
Φ(β T xi )
i i
98
ìàêñèìàëüíîãî ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ ïàðàìåòðà β , êîòîðûé ÿâëÿåòñÿ
(k + 1)-ìåðíûì âåêòîðîì. Îáùàÿ ñõåìà ÷èñëåííûõ ìåòîäîâ äëÿ
íàõîæäåíèÿ îöåíêè ìàêñèìàëüíîãî ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ èìååò ñëåäó-
þùèé âèä. Ñíà÷àëà âûáèðàåì íà÷àëüíóþ òî÷êó β (0) , íà ñëåäóþ-
ùåé èòåðàöèè ïåðåõîäèì â òî÷êó β (1) ïî ñëåäóþùåìó ïðàâèëó:
β (1) = β (0) + µ0 ,
99
Ïî ñâîéñòâó àñèìïòîòè÷åñêîé íîðìàëüíîñòè è àñèìïòîòè-
÷åñêîé ýôôåêòèâíîñòè îöåíêè ìàêñèìàëüíîãî ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ β̂
êîâàðèàöèîííàÿ ìàòðèöà V (β̂) ðàâíà:
2 −1
∂ ln L
V (β̂) ≈ I −1
(β) = −E , (3.2.16)
∂β∂β T
ò. å. êîâàðèàöèîííàÿ ìàòðèöà ðàâíà îáðàòíîé èíôîðìàöèîííîé
ìàòðèöå (îæèäàåìîå çíà÷åíèå ãåññèàíà, âçÿòîå ñ ïðîòèâîïîëîæ-
íûì çíàêîì).
Âûðàæåíèå â ïðàâîé ÷àñòè (3.2.16) âû÷èñëÿåòñÿ â òî÷êå β ,
íî, ïîñêîëüêó ìû çíàåì òîëüêî îöåíêó β̂ ïàðàìåòðà β , òî ìîæåì
íàéòè òîëüêî îöåíêó äëÿ àñèìïòîòè÷åñêîé êîâàðèàöèîííîé ìàò-
ðèöû, ò. å. ïðîèçâîäíûå è èíòåãðàëû âû÷èñëÿþòñÿ ïðè β = β̂ .
Ìîæíî èñïîëüçîâàòü ñëåäóþùèå òðè ñïîñîáà íàõîæäåíèÿ
îöåíêè V̂ (β̂) àñèìïòîòè÷åñêîé êîâàðèàöèîííîé ìàòðèöû V (β̂)
[46, 52]:
1. Îöåíêà ÷àñòî èñïîëüçóåìàÿ âìåñòå ñ ìåòîäîì scoring, ò. ê.
ýòîò ÷èñëåííûé ìåòîä íà êàæäîé èòåðàöèè âû÷èñëÿåò èí-
ôîðìàöèîííóþ ìàòðèöó:
2 −1
∂ ln L
V̂1 (β̂) = −E . (3.2.17)
∂ β̂∂ β̂ T
2. Îöåíêà, ÷àùå âñåãî èñïîëüçóåìàÿ âìåñòå ñ ÷èñëåííûì ìå-
òîäîì Íüþòîíà:
n
!−1
X ∂ 2 ln Li
V̂2 (β̂) = − . (3.2.18)
T
i=1 ∂ β̂∂ β̂
3. Îöåíêà
n
!−1
X
V̂3 (β̂) = gi2 xi xTi , (3.2.19)
i=1
100
âñå íàáëþäåíèÿ ñãðóïïèðîâàíû òàêèì îáðàçîì, ÷òî âíóòðè êàæ-
äîé ãðóïïû çíà÷åíèÿ ôàêòîðîâ ìåíÿþòñÿ ìàëî. Òîãäà ìîæíî
çàìåíèòü ðàçëè÷íûå íàáîðû ôàêòîðîâ âíóòðè êàæäîé ãðóïïû
íåêîòîðûìè ñðåäíèìè çíà÷åíèÿìè è, ñîîòâåòñòâåííî, âñå íàáëþ-
äåíèÿ âíóòðè ãðóïïû ðàññìàòðèâàòü êàê íàáëþäåíèÿ, ñîîòâåò-
ñòâóþùèå âûáðàííûì ñðåäíèì çíà÷åíèÿì ôàêòîðîâ.  îáîèõ
ñëó÷àÿõ ïîÿâëÿåòñÿ âîçìîæíîñòü îöåíèòü ýìïèðè÷åñêóþ âåðî-
ÿòíîñòü ïîÿâëåíèÿ åäèíè÷íîãî çíà÷åíèÿ äëÿ ñîîòâåòñòâóþùå-
ãî íàáîðà ôàêòîðîâ ïóñòü ýòî áóäåò îöåíêà p̂i , ïîëó÷àåìàÿ
êàê îòíîñèòåëüíàÿ ÷àñòîòà (äîëÿ) íàáëþäåíèé, ðàâíûõ åäèíèöå.
Òîãäà ìîæíî ïðèìåíèòü òàê íàçûâàåìîå ëîãèò-ïðåîáðàçîâàíèå
zi = ln(p̂i /(1 − p̂i )), ïîñëå êîòîðîãî, ó÷èòûâàÿ ìîäåëü (3.2.1) ñ
ëîãèñòè÷åñêîé ôóíêöèåé ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ (3.2.5), ïîëó÷àåì íîâóþ
ìîäåëü íàáëþäåíèé:
zi = β T xi + ζi , (3.2.20)
ãäå îòíîñèòåëüíî ñëó÷àéíîé êîìïîíåíòû ζi ñäåëàåì òðàäèöèîí-
íûå ïðåäïîëîæåíèÿ î âçàèìíîé íåçàâèñèìîñòè íàáëþäåíèé.
Ìîäåëü (3.2.20) ìîæíî àíàëèçèðîâàòü êàê ìîäåëü íàáëþäå-
íèé ìíîæåñòâåííîé ðåãðåññèè, è äëÿ îöåíèâàíèÿ êîýôôèöèåí-
òîâ ìîäåëè ïðèìåíèòü ìåòîä íàèìåíüøèõ êâàäðàòîâ. Òðóäíîñòè
ïðèìåíåíèÿ ìåòîäà íàèìåíüøèõ êâàäðàòîâ ê ìîäåëè (3.2.20) ñâÿ-
çàíû ñ òåì, ÷òî äèñïåðñèè íàáëþäåíèé íå ïîñòîÿííû, è âûðàæå-
íèÿ äëÿ äèñïåðñèé ñëó÷àéíûõ êîìïîíåíò íîñÿò ïðèáëèæåííûé
õàðàêòåð. Àíàëîãè÷íûé ïîäõîä âîçìîæåí è äëÿ ñëó÷àÿ ïðîáèò
ìîäåëè, ãäå âìåñòî ëîãèò-ïðåîáðàçîâàíèÿ ïðèìåíÿþò îáðàòíóþ
ôóíêöèþ ê ôóíêöèè ñòàíäàðòíîãî íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ.
Âîçíèêàþùèå ïðîáëåìû àíàëîãè÷íû âûøå ðàññìîòðåííûì.
Ñðàâíèâàÿ äâà ïîäõîäà ê îöåíêå íåèçâåñòíûõ ïàðàìåòðîâ
ìîäåëè (3.2.1), ìîæíî ñîãëàñèòüñÿ ñ òåì, ÷òî ìåòîä ìàêñèìàëü-
íîãî ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ âûãëÿäèò ïðåäïî÷òèòåëüíåå. Êàêèì áû ñïî-
ñîáîì íè îöåíèâàëèñü ïàðàìåòðû ìîäåëè (3.2.1), î êà÷åñòâå ïî-
ñòðîåííîé ìîäåëè ìîæíî ñóäèòü ïî åå ñïîñîáíîñòè ïðàâèëüíî
ïðîãíîçèðîâàòü èìåþùèåñÿ íàáëþäåíèÿ. Ïîäñòàâëÿÿ â ìîäåëü
îöåíêó β̂ è çíà÷åíèÿ ôàêòîðîâ xi , íàõîäèì îöåíêó âåðîÿòíîñòè
ïîÿâëåíèÿ åäèíèöû: P̂{yi = 1} = F (β̂ T x). Åñëè íàáëþäåíèå îêà-
çàëîñü ðàâíûì åäèíèöå, òî äëÿ ïðàâèëüíîãî ïðîãíîçà íàéäåííàÿ
âåðîÿòíîñòü äîëæíà ïðèíèìàòü çíà÷åíèå, áîëüøåå 0.5. Ïåðåáè-
ðàÿ èìåþùèåñÿ íàáëþäåíèÿ è îïðåäåëÿÿ ñîîòâåòñòâèå íàáëþäå-
íèÿ âû÷èñëåííîé âåðîÿòíîñòè, ìîæíî îöåíèòü êà÷åñòâî ïîñòðî-
åííîé ìîäåëè.
101
3.2.5. Ïðîâåðêà ãèïîòåç î çíà÷èìîñòè ïàðàìåòðîâ ëîãèò
è ïðîáèò ìîäåëåé áèíàðíîãî âûáîðà
Äëÿ ëîãèò è ïðîáèò ìîäåëåé ïðîâåðêà ãèïîòåç î íàëè÷èè îãðàíè-
÷åíèé íà êîýôôèöèåíòû, â ÷àñòíîñòè, ãèïîòåç î çíà÷èìîñòè îä-
íîãî èëè ãðóïïû êîýôôèöèåíòîâ, ìîæåò ïðîâîäèòüñÿ ñ ïîìîùüþ
ëþáîãî èç òðåõ êðèòåðèåâ Âàëüäà, îòíîøåíèÿ ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ,
ìíîæèòåëåé Ëàãðàíæà [45, 46].
Ðàññìîòðèì íóëåâóþ ãèïîòåçó â âèäå ñèñòåìû óðàâíåíèé:
H0 : Qβ = r, (3.2.21)
ãäå β = (β0 , β1 , . . . , βk ) , Q ìàòðèöà êîíñòàíò, r âåêòîð êîí-
T
102
êîòîðàÿ â ñëó÷àå ñïðàâåäëèâîñòè ãèïîòåçû H0 àñèìïòîòè÷åñêè
ïîä÷èíÿåòñÿ ñòàíäàðòíîìó íîðìàëüíîìó ðàñïðåäåëåíèþ, åñëè
îöåíêè ïàðàìåòðîâ â ìîäåëè ïðîèçâîäÿòñÿ ìåòîäîì ìàêñèìàëü-
íîãî ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ [52].
Àëãîðèòì êðèòåðèÿ
1. Âûäâèãàåì íóëåâóþ ãèïîòåçó H0 : βi = β ∗ . Ñôîðìóëèðóåì
àëüòåðíàòèâíóþ ãèïîòåçó: H1 : βi 6= β ∗ .
2. Çàäàåì óðîâåíü çíà÷èìîñòè α.
3. Âû÷èñëÿåì çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè z ïî ôîðìóëå (3.2.22).
4. Íàõîäèì êðèòè÷åñêóþ îáëàñòü ýòî îáúåäèíåíèå èíòåðâà-
ëîâ (−∞; −u1− α2 ) ∪ (u1− α2 ; ∞), ãäå u1− α2 êâàíòèëü ñòàí-
äàðòíîãî íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ óðîâíÿ 1 − α2 .
5. Åñëè çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè (3.2.22) ïîïàäåò â êðèòè÷åñêóþ
îáëàñòü, òî ãèïîòåçà H0 îòâåðãàåòñÿ, â ïðîòèâíîì ñëó÷àå
íåò îñíîâàíèé åå îòâåðãíóòü ïðè óðîâíå çíà÷èìîñòè α.
103
Ïðèìåð 3.2.1. Äëÿ ïðîáèò ìîäåëè P{y = 1} = Φ(β 0 + β1 x 1 +
+β2 x2 ) ïðîâåðèì ãèïîòåçó H0 : β1 = β ∗ ïðè àëüòåðíàòèâíîé ãè-
ïîòåçå H1 : β1 6= β ∗ ïðè çàäàííîì óðîâíå çíà÷èìîñòè α. Íàéäåì
âûðàæåíèå äëÿ W èç (3.2.23) äëÿ ýòîãî ñëó÷àÿ. Âûðàæåíèå Qβ̂−r
ïðèìåò ñëåäóþùèé âèä:
β̂0
0 1 0 β̂1 − β ∗ = β̂1 − β ∗ .
β̂2
104
ãäå ìàòðèöà Qβ̂ − r è (QV̂ (β̂)QT )−1 ïðèîáðåòàþò âèä:
105
3.2.7. Êðèòåðèé îòíîøåíèÿ ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ
×àñòî äëÿ ïðîâåðêè àäåêâàòíîñòè ïðîáèò è ëîãèò ìîäåëåé áèíàð-
íûõ ðåãðåññèé èñïîëüçóþò êðèòåðèè, îñíîâàííûå íà ñðàâíåíèè
çíà÷åíèé ôóíêöèè ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ â ñëó÷àå, êîãäà ìàêñèìèçàöèÿ
ïðîâîäèòñÿ ïî âñåì íåèçâåñòíûì ïàðàìåòðàì, è ïðè óñëîâèè, ÷òî
Qβ = r.
Ïóñòü ln L1 ìàêñèìàëüíîå çíà÷åíèå ëîãàðèôìè÷åñêîé
ôóíêöèè ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ (3.2.9) ïðè óñëîâèè, ÷òî ìàêñèìèçàöèÿ
ïðîèçâîäèòñÿ ïî ïàðàìåòðó β áåç îãðàíè÷åíèé íà ýòîò ïàðà-
ìåòð; ln L0 ìàêñèìàëüíîå çíà÷åíèå ëîãàðèôìè÷åñêîé ôóíêöèè
ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ (3.2.9) ïðè óñëîâèè, ÷òî Qβ = r. Î÷åâèäíî, ÷òî
ln L1 > ln L0 . ×åì áîëüøå ðàçíîñòü ìåæäó çíà÷åíèÿìè ôóíêöèé,
òåì áîëåå îïðàâäàíî èñïîëüçîâàíèå ðåãðåññèîííîé ïðîáèò èëè
ëîãèò ìîäåëè. Ñòàòèñòèêà îòíîøåíèÿ ïðàâäîïîäîáèÿ (likelihood
ratio) âûãëÿäèò ñëåäóþùèì îáðàçîì:
LR = 2(ln L1 − ln L0 ), (3.2.25)
106
Ïîäðîáíîå îïèñàíèå êðèòåðèÿ ìíîæèòåëåé Ëàãðàíæà äëÿ
ïðîâåðêè ãèïîòåçû H0 : Qβ = r ìîæíî íàéòè â [45, 46, 52].
n
ãäå ȳ = 1
yi .
P
n
i=1
Âçâåøåííàÿ ñóììà êâàäðàòîâ W SSR äëÿ ìîäåëåé áèíàð-
íîé ðåãðåññèè ìîæåò áûòü âû÷èñëåíà ïî ôîðìóëå
n
X (yi − F̂i )2
W SSR = . (3.2.28)
i=1 F̂i (1 − F̂i )
107
Êâàäðàòè÷íûé êîýôôèöèåíò êîððåëÿöèè SCC âû÷èñëÿåòñÿ
ïî ôîðìóëå
n 2
P
(yi − ȳ)F̂i
i=1
SCC = P n n
P , (3.2.29)
(yi − ȳ)2 (F̂i − F̄ )2
i=1 i=1
Pn
ãäå F̄ = i=1 F̂i /n.  ñëó÷àå ëèíåéíîé ðåãðåññèè êîýôôèöèåí-
òû (3.2.27) è (3.2.29) ñîâïàäàþò, íî ýòî íå ÿâëÿåòñÿ âåðíûì äëÿ
ñëó÷àÿ áèíàðíîé ðåãðåññèè.
Ñóùåñòâóåò åùå îäíà ìåðà àäåêâàòíîñòè ìîäåëåé áèíàðíîé
ðåãðåññèè [39, 50]:
n
1 X
2
RBL = yi F̂i + (1 − yi )(1 − F̂i ) , (3.2.30)
n i=1
ln L(β̂)
LRI = 1 − , (3.2.31)
ln L0
108
Òàáë. 3.4. Ðåçóëüòàòû ïðîãíîçèðîâàíèÿ
yi = 1 271 14 285
yi = 0 17 58 75
288 72 360
109
mydata <- read.csv("http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/data/
binary.csv")
head(mydata)
Ïîëó÷àåì âûâîä:
summary(mydata)
Ïîëó÷àåì âûâîä:
sapply(mydata, sd)
Ïîëó÷àåì âûâîä:
110
gpa + rank, èìÿ ìàññèâà äàííûõ data = mydata, à òàêæå òèï
ðåãðåññèè family = binomial("logit"):
summary(mylogit)
Call:
glm(formula = admit ∼ gre + gpa + rank, family =
binomial("logit"), data = mydata)
Deviance Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-1.6268 -0.8662 -0.6388 1.1490 2.0790
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) -3.989979 1.139951 -3.500 0.000465 ***
gre 0.002264 0.001094 2.070 0.038465 *
gpa 0.804038 0.331819 2.423 0.015388 *
rank[T.2] -0.675443 0.316490 -2.134 0.032829 *
rank[T.3] -1.340204 0.345306 -3.881 0.000104 ***
rank[T.4] -1.551464 0.417832 -3.713 0.000205 ***
- Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' '
1
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
111
confint(mylogit)
Ïîëó÷àåì âûâîä:
2.5 % 97.5 %
(Intercept) -6.271620 -1.79255
gre 0.000138 0.00444
gpa 0.160296 1.46414
rank2 -1.300889 -0.05675
rank3 -2.027671 -0.67037
rank4 -2.400027 -0.75354
install.packages("aod")
library(aod)
wald.test(b = coef(mylogit), Sigma = vcov(mylogit), Terms =
1:6)
Wald test:
Chi-squared test:
X2 = 73.4, df = 6, P(> X2) = 8.2e-14
112
Çíà÷åíèå ñòàòèñòèêè Âàëüäà ðàâíî 73.4. Ïî êðèòåðèþ Âàëüäà
ïîñòðîåííîå óðàâíåíèå ëîãèñòè÷åñêîé ðåãðåññèè çíà÷èìî â
öåëîì, ïîñêîëüêó çíà÷åíèå p-value=8.2e-14, ÷òî çíà÷èòåëüíî
ìåíüøå óðîâíÿ çíà÷èìîñòè 0.05. Çàìåòèì, ÷òî â êà÷åñòâå
ïàðàìåòðà b ìû áåðåì îöåíêè êîýôôèöèåíòîâ ëîãèñòè÷åñêîé
ðåãðåññèè, ïîëó÷åííûå â õîäå ïîñòðîåíèÿ ëîãèñòè÷åñêîé ðåãðåñ-
ñèè coef(mylogit), à â êà÷åñòâå êîâàðèàöèîííîé ìàòðèöû åå
îöåíêó vcov(mylogit).  êà÷åñòâå ïàðàìåòðà Terms âûáèðàþòñÿ
îáúÿñíÿþùèå ïåðåìåííûå ìîäåëè, â äàííîì ñëó÷àå ýòî
ïåðåìåííûå 16, ò. å. âñå âîçìîæíûå îáúÿñíÿþùèå ïåðåìåííûå
ìîäåëè (âêëþ÷àÿ âîçìîæíûå çíà÷åíèÿ ðàíãîâ). Äëÿ ïîñòðîåíèÿ
ãðàôèêà çàâèñèìîñòåé ìåæäó ïåðåìåííîé admit è gre, à òàêæå
ìåæäó admit è gpa èñïîëüçóåì ôóíêöèþ plot:
plot(mydata$admit,mydata$gre)
plot(mydata$admit,mydata$gpa)
ðàçäåëà 3.2.9.
113
Àíàëîãè÷íûì îáðàçîì ìîæíî ïîñòðîèòü ìîäåëü ïðîáèò-
ðåãðåññèè.
summary(myprobit)
Call:
glm(formula = admit ∼ gre + gpa + rank, family =
binomial("probit"), data = mydata)
Deviance Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-1.6163 -0.8710 -0.6389 1.1560 2.1035
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) -2.386836 0.673946 -3.542 0.000398 ***
gre 0.001376 0.000650 2.116 0.034329 *
gpa 0.477730 0.197197 2.423 0.015410 *
rank[T.2] -0.415399 0.194977 -2.131 0.033130 *
rank[T.3] -0.812138 0.208358 -3.898 9.71e-05 ***
rank[T.4] -0.935899 0.245272 -3.816 0.000136 ***
-
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
114
Ðèñ. 3.4. Ãðàôè÷åñêîå ïðåäñòàâëåíèå äàííûõ äëÿ ïðèìåðà
ðàçäåëà 3.2.9.
confint(myprobit)
Ïîëó÷àåì âûâîä:
2.5 % 97.5 %
(Intercept) -3.7201050682 -1.076327713
gre 0.0001104101 0.002655157
gpa 0.0960654793 0.862610221
rank[T.2] -0.7992113929 -0.032995019
rank[T.3] -1.2230955861 -0.405008112
rank[T.4] -1.4234218227 -0.459538829
115
library(aod)
wald.test(b = coef(myprobit), Sigma = vcov(myprobit), Terms =
1:6)
Wald test:
Chi-squared test:
X2 = 83.6, df = 6, P(> X2) = 6.7e-16
116
Çàôèêñèðóåì ïàðàìåòð τ ∈ (0, 1) è ðàññìîòðèì íàáîð β êàê
ôóíêöèþ ýòîãî ïàðàìåòðà: β(τ ). Äëÿ çàäàííîãî τ íàáîð β̂(τ ),
ÿâëÿþùèéñÿ ðåøåíèåì ñëåäóþùåé îïòèìèçàöèîííîé çàäà÷è:
X X
min τ |yi − (Xβ)i | + (1 − τ ) |yi − (Xβ)i | , (3.3.2)
β(τ )
i: i:
yi ≥(Xβ)i yi <(Xβ)i
1
min τ T s+ + (1 − τ ) T s−
β(τ )
1 (3.3.3)
y = Xβ(τ ) + s+ − s− ,
(3.3.4)
β(τ ) ∈ Rk+1 , s+ , s− ∈ Rn+ ,
ãäå s+ = (s+ + T − −
1 , . . . , sn ) , s = (s1 , . . . , sn ) ,
− T
1
= (1, . . . , 1)T ∈ Rn .
Ðåøåíèå óêàçàííîé çàäà÷è ìîæåò áûòü íàéäåíî, íàïðèìåð,
ïðè ïîìîùè ñèìïëåêñ-ìåòîäà [12]. Äâîéñòâåííàÿ çàäà÷à äëÿ çà-
äà÷è (3.3.3)(3.3.4) çàïèñûâàåòñÿ â ñëåäóþùåì âèäå:
max y T w (3.3.5)
w
T
X w = 0,
1
(τ − 1) ≤ w ≤ τ , 1 (3.3.6)
117
ãäå w = (w1 , . . . , wn )T íàáîð äâîéñòâåííûõ ïåðåìåííûõ.
Íåòðóäíî óáåäèòüñÿ â òîì, ÷òî îáå çàäà÷è (3.3.3)(3.3.4) è (3.3.5)
(3.3.6) èìåþò äîïóñòèìûå ðåøåíèÿ, à ñëåäîâàòåëüíî, â ñèëó òåî-
ðåìû äâîéñòâåííîñòè èç òåîðèè ëèíåéíîãî ïðîãðàììèðîâàíèÿ,
èìåþò è îïòèìàëüíûå ðåøåíèÿ. Òàêèì îáðàçîì, ìû âñåãäà ìî-
æåì ãàðàíòèðîâàòü ñóùåñòâîâàíèå íàáîðà β̂(τ ). Ñòîèò îòìåòèòü,
÷òî èíîãäà óäîáíåå ðåøàòü äâîéñòâåííóþ çàäà÷ó. Â ýòîì ñëó-
÷àå, çíàÿ îïòèìàëüíîå ðåøåíèå äâîéñòâåííîé çàäà÷è, îïòèìàëü-
íîå ðåøåíèå èñõîäíîé çàäà÷è (3.3.3)(3.3.4) ìîæåò áûòü íàéäåíî
ñ èñïîëüçîâàíèåì òåîðåì ðàâíîâåñèÿ.
Ïîñëå íàõîæäåíèÿ êîýôôèöèåíòîâ β̂(τ ) ìîæíî ðàññìîòðåòü
ôóíêöèþ ŷ(x, τ ) = β̂0 (τ ) + β̂1 (τ )x1 + . . . + β̂k (τ )xk , êîòîðóþ íàçû-
âàþò ëèíåéíîé êâàíòèëüíîé ðåãðåññèåé.  ÷àñòíîñòè, ôóíêöèÿ
ŷ(x, 12 ) = β̂0 ( 12 ) + β̂1 ( 12 )x1 + . . . + β̂k ( 12 )xk íàçûâàåòñÿ ëèíåéíîé
ìåäèàííîé ðåãðåññèåé.
Êâàíòèëüíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ îáëàäàåò ðÿäîì ïðåèìóùåñòâ ïî
ñðàâíåíèþ ñ òðàäèöèîííîé ìíîæåñòâåííîé ðåãðåññèåé ïî ìåòî-
äó íàèìåíüøèõ êâàäðàòîâ. Íàäî èìåòü â âèäó, ÷òî ìåòîä íàè-
ìåíüøèõ êâàäðàòîâ î÷åíü ÷óâñòâèòåëåí ê íàðóøåíèþ îñíîâíûõ
ïðåäïîëîæåíèé ðåãðåññèîííîãî àíàëèçà, ñôîðìóëèðîâàííûõ âû-
øå â ðàçäåëå 3.1.1.. Îñîáåííî âàæíî âûïîëíåíèå òðåáîâàíèÿ îäè-
íàêîâîé ðàñïðåäåëåííîñòè ñëó÷àéíûõ êîìïîíåíò, â ÷àñòíîñòè
îäèíàêîâîñòè äèñïåðñèé. Íàðóøåíèå ýòîãî óñëîâèÿ ñèëüíî ñêà-
çûâàåòñÿ íà êà÷åñòâå îöåíîê ìåòîäà íàèìåíüøèõ êâàäðàòîâ. Òåì
áîëåå ñèëüíî âëèÿþò òàê íàçûâàåìûå ¾àíîìàëüíûå¿ íàáëþäå-
íèÿ, äðóãèìè ñëîâàìè ¾âûáðîñû¿. Îäèíî÷íûé âûáðîñ ìîæåò
äî íåóçíàâàåìîñòè èñêàçèòü ìíîæåñòâåííóþ ðåãðåññèþ ïî ìåòî-
äó íàèìåíüøèõ êâàäðàòîâ. Êâàíòèëüíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ â ýòîì ñìûñ-
ëå îáëàäàåò íåñîìíåííûìè ïðåèìóùåñòâàìè, îíà çíà÷èòåëüíî
óñòîé÷èâåå ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê ¾àíîìàëüíûì¿ íàáëþäåíèÿì. Îäè-
íî÷íûå ¾âûáðîñû¿ â íàáëþäåíèÿõ íå ìîãóò ñóùåñòâåííî ïîâëè-
ÿòü íà êâàíòèëüíóþ ðåãðåññèþ.  ìíîãî÷èñëåííûõ ìàøèííûõ
ýêñïåðèìåíòàõ êâàíòèëüíàÿ ðåãðåññèÿ îêàçàëàñü çàìåòíî íàäåæ-
íåå ïî ñðàâíåíèþ ñ ðåãðåññèåé ïî ìåòîäó íàèìåíüøèõ êâàäðàòîâ.
 ðåàëüíûõ äàííûõ ïî÷òè âñåãäà èçìåðåíèÿ íå ÿâëÿþòñÿ ðàâíî-
òî÷íûìè, à çà÷àñòóþ èìåþòñÿ îäèíî÷íûå ¾âûáðîñû¿.  ñâÿçè ñ
ýòèì ïðèìåíåíèå êâàíòèëüíîé ðåãðåññèè ïðåäñòàâëÿåòñÿ î÷åíü
ïîëåçíûì.
Öåëåñîîáðàçíî îäíîâðåìåííî ïðèìåíÿòü îáà ìåòîäà. Åñëè
ïîñòðîåííûå çàâèñèìîñòè îêàçûâàþòñÿ áëèçêèìè, òî èõ íàäåæ-
118
íîñòü è çíà÷èìîñòü âîçðàñòàþò. Åñëè æå èìåþòñÿ ñóùåñòâåííûå
ðàçëè÷èÿ, òî ýòî ãîâîðèò î íåîáõîäèìîñòè äîïîëíèòåëüíîãî àíà-
ëèçà äîñòîâåðíîñòè ñàìèõ íàáëþäåíèé.
install.packages("quantreg")
library(quantreg)
data(engel)
119
Ðèñ. 3.5. Îêíî íàäñòðîéêè Ïîèñê ðåøåíèÿ
Coefficients:
coefficients lower bd upper bd
(Intercept) 79.28362 32.73534 102.35297
income 0.60885 0.56734 0.67405
120
 òàáëèöå ñîäåðæàòñÿ îöåíêè êîýôôèöèåíòîâ óðàâíåíèÿ
êâàíòèëüíîé ðåãðåññèè, à òàêæå ãðàíèöû äîâåðèòåëüíûõ
èíòåðâàëîâ äëÿ êîýôôèöèåíòîâ óðàâíåíèÿ.
Äëÿ âèçóàëèçàöèè ðåçóëüòàòîâ èñïîëüçóåì ôóíêöèþ plot,
ïðåäâàðèòåëüíî ïîñòðîèì óðàâíåíèÿ êâàíòèëüíîé ðåãðåññèè
äëÿ çíà÷åíèé τ îò 0.1 äî 0.9 ñ øàãîì 0.1:
3.4. Ðèäæ-ðåãðåññèÿ
121
ïîëüçîâàíèè ìåòîäà íàèìåíüøèõ êâàäðàòîâ äåëàåòñÿ ïðåäïîëî-
æåíèå, ÷òî îïðåäåëèòåëü |X T X| =6 0, ãäå X ìàòðèöà íàáëþäà-
åìûõ îáúÿñíÿþùèõ ïåðåìåííûõ. Ýòî ïðåäïîëîæåíèå îçíà÷àåò,
÷òî ñòîëáöû ìàòðèöû X ëèíåéíî íåçàâèñèìû.
 ñëó÷àå, êîãäà |X T X| = 0, ãîâîðÿò î ïðîáëåìå ìóëüòèêîë-
ëèíåàðíîñòè, è ïðèìåíåíèå ìåòîäà íàèìåíüøèõ êâàäðàòîâ ñòà-
íîâèòñÿ íåâîçìîæíûì. Äëÿ óñòðàíåíèÿ ýòîé ïðîáëåìû ìîæíî
âûðàçèòü îäíó îáúÿñíÿþùóþ ïåðåìåííóþ ÷åðåç îñòàëüíûå è èñ-
êëþ÷èòü åå èç ðàññìîòðåíèÿ, ÷òî êîíå÷íî æå ïðèâåäåò ê èçìåíå-
íèþ ñïåöèôèêàöèè ìîäåëè. Òàêîå ïðåîáðàçîâàíèå äîëæíî áûòü
îáúÿñíåíî ñ òî÷êè çðåíèÿ ïðåäìåòíîé îáëàñòè, äëÿ êîòîðîé ñòðî-
èòñÿ óðàâíåíèå ëèíåéíîé ðåãðåññèè. Òàêæå èñêëþ÷åíèå íåêîòî-
ðîé ïåðåìåííîé èç óðàâíåíèÿ áóäåò èñêàæàòü ïîñëåäóþùèé ÷èñ-
ëåííûé àíàëèç âëèÿíèÿ îáúÿñíÿþùèõ ïåðåìåííûõ íà èçó÷àåìóþ
ïåðåìåííóþ, ò. å. êîýôôèöèåíò ïåðåä îáúÿñíÿþùåé ïåðåìåííîé
â ïîñòðîåííîì óðàâíåíèè ëèíåéíîé ðåãðåññèè óæå íå áóäåò ïî-
êàçûâàòü âëèÿíèå ýòîé ïåðåìåííîé íà çàâèñèìóþ ïåðåìåííóþ, à
áóäåò òàêæå ÷àñòè÷íî ó÷èòûâàòü âëèÿíèå èñêëþ÷åííîé ïåðåìåí-
íîé íà çàâèñèìóþ ïåðåìåííóþ.
Òàêæå âîçìîæíà ñèòóàöèÿ, êîãäà îïðåäåëèòåëü ìàòðèöû
X T X îòëè÷åí îò íóëÿ, íî î÷åíü áëèçîê ê íåìó, ò. å. ñòîëáöû
ìàòðèöû X ¾ïî÷òè ëèíåéíî çàâèñèìû¿. Òîãäà ìåòîä íàèìåíü-
øèõ êâàäðàòîâ ôîðìàëüíî ìîæåò áûòü ïðèìåíåí, íî ïðè îáðà-
ùåíèè ìàòðèöû X T X , ÷òî íà ïðàêòèêå ÷àùå âñåãî äåëàåòñÿ ñ
èñïîëüçîâàíèåì ïðîãðàììíûõ ñðåäñòâ, íåðåäêî ïðèâîäèò ê áîëü-
øèì ïîãðåøíîñòÿì, à â ðåçóëüòàòå, è ê èñêàæåíèþ îöåíîê ìåòîäà
íàèìåíüøèõ êâàäðàòîâ â óðàâíåíèè ëèíåéíîé ðåãðåññèè.
Äëÿ ðåøåíèÿ ïðîáëåìû ìóëüòèêîëëèíåàðíîñòè ïðåäëàãà-
þòñÿ ðàçëè÷íûå ìåòîäû.  ñëåäóþùåì ðàçäåëå ìû ðàññìîòðèì
ìîäåëü ðèäæ (èëè ãðåáíåâîé) ðåãðåññèè, ïîçâîëÿþùåé îáîéòè
ïðîáëåìó ìóëüòèêîëëèíåàðíîñòè.
122
= 1, . . . , k; i = 1, . . . , n), εi íåíàáëþäàåìàÿ ñëó÷àéíàÿ êîìïî-
íåíòà. Óðàâíåíèå (3.4.1) ìîæåò áûòü çàïèñàíî â âåêòîðíîì âèäå:
Y = Xβ + ε, ãäå Y = (y1 , . . . , yn )T , ε = (ε1 , . . . , εn )T è
1 x11 . . . x1k
X = ... ... ... ... .
1 xn1 . . . xnk
Bias(β̂ridge ) = −λW β.
3.4.3. Ðèäæ-ðåãðåññèÿ â R
 ïàêåòå R äëÿ ïîñòðîåíèÿ ðèäæ-ðåãðåññèè ðåàëèçîâàíà
ôóíêöèÿ lm.ridge, êîòîðàÿ âêëþ÷åíà â áèáëèîòåêó MASS.
123
Ïðîäåìîíñòðèðóåì åå ðàáîòó íà ñìîäåëèðîâàííûõ äàííûõ.
Ïóñòü èìåþòñÿ äâå îáúÿñíÿþùèå íåçàâèñèìûå ïåðåìåííûå x1
è x2, çàâèñèìàÿ ïåðåìåííàÿ y. Ïóñòü íàáëþäåíèÿ ïåðåìåííîé
x1 ïðåäñòàâëÿþò íàáîð èç 30 ðåàëèçàöèé ñòàíäàðòíî íîðìàëüíî
ðàñïðåäåëåííîé ñëó÷àéíîé âåëè÷èíû, à íàáëþäåíèÿ x2 íàáîð
èç 30 ðåàëèçàöèé íîðìàëüíî ðàñïðåäåëåííîé ñëó÷àéíîé âåëè÷è-
íû ñ ìàòåìàòè÷åñêèì îæèäàíèåì ñîîòâåòñòâóþùåé ðåàëèçàöèè
x1 è ñðåäíåêâàäðàòè÷åñêèì îòêëîíåíèåì 0.03. Íàáëþäåíèÿ
ïåðåìåííîé y íàáîð èç 30 íåçàâèñèìûõ ðåàëèçàöèé íîðìàëüíî
ðàñïðåäåëåííîé ñëó÷àéíîé âåëè÷èíû ñ ìàòåìàòè÷åñêèì îæè-
äàíèåì 1+x1+x2 è ñðåäíåêâàäðàòè÷åñêèì îòêëîíåíèåì 1. Äëÿ
ìîäåëèðîâàíèÿ ýòèõ âûáîðîê â R èñïîëüçóåì êîä:
x1 <- rnorm(30)
x2 <- rnorm(30,mean=x1,sd=.03)
y <- rnorm(30,mean=1+x1+x2)
library(MASS)
lm.ridge(y ∼ x1+x2,lambda=2)
lm(y ∼ x1+x2)$coef
124
fit <- lm.ridge(y ∼ x1+x2,lambda=seq(0.1,20,by=0.1))
plot(fit)
125
Ïðèëîæåíèÿ
Ïðèëîæåíèå 1
Ðàâíîìåðíî ðàñïðåäåëåííûå ñëó÷àéíûå ÷èñëà
1 2 5 1 2 9 4 0 1 2 8 1 3 2 6 0 9 0 5 7 1 7 0 2 6 6 7 8 8 8
5 1 2 2 5 7 9 5 6 0 3 5 2 8 4 4 7 0 9 5 7 8 7 5 1 3 1 3 1 2
2 5 1 6 4 4 8 5 2 0 2 3 3 3 3 5 2 3 8 7 7 2 3 7 0 2 7 6 4 1
4 5 6 2 1 7 5 1 3 2 1 7 3 2 4 0 6 3 4 3 4 7 1 9 6 2 5 6 7 3
4 0 7 2 6 1 2 6 2 8 8 4 5 9 6 1 8 1 4 4 4 2 5 3 4 2 6 2 8 1
7 4 6 2 6 9 5 9 1 5 5 8 5 9 1 8 4 5 6 6 1 5 8 3 3 6 8 5 8 3
3 8 6 0 8 7 9 4 0 1 6 1 7 5 2 6 7 8 7 8 8 9 0 2 9 4 4 5 5 3
9 7 6 2 7 0 5 9 6 3 6 1 5 0 3 8 4 3 7 4 3 1 2 1 6 8 7 1 2 9
4 0 5 9 5 1 0 5 7 3 9 8 6 2 4 4 6 7 8 5 8 7 3 1 7 8 1 2 9 8
3 6 6 5 0 5 2 8 5 4 8 4 4 3 0 6 2 8 0 4 1 9 7 8 3 4 8 6 6 7
3 1 4 8 5 6 1 7 3 4 8 7 8 7 4 7 9 5 2 3 7 1 8 5 8 1 0 1 8 5
1 6 5 6 1 1 8 5 7 1 7 9 1 7 9 5 3 5 4 6 7 4 7 4 3 8 6 5 6 1
0 5 2 7 1 4 0 8 7 1 0 5 7 1 2 9 5 6 4 8 8 2 1 5 8 6 3 5 6 1
6 3 5 2 6 5 3 1 6 9 8 7 5 7 5 4 2 7 6 7 9 4 9 7 4 3 6 6 4 4
3 2 3 3 7 6 1 4 7 6 2 3 4 2 2 6 2 8 9 6 0 5 8 1 1 1 1 4 2 7
4 1 8 1 1 7 4 6 6 8 7 8 8 9 6 8 6 5 5 3 8 6 1 6 4 8 3 4 5 1
4 4 6 8 0 5 6 7 0 7 5 1 8 6 1 6 8 4 3 4 4 7 6 7 4 2 6 3 7 8
8 4 6 2 3 6 4 9 0 7 6 3 5 7 6 1 2 5 4 9 6 0 2 9 9 8 1 7 3 3
3 5 1 7 9 2 2 0 0 3 6 9 6 7 5 5 1 1 3 5 4 5 8 4 4 4 7 9 2 3
6 7 6 3 1 8 6 5 5 7 3 2 2 8 2 8 6 5 9 0 6 3 4 5 8 9 1 4 2 4
2 9 9 2 4 2 6 6 4 5 2 4 9 4 6 5 4 1 5 0 5 2 5 7 3 3 9 2 0 8
2 7 7 9 1 8 7 1 5 4 1 4 6 9 6 3 8 9 9 3 6 1 9 2 5 7 2 5 7 0
1 0 8 7 0 3 5 1 2 7 5 3 6 6 4 4 8 8 6 4 8 7 2 2 8 2 1 6 4 8
6 5 8 2 7 8 8 7 6 7 8 5 1 1 3 1 3 1 9 3 5 8 4 5 3 1 6 6 3 0
7 4 8 4 7 1 6 4 6 5 3 4 8 6 6 7 2 2 2 8 7 2 5 3 8 5 6 8 5 0
7 3 3 3 8 2 1 7 7 4 1 1 1 1 2 3 5 7 3 6 2 4 7 7 8 8 1 2 5 6
3 1 8 0 1 1 8 3 4 3 6 2 8 4 3 5 3 7 6 2 2 3 7 4 4 3 3 2 7 4
9 2 1 3 6 0 1 3 6 1 1 8 4 9 4 7 6 2 3 1 8 6 0 8 6 5 4 8 1 8
126
Ïðèëîæåíèå 2
Ðàñïðåäåëåíèå Ïóàññîíà ñ ïàðàìåòðîì α
αk −α
P{ξ = k} = e
k!
α 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
k
0 0.9048 0.8187 0.7408 0.6703 0.6065 0.5488 0.4966 0.4493 0.4066 0.3679
1 0.0905 0.1637 0.2222 0.2681 0.3033 0.3293 0.3476 0.3595 0.3659 0.3679
2 0.0045 0.0164 0.0333 0.0536 0.0758 0.0988 0.1217 0.1438 0.1647 0.1839
3 0.0002 0.0011 0.0033 0.0072 0.0126 0.0198 0.0284 0.0383 0.0494 0.0613
4 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0007 0.0016 0.0030 0.0050 0.0077 0.0111 0.0153
5 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0007 0.0012 0.0020 0.0031
6 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003 0.0005
7 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
α 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
k
0 0.1353 0.0498 0.0183 0.0067 0.0025 0.0009 0.0003 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000
1 0.2707 0.1494 0.0733 0.0337 0.0149 0.0064 0.0027 0.0011 0.0005 0.0002
2 0.2707 0.2240 0.1465 0.0842 0.0446 0.0223 0.0107 0.0050 0.0023 0.0010
3 0.1804 0.2240 0.1954 0.1404 0.0892 0.0521 0.0286 0.0150 0.0076 0.0037
4 0.0902 0.1680 0.1954 0.1755 0.1339 0.0912 0.0573 0.0337 0.0189 0.0102
5 0.0361 0.1008 0.1563 0.1755 0.1606 0.1277 0.0916 0.0607 0.0378 0.0224
6 0.0120 0.0504 0.1042 0.1462 0.1606 0.1490 0.1221 0.0911 0.0631 0.0411
7 0.0034 0.0216 0.0595 0.1044 0.1377 0.1490 0.1396 0.1171 0.0901 0.0646
8 0.0009 0.0081 0.0298 0.0653 0.1033 0.1304 0.1396 0.1318 0.1126 0.0888
9 0.0002 0.0027 0.0132 0.0363 0.0688 0.1014 0.1241 0.1318 0.1251 0.1085
10 0.0000 0.0008 0.0053 0.0181 0.0413 0.0710 0.0993 0.1186 0.1251 0.1194
11 0.0000 0.0002 0.0019 0.0082 0.0225 0.0452 0.0722 0.0970 0.1137 0.1194
12 0.0000 0.0001 0.0006 0.0034 0.0113 0.0263 0.0481 0.0728 0.0948 0.1094
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0013 0.0052 0.0142 0.0296 0.0504 0.0729 0.0926
14 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0022 0.0071 0.0169 0.0324 0.0521 0.0728
15 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0009 0.0033 0.0090 0.0194 0.0347 0.0534
16 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0014 0.0045 0.0109 0.0217 0.0367
17 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0006 0.0021 0.0058 0.0128 0.0237
18 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0009 0.0029 0.0071 0.0145
19 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0014 0.0037 0.0084
20 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0006 0.0019 0.0046
21 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0009 0.0024
22 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0012
23 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0006
24 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003
25 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
127
Ïðèëîæåíèå 3
Òàáëèöà çíà÷åíèé ôóíêöèè áèíîìèàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
ñ ïàðàìåòðîì p â ñåðèè èç n èñïûòàíèé
X
B(x; n, p) = Cny py (1 − p)n−y ,
06y6x
B(x; n, 1 − p) = 1 − B(n − 1 − x; n, p)
p 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50
n x
5 0 0.774 0.590 0.444 0.328 0.237 0.168 0.116 0.078 0.050 0.031
1 0.977 0.919 0.835 0.737 0.633 0.528 0.428 0.337 0.256 0.188
2 0.999 0.991 0.973 0.942 0.896 0.837 0.765 0.683 0.593 0.500
3 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.993 0.984 0.969 0.946 0.913 0.869 0.813
4 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.998 0.995 0.990 0.982 0.969
5 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
10 0 0.599 0.349 0.197 0.107 0.056 0.028 0.013 0.006 0.003 0.001
1 0.914 0.736 0.544 0.376 0.244 0.149 0.086 0.046 0.023 0.011
2 0.988 0.930 0.820 0.678 0.526 0.383 0.262 0.167 0.100 0.055
3 0.999 0.987 0.950 0.879 0.776 0.650 0.514 0.382 0.266 0.172
4 1.000 0.998 0.990 0.967 0.922 0.850 0.751 0.633 0.504 0.377
5 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.994 0.980 0.953 0.905 0.834 0.738 0.623
6 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.996 0.989 0.974 0.945 0.898 0.828
7 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.995 0.988 0.973 0.945
8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.998 0.995 0.989
9 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999
10 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
15 0 0.463 0.206 0.087 0.035 0.013 0.005 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000
1 0.829 0.549 0.319 0.167 0.080 0.035 0.014 0.005 0.002 0.000
2 0.964 0.816 0.604 0.398 0.236 0.127 0.062 0.027 0.011 0.004
3 0.995 0.944 0.823 0.648 0.461 0.297 0.173 0.091 0.042 0.018
4 0.999 0.987 0.938 0.836 0.686 0.515 0.352 0.217 0.120 0.059
5 1.000 0.998 0.983 0.939 0.852 0.722 0.564 0.403 0.261 0.151
6 1.000 1.000 0.996 0.982 0.943 0.869 0.755 0.610 0.452 0.304
7 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.996 0.983 0.950 0.887 0.787 0.654 0.500
8 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.996 0.985 0.958 0.905 0.818 0.696
9 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.996 0.988 0.966 0.923 0.849
10 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.997 0.991 0.975 0.941
11 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.994 0.982
12 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.996
13 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
14 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
15 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
128
p 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50
n x
20 0 0.358 0.122 0.039 0.012 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1 0.736 0.392 0.176 0.069 0.024 0.008 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000
2 0.925 0.677 0.405 0.206 0.091 0.035 0.012 0.004 0.001 0.000
3 0.984 0.867 0.648 0.411 0.225 0.107 0.044 0.016 0.005 0.001
4 0.997 0.957 0.830 0.630 0.415 0.238 0.118 0.051 0.019 0.006
5 1.000 0.989 0.933 0.804 0.617 0.416 0.245 0.126 0.055 0.021
6 1.000 0.998 0.978 0.913 0.786 0.608 0.417 0.250 0.130 0.058
7 1.000 1.000 0.994 0.968 0.898 0.772 0.601 0.416 0.252 0.132
8 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.990 0.959 0.887 0.762 0.596 0.414 0.252
9 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.997 0.986 0.952 0.878 0.755 0.591 0.412
10 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.996 0.983 0.947 0.872 0.751 0.588
11 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.995 0.980 0.943 0.869 0.748
12 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.994 0.979 0.942 0.868
13 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.994 0.979 0.942
14 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.994 0.979
15 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.994
16 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999
17 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
18 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
19 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
20 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
25 0 0.277 0.072 0.017 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1 0.642 0.271 0.093 0.027 0.007 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2 0.873 0.537 0.254 0.098 0.032 0.009 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000
3 0.966 0.764 0.471 0.234 0.096 0.033 0.010 0.002 0.000 0.000
4 0.993 0.902 0.682 0.421 0.214 0.090 0.032 0.009 0.002 0.000
5 0.999 0.967 0.838 0.617 0.378 0.193 0.083 0.029 0.009 0.002
6 1.000 0.991 0.930 0.780 0.561 0.341 0.173 0.074 0.026 0.007
7 1.000 0.998 0.975 0.891 0.727 0.512 0.306 0.154 0.064 0.022
8 1.000 1.000 0.992 0.953 0.851 0.677 0.467 0.274 0.134 0.054
9 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.983 0.929 0.811 0.630 0.425 0.242 0.115
10 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.994 0.970 0.902 0.771 0.586 0.384 0.212
11 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.989 0.956 0.875 0.732 0.543 0.345
12 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.997 0.983 0.940 0.846 0.694 0.500
13 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.994 0.975 0.922 0.817 0.655
14 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.991 0.966 0.904 0.788
15 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.997 0.987 0.956 0.885
16 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.996 0.983 0.946
17 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.994 0.978
18 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.993
19 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998
20 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
21 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
22 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
23 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
24 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
25 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
129
Ïðèëîæåíèå 4
Òàáëèöà çíà÷åíèé ôóíêöèè ñòàíäàðòíîãî
íîðìàëüíîãî ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
Zx
1 y2
F (x) = √ e− 2 dy
2π
−∞
x 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359
0.1 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753
0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141
0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517
0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879
0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224
0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549
0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7703 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852
0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133
0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389
1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621
1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830
1.2 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015
1.3 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 0.9162 0.9177
1.4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.9306 0.9319
1.5 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9394 0.9406 0.9418 0.9429 0.9441
1.6 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.9545
1.7 0.9554 0.9564 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.9633
1.8 0.9641 0.9649 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.9699 0.9706
1.9 0.9713 0.9719 0.9726 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9756 0.9761 0.9767
2.0 0.9772 0.9778 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.9817
2.1 0.9821 0.9826 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9854 0.9857
2.2 0.9861 0.9864 0.9868 0.9871 0.9875 0.9878 0.9881 0.9884 0.9887 0.9890
2.3 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.9916
2.4 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936
2.5 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.9952
2.6 0.9953 0.9955 0.9956 0.9957 0.9959 0.9960 0.9961 0.9962 0.9963 0.9964
2.7 0.9965 0.9966 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.9970 0.9971 0.9972 0.9973 0.9974
2.8 0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9977 0.9977 0.9978 0.9979 0.9979 0.9980 0.9981
2.9 0.9981 0.9982 0.9982 0.9983 0.9984 0.9984 0.9985 0.9985 0.9986 0.9986
3.0 0.9987 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9988 0.9989 0.9989 0.9989 0.9990 0.9990
3.1 0.9990 0.9991 0.9991 0.9991 0.9992 0.9992 0.9992 0.9992 0.9993 0.9993
3.2 0.9993 0.9993 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9995 0.9995 0.9995
3.3 0.9995 0.9995 0.9995 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9997
3.4 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9998
3.5 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998
3.6 0.9998 0.9998 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999
3.7 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999
3.8 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999
3.9 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
130
Ïðèëîæåíèå 5
Òàáëèöà çíà÷åíèé ôóíêöèè ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
Êîëìîãîðîâà
∞
2
x2
X
K(x) = 1 + 2 (−1)m e−2m
m=1
x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0.2 0.000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000001 000004
0.3 0.000009 000021 000046 000091 000171 000303 000511 000826 001285 001929
0.4 0.002808 003972 005476 007377 009730 012589 016005 020022 024682 030017
0.5 0.036055 042814 050306 058534 067497 077183 087577 098656 110394 122760
0.6 0.135718 149229 163255 177752 192677 207987 223637 239582 255780 272188
0.7 0.288765 305471 322265 339114 355981 372833 389640 406372 423002 439505
0.8 0.455858 472039 488028 503809 519365 534682 549745 564545 579071 593315
0.9 0.607269 620928 634285 647337 660081 672515 684836 696445 707941 719126
1.0 0.730000 740566 750825 760781 770436 779794 788860 797637 806130 814343
1.1 0.822282 829951 837356 844502 851395 858040 864443 870610 876546 882258
1.2 0.887750 893030 898102 903973 907648 912134 916435 920557 924506 928288
1.3 0.931908 935371 938682 941847 944871 947758 950514 953144 955651 958041
1.4 0.960318 962487 964551 966515 968383 970159 971846 973448 974969 976413
1.5 0.977782 979080 980310 981475 982579 983623 984610 985544 986427 987261
1.6 0.988048 988791 989492 990154 990777 991364 991917 992438 992928 993389
1.7 0.993823 994230 994612 994972 995309 995625 995922 996200 996460 996704
1.8 0.996932 997146 997346 997533 997707 997870 998023 998165 998297 998421
1.9 0.998536 998644 998744 998837 998924 999004 999079 999149 999213 999273
2.0 0.999329 999381 999429 999473 999514 999553 999588 999620 999651 999679
2.1 0.999705 999728 999750 999771 999790 999807 999823 999837 999851 999863
2.2 0.999874 999886 999895 999904 999912 999920 999927 999933 999939 999944
2.3 0.999949 999954 999958 999961 999965 999968 999971 999974 999976 999978
2.4 0.999980 999982 999984 999985 999987 999988 999989 999990 999991 999992
131
Ïðèëîæåíèå 6
Òàáëèöà êâàíòèëåé χ 2
óðîâíÿ α χ2 -ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ
c n ñòåïåíÿìè ñâîáîäû
α,n
χ2α,n
Z
1 n x
n x 2 −1 e− 2 dx = α
2 2 Γ( n2 )
0
α 0.001 0.005 0.010 0.025 0.050 0.10 0.125 0.200 0.250 0.333 0.500
n
1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.016 0.025 0.064 0.102 0.186 0.455
2 0.002 0.010 0.020 0.051 0.103 0.211 0.267 0.446 0.575 0.811 1.386
3 0.024 0.072 0.115 0.216 0.352 0.584 0.692 1.005 1.213 1.568 2.366
4 0.091 0.207 0.297 0.484 0.711 1.064 1.219 1.649 1.923 2.378 3.357
5 0.210 0.412 0.554 0.831 1.145 1.610 1.808 2.343 2.675 3.216 4.351
6 0.381 0.676 0.872 1.237 1.635 2.204 2.441 3.070 3.455 4.074 5.348
7 0.598 0.989 1.239 1.690 2.167 2.833 3.106 3.822 4.255 4.945 6.346
8 0.857 1.344 1.646 2.180 2.733 3.490 3.797 4.594 5.071 5.826 7.344
9 1.152 1.735 2.088 2.700 3.325 4.168 4.507 5.380 5.899 6.716 8.343
10 1.479 2.156 2.558 3.247 3.940 4.865 5.234 6.179 6.737 7.612 9.342
11 1.834 2.603 3.053 3.816 4.575 5.578 5.975 6.989 7.584 8.514 10.341
12 2.214 3.074 3.571 4.404 5.226 6.304 6.729 7.807 8.438 9.420 11.340
13 2.617 3.565 4.107 5.009 5.892 7.042 7.493 8.634 9.299 10.331 12.340
14 3.041 4.075 4.660 5.629 6.571 7.790 8.266 9.467 10.165 11.245 13.339
15 3.483 4.601 5.229 6.262 7.261 8.547 9.048 10.307 11.037 12.163 14.339
16 3.942 5.142 5.812 6.908 7.962 9.312 9.837 11.152 11.912 13.083 15.338
17 4.416 5.697 6.408 7.564 8.672 10.085 10.633 12.002 12.792 14.006 16.338
18 4.905 6.265 7.015 8.231 9.390 10.865 11.435 12.857 13.675 14.931 17.338
19 5.407 6.844 7.633 8.907 10.117 11.651 12.242 13.716 14.562 15.859 18.338
20 5.921 7.434 8.260 9.591 10.851 12.443 13.055 14.578 15.452 16.788 19.337
21 6.447 8.034 8.897 10.283 11.591 13.240 13.873 15.445 16.344 17.720 20.337
22 6.983 8.643 9.542 10.982 12.338 14.041 14.695 16.314 17.240 18.653 21.337
23 7.529 9.260 10.196 11.689 13.091 14.848 15.521 17.187 18.137 19.587 22.337
24 8.085 9.886 10.856 12.401 13.848 15.659 16.351 18.062 19.037 20.523 23.337
25 8.649 10.520 11.524 13.120 14.611 16.473 17.184 18.940 19.939 21.461 24.337
26 9.222 11.160 12.198 13.844 15.379 17.292 18.021 19.820 20.843 22.399 25.336
27 9.803 11.808 12.879 14.573 16.151 18.114 18.861 20.703 21.749 23.339 26.336
28 10.391 12.461 13.565 15.308 16.928 18.939 19.704 21.588 22.657 24.280 27.336
29 10.986 13.121 14.256 16.047 17.708 19.768 20.550 22.475 23.567 25.222 28.336
30 11.588 13.787 14.953 16.791 18.493 20.599 21.399 23.364 24.478 26.165 29.336
35 14.688 17.192 18.509 20.569 22.465 24.797 25.678 27.836 29.054 30.894 34.336
40 17.916 20.707 22.164 24.433 26.509 29.051 30.008 32.345 33.660 35.643 39.335
45 21.251 24.311 25.901 28.366 30.612 33.350 34.379 36.884 38.291 40.407 44.335
50 24.674 27.991 29.707 32.357 34.764 37.689 38.785 41.449 42.942 45.184 49.335
55 28.173 31.735 33.570 36.398 38.958 42.060 43.220 46.036 47.610 49.972 54.335
60 31.738 35.534 37.485 40.482 43.188 46.459 47.680 50.641 52.294 54.770 59.335
132
α 0.600 0.667 0.750 0.800 0.875 0.900 0.950 0.975 0.990 0.995 0.999
n
1 0.708 0.936 1.323 1.642 2.354 2.706 3.841 5.024 6.635 7.879 10.828
2 1.833 2.197 2.773 3.219 4.159 4.605 5.991 7.378 9.210 10.597 13.816
3 2.946 3.405 4.108 4.642 5.739 6.251 7.815 9.348 11.345 12.838 16.266
4 4.045 4.579 5.385 5.989 7.214 7.779 9.488 11.143 13.277 14.860 18.467
5 5.132 5.730 6.626 7.289 8.625 9.236 11.070 12.833 15.086 16.750 20.515
6 6.211 6.867 7.841 8.558 9.992 10.645 12.592 14.449 16.812 18.548 22.458
7 7.283 7.992 9.037 9.803 11.326 12.017 14.067 16.013 18.475 20.278 24.322
8 8.351 9.107 10.219 11.030 12.636 13.362 15.507 17.535 20.090 21.955 26.125
9 9.414 10.215 11.389 12.242 13.926 14.684 16.919 19.023 21.666 23.589 27.877
10 10.473 11.317 12.549 13.442 15.198 15.987 18.307 20.483 23.209 25.188 29.588
11 11.530 12.414 13.701 14.631 16.457 17.275 19.675 21.920 24.725 26.757 31.264
12 12.584 13.506 14.845 15.812 17.703 18.549 21.026 23.337 26.217 28.300 32.910
13 13.636 14.595 15.984 16.985 18.939 19.812 22.362 24.736 27.688 29.819 34.528
14 14.685 15.680 17.117 18.151 20.166 21.064 23.685 26.119 29.141 31.319 36.123
15 15.733 16.761 18.245 19.311 21.384 22.307 24.996 27.488 30.578 32.801 37.697
16 16.780 17.840 19.369 20.465 22.595 23.542 26.296 28.845 32.000 34.267 39.252
17 17.824 18.917 20.489 21.615 23.799 24.769 27.587 30.191 33.409 35.718 40.790
18 18.868 19.991 21.605 22.760 24.997 25.989 28.869 31.526 34.805 37.156 42.312
19 19.910 21.063 22.718 23.900 26.189 27.204 30.144 32.852 36.191 38.582 43.820
20 20.951 22.133 23.828 25.038 27.376 28.412 31.410 34.170 37.566 39.997 45.315
21 21.991 23.201 24.935 26.171 28.559 29.615 32.671 35.479 38.932 41.401 46.797
22 23.031 24.268 26.039 27.301 29.737 30.813 33.924 36.781 40.289 42.796 48.268
23 24.069 25.333 27.141 28.429 30.911 32.007 35.172 38.076 41.638 44.181 49.728
24 25.106 26.397 28.241 29.553 32.081 33.196 36.415 39.364 42.980 45.559 51.179
25 26.143 27.459 29.339 30.675 33.247 34.382 37.652 40.646 44.314 46.928 52.620
26 27.179 28.520 30.435 31.795 34.410 35.563 38.885 41.923 45.642 48.290 54.052
27 28.214 29.580 31.528 32.912 35.570 36.741 40.113 43.195 46.963 49.645 55.476
28 29.249 30.639 32.620 34.027 36.727 37.916 41.337 44.461 48.278 50.993 56.892
29 30.283 31.697 33.711 35.139 37.881 39.087 42.557 45.722 49.588 52.336 58.301
30 31.316 32.754 34.800 36.250 39.033 40.256 43.773 46.979 50.892 53.672 59.703
35 36.475 38.024 40.223 41.778 44.753 46.059 49.802 53.203 57.342 60.275 66.619
40 41.622 43.275 45.616 47.269 50.424 51.805 55.758 59.342 63.691 66.766 73.402
45 46.761 48.510 50.985 52.729 56.052 57.505 61.656 65.410 69.957 73.166 80.077
50 51.892 53.733 56.334 58.164 61.647 63.167 67.505 71.420 76.154 79.490 86.661
55 57.016 58.945 61.665 63.577 67.211 68.796 73.311 77.380 82.292 85.749 93.168
60 62.135 64.147 66.981 68.972 72.751 74.397 79.082 83.298 88.379 91.952 99.607
133
Ïðèëîæåíèå 7
Òàáëèöà êâàíòèëåé t óðîâíÿ α
ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Ñòüþäåíòà c n ñòåïåíÿìè ñâîáîäû
α,n
tZα,n
Γ( n+1 ) dx
√ 2 n n+1 =α
nπΓ( 2 ) x2 2
−∞ 1+ n
α 0.600 0.667 0.750 0.800 0.875 0.900 0.950 0.975 0.990 0.995 0.999
n
1 0.325 0.577 1.000 1.376 2.414 3.078 6.314 12.706 31.821 63.657 318.31
2 0.289 0.500 0.816 1.061 1.604 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 22.327
3 0.277 0.476 0.765 0.978 1.423 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841 10.215
4 0.271 0.464 0.741 0.941 1.344 1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604 7.173
5 0.267 0.457 0.727 0.920 1.301 1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032 5.893
6 0.265 0.453 0.718 0.906 1.273 1.440 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707 5.208
7 0.263 0.449 0.711 0.896 1.254 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499 4.785
8 0.262 0.447 0.706 0.889 1.240 1.397 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355 4.501
9 0.261 0.445 0.703 0.883 1.230 1.383 1.833 2.262 2.821 3.250 4.297
10 0.260 0.444 0.700 0.879 1.221 1.372 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169 4.144
11 0.260 0.443 0.697 0.876 1.214 1.363 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106 4.025
12 0.259 0.442 0.695 0.873 1.209 1.356 1.782 2.179 2.681 3.055 3.930
13 0.259 0.441 0.694 0.870 1.204 1.350 1.771 2.160 2.650 3.012 3.852
14 0.258 0.440 0.692 0.868 1.200 1.345 1.761 2.145 2.624 2.977 3.787
15 0.258 0.439 0.691 0.866 1.197 1.341 1.753 2.131 2.602 2.947 3.733
16 0.258 0.439 0.690 0.865 1.194 1.337 1.746 2.120 2.583 2.921 3.686
17 0.257 0.438 0.689 0.863 1.191 1.333 1.740 2.110 2.567 2.898 3.646
18 0.257 0.438 0.688 0.862 1.189 1.330 1.734 2.101 2.552 2.878 3.610
19 0.257 0.438 0.688 0.861 1.187 1.328 1.729 2.093 2.539 2.861 3.579
20 0.257 0.437 0.687 0.860 1.185 1.325 1.725 2.086 2.528 2.845 3.552
21 0.257 0.437 0.686 0.859 1.183 1.323 1.721 2.080 2.518 2.831 3.527
22 0.256 0.437 0.686 0.858 1.182 1.321 1.717 2.074 2.508 2.819 3.505
23 0.256 0.436 0.685 0.858 1.180 1.319 1.714 2.069 2.500 2.807 3.485
24 0.256 0.436 0.685 0.857 1.179 1.318 1.711 2.064 2.492 2.797 3.467
25 0.256 0.436 0.684 0.856 1.178 1.316 1.708 2.060 2.485 2.787 3.450
26 0.256 0.436 0.684 0.856 1.177 1.315 1.706 2.056 2.479 2.779 3.435
27 0.256 0.435 0.684 0.855 1.176 1.314 1.703 2.052 2.473 2.771 3.421
28 0.256 0.435 0.683 0.855 1.175 1.313 1.701 2.048 2.467 2.763 3.408
29 0.256 0.435 0.683 0.854 1.174 1.311 1.699 2.045 2.462 2.756 3.396
30 0.256 0.435 0.683 0.854 1.173 1.310 1.697 2.042 2.457 2.750 3.385
35 0.255 0.434 0.682 0.852 1.170 1.306 1.690 2.030 2.438 2.724 3.340
40 0.255 0.434 0.681 0.851 1.167 1.303 1.684 2.021 2.423 2.704 3.307
45 0.255 0.434 0.680 0.850 1.165 1.301 1.679 2.014 2.412 2.690 3.281
50 0.255 0.433 0.679 0.849 1.164 1.299 1.676 2.009 2.403 2.678 3.261
55 0.255 0.433 0.679 0.848 1.163 1.297 1.673 2.004 2.396 2.668 3.245
60 0.254 0.433 0.679 0.848 1.162 1.296 1.671 2.000 2.390 2.660 3.232
∞ 0.253 0.431 0.674 0.842 1.150 1.282 1.645 1.960 2.326 2.576 3.090
134
Ïðèëîæåíèå 8
Òàáëèöà êâàíòèëåé F óðîâíÿ α
ðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ Ôèøåðà c n è m ñòåïåíÿìè ñâîáîäû
α,n,m
Fα,n,m
q
Z (nx)n mm
(nx+m)n+m 1
dx = α, Fα,n,m ≡
xB n2 , m
2
F1−α,m,n
0
m\n 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 15 20 30 50 ∞
α
1 0.500 1.50 1.71 1.82 1.89 1.94 1.98 2.00 2.04 2.07 2.09 2.12 2.15 2.17 2.20
0.600 2.63 2.93 3.09 3.20 3.27 3.32 3.36 3.41 3.45 3.48 3.52 3.56 3.59 3.64
0.667 4.00 4.42 4.64 4.78 4.88 4.95 5.00 5.08 5.13 5.18 5.24 5.29 5.33 5.39
0.750 7.50 8.20 8.58 8.82 8.98 9.10 9.19 9.32 9.41 9.50 9.58 9.67 9.74 9.85
0.800 12.0 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.6
2 0.500 1.00 1.13 1.21 1.25 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.35 1.36 1.38 1.39 1.41 1.42 1.44
0.600 1.50 1.64 1.72 1.76 1.80 1.82 1.84 1.86 1.88 1.89 1.91 1.92 1.94 1.96
0.667 2.00 2.15 2.22 2.27 2.30 2.33 2.34 2.37 2.38 2.40 2.42 2.43 2.45 2.47
0.750 3.00 3.15 3.23 3.28 3.31 3.34 3.35 3.38 3.39 3.41 3.43 3.44 3.46 3.48
0.800 4.00 4.16 4.24 4.28 4.32 4.34 4.36 4.38 4.40 4.42 4.43 4.45 4.47 4.48
3 0.500 0.88 1.00 1.06 1.10 1.13 1.15 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.21 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.27
0.600 1.26 1.37 1.43 1.47 1.49 1.51 1.52 1.54 1.55 1.56 1.57 1.58 1.59 1.60
0.667 1.62 1.72 1.77 1.80 1.82 1.83 1.84 1.86 1.87 1.88 1.89 1.90 1.90 1.91
0.750 2.28 2.36 2.39 2.41 2.42 2.43 2.44 2.44 2.45 2.46 2.46 2.47 2.47 2.47
0.800 2.89 2.94 2.96 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.98 2.98 2.98 2.98 2.98 2.98 2.98 2.98
4 0.500 0.83 0.94 1.00 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.18 1.19
0.600 1.16 1.26 1.31 1.34 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.40 1.41 1.42 1.43 1.43 1.44 1.45
0.667 1.46 1.55 1.58 1.61 1.62 1.63 1.64 1.65 1.65 1.66 1.67 1.67 1.68 1.68
0.750 2.00 2.05 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08
0.800 2.47 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.46 2.46 2.45 2.44 2.44 2.43 2.43
5 0.500 0.80 0.91 0.96 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.15
0.600 1.11 1.20 1.24 1.27 1.29 1.30 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.37
0.667 1.38 1.45 1.48 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.53 1.53 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.55 1.55 1.55
0.750 1.85 1.88 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.87
0.800 2.26 2.25 2.24 2.23 2.22 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.18 2.17 2.16 2.15 2.13
6 0.500 0.78 0.89 0.94 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.10 1.11 1.12
0.600 1.07 1.16 1.20 1.22 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29 1.29 1.30 1.31 1.31
0.667 1.33 1.39 1.42 1.44 1.44 1.45 1.45 1.46 1.46 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47
0.750 1.76 1.78 1.79 1.79 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.77 1.77 1.76 1.76 1.75 1.75 1.74
0.800 2.13 2.11 2.09 2.08 2.06 2.05 2.04 2.03 2.02 2.01 2.00 1.98 1.97 1.95
7 0.500 0.77 0.87 0.93 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10
0.600 1.05 1.13 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.27
0.667 1.29 1.35 1.38 1.39 1.40 1.40 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.42 1.42 1.42
0.750 1.70 1.72 1.72 1.71 1.71 1.70 1.70 1.69 1.68 1.68 1.67 1.66 1.66 1.65
0.800 2.04 2.02 1.99 1.97 1.96 1.94 1.93 1.92 1.91 1.89 1.88 1.86 1.85 1.83
8 0.500 0.76 0.86 0.91 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.07 1.07 1.09
0.600 1.03 1.11 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.25
0.667 1.26 1.32 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.37 1.37
0.750 1.66 1.67 1.66 1.66 1.65 1.64 1.64 1.63 1.62 1.62 1.61 1.60 1.59 1.58
0.800 1.98 1.95 1.92 1.90 1.88 1.87 1.86 1.84 1.83 1.81 1.80 1.78 1.76 1.74
135
m\n 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 15 20 30 50 ∞
α
9 0.500 0.75 0.85 0.91 0.94 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.08
0.600 1.02 1.10 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.21 1.22 1.22 1.22
0.667 1.24 1.30 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.34 1.34
0.750 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.62 1.61 1.60 1.60 1.59 1.58 1.57 1.56 1.55 1.54 1.53
0.800 1.93 1.90 1.87 1.85 1.83 1.81 1.80 1.78 1.76 1.75 1.73 1.71 1.70 1.67
10 0.500 0.74 0.85 0.90 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.07
0.600 1.01 1.08 1.12 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.21
0.667 1.23 1.28 1.30 1.31 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.31
0.750 1.60 1.60 1.59 1.59 1.58 1.57 1.56 1.55 1.54 1.53 1.52 1.51 1.50 1.48
0.800 1.90 1.86 1.83 1.80 1.78 1.77 1.75 1.73 1.72 1.70 1.68 1.66 1.65 1.62
11 0.500 0.74 0.84 0.89 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06
0.600 1.00 1.07 1.11 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.19
0.667 1.22 1.27 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.29
0.750 1.58 1.58 1.57 1.56 1.55 1.54 1.53 1.52 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.48 1.47 1.45
0.800 1.87 1.83 1.80 1.77 1.75 1.73 1.72 1.69 1.68 1.66 1.64 1.62 1.60 1.57
12 0.500 0.73 0.84 0.89 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.06
0.600 0.99 1.07 1.10 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.16 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.18 1.18
0.667 1.21 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.28 1.28 1.27
0.750 1.56 1.56 1.55 1.54 1.53 1.52 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.48 1.47 1.45 1.44 1.42
0.800 1.85 1.80 1.77 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 1.66 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.59 1.57 1.54
13 0.500 0.73 0.83 0.88 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05
0.600 0.98 1.06 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.15 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.17 1.17
0.667 1.20 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.26
0.750 1.55 1.55 1.53 1.52 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.43 1.42 1.40
0.800 1.83 1.78 1.75 1.72 1.69 1.68 1.66 1.64 1.62 1.60 1.58 1.56 1.54 1.51
14 0.500 0.73 0.83 0.88 0.91 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.05
0.600 0.98 1.05 1.09 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.13 1.14 1.14 1.15 1.15 1.16 1.16 1.16
0.667 1.19 1.24 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.25 1.24
0.750 1.53 1.53 1.52 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.48 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.43 1.41 1.40 1.38
0.800 1.81 1.76 1.73 1.70 1.67 1.65 1.64 1.62 1.60 1.58 1.56 1.53 1.51 1.48
15 0.500 0.73 0.83 0.88 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.05
0.600 0.97 1.05 1.08 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.13 1.14 1.14 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15
0.667 1.18 1.23 1.25 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.24 1.23
0.750 1.52 1.52 1.51 1.49 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.43 1.41 1.40 1.38 1.36
0.800 1.80 1.75 1.71 1.68 1.66 1.64 1.62 1.60 1.58 1.56 1.54 1.51 1.49 1.46
16 0.500 0.72 0.82 0.88 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04
0.600 0.97 1.04 1.08 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.13 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14
0.667 1.18 1.22 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.24 1.24 1.23 1.22
0.750 1.51 1.51 1.50 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.43 1.41 1.40 1.38 1.37 1.34
0.800 1.78 1.74 1.70 1.67 1.64 1.62 1.61 1.58 1.56 1.54 1.52 1.49 1.47 1.43
17 0.500 0.72 0.82 0.87 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04
0.600 0.97 1.04 1.07 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.14 1.14 1.14
0.667 1.17 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.22 1.21
0.750 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.43 1.41 1.40 1.39 1.37 1.36 1.33
0.800 1.77 1.72 1.68 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.59 1.57 1.55 1.53 1.50 1.48 1.46 1.42
136
m\n 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 15 20 30 50 ∞
α
18 0.500 0.72 0.82 0.87 0.90 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.02 1.04
0.600 0.96 1.04 1.07 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13
0.667 1.17 1.21 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.22 1.22 1.21
0.750 1.50 1.49 1.48 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.43 1.42 1.40 1.39 1.38 1.36 1.34 1.32
0.800 1.76 1.71 1.67 1.64 1.62 1.60 1.58 1.55 1.53 1.51 1.49 1.46 1.44 1.40
19 0.500 0.72 0.82 0.87 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.04
0.600 0.96 1.03 1.07 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13
0.667 1.16 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.22 1.22 1.21 1.20
0.750 1.49 1.49 1.47 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.42 1.41 1.40 1.38 1.37 1.35 1.33 1.30
0.800 1.75 1.70 1.66 1.63 1.61 1.58 1.57 1.54 1.52 1.50 1.48 1.45 1.43 1.39
20 0.500 0.72 0.82 0.87 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03
0.600 0.96 1.03 1.06 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12
0.667 1.16 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.21 1.20 1.19
0.750 1.49 1.48 1.47 1.45 1.44 1.43 1.42 1.40 1.39 1.37 1.36 1.34 1.32 1.29
0.800 1.75 1.70 1.65 1.62 1.60 1.58 1.56 1.53 1.51 1.49 1.47 1.44 1.41 1.37
21 0.500 0.72 0.81 0.87 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03
0.600 0.96 1.03 1.06 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12
0.667 1.16 1.20 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.21 1.20 1.20 1.19
0.750 1.48 1.48 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.42 1.41 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.35 1.33 1.32 1.28
0.800 1.74 1.69 1.65 1.61 1.59 1.57 1.55 1.52 1.50 1.48 1.46 1.43 1.40 1.36
22 0.500 0.72 0.81 0.87 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03
0.600 0.96 1.03 1.06 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12
0.667 1.16 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.19 1.18
0.750 1.48 1.47 1.45 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.40 1.39 1.37 1.36 1.34 1.32 1.31 1.28
0.800 1.73 1.68 1.64 1.61 1.58 1.56 1.54 1.51 1.49 1.47 1.45 1.42 1.39 1.35
23 0.500 0.71 0.81 0.86 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03
0.600 0.95 1.02 1.06 1.07 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
0.667 1.15 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.19 1.19 1.17
0.750 1.47 1.47 1.45 1.43 1.42 1.41 1.40 1.38 1.37 1.35 1.34 1.32 1.30 1.27
0.800 1.73 1.68 1.63 1.60 1.57 1.55 1.53 1.51 1.49 1.46 1.44 1.41 1.38 1.34
24 0.500 0.71 0.81 0.86 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.01 1.01 1.03
0.600 0.95 1.02 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
0.667 1.15 1.19 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.17
0.750 1.47 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.41 1.40 1.39 1.38 1.36 1.35 1.33 1.31 1.29 1.26
0.800 1.72 1.67 1.63 1.59 1.57 1.55 1.53 1.50 1.48 1.46 1.43 1.40 1.38 1.33
25 0.500 0.71 0.81 0.86 0.89 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.03
0.600 0.95 1.02 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
0.667 1.15 1.19 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.20 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.16
0.750 1.47 1.46 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.40 1.39 1.37 1.36 1.34 1.33 1.31 1.29 1.25
0.800 1.72 1.66 1.62 1.59 1.56 1.54 1.52 1.49 1.47 1.45 1.42 1.39 1.37 1.32
26 0.500 0.71 0.81 0.86 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.03
0.600 0.95 1.02 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.10
0.667 1.15 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.18 1.16
0.750 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.35 1.34 1.32 1.30 1.28 1.25
0.800 1.71 1.66 1.62 1.58 1.56 1.53 1.52 1.49 1.47 1.44 1.42 1.39 1.36 1.31
137
m\n 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 15 20 30 50 ∞
α
27 0.500 0.71 0.81 0.86 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.03
0.600 0.95 1.02 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10
0.667 1.14 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.16
0.750 1.46 1.45 1.43 1.42 1.40 1.39 1.38 1.36 1.35 1.33 1.32 1.30 1.28 1.24
0.800 1.71 1.66 1.61 1.58 1.55 1.53 1.51 1.48 1.46 1.44 1.41 1.38 1.35 1.30
28 0.500 0.71 0.81 0.86 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02
0.600 0.95 1.02 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10
0.667 1.14 1.18 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.15
0.750 1.46 1.45 1.43 1.41 1.40 1.39 1.38 1.36 1.34 1.33 1.31 1.29 1.27 1.24
0.800 1.71 1.65 1.61 1.57 1.55 1.52 1.51 1.48 1.46 1.43 1.41 1.37 1.35 1.30
29 0.500 0.71 0.81 0.86 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02
0.600 0.95 1.02 1.05 1.06 1.08 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10
0.667 1.14 1.18 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.15
0.750 1.45 1.45 1.43 1.41 1.40 1.38 1.37 1.35 1.34 1.32 1.31 1.29 1.27 1.23
0.800 1.70 1.65 1.60 1.57 1.54 1.52 1.50 1.47 1.45 1.43 1.40 1.37 1.34 1.29
30 0.500 0.71 0.8l 0.86 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02
0.600 0.94 1.01 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.09
0.667 1.14 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.16 1.15
0.750 1.45 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.35 1.34 1.32 1.30 1.28 1.26 1.23
0.800 1.70 1.64 1.60 1.57 1.54 1.52 1.50 1.47 1.45 1.42 1.39 1.36 1.34 1.28
60 0.500 0.70 0.80 0.85 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01
0.600 0.93 1.00 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.06
0.667 1.12 1.16 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.16 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.10
0.750 1.42 1.41 1.38 1.37 1.35 1.33 1.32 1.30 1.29 1.27 1.25 1.22 1.20 1.15
0.800 1.65 1.59 1.55 1.51 1.48 1.46 1.44 1.41 1.38 1.35 1.32 1.29 1.25 1.18
80 0.500 0.70 0.80 0.85 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.01
0.600 0.93 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.06 1.06 1.05
0.667 1.11 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.17 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.11 1.08
0.750 1.41 1.40 1.38 1.36 1.34 1.32 1.31 1.29 1.27 1.26 1.23 1.21 1.18 1.12
0.800 1.64 1.58 1.53 1.50 1.47 1.44 1.42 1.39 1.37 1.34 1.31 1.27 1.23 1.16
100 0.500 0.70 0.79 0.84 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.01
0.600 0.92 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.04
0.667 1.11 1.15 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.10 1.07
0.750 1.41 1.39 1.37 1.35 1.33 1.32 1.30 1.28 1.27 1.25 1.23 1.20 1.17 1.11
0.800 1.64 1.58 1.53 1.49 1.46 1.43 1.41 1.38 1.36 1.33 1.30 1.26 1.22 1.14
120 0.500 0.70 0.79 0.84 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.01
0.600 0.92 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.04
0.667 1.11 1.15 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.11 1.10 1.06
0.750 1.40 1.39 1.37 1.35 1.33 1.31 1.30 1.28 1.26 1.24 1.22 1.19 1.16 1.10
0.800 1.63 1.57 1.52 1.48 1.45 1.43 1.41 1.37 1.35 1.32 1.29 1.25 1.21 1.12
∞ 0.500 0.69 0.79 0.84 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00
0.600 0.92 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.00
0.667 1.10 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.12 1.11 1.09 1.07 1.00
0.750 1.39 1.37 1.35 1.33 1.31 1.29 1.28 1.25 1.24 1.22 1.19 1.16 1.13 1.00
0.800 1.61 1.55 1.50 1.46 1.43 1.40 1.38 1.34 1.32 1.29 1.25 1.21 1.16 1.00
138
m\n 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 15 20 30 50 ∞
α
1 0.900 49.5 53.6 55.8 57.2 58.2 59.1 59.7 60.5 61.0 61.5 62.0 62.6 63.0 63.3
0.950 199. 216. 225. 230. 234. 237. 239. 242. 244. 246. 248. 250. 252. 254.
0.975 800. 864. 900. 922. 937. 948. 957. 969. 977. 985. 993.
0.990
0.999
2 0.900 9.00 9.16 9.24 9.29 9.33 9.35 9.37 9.39 9.41 9.43 9.44 9.46 9.47 9.49
0.950 19.0 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.5
0.975 39.0 39.2 39.2 39.3 39.3 39.4 39.4 39.4 39.4 39.4 39.4 39.5 39.5 39.5
0.990 99.0 99.2 99.2 99.3 99.3 99.4 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 99.5
0.999 999. 999.
3 0.900 5.46 5.39 5.34 5.31 5.28 5.27 5.25 5.23 5.22 5.20 5.18 5.17 5.15 5.13
0.950 9.55 9.28 9.12 9.01 8.94 8.89 8.85 8.79 8.74 8.70 8.66 8.62 8.58 8.53
0.975 16.0 15.4 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9
0.990 30.8 29.5 28.7 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.1
0.999 149. 141. 137. 135. 133. 132. 131. 129. 128. 127. 126. 125. 125. 123.
4 0.900 4.32 4.19 4.11 4.05 4.01 3.98 3.95 3.92 3.90 3.87 3.84 3.82 3.79 3.76
0.950 6.94 6.59 6.39 6.26 6.16 6.09 6.04 5.96 5.91 5.86 5.80 5.75 5.70 5.63
0.975 10.6 9.98 9.60 9.36 9.20 9.07 8.98 8.84 8.75 8.66 8.56 8.46 8.38 8.26
0.990 18.0 16.7 16.0 15.5 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.5
0.999 61.2 56.2 53.4 51.7 50.5 49.7 49.0 48.0 47.4 46.8 46.1 45.4 44.9 44.1
5 0.900 3.78 3.62 3.52 3.45 3.40 3.37 3.34 3.30 3.27 3.24 3.21 3.17 3.15 3.10
0.950 5.79 5.41 5.19 5.05 4.95 4.88 4.82 4.74 4.68 4.62 4.56 4.50 4.44 4.36
0.975 8.43 7.76 7.39 7.15 6.98 6.85 6.76 6.62 6.52 6.43 6.33 6.23 6.14 6.02
0.990 13.3 12.1 11.4 11.0 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.1 9.89 9.72 9.55 9.38 9.24 9.02
0.999 37.1 33.2 31.1 29.8 28.8 28.2 27.6 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.4 24.9 24.4 23.8
6 0.900 3.46 3.29 3.18 3.11 3.05 3.01 2.98 2.94 2.90 2.87 2.84 2.80 2.77 2.72
0.950 5.14 4.76 4.53 4.39 4.28 4.21 4.15 4.06 4.00 3.94 3.87 3.81 3.75 3.67
0.975 7.26 6.60 6.23 5.99 5.82 5.70 5.60 5.46 5.37 5.27 5.17 5.07 4.98 4.85
0.990 10.9 9.78 9.15 8.75 8.47 8.26 8.10 7.87 7.72 7.56 7.40 7.23 7.09 6.88
0.999 27.0 23.7 21.9 20.8 20.0 19.5 19.0 18.4 18.0 17.6 17.1 16.7 16.3 15.7
7 0.900 3.26 3.07 2.96 2.88 2.83 2.78 2.75 2.70 2.67 2.63 2.59 2.56 2.52 2.47
0.950 4.74 4.35 4.12 3.97 3.87 3.79 3.73 3.64 3.57 3.51 3.44 3.38 3.32 3.23
0.975 6.54 5.89 5.52 5.29 5.12 4.99 4.90 4.76 4.67 4.57 4.47 4.36 4.28 4.14
0.990 9.55 8.45 7.85 7.46 7.19 6.99 6.84 6.62 6.47 6.31 6.16 5.99 5.86 5.65
0.999 21.7 18.8 17.2 16.2 15.5 15.0 14.6 14.1 13.7 13.3 12.9 12.5 12.2 11.7
8 0.900 3.11 2.92 2.81 2.73 2.67 2.62 2.59 2.54 2.50 2.46 2.42 2.38 2.35 2.29
0.950 4.46 4.07 3.84 3.69 3.58 3.50 3.44 3.35 3.28 3.22 3.15 3.08 3.02 2.93
0.975 6.06 5.42 5.05 4.82 4.65 4.53 4.43 4.29 4.20 4.10 4.00 3.89 3.81 3.67
0.990 8.65 7.59 7.01 6.63 6.37 6.18 6.03 5.81 5.67 5.52 5.36 5.20 5.07 4.86
0.999 18.5 15.8 14.4 13.5 12.9 12.4 12.0 11.5 11.2 10.8 10.5 10.1 9.80 9.33
139
m\n 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 15 20 30 50 ∞
α
9 0.900 3.01 2.81 2.69 2.61 2.55 2.51 2.47 2.42 2.38 2.34 2.30 2.25 2.22 2.16
0.950 4.26 3.86 3.63 3.48 3.37 3.29 3.23 3.14 3.07 3.01 2.94 2.86 2.80 2.71
0.975 5.71 5.08 4.72 4.48 4.32 4.20 4.10 3.96 3.87 3.77 3.67 3.56 3.47 3.33
0.990 8.02 6.99 6.42 6.06 5.80 5.61 5.47 5.26 5.11 4.96 4.81 4.65 4.52 4.31
0.999 16.4 13.9 12.6 11.7 11.1 10.7 10.4 9.89 9.57 9.24 8.90 8.55 8.26 7.81
10 0.900 2.92 2.73 2.61 2.52 2.46 2.41 2.38 2.32 2.28 2.24 2.20 2.16 2.12 2.06
0.950 4.10 3.71 3.48 3.33 3.22 3.14 3.07 2.98 2.91 2.84 2.77 2.70 2.64 2.54
0.975 5.46 4.83 4.47 4.24 4.07 3.95 3.85 3.72 3.62 3.52 3.42 3.31 3.22 3.08
0.990 7.56 6.55 5.99 5.64 5.39 5.20 5.06 4.85 4.71 4.56 4.41 4.25 4.11 3.91
0.999 14.9 12.6 11.3 10.5 9.93 9.52 9.20 8.75 8.45 8.13 7.80 7.47 7.19 6.76
11 0.900 2.86 2.66 2.54 2.45 2.39 2.34 2.30 2.25 2.21 2.17 2.12 2.08 2.04 1.97
0.950 3.98 3.59 3.36 3.20 3.09 3.01 2.95 2.85 2.79 2.72 2.65 2.57 2.51 2.40
0.975 5.26 4.63 4.28 4.04 3.88 3.76 3.66 3.53 3.43 3.33 3.23 3.12 3.03 2.88
0.990 7.21 6.22 5.67 5.32 5.07 4.89 4.74 4.54 4.40 4.25 4.10 3.94 3.81 3.60
0.999 13.8 11.6 10.3 9.58 9.05 8.66 8.35 7.92 7.63 7.32 7.01 6.68 6.42 6.00
12 0.900 2.81 2.61 2.48 2.39 2.33 2.28 2.24 2.19 2.15 2.10 2.06 2.01 1.97 1.90
0.950 3.89 3.49 3.26 3.11 3.00 2.91 2.85 2.75 2.69 2.62 2.54 2.47 2.40 2.30
0.975 5.10 4.47 4.12 3.89 3.73 3.61 3.51 3.37 3.28 3.18 3.07 2.96 2.87 2.72
0.990 6.93 5.95 5.41 5.06 4.82 4.64 4.50 4.30 4.16 4.01 3.86 3.70 3.57 3.36
0.999 13.0 10.8 9.63 8.89 8.38 8.00 7.71 7.29 7.00 6.71 6.40 6.09 5.83 5.42
13 0.900 2.76 2.56 2.43 2.35 2.28 2.23 2.20 2.14 2.10 2.05 2.01 1.96 1.92 1.85
0.950 3.81 3.41 3.18 3.03 2.92 2.83 2.77 2.67 2.60 2.53 2.46 2.38 2.31 2.21
0.975 4.97 4.35 4.00 3.77 3.60 3.48 3.39 3.25 3.15 3.05 2.95 2.84 2.74 2.60
0.990 6.70 5.74 5.21 4.86 4.62 4.44 4.30 4.10 3.96 3.82 3.66 3.51 3.37 3.17
0.999 12.3 10.2 9.07 8.35 7.86 7.49 7.21 6.80 6.52 6.23 5.93 5.63 5.37 4.97
14 0.900 2.73 2.52 2.39 2.31 2.24 2.19 2.15 2.10 2.05 2.01 1.96 1.91 1.87 1.80
0.950 3.74 3.34 3.11 2.96 2.85 2.76 2.70 2.60 2.53 2.46 2.39 2.31 2.24 2.13
0.975 4.86 4.24 3.89 3.66 3.50 3.38 3.29 3.15 3.05 2.95 2.84 2.73 2.64 2.49
0.990 6.51 5.56 5.04 4.69 4.46 4.28 4.14 3.94 3.80 3.66 3.51 3.35 3.22 3.00
0.999 11.8 9.73 8.62 7.92 7.44 7.08 6.80 6.40 6.13 5.85 5.56 5.25 5.00 4.60
15 0.900 2.70 2.49 2.36 2.27 2.21 2.16 2.12 2.06 2.02 1.97 1.92 1.87 1.83 1.76
0.950 3.68 3.29 3.06 2.90 2.79 2.71 2.64 2.54 2.48 2.40 2.33 2.25 2.18 2.07
0.975 4.77 4.15 3.80 3.58 3.41 3.29 3.20 3.06 2.96 2.86 2.76 2.64 2.55 2.40
0.990 6.36 5.42 4.89 4.56 4.32 4.14 4.00 3.80 3.67 3.52 3.37 3.21 3.08 2.87
0.999 11.3 9.34 8.25 7.57 7.09 6.74 6.47 6.08 5.81 5.53 5.25 4.95 4.70 4.31
16 0.900 2.67 2.46 2.33 2.24 2.18 2.13 2.09 2.03 1.99 1.94 1.89 1.84 1.79 1.72
0.950 3.63 3.24 3.01 2.85 2.74 2.66 2.59 2.49 2.42 2.35 2.28 2.19 2.12 2.01
0.975 4.69 4.08 3.73 3.50 3.34 3.22 3.12 2.99 2.89 2.79 2.68 2.57 2.47 2.32
0.990 6.23 5.29 4.77 4.44 4.20 4.03 3.89 3.69 3.55 3.41 3.26 3.10 2.97 2.75
0.999 11.0 9.01 7.94 7.27 6.80 6.46 6.19 5.81 5.55 5.27 4.99 4.70 4.45 4.06
17 0.900 2.64 2.44 2.31 2.22 2.15 2.10 2.06 2.00 1.96 1.91 1.86 1.81 1.76 1.69
0.950 3.59 3.20 2.96 2.81 2.70 2.61 2.55 2.45 2.38 2.31 2.23 2.15 2.08 1.96
0.975 4.62 4.01 3.66 3.44 3.28 3.16 3.06 2.92 2.82 2.72 2.62 2.50 2.41 2.25
0.990 6.11 5.18 4.67 4.34 4.10 3.93 3.79 3.59 3.46 3.31 3.16 3.00 2.87 2.65
0.999 10.7 8.73 7.68 7.02 6.56 6.22 5.96 5.58 5.32 5.05 4.77 4.48 4.24 3.85
140
m\n 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 15 20 30 50 ∞
α
18 0.900 2.62 2.42 2.29 2.20 2.13 2.08 2.04 1.98 1.93 1.89 1.84 1.78 1.74 1.66
0.950 3.55 3.16 2.93 2.77 2.66 2.58 2.51 2.41 2.34 2.27 2.19 2.11 2.04 1.92
0.975 4.56 3.95 3.61 3.38 3.22 3.10 3.01 2.87 2.77 2.67 2.56 2.44 2.35 2.19
0.990 6.01 5.09 4.58 4.25 4.01 3.84 3.71 3.51 3.37 3.23 3.08 2.92 2.78 2.57
0.999 10.4 8.49 7.46 6.81 6.35 6.02 5.76 5.39 5.13 4.87 4.59 4.30 4.06 3.67
19 0.900 2.61 2.40 2.27 2.18 2.11 2.06 2.02 1.96 1.91 1.86 1.81 1.76 1.71 1.63
0.950 3.52 3.13 2.90 2.74 2.63 2.54 2.48 2.38 2.31 2.23 2.16 2.07 2.00 1.88
0.975 4.51 3.90 3.56 3.33 3.17 3.05 2.96 2.82 2.72 2.62 2.51 2.39 2.30 2.13
0.990 5.93 5.01 4.50 4.17 3.94 3.77 3.63 3.43 3.30 3.15 3.00 2.84 2.71 2.49
0.999 10.2 8.28 7.27 6.62 6.18 5.85 5.59 5.22 4.97 4.70 4.43 4.14 3.90 3.51
20 0.900 2.59 2.38 2.25 2.16 2.09 2.04 2.00 1.94 1.89 1.84 1.79 1.74 1.69 1.61
0.950 3.49 3.10 2.87 2.71 2.60 2.51 2.45 2.35 2.28 2.20 2.12 2.04 1.97 1.84
0.975 4.46 3.86 3.51 3.29 3.13 3.01 2.91 2.77 2.68 2.57 2.46 2.35 2.25 2.09
0.990 5.85 4.94 4.43 4.10 3.87 3.70 3.56 3.37 3.23 3.09 2.94 2.78 2.64 2.42
0.999 9.95 8.10 7.10 6.46 6.02 5.69 5.44 5.08 4.82 4.56 4.29 4.00 3.76 3.38
21 0.900 2.57 2.36 2.23 2.14 2.08 2.02 1.98 1.92 1.87 1.83 1.78 1.72 1.67 1.59
0.950 3.47 3.07 2.84 2.68 2.57 2.49 2.42 2.32 2.25 2.18 2.10 2.01 1.94 1.81
0.975 4.42 3.82 3.48 3.25 3.09 2.97 2.87 2.73 2.64 2.53 2.42 2.31 2.21 2.04
0.990 5.78 4.87 4.37 4.04 3.81 3.64 3.51 3.31 3.17 3.03 2.88 2.72 2.58 2.36
0.999 9.77 7.94 6.95 6.32 5.88 5.56 5.31 4.95 4.70 4.44 4.17 3.88 3.64 3.26
22 0.900 2.56 2.35 2.22 2.13 2.06 2.01 1.97 1.90 1.86 1.81 1.76 1.70 1.65 1.57
0.950 3.44 3.05 2.82 2.66 2.55 2.46 2.40 2.30 2.23 2.15 2.07 1.98 1.91 1.78
0.975 4.38 3.78 3.44 3.22 3.05 2.93 2.84 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.39 2.27 2.17 2.00
0.990 5.72 4.82 4.31 3.99 3.76 3.59 3.45 3.26 3.12 2.98 2.83 2.67 2.53 2.31
0.999 9.61 7.80 6.81 6.19 5.76 5.44 5.19 4.83 4.58 4.33 4.06 3.78 3.54 3.15
23 0.900 2.55 2.34 2.21 2.11 2.05 1.99 1.95 1.89 1.84 1.80 1.74 1.69 1.64 1.55
0.950 3.42 3.03 2.80 2.64 2.53 2.44 2.37 2.27 2.20 2.13 2.05 1.96 1.88 1.76
0.975 4.35 3.75 3.41 3.18 3.02 2.90 2.81 2.67 2.57 2.47 2.36 2.24 2.14 1.97
0.990 5.66 4.76 4.26 3.94 3.71 3.54 3.41 3.21 3.07 2.93 2.78 2.62 2.48 2.26
0.999 9.47 7.67 6.70 6.08 5.65 5.33 5.09 4.73 4.48 4.23 3.96 3.68 3.44 3.05
24 0.900 2.54 2.33 2.19 2.10 2.04 1.98 1.94 1.88 1.83 1.78 1.73 1.67 1.62 1.53
0.950 3.40 3.01 2.78 2.62 2.51 2.42 2.36 2.25 2.18 2.11 2.03 1.94 1.86 1.73
0.975 4.32 3.72 3.38 3.15 2.99 2.87 2.78 2.64 2.54 2.44 2.33 2.21 2.11 1.94
0.990 5.61 4.72 4.22 3.90 3.67 3.50 3.36 3.17 3.03 2.89 2.74 2.58 2.44 2.21
0.999 9.34 7.55 6.59 5.98 5.55 5.23 4.99 4.64 4.39 4.14 3.87 3.59 3.36 2.97
25 0.900 2.53 2.32 2.18 2.09 2.02 1.97 1.93 1.87 1.82 1.77 1.72 1.66 1.61 1.52
0.950 3.39 2.99 2.76 2.60 2.49 2.40 2.34 2.24 2.16 2.09 2.01 1.92 1.84 1.71
0.975 4.29 3.69 3.35 3.13 2.97 2.85 2.75 2.61 2.51 2.41 2.30 2.18 2.08 1.91
0.990 5.57 4.68 4.18 3.85 3.63 3.46 3.32 3.13 2.99 2.85 2.70 2.54 2.40 2.17
0.999 9.22 7.45 6.49 5.89 5.46 5.15 4.91 4.56 4.31 4.06 3.79 3.52 3.28 2.89
26 0.900 2.52 2.31 2.17 2.08 2.01 1.96 1.92 1.86 1.81 1.76 1.71 1.65 1.59 1.50
0.950 3.37 2.98 2.74 2.59 2.47 2.39 2.32 2.22 2.15 2.07 1.99 1.90 1.82 1.69
0.975 4.27 3.67 3.33 3.10 2.94 2.82 2.73 2.59 2.49 2.39 2.28 2.16 2.05 1.88
0.990 5.53 4.64 4.14 3.82 3.59 3.42 3.29 3.09 2.96 2.81 2.66 2.50 2.36 2.13
0.999 9.12 7.36 6.41 5.80 5.38 5.07 4.83 4.48 4.24 3.99 3.72 3.44 3.21 2.82
141
m\n 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 15 20 30 50 ∞
α
27 0.900 2.51 2.30 2.17 2.07 2.00 1.95 1.91 1.85 1.80 1.75 1.70 1.64 1.58 1.49
0.950 3.35 2.96 2.73 2.57 2.46 2.37 2.31 2.20 2.13 2.06 1.97 1.88 1.81 1.67
0.975 4.24 3.65 3.31 3.08 2.92 2.80 2.71 2.57 2.47 2.36 2.25 2.13 2.03 1.85
0.990 5.49 4.60 4.11 3.78 3.56 3.39 3.26 3.06 2.93 2.78 2.63 2.47 2.33 2.10
0.999 9.02 7.27 6.33 5.73 5.31 5.00 4.76 4.41 4.17 3.92 3.66 3.38 3.14 2.75
28 0.900 2.50 2.29 2.16 2.06 2.00 1.94 1.90 1.84 1.79 1.74 1.69 1.63 1.57 1.48
0.950 3.34 2.95 2.71 2.56 2.45 2.36 2.29 2.19 2.12 2.04 1.96 1.87 1.79 1.65
0.975 4.22 3.63 3.29 3.06 2.90 2.78 2.69 2.55 2.45 2.34 2.23 2.11 2.01 1.83
0.990 5.45 4.57 4.07 3.75 3.53 3.36 3.23 3.03 2.90 2.75 2.60 2.44 2.30 2.06
0.999 8.93 7.19 6.25 5.66 5.24 4.93 4.69 4.35 4.11 3.86 3.60 3.32 3.09 2.69
29 0.900 2.50 2.28 2.15 2.06 1.99 1.93 1.89 1.83 1.78 1.73 1.68 1.62 1.56 1.47
0.950 3.33 2.93 2.70 2.55 2.43 2.35 2.28 2.18 2.10 2.03 1.94 1.85 1.77 1.64
0.975 4.20 3.61 3.27 3.04 2.88 2.76 2.67 2.53 2.43 2.32 2.21 2.09 1.99 1.81
0.990 5.42 4.54 4.04 3.73 3.50 3.33 3.20 3.00 2.87 2.73 2.57 2.41 2.27 2.03
0.999 8.85 7.12 6.19 5.59 5.18 4.87 4.64 4.29 4.05 3.80 3.54 3.27 3.03 2.64
30 0.900 2.49 2.28 2.14 2.05 1.98 1.93 1.88 1.82 1.77 1.72 1.67 1.61 1.55 1.46
0.950 3.32 2.92 2.69 2.53 2.42 2.33 2.27 2.16 2.09 2.01 1.93 1.84 1.76 1.62
0.975 4.18 3.59 3.25 3.03 2.87 2.75 2.65 2.51 2.41 2.31 2.20 2.07 1.97 1.79
0.990 5.39 4.51 4.02 3.70 3.47 3.30 3.17 2.98 2.84 2.70 2.55 2.39 2.25 2.01
0.999 8.77 7.05 6.12 5.53 5.12 4.82 4.58 4.24 4.00 3.75 3.49 3.22 2.98 2.59
60 0.900 2.39 2.18 2.04 1.95 1.87 1.82 1.77 1.71 1.66 1.60 1.54 1.48 1.41 1.29
0.950 3.15 2.76 2.53 2.37 2.25 2.17 2.10 1.99 1.92 1.84 1.75 1.65 1.56 1.39
0.975 3.93 3.34 3.01 2.79 2.63 2.51 2.41 2.27 2.17 2.06 1.94 1.82 1.70 1.48
0.990 4.98 4.13 3.65 3.34 3.12 2.95 2.82 2.63 2.50 2.35 2.20 2.03 1.88 1.60
0.999 7.77 6.17 5.31 4.76 4.37 4.09 3.86 3.54 3.32 3.08 2.83 2.55 2.32 1.89
80 0.900 2.37 2.15 2.02 1.92 1.85 1.79 1.75 1.68 1.63 1.57 1.51 1.44 1.38 1.24
0.950 3.11 2.72 2.49 2.33 2.21 2.13 2.06 1.95 1.88 1.79 1.70 1.60 1.51 1.32
0.975 3.86 3.28 2.95 2.73 2.57 2.45 2.35 2.21 2.11 2.00 1.88 1.75 1.63 1.40
0.990 4.88 4.04 3.56 3.26 3.04 2.87 2.74 2.55 2.42 2.27 2.12 1.94 1.79 1.49
0.999 7.54 5.97 5.12 4.58 4.20 3.92 3.70 3.39 3.16 2.93 2.68 2.41 2.16 1.72
100 0.900 2.36 2.14 2.00 1.91 1.83 1.78 1.73 1.66 1.61 1.56 1.49 1.42 1.35 1.21
0.950 3.09 2.70 2.46 2.31 2.19 2.10 2.03 1.93 1.85 1.77 1.68 1.57 1.48 1.28
0.975 3.83 3.25 2.92 2.70 2.54 2.42 2.32 2.18 2.08 1.97 1.85 1.71 1.59 1.35
0.990 4.82 3.98 3.51 3.21 2.99 2.82 2.69 2.50 2.37 2.22 2.07 1.89 1.74 1.43
0.999 7.41 5.86 5.02 4.48 4.11 3.83 3.61 3.30 3.07 2.84 2.59 2.32 2.08 1.62
120 0.900 2.35 2.13 1.99 1.90 1.82 1.77 1.72 1.65 1.60 1.54 1.48 1.41 1.34 1.19
0.950 3.07 2.68 2.45 2.29 2.18 2.09 2.02 1.91 1.83 1.75 1.66 1.55 1.46 1.25
0.975 3.80 3.23 2.89 2.67 2.52 2.39 2.30 2.16 2.05 1.94 1.82 1.69 1.56 1.31
0.990 4.79 3.95 3.48 3.17 2.96 2.79 2.66 2.47 2.34 2.19 2.03 1.86 1.70 1.38
0.999 7.32 5.78 4.95 4.42 4.04 3.77 3.55 3.24 3.02 2.78 2.53 2.26 2.02 1.54
∞ 0.900 2.30 2.08 1.94 1.85 1.77 1.72 1.67 1.60 1.55 1.49 1.42 1.34 1.26 1.00
0.950 3.00 2.60 2.37 2.21 2.10 2.01 1.94 1.83 1.75 1.67 1.57 1.46 1.35 1.00
0.975 3.69 3.12 2.79 2.57 2.41 2.29 2.19 2.05 1.94 1.83 1.71 1.57 1.43 1.00
0.990 4.61 3.78 3.32 3.02 2.80 2.64 2.51 2.32 2.18 2.04 1.88 1.70 1.52 1.00
0.999 6.91 5.42 4.62 4.10 3.74 3.47 3.27 2.96 2.74 2.51 2.27 1.99 1.73 1.00
142
Ïðèëîæåíèå 9
Òàáëèöà êâàíòèëåé ñòàòèñòèêè
Âèëêîêñîíà
m n 0.005 0.010 0.025 0.050 0.100 0.200 m(n + m + 1)
4 4 . . 10 11 13 14 36
4 5 . 10 11 12 14 15 40
4 6 10 11 12 13 15 17 44
4 7 10 11 13 14 16 18 48
4 8 11 12 14 15 17 20 52
4 9 11 13 14 16 19 21 56
4 10 12 13 15 17 20 23 60
4 11 12 14 16 18 21 24 64
4 12 13 15 17 19 22 26 68
5 5 15 16 17 19 20 22 55
5 6 16 17 18 20 22 24 60
5 7 16 18 20 21 23 26 65
5 8 17 19 21 23 25 28 70
5 9 18 20 22 24 27 30 75
5 10 19 21 23 26 28 32 80
5 11 20 22 24 27 30 34 85
5 12 21 23 26 28 32 36 90
6 6 23 24 26 28 30 33 78
6 7 24 25 27 29 32 35 84
6 8 25 27 29 31 34 37 90
6 9 26 28 31 33 36 40 96
6 10 27 29 32 35 38 42 102
6 11 28 30 34 37 40 44 108
6 12 30 32 35 38 42 47 114
7 7 32 34 36 39 41 45 105
7 8 34 35 38 41 44 48 112
7 9 35 37 40 43 46 50 119
7 10 37 39 42 45 49 53 126
7 11 38 40 44 47 51 56 133
7 12 40 42 46 49 54 59 140
8 8 43 45 49 51 55 59 136
8 9 45 47 51 54 58 62 144
8 10 47 49 53 56 60 65 152
8 11 49 51 55 59 63 69 160
8 12 51 53 58 62 66 72 168
9 9 56 59 62 66 70 75 171
9 10 58 61 65 69 73 78 180
9 11 61 63 68 72 76 82 189
9 12 63 66 71 75 80 86 198
10 10 71 74 78 82 87 93 210
10 11 73 77 81 86 91 97 220
10 12 76 79 84 89 94 101 230
11 11 87 91 96 100 106 112 253
11 12 90 94 99 104 110 117 264
12 12 105 109 115 120 127 134 300
143
Ëèòåðàòóðà
144
12. Ãåéë Ä. Òåîðèÿ ëèíåéíûõ ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ ìîäåëåé. Ì.:
ÈË, 1963.
145
26. Íåâçîðîâ Â. Á. Ðåêîðäû. Ìàòåìàòè÷åñêàÿ òåîðèÿ. Ì.: ÔÀ-
ÇÈÑ Ñòîõàñòèêà, 2000.
146
40. Berndt E., Hall B., Hall R., Hausman J. Estimation and
Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models. Annals of Economic
and Social Measurement, 1974, Vol. 3, pp. 653665.
50. Kay R., Little S. Assessing the Fit of the Logistic Model: A
Case Study of Children with Haemolytic Uraemic Syndrome.
Applied Statistics, 1986, Vol. 35, pp. 1630.
147
53. MacFadden D. The Measurement of Urban Travel Demand.
Journal of Public Economics, 1978, Vol. 3, pp. 303328.
148
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